The challenge with trading back from the top ten is that you must have a partner to do so. The Cap hit is so significant that most teams are not interested, unless they are trading up or down from within the top 10. I fully expect that Thompson will be stuck at drafting at #9.

If BJ Rajii is there, IMO he plays for us next year, rightly or wrongly.

If he is not there....god help us because I don't think there is a player worth the pick, much less a player worth the pick and that can impact our season next year.

Hawk is yet another linebacker from Ohio St to disappoint on the NFL level. He is not a bust, too many tackles and games played (availability is outstanding) for that. Hopefully the new scheme will free him up some (and the new coaches...my goodness that scheme was highschool).

I am not really excited about the first round this year, nothing too impressive and way too many juniors in the top 50 prospects.

Ted will do us right.

I don't agree at all on Hawk. Many saw him as a franchise player.

The other buck already made the point I was going to make- it's easy to talk about what a great idea it is to trade down, but that dance requires two. Someone needs to be willing to trade up, and be willing to give you something you want in return. I think a lot of GMs would rather have lower picks; not only do they bring lower price tags, they also bring lower expectations.

And that gets me to the other point I was going to make. I think the issue isn't really framed properly. I don't think it's accurate to say that the first 4 or so picks in the draft are franchise players. They may have those expectations, but not a whole lot turn out that way. For every Peyton Manning, I can find you a Ryan Leaf. Does anyone really think Tony Mandarich was a franchise player? Of course not. But he certainly came with that expectation. Reggie Bush did too, but I really don't see him as being a difference maker yet. Because of this crapshoot nature of top picks- high expense that are as likely to flame out as they are to carry a team in their backs- I am surpised when any GM trades up into the first 5 picks at all.

After the events of this years NFL Combine I think Thompson trades down as well. This weekend 2 of the top 10 players WR Michael Crabtree and OT Andre Smith are gone. Crabtree injured his foot working out with Gold medalist Michael Johnson training for the combine. Now he has to have surgery on his foot and is out for 10 weeks. Then OT Andre Smith shows up fat and then does a disappearing act from the NFL Combine and possibly the NFL! So here Thompson stands at the number 9 pick and 2 of the so called best guys are gone. Kind of makes trading down now worth it at this point.

Bucky. Of course busts happen. But I think if you lined up all of the franchise players to come out of the draft over the last 25-30 years you'd find a highly disproportionate number fall "before the break." Christl did some analysis about draft position and franchise players. It was pretty compelling.

Fair point about trading down being difficult if the perception is that all the players are essentially equal past a certain slot. But the point is, if Thompson were able to swing a deal under that scenario, he should be applaude (but he wouldn't be).

Very interesting discussion. DDD is probably right that the break is somewhere between 4-10. The question is where? That's not a question one can answer until a few years after the draft. As far as trading down, it's will someone do it and what do we get back? How about an existing player and a lower pick? Maybe a potential partner is a team that picks in the bottom 5 or so? Anyway, I hold on to the notion that we could get someone on the Dline or 3-4 LB pretty darn good at #9 if we keep the pick. 'Cause here's the thing that we keep going around - if TT trades down and is not really active in FA (expected), then how can we really expect the D to improve that much in 2009? I'm a TT supporter but I'm being serious here. Are we really that sure the existing talent will make the transition? Anyway, really interesting post Aaron & DDD

Great draft analysis from Ourlads.com if anyone is interested. If you really want the goods, get their pre draft player profile and guide, I have 8 of them from past years lined up in my office, its awesome to go through them and see where those players are now that were rated so high...By the way, did you guys know that 25% of the NFL rosters are filled with players that were not drafted? Thats more than players drafted in any round but 1 and 2.

Anyhow, if you really want to look at a conspiracy (I love conspiracies...as long as they don't involve talking about #4) that no one is talking about consider this...there are two different point guides for draft trades. One was ingeniously designed by Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson and disproportionately favors top ten picks, taking no heed of history, only gluttonous preoccupation with the hype of such picks (its the guide that says the #1 pick is worth 1000 points and the 30th pick is worth 340 so the #1 pick is theoretically worth 2 or 3 other first rounders).

The other more recent ascertation of value is secret, but goes something like this: Pretty much all players #8 to 48 are about the same. So if you can get the same player at 48 by trading down and getting another player between 8 and 48 to do so, YOU DO IT!!!!! Its called a twofer. This is the TThompson school of drafting. Of course this only works if you keep the system pretty much to yourself (secret) and if you've done a great job of draft evaluation so you know who those 40 similiar players are.

How many good receivers has Thompson gotten in rds 2 and 3? Murphy, Jones, Jennings and Nelson? How many misses? None. And yet the Vikes and Detroit can't buy a good one in the first round? Collins is another 2nd rounder (pro bowl)....Point is that the 2nd round and early third is where value and talent and payscale start to intersect. This is also why the NFL wants to renegotiate the CBA as its quite silly to pay these guys so much without them having proven a thing. Why should Noshon Moreno make more than LT this year?

I was just feeding the conspiracy theory...now you have made Ted a "normal" guy, for shame!

what about all those in Eagle River convinced he is an alien...?