Ever since general manager Ron Wolf took over at the helm in the early 1990s, the Green Bay Packers have, by and large, been a draft-and-develop team, rarely dipping into the free agency pool to improve the roster. The fact that the franchise has relied on the draft so heavily over the last three decades should not be seen as an indictment. However, this offseason could be a deviation from the norm for general manager Brian Gutekunst, just like it was in 2019. 

“I do feel that whatever opportunities are out there to improve our team in free agency, we’ll be able to do that,” Gutekunst said during his end-of-season press conference. “I don’t think we’ll shy away from adding impact players if we have to push things down the road [in terms of salary cap]. We’d prefer not to do that, but at the same time, this is about winning and trying to win a championship. So if that’s something that makes sense, we’ll do it.” 

Packersnews.com noted the Packers could have at most $39 million in “effective” cap space after restructures and cuts. 

There have been countless teams over the years that have handed out expensive multi-year contracts like Halloween candy during the initial wave of free agency and banked on those players to make an immediate impact. In the short term, the lavish spending seems to have a positive ROI. The team that spent the most guaranteed money in free agency from 2016 until 2020 increased their win total that season by an average of 5.4 wins, according to ESPN. It is a different story, however, in the following season. The team that spent the most guaranteed money from 2016 to 2019 saw their win total decrease by 5.5 wins in Year 2, according to ESPN. 

The New England Patriots dolled out more than $160 million in guaranteed money in 2021, an NFL record at the time. The Patriots improved from 7-9 in 2020 to 10-7 in 2021 and made the playoffs, only to fall back below .500 in 2022 with an 8-9 record. The Jacksonville Jaguars broke the Patriots’ record in 2022, which – yep, you guessed it – worked in the short term. Jacksonville, after going 3-14, won the division with a 9-8 record in 2022 but finished with the same record in 2023. 

Gutekunst & Co. went on a spending spree by necessity in 2019 as the organization’s prior drafts were mostly clunkers, to put it lightly, in terms of results. He signed Za’Darius Smith to a four-year, $66-million deal; Preston Smith to a four-year, $52-million deal; Adrian Amos to a four-year, $36-million deal; and Billy Turner to a four-year, $28-million deal. All four signings, believe it or not, worked out quite well. 

The Packers were 6-9-1 in 2018 and improved to 13-3 in 2019, and did not experience a dropoff in 2020 or 2021, winning 13 games in each of those two seasons as well. The MVP play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers was a leading reason why the Packers won 13 games in three consecutive seasons, but the four aforementioned free agents played a major role as well. 

Za’Darius had 26 sacks over his first two seasons and was a second-team All-Pro honoree in 2020, although he missed all but one game of the 2021 season and was released in March 2022. 

Preston produced 12 sacks in his first year in the Green and Gold and has had at least eight sacks in each of the last three seasons. He is one of 10 players to record at least eight sacks over the last three seasons, according to Bill Huber. Above all, Preston’s best ability has been availability – he has only missed one game in his 146-game career. 

Amos started every single game during his four-year tenure and was a tackling machine. He was third on the team in tackles in 2019, first in 2020, and second in 2021 and 2022. However, he struggled in coverage in 2022, allowing six touchdown passes according to Pro Football Focus. 

Turner started 43 games over three seasons for Green Bay and possessed the positional versatility that every offensive line coach craves, starting games at both tackle and guard positions throughout his tenure. 

If there was a position that could use an impact player in 2024 and beyond, it would be safety. Rudy Ford, Darnell Savage, and Jonathan Owens are all free agents, and the free agent class as of now is headlined by Antoine Winfield Jr., Kyle Dugger, Kamren Curl, and Xavier McKinney. (I fully expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to apply the franchise tag on Winfield.)

Gutekunst will not spend at the clip that he did in 2019. He simply does not have the same amount of money at his disposal to do so. But if he can find value and an impact player on the free agent market, similar to 2019, that could be the difference in the team making a legitimate Super Bowl run in 2024.