Overcoming Season-long Second Quarter Woes a Key to Victory
If the Green Bay Packers want to point to a measure of their game that heavily contributed to their six losses, they need only look to the puzzling ineptitude of their second quarter performances.
By pointerjeff
If the Green Bay Packers want to point to a measure of their game that heavily contributed to their six losses, they need only look to the puzzling ineptitude of their second-quarter performances.
First let’s give them credit. The 2015 version of the Green Bay Packers cobbled together a 10-win season and the right to participate in the playoffs for a seventh straight year. The Packers and the New England Patriots are the only teams that can boast such an accomplishment. No other current team can claim even six-in-a-row.
Although Packers fans may not feel like their team has much going right lately, there is a lot of good to say about making the playoffs. It isn’t easy. Compare the playoff streak of the Packers’ opponent this coming week, the Washington Redskins, who have only one. That is the same mark as the Minnesota Vikings who just defeated the Packers this past week to claim the NFC North title. Their fans are giddy at the prospect of any post-season play after years of dismal results.
The 486-points scored by the 2014 Packers offense was ranked number-one in the league. Their point differential (total points for vs. total points against) was the league’s third best mark. That high-octane squad scored an average of 7.2 points per quarter. The 2015 team scored 368 points, an average of 5.75 per quarter. Their point differential fell to ninth-best in the league – well behind powerhouses Seattle, Carolina and New England.
The head-scratcher is the epic failure to carry any offensive momentum from a fast start in the first-quarter, where they rank second-best overall, into quarter number-two where they rank dead last.
Packers by Qtr. Points by Quarter League Rank
First 6.6 2
Second 3.5 32
Third 5.4 10
Fourth 7.5 7
Average 5.75 15
The troubling first half stats, especially quarter two, have been particularly alarming the past three games where their first quarter scoring has fallen to 5.7 points on average. Their second quarter is even worse having produced zero-points over that same stretch of time.
This week’s opponent the Washington Redskins are known for their strong starts. They have dominated the first half in time-of-possession by posting 55.78% in quarter-one and 54.7% in the second quarter. The Redskins first-half TOP of 55.1% leads the league. The Redskins offense has been on a tear the past three games where their first quarter scoring offense is averaging 13.7 points, by far the best mark in the NFL.
Redskins by Qtr. Points by Quarter League Rank
First 6.4 3
Second 6.9 17
Third 3.8 22
Fourth 7.2 11
Average 5.97 9
The challenge will be for the Packers offense to overcome their second-quarter funk if they wish to beat Washington and advance. In addition to the second-quarter offensive struggles, the Packers scoring defense was a mediocre 18th averaging 7.6 points surrendered. The obstacle may become even tougher this week as the Redskins defense was fifth-best league-wide in the second quarter yielding just 5.2 points on average.
If your impression is that the Packers have started and closed out games strong you are right. Both the offense and defense did their part. The defense ranked 7th in points allowed in quarter one – in points scored the offense was 2nd. In quarter four the offense ranked 7th and the defense was 1st.
The conclusion is elementary: the Green Bay Packers have to overcome their season-long mid-game ineptitude in order to win and advance. They simply cannot crash after the first quarter or wait until the fourth-quarter to try and pull out a win.
In Green Bay the expectations are high and qualifying for a wildcard isn’t part of the game plan. The bar is set much higher than merely making the playoffs. Titles are what counts in Titletown.
Last years’ Packers squad was just four minutes away from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year they are limping into post-season play as the number five seed. By Sunday night we will know if they have finally shaken off the season-long problems to become the team we thought they were or continue their funk by joining the brethern of the other 23 elimated teams sitting at home and watching it all on TV.
Comments (37)
croatpackfan
January 08, 2016 at 06:39 am
Nice article Jeff. I, also, noticed that strange 2nd and somewhat 3rd Q struggles to score points (3rd is little better than 2nd). Whatever the reason is for that strange dispersion of the achieving points it looks like that is the main thing Packers needs to improve. Past seasons Packers were known as team who was 1st half killer of the opponents, now we have team which is runner to survive...
Maybe it has something with attitude. While first half seems to give enough time to try to do to much, when rush hours comes, team starts to play more automatic, therefore all the parts fall to the right places, as team starts to execute what is trained.
Hopefully, that automatic plays will be dominate ones at Washington this Sunday!
Bearmeat
January 08, 2016 at 07:34 am
I have no faith that this offense will figure out a darn thing. The last season as frustrating as this on the offensive side of the ball was 1999, which by the way was also the last season that the Packers underachieved so badly (I am excusing the 2008 season as that year basically didn't have a training camp with the Favre-a-palooza).
The last Packers passing game that was as bad as this passing game was in 1991. Yes, Nineteen-Ninety-Fricken-One. Under Don Majkowski and Lindy Infante. Let that sink in. This offense has NO business being this bad with a HOF QB under center. Everyone involved is responsible. Pathetic. Just pathetic.
If this team is going to win in the playoffs, it's going to be on the defense and special teams. Who'd have thunk that at the beginning of the year?
Bottom line: even against a faux-good team like the Redskins, I do not expect to win. I am not even interested in the player and unit match ups - which is very unusual for me. It just hasn't seemed to matter for this team. They should have stomped the Vikings, Lions and Bears at home, and yet they didn't. They choked. So I will be rooting for a win this Sunday, but I would not be surprised in the least if they lose.
Go anyone but Washington (assuming they lose), Minny, Seattle and New England. Oh and Pittsburgh too. I want GB to have won the most super bowls at some point, so I have to root against the team with the most currently.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2016 at 08:28 am
Bearmeat, I feared you were going to have a complete meltdown on CHTV blog during the MN game. The MN was a winnable game, as is Washington, so take preventive action. Avoid excessive alcohol, drugs with a depressive effect, and don't watch the game alone! Make sure you have a life line available - human contact is a good idea while watching this game, or put out pictures of your children, grandchildren, significant other, and other loved ones! [JK]
Bearmeat
January 08, 2016 at 10:23 am
Yeah. My 14 month old daughter helps a great deal with that. It still sucks, but it's just a football game. There are much more important things.
Tundraboy
January 08, 2016 at 01:02 pm
" I am not even interested in the player and unit match ups - which is very unusual for me"
So true. That is exactly how I feel. So many games that should never have been close they ended up losing. Games like Thanksgiving, and to a lesser degree the last, where one could not even conceive that they would not play at their best, or would not come out on fire with so much at stake. I mean losing to the Bears and with Bart Starr as frail as he is!. Being embarrassed by the Cardinals.
So here we are it's playoff time. It's time to show some heart and pride. I think they will for all our sakes. But there's the rub I only "think" that. Who would have ever thought that's where we would be the year. Go Pack Go
Bearmeat
January 08, 2016 at 01:19 pm
See.... I just have lost faith in this offense. I don't think they'll show heart. I think it will be another frustrating, galling, annoying loss. :(
MCM
January 08, 2016 at 07:04 pm
You're arguing with a person who frequently comments on a packers website and tries to imitate Donald Trump. I think you're living the better life regardless of your situation.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2016 at 08:20 pm
Bearmeat, I am sorry for subjecting you to the responses above after I joked about your dispiritedness. I am happy to hear you have found a new position - I did not know you had any issues in that regard.
I usually go the opposing teams website to check out their team, but I, too, have had trouble motivating myself to do this. In part it is because I do not know who is going to play on the OL or where, not sure who our WRs will be (hoping we see different WRs playing), not sure who our CBs are going to be, so checking the match ups seems like a waste of time. Anyway, go pack go!
dobber
January 09, 2016 at 01:42 pm
I think the sad thing is that even if the Packers jump up and bite Washington--even if they bash their red-helmeted skulls in--none of us has faith that this team will go any further than that.
dobber
January 08, 2016 at 07:40 am
If the Packers jump out to a fast start...say 17 points in the first quarter (do I hear someone laughing?), I don't mind if they only get 3 in the second, they just can't post 0's later on.
With this team, I don't care where the points come from or when, just so long as they have enough at the end to post a W. That's when the number of points scored matters.
ray nichkee
January 08, 2016 at 10:57 am
Im not the disliker dobber but i actually want to see alot more scoring in the first half. I want to see them move the ball with success instead of all that crap we've been seeing. It would mean alot to see the ball being ran consistently and not hanging on to the scripted plays well into the second quarter because of 3 and outs. Attack. More no huddle, not all game but keep the defense on it's heels. I want to see them run the ball in the 4th quarter with a lead and kill the clock.
Razer
January 08, 2016 at 07:54 am
My question is: If we win the toss, do we start our defense or offense?
Despite our sputter, I am going put the offense on the field first and pound some ball at the Skins. For some strange reason, I have faith in Kuhn and company. That, and I want to challenge them to lead the charge.
RCPackerFan
January 08, 2016 at 07:55 am
I brought this up a while ago, that their 2nd quarter has been horrible. While their 2nd quarter has been horrible, their 4th quarter has been great almost all season. This isn't just because teams play differently either. There was only 2-3 games that the defense may have changed the way they were playing. They were trailing by more then 7 points going into the 4th quarter in 4 games all year. All of which were after the bye.
What is really crazy is when you look at the drastic change they have had before the bye week and since the bye week.
Before the bye, the Packers were averaging 11 points in the 1st quarter, while giving up 1.5 points. 2nd Quarter they averaged 3.1 in the 2nd and gave up 6.1. 3rd Quarter they averaged 6.8 in the 3rd and gave up 5.1. 4th Quarter they averaged 6.3 in the 4th and gave up 4.
Since the bye they have averaged 4 in the 1st, giving up 3.6. Scoring 3.7 in the 2nd, giving up 8.4. Scoring 4.5 in the 3rd, giving up 7.8. Scoring 8.2 in the 4th, and giving up 2.4.
What is crazy is when you look at total points per quarter and the difference between what they have scored versus what they have allowed is crazy per quarter.
In the 1st Quarter Packers scored 106 points while giving up 45 points. 2nd quarter they scored 56 points and gave up 121. 3rd quarter they scored 86 and gave up 109. 4th quarter they scored 120 and gave up 48.
The numbers don't lie. The biggest difference between this team is before the bye week they were scoring a lot of points in the 1st quarter. Since then, they haven't.
Before the bye they scored 66 points in the 1st quarter (6 games). Since they bye they have scored 40 points in the 1st quarter (10 games). Before the bye they scored at least 7 points in every game. Since the bye they have been shut out in 4 games and scored less then 7 points in 7 of their 10 games.
Compound that with them being terrible in the 2nd quarter, is what has caused this team to get behind early in games.
The Summary of the year. The biggest difference in this team is before the bye they averaged 11 points in the 1st quarter after the bye 4 points. Huge difference. 2nd quarter has been terrible all year, averaging 3.5 points all year. 3rd quarter has been about the same all year averaging 6.8 points. But the 4th Quarter has been great, and actually got better since the bye week.
As coach McCarthy likes to say, Stats are for losers. Well these stats are pretty telling.
Since'61
January 08, 2016 at 08:21 am
These numbers, like all of the offensive numbers this season, tell us that this team has been inconsistent on offense. Consistency is a matter of execution and execution is a matter of the quality of players on the field. Our players on offense have been hurt for most of the season starting with Jordy Nelson. Couple that with defenses jamming our not very good WRs off the LOS, playing 8 in the box, and keeping Rodgers in the pocket, dropped passes and here we are. If our OL can get back on the field in their correct positions and reasonably healthy we should be OK for this game. If Bakh is still down and we go patchwork again I would expect similar results to the last few weeks. It's time to find a way. Go Pack! Thanks, Since '61
Gianich
January 08, 2016 at 08:42 am
18 players on the injury report with now Randall added to the list! Going vs the healthiest team in the playoffs!! Should be freakin great!! WTF kind of concussion does Shields have??? How can you pass protocol and practice and then fail protocol and be out again???
Since'61
January 08, 2016 at 11:08 am
Duke - careers have been ended due to concussion in juries, especially when a player has had multiple concussions as Shields has had. Thanks, Since '61
Gianich
January 08, 2016 at 11:16 am
I understand that. What i dont understand is how you can be cleared to practice and then have the rug pulled out and shut down again. I hope he plays. The speed and double moves that JAckson will do on the outside will eat Randall alive especially with his groin. Our safeties are not fast enough to help over the top on JAckson and I predict a big play TD or 2 from Jackson if shields cant go.
RCPackerFan
January 08, 2016 at 11:29 am
I really don't get that either.
First how was he able to practice if he was in the concussion protocol?
I get it that injuries are different. But how is it that, a player goes from being in the protocol, to practicing back to the protocol?
Unless he suffered another concussion while practicing, it doesn't make sense to me.
dobber
January 08, 2016 at 12:35 pm
As I understand, there are some football activities that are allowed while one is going through the protocol. Many times, as players start doing things, they have residual effects: dizzyness, migranes, etc. that come from activity. I suspect that's what's happening here.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2016 at 08:50 am
GB scores 3.5 points in the 2nd quarter. I note that Washington is bad (3.8 points scored) in the 3rd quarter. I can't help but wonder if most teams don't have a poor quarter, both offensively and in terms of points given up. RC's stats above show that GB scored 3.1 points in the 2nd quarter before the bye, and 3.7 points in the 2nd quarter after the bye, an improvement of about 20%. I certainly can't think of any reason for this improvement.
brewers_rule
January 08, 2016 at 09:08 am
I'll probably get crucified by this but I've noticed the 'lol' that seems to be accompanying anyone mentioning Chip Kelly's name associated with a Packer hiring. Before you throw tomatoes at me, hear me out.
We've seen head coaches like Kelly that overreach their first run get busted down by the job market to coordinator level & then return to the spotlight at a later date. Look at McDaniels now being looked at for the Titans job favorably after his Denver disaster. Or Marrone being OL coach in Jacksonville after his horrid Buffalo affair now being looked at by the analytical folks in charge in Cleveland? Even Todd Haley's getting a look after the job he's done in Pittsburgh after his Arizona flop.
Given Kelly's rep, it would really surprise me if he gets a head coaching gig this offseason when guys like Gase, Jackson, & Shula will be out there. That means either go back to college which doesn't look even possible given those jobs are all filled now. Or, taking a year off somehow which I suppose is possible but given his personality he seems to always want to be doing something. Or, taking a good OC job somewhere.
With the disarray in the OC ranks this year, coupled with the need for an innovative mind to corral the talent we DO believe we'll have for 2016, is it such a stretch to say Kelly COULD be a good fit in GB as OC? He put together great offenses w/Nick freakin' Foles & Mark Sanchez in Philly. Imagine what he could do w/Nelson/Cobb/Lacy/Rodgers. He wouldn't have personnel say so he would, using the Parcells vernacular, be the guy asked to cook a great meal with the ingredients he's been given. And we all know that MM's looked to Kelly's schemes for innovation before so it stands to think they could work together beautifully if Kelly's humbled like that.
Probably a pipe dream I'll be laughed at but I really think it could provide some new looks that could energize this team, rebuild reputations on both sides of the aisle, AND get us back to a Super Bowl charge starting in training camp for 2016.
Bohj
January 08, 2016 at 10:27 am
It's not a laughable proposal Brewer. However, the fit isn't quite right. Chip was incredible at Oregon because of the spread n shred and read option. The premise is that your quarterback is mobile and always poses a threat to run because then you have to always commit an extra defender in the box to account for the QB. It's purely a game of numbers. This gets more athletes out in space with less secondary defenders. It's a beautiful offense when you run it effectively and fast, because the defense never seems to adjust.
Defensive ends get burned often because they overcommit to the QB or Running back and the QB simply has to read which one he commits to and tuck it or hand it off. And if you commit the extra defender to get both, then you throw.
Our QB does not fit the mould though. Nor would we want him too. It's why Bradford and Foles and Sanchez didn't fit either. It's also why there was so much talk about Eagles putting all chips in to get Mariotta. Rg3 or Kaep would be perfect to run Kelly's system. Maybe even Manziel. I would like to see Kelly get a chance as an OC in the league. But with the right QB. He hasn't had that chance yet.
brewers_rule
January 08, 2016 at 10:56 am
I guess my thinking is that if he can get that kind of production out of the QB's you mentioned who, I'd say anyway, are FAR less mobile than Rogers, why wouldn't it amp up this offense to try? Rodgers is running for his life now anyway, right? The Packer offense is designed to get guys in space and we have 2 very good RB's that could threaten in a system like that where they'd get a lot more touches. If Mike got in Chip's ear to sprinkle in some more traditional West Coast looks and/or protections for Rodgers, when coupled with our talent that clearly dwarfs anything Chip had even before the trades in Philly, wouldn't it take off?
My thinking is that even if we cleared the kitchen of all the offensive cooks out there and then hired an OC, what positional guy out there right now that is not being considered a favorite for a HC spot he's likely to get, is a guy that could inject real life into this system beyond Kelly? Jackson (unclear yet), McAdoo (NYG/PHI), Shula (TBD), Koetter (TB), Gase (MIA etc), and McDaniels (Tenn) are all leading candidates for HC spots or wouldn't do a lateral move that'd require. You're looking at either fired coaches or elevating a RB/WR/QB coach from elsewhere, right? Only place I can see wanting to take someone from is AZ or Pittsburgh's staff like that. John McNulty or Mike Munchak maybe?
J0hn Denver's Gavel
January 08, 2016 at 11:06 am
Well said, Bohj
dobber
January 08, 2016 at 12:39 pm
" I really think it could provide some new looks that could energize this team, rebuild reputations on both sides of the aisle..."
This is the key sentiment, though: fresh coaching blood in the organization. Someone in the higher ranks (not an assistant position coach) who is not already so immersed in the scheme and process that they don't really have original ideas to bring to the table. In our industry, this is how you grow and get better: you find up-and-comers on the outside, and bring them in to help you to assess what you do and how you do it, and how to do it better, with a fresh pair of eyes. It doesn't have to be Chip Kelly.
This is the idea that brewers_rule puts forward that I really like.
Ibleedgreenmore
January 08, 2016 at 09:53 am
I watched several of last year and year before highlights. There is little confidence with the offense, sad to see it seems Rogers is scared out there.
GVPacker
January 08, 2016 at 10:50 am
Like to see McCarthy insert J Peppers in the red zone offense. He's got good hands and he's a former BB player. Our tight ends suck the meat pipe! Think outside the box coach. You did it last year against the Saints .
RCPackerFan
January 08, 2016 at 11:26 am
Honestly, I would like to see McCarthy insert all of his offensive weapons in the game.
I want to see everyone play, and everyone used in different ways, and use them to their strengths.
Janis - Use to run go routes, a bubble screen pass to him and have him run a reverse/jet sweep. Get the ball into your fastest players hands at least 1 time on offense.
Abbrederis - Use him in the slot in 4 WR sets.
Ripkowski - Use him in the backfield with Kuhn. Create a different look. 2 FB's. You can create some really good misdirection with 2 FB's being used. Also use him in the passing game on a dump off pass as well.
Crockett - Use his speed, fresh legs and energy to give the offense a spark.
Backman - Bring him in on a 3 TE set. Have him run that pass out to the flat that they have Rodgers run, and see if he can use his speed to make a play that Rodgers can't.
The thing that frustrates me with McCarthy is he is to systematic. It feels like everything has to be done a certain way, and he can't go outside of 'the rules' to make it work. He just doesn't seem willing to adjust his offense to use what he has. He wants what he has to run his offense, and he will just go with the best players available.
Normally I agree with the play the best players available. But in this case is there that big of a drop off from Adams to Janis? Or Quarless to Backman, or Starks to Crockett? The biggest difference is in experience.. I know I'm not at practice to see what happens. So why not devise a game plan to use all their strengths? Also by using multiple players it will be tougher on defenses to get into a rhythm of what the offense is doing.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2016 at 08:29 pm
RC, I like all of your suggestions (except for the Backman idea but even that I am willing to give a whirl). I would like to see more of Ripkowski just so I can get an idea of what he brings to the team (but the coaches should not use him just for my edification if they do not think he is ready). Still, I would like to see Ripkowski on 3rd and short to see if he can move a defender out of the hole.
RCPackerFan
January 09, 2016 at 01:17 am
The Backman play for me is more about frustration with the coaches and how this team is being ran. This is a draft and develop team. I like to let players develop and not play before they are ready but when you have injuries you have to adjust your approach to allow younger players to get on the field. Also they don't do enough to use the strengths of players. An example is Janis and Backman are faster for their positions. So find ways to use their speed.
It might be just me but there seems to be a bit of a conflict with how Thompson gets players and how McCarthy wants to use them. Thompson uses almost exclusively the draft to build the team. Which is the way it should be done. The problem is McCarthy's offense basically requires veterans to play. When there are injuries McCarthy needed to make adjustments to allow these younger players to get on the field more. Capers last year adjusted his schemes to be less confusing to allow younger players to play at a higher level. Couldn't McCarthy do that with his offense?
We saw Ripkowski play earlier in the year. Everywhere I saw he graded out well and played well. The highlight was his 22 yard catch and run where he trucked over a defender. I don't get why he hasn't been used more.
What I would love to see is in short yardage bring in both RIP and Kuhn at FBs with a RB behind them. Make it tough for defenses to know where the play is going.
Tundraboy
January 09, 2016 at 01:04 pm
Preaching to the choir my friend. Maybe we might actually see a sprinkling of it this week, but I'm not counting on it.
AZPack
January 09, 2016 at 02:30 pm
He used Peppers az a red zone receiver and the ball was thrown to him. It was a disaster and intercepted. McCarthy got blasted on this site for it. I don't think Peppers is very good adjusting to the ball and making the play. Whatever it was it was an unmitigated failure.
CallingIt
January 08, 2016 at 10:56 am
How much of the 2nd Q drop comes from adjustments made by opposing teams. We re adjust later it appears, but not fast enough.
RCPackerFan
January 08, 2016 at 11:02 am
I have thought the same thing. The initial game plan worked for the first few drives then the other team adjusts and the Packers haven't been able to adjust until the 3rd - 4th quarter.
packsmack
January 08, 2016 at 01:26 pm
The scripted (read: practiced) plays run out in the 2nd quarter, so it's not surprising that a team with injury issues (read: playing with backups) can't execute when they have to go off script. Of course, sample sizes make this more of a strange anomaly than anything.
CallingIt
January 08, 2016 at 01:39 pm
Would be interesting to see the numbers broken down by game as well, see which teams gave us the troubles and compare to our end scores each game.
LASVEGAS-TOM
January 08, 2016 at 02:49 pm
Well, I'm heading to Bally's for the weekend. Once again, going against the way I would normally think of the GB game, YES I think GB will win this one. Of course, I thought the same way last week, but these are the playoffs. I've been waiting since Denver. This team looks to be the way I've wanted them to look going in. Hope I've got it figured right. DON'T LIKE THE LINE, I hope GB SHUTS UP all the Nay Sayers.
The Last THING this team needs Win or Lose is a Change of Management. If they Fire MM, they are CRAZY. That's my opinion. Go Pack, most of us are behind you on this one.
I think we are going to AZ, but a Minn Victory wouldn't completely surprise me, but I don't want to go to Carolina. I'LL save them for the NFCC GAME. Go Packers. KICK SOME ASS.
LVT