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Trading out of the First Round a real Possibility for the Packers

Trading out of the First Round a real Possibility for the Packers

Not many teams have the luxury that the Packers do in the upcoming NFL Draft. At least not ones outside of the bottom-10 in the first round.

A sitting duck at 29th overall, the Packers are in a position where they can either stand pat with their spot or they can trade out of the first round and gain another second round selection and another pick or two from a team rearing to gain another first-rounder.

The only time Packers general manager Ted Thompson has traded out of the first was in 2008 when he moved from No. 30 to 36. A trade with the New York Jets that helped the Packers land a familiar face in Jordy Nelson. You may recognize the name.

If anything, history is on Thompson's side if he chooses to shop his 29th overall pick.

From 1992 through 2014, 74 pick-for-pick first-round trades took place. In the long run, the significant advantage looms large for the teams who elected to trade down as opposed to the teams who traded up. Associate Sports Editor for Graphiq and PointAfter, Will Laws, dove into the analytics in a piece from just prior to the 2015 NFL Draft.

"I tallied the career starts of the 287 draft-picks-turned-players that changed hands in those deals, and the results give an overwhelming advantage towards the teams who elected to trade down. Those 74 trades yielded a net loss of 2,348 starts for the teams who gave up picks to move up in the first round—an average of 31.7 starts lost per trade, or about two seasons worth of a starting-caliber NFL player. From that standpoint, only seven teams have benefited from trading up since the 2003 draft, while the other 19 clubs who chose to do so saw a net loss in players’ starts."

All of this depends on Thompson's board, which is an ongoing mystery to anyone and everyone right now, much like it is every year. Further entertaining the universally shared opinion that mock drafts trying to predict what position the Packers will target with their first pick are moot.

it boils down to this: if Thompson's guy is there, he'll sit at No. 29. If he isn't, expect a shake-up near the end of the night. Much to the chagrin of Packer fans across the pond who stayed awake till the early morning hours waiting to see who their favorite team selects.

It's a prime positioning for Green Bay, who are just three picks shy of being in the second round. It offers far more freedom and less of a gamble if they did choose to trade down, as their 29th overall selection is essentially a second-rounder. 

NFL Media analyst Elliot Harrison maintains stagnancy on his stance that the Packers would take McCaffrey at No. 29. Putting to rest any ideology of the Packers swapping spots.

"A decent running back can found on Day 2 or even Day 3 of the draft (SEE: Johnson, David). Yet, if Christian McCaffrey falls to 29, Thompson might have to say yes. Green Bay can afford to pass on an RB in the first round. The same can't be said for a pass rusher."

If the Packers gain another second round choice (and possibly more via trade), it would make sense given the extensive talent source of cornerbacks in this year's crop. A prime position of need for the Packers and a position that many experts think Thompson would target. Either that, running back or pass-rusher.

Another scenario involves the Packers aiming for a skill position such as wide receiver thanks to the deep defensive talent on the board. With Nelson turning 32 years old a month following the draft and Davante Adams yet to prove that he can be a viable, consistent number one receiver, it would make sense for Green Bay to at least take a mere glance in that direction.

If the Packers do trade out of the first round, they'd lose a fifth-year option on at least one of their second-round selections. Rather than becoming an unrestricted free agent going into year five, he would become one going into year four instead.

The options are there for the Packers, and options are never a bad thing for a team to have in the NFL Draft.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (78) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Nick Perry's picture

LOL.... I'd hate it if I sit through 28 rounds of the first round only to see the Packers trade out. But seriously, I think it comes down to the number of QB's taken in the first 28 picks. Of the 7 teams who hold the first 7 picks of the 2nd round, 5 for sure, maybe 6 need QB's, the Rams being the only team who won't be taking a QB.

IMO with the NEED at OLB and CB the Packers should stay put and use the 29th selection. Matter of fact I wouldn't mind seeing them trade up to 27 to get in front of Dallas. KC holds the 27th pick so working a deal with John Dorsey would be a possibility. I HATE the Cowboys and Jerry, nothing would make me happier on draft day than to steal his pick away! The Cowboys and Packers have similar needs at CB and a pass rusher.

croatpackfan's picture

If you are drafting with idea to ruin somebody else pick, you are already making a huge, huge mistake. It is that simple...

Nick Perry's picture

Clearly you missed the point. If you look at the needs of the Cowboys they are almost identical to the Packers. Taking Jones pick was MY fun of it.

Edit... Not only that but I doubt it would cost to much to move up 2 spots.

Handsback's picture

Nick, I live in the Dallas area and can tell you that a lot of Dallas fans hate JJ, but still love the Cowboys. I'm also disgusted that Jones made it to the HOF, but Kramer hasn't.
So here's the what I think is the difference between the Cowboys and the Packers....they lost three of their starting four defensive backfield. Yes they also want a pass rusher, but CBs/FSs are much higher on their list.
TT can get BPA in either a CB or edge rusher. It won't matter and getting back to the article, he could trade down as long as it's within the first five picks of the second round. He will have players that are rated about the same in both categories.
At least that is what I think.

chugwater's picture

Makes you wonder if DAL won't drop back into the second round themselves.

The TKstinator's picture

"You may recognize the name." LOL

johnnyd17's picture

the 2008 deal was great! if he can get a similar trade, i like that idea, Ted seems to find more talent in the mid rounds anyway, everyone despises Jerry Jones and there is only 1 reason he's going in hall of fame $$$, wrong Jerry, should be Kramer...not Cosmo

Nick Perry's picture

UGH!!!! I've never heard it put that way but it makes the fact Jerry Kramer is not in the HOF and Jerry Jones IS all the more sickening!! If not for Jimmy Johnson where in the hell would Jones be? Jones has done nothing since Jimmy...NOTHING!

johnnyd17's picture

almost as pathetic as the so called rock n roll hof

Michael Grunewald's picture

Again, depth at corner...etc....we have heard this same and dance before from the experts. Draft screams project on that side of the ball, especially corner that deep in the first. Kick the can down the road another two to four years waiting for development that may or may not come.

Bert's picture

I kinda wish we would trade out of RD1 by finding a trade partner who give us a proven CB for our #1. This "development" plan is OK but doesn't help much for 2017. Given how close we are to a SB I would just as soon cut the learning curve and get somebody who can start now.

dobber's picture

It's not like there haven't been candidates: Butler from NE, Johnson from the Rams, and now Sherman. The big contract the new player will command and the pick are two strikes that TT isn't going to overlook, though. His MO is to try to unearth the next Butler/Johnson/Sherman...no matter how many picks it takes.

Bert's picture

If Ted keeps throwing spaghetti at the wall eventually something will stick. At least that's the theory.

stockholder's picture

I doubt TT trades out of the first round. I believe if he is targeting the secondary, he won't. S or CB is one of the top paid positions. The fifth year option on a secondary position is huge. With Conley, Wilson, King , and the possibility of Melifonwu ,even peppers in one. That 5th year option for Jones, Moreau, Jackson, or H.Wilson would be huge. If the packers have their draft party, the selection will be made!

Nick Perry's picture

Don't know if he'll make it to the Packers pick in the 2nd round but I really like Jordan Willis from Kansas St. He was the Big 12 DPOY, had an excellent combine, and played in a conference with talent. That's if the Packers go with something other than OLB in round one.

OrganLeroy's picture

Willis is a guy I like a lot too, sadly, he;s rising up boards and could end up in the bottom of the 1st, but if Ted wants him in rnd. 2 it'll be in the top 15, but again, he could sneak into #29.

stockholder's picture

Mayocks 3.0 evaluation: Does not list Watt or Willis. So TT is going to have a problem with the fans if he doesn't take Watt. Watt and Willis really would be ideal. But others want secondary- Choices being Melionwu S ,Jackson, King. But later TT could get lucky. H.Wilson, Jones, and Moreau,Tabor etc.

dobber's picture

"So TT is going to have a problem with the fans if he doesn't take Watt"

Since when has TT ever cared what the fans thought? It wouldn't be a problem for him...

vj_ostrowski's picture

The Watt obsession among Packers "stockholders" needs to end. It's unhealthy.

dobber's picture

I'd rather hear him talking about Watt than Melifonwu or Adoree Jackson... ;)

stockholder's picture

Obsession. ? Fan poling on Sb Nation has Watt being the highest percentage selection. They need a pass rusher. No one else is going to play their guts out for the wisconsin faithful. To start: Melifonwu was my preference over Watt. But I have to agree with Watt. The only other safeties are 5'10. Forget that! (Baker) OK how about BPA? Who. Nobody, unless you see peppers falling. I would take a pure CB rated in the top 5 first. That way you have a shot at Willis. Regardless TT must select DEFENSE IF HE WANTS TO GO TO THE SUPER-BOWL. Otherwise your just rebuilding.

dobber's picture

"The fifth year option on a secondary position is huge."

I would argue that your assertion would make him WANT to trade down and out of round 1. Besides...if the player is that good, he'd try to re-up them rather than pay out the 5th year option (it still takes two to tango, though). It works better for both parties that way.

PackEyedOptimist's picture

Wow, pretty rough, calling this year's crop of players "crap." ;-)

dobber's picture

A crop of crap?

Zachary Jacobson's picture

Remind me to never write late at night ever again...

snowdog's picture

Like that's Never going to happen again Zake lol

RCPackerFan's picture

Like Nick said the only thing that I would hate is to wait all night until the Packers draft and they trade back into the 2nd round. Meaning I have to wait another day to see who they take.

That being said, depending on how the picks go, trading back might be one of the best options. For example if the Packers are on the clock, and the Browns or 49ers call and offer us their 2nd round pick as well as a 4th or something to move back 4-5 spots. That might not be a bad option. They will still get a good player with that pick but will also get another player that could be a key contributor.

The biggest thing I want with their first pick is someone that can be a play making type of player. Where that comes from in the draft, it really doesn't matter.

johnnyd17's picture

an example in recent years is Vikings trading up for (i think) last 1st rd.pick a few years ago for Teddy Bridgewater, ok, fans are excited, he looked decent enough, now , career in jeopardy,they gave up quite a bit that year and then even more for Bradford, Ted has traded up for Clay Matthews late 1st rd. , traded down in 08, still got Jordy nelson and extra pick plus moved up 11 spots in 3rd

dobber's picture

...what about a few years ago when they drafted Rhodes and Floyd, then traded back up to get Patterson at the end of round 1? Now...Floyd is a mess and Patterson is gone. Rhodes is a keeper, but for those harping on TT and his early selections, this doesn't look much better.

...and there's those warm fuzzies you get when it's the Vikings.

the REAL Packman's picture

This is one scenario that has a very good chance of happening, see my thread below. I still think Huntley is on the block.

OrganLeroy's picture

No one wants Hundley he had 1 good preseason and 1 injured preseason. Why would anyone want to waste a draft pick trading for him?

DesertPackFan's picture

Brunnell and Hasselbeck. Flynn to for that matter, had little in season game experience, but Brunnell and Hasselbeck brought the equivalent of 2nd Rd picks. Flynn brought a compensatory pick back. Teams are desperate for even good QB play.

If Hundley has another good preseason, his value will skyrocket. 2nd easily possible, 3rd at the low end.

This isn't the year to trade him, but next year will be.

DesertPackFan's picture

I don't think Hundley is on the block this year. But next year he absolutely will be assuming he has a good preseason.

Dzehren's picture

Correct. Like the kid from New Jersey but he's not ready

lebowski's picture

please no

lebowski's picture

This team has lacked a difference-maker on D for a few years now, ever since Clay started declining. I think McGinn had an article where scouts hand out 'blue chips, red chips, etc' to players and we had zero blue chippers. Stay where you are and pick the top rusher or corner available.

dobber's picture

On a team that needs more players than it has draft picks, especially as you project out over the next few years, you have to listen if someone comes calling. How the board falls will dictate whether you're buying.

porupack's picture

Less number of warm bodies....., more high talent players....which usually means keep as high in the picking as possible.
If we need warm bodies, get them off the UDFA shelf.

dobber's picture

I agree about the players/warm bodies, thing, but say you're picking #29 and there's half a dozen players on the board you'd be very happy with (maybe all have similar draft grades at positions of relative need). Someone comes along and offers you an early 2nd plus other pick(s) to move down 6-8 spots. That's the perfect opportunity to build draft capital and really not lose out on a player you covet.

al bundy's picture

Ever since Jenkins was let go to save some bucks. He chased QB's into the arms of Mathews, his best year by the way. He has been down hill since Jenkins left.

Handsback's picture

Something to log in our minds before the draft....Pittsburgh has the pick after the Packers. They are saying very loudly, and really I think too loudly for it to be true, that they like Peppers. I think the reason is there's a team behind them that likes him and now may figure it has to trade up to get him. Just like the Browns saying they may pick a QB or Garrett on the first pick. Come on...some of these smoke screens are too obvious.
Three teams in a row; Cowboys, Packers, and Steelers are all looking for DBs and edge rushers and maybe even have their sights on same guy. One of those three may make a move (trade up) to get him (whoever he is) and will be interesting to see if he's selected before all three teams get their chance. If so, that team may trade back. I don't think its Peppers.
Again, just my thoughts.

OrganLeroy's picture

We need some payback on Pittsburg, they took both Shazier and Le'veon Bell before we could!

jeremyjjbrown's picture

If they found a way to get as many as 3 2nd round picks, I'd be happy with that.

jh9's picture

TT won't draft a CB in the 1st round. If he did he would be admitting that drafting Randall was a mistake, and I don't see TT ready to make that admission yet.

I also don't think TT will draft a RB in the 1st round. We all know how tight fisted TT is with money. RBs can be injured easily, and I don't see TT allowing himself to be on the hook with 1st round money for an injured RB.

IMO, TT will draft an OLB in the 1st round or he will trade down for an additional 2nd round pick and draft an OLB and a RB or a CB in the 2nd round. (He may even trade up in the 2nd round with his second pick to get the right player with his second pick.)

It's fun to speculate, and I'm looking forward to this draft.

dobber's picture

"TT won't draft a CB in the 1st round. If he did, he would be admitting that drafting Randall was a mistake..."

I don't think that's necessarily true as the Randall/Rollins picks were made when Shields was healthy and had a newly-signed contract that would keep him around for a few years. He was going to be one of the two bookend corners...the question was: who was going to be the other? You've got to be at least 3 if not 4 playable CB deep. Shields's injury put a big hole in that...I don't think drafting a CB would be an admission of failure. And if House/Randall/Rollins all turn out to be decent DBs in 2017, remember that House is only on a one-year deal and may be gone after the season...still a big hole. Start grooming that hole-filler...

"IMO, TT will draft an OLB in the 1st round or he will trade down for an additional 2nd round pick and draft an OLB and a RB or a CB in the 2nd round."

I think you're pretty much on. If it were me pulling the strings, I'd be hoping with the first four picks to get two edge players, a DB, and an offensive skill guy (RB/WR). I would be mildly surprised if TT uses the first pick and its not an edge rusher, and really surprised if he uses the pick and it's not an edge/DB (unless a really good prospect slides, of course).

jh9's picture

We may disagree regarding the perception of drafting a CB in the first round, but overall we agree what the first four picks should be. I, too, would like to see TT draft a second edge rusher with the first four picks.

Like I said, it's fun to speculate.

tipton52's picture

"If it were me pulling the strings, I'd be hoping with the first four picks to get two edge players, a DB, and an offensive skill guy (RB/WR). I would be mildly surprised if TT uses the first pick and its not an edge rusher, and really surprised if he uses the pick and it's not an edge/DB (unless a really good prospect slides, of course)."

Ditto-- only thing I wonder about is guard. I Wouldn't be surprised to see them addressing that in the first 4 rounds either.

Dzehren's picture

That would be a dream scenario CB OLB RB round 2

dobber's picture

Maybe TT looks ahead and says, "We're going to break the bank on compensatory picks in 2018, why not trade picks out of 2018 (which will get replaced when compensatory picks are assigned) to get more picks in 2017?"

OK...we all know it won't happen, but a gamblin' man might roll those dice.

Tarynfor12's picture

" as their 29th overall selection is essentially a second-rounder. "

The most overuse, misguided statement used to offset the failure of a selection of a player.
Perhaps a review of what actually is a 1st rd player is in order.
The number of players each year drafted after the 1st rd and play better and longer at high levels simply shows that many cannot recognize real ability ir simply buy the media hyped for ticket and commissary sales.
If you still believe that true 1st rd talent stops at 10 or 15 or 20 out of all the players....you'll keep missing on your late 1st rd selection because of that or your evaluation process is flawed and shewed.

dobber's picture

Maybe better to say, "the 29th overall selection is likely to be made from players with 2nd round grades"?

the REAL Packman's picture

Standing pat at 29 and a quality player will drop.. If Jabrill Peppers falls to around say 20 then TT should pull the trigger and trade up. I think Brett Hundley is on the block. He should bring in a 3-4th round,. Also remember next year we should yield 4 comp picks rounds 3-7. so next year there will be somewhat of a rebuild. TT draft to replace players. The question is which player has the least amount of impact left for the Packers? Also , Handsback makes a great point this year , GB, Dallas and Pittsburg (order in draft) all need the same players... DB,Edge Rushers. Its going to be an interesting draft. That said I feel the replacement players in the next 2-3 years are in no particular order .... Matthews, Bulaga,Cobb and Nelson.

Spock's picture

The REAL packman, no way Hundley is on the block. He's real insurance over Callahan. The bigger issue is, as dobber said above, "(it still takes two to tango, though)". The ability this year to trade compensatory picks makes this draft far more unpredictable. I suspect plenty of low round one teams would consider trading down for more picks, but how many teams realistically would want to trade up to 29?

the REAL Packman's picture

Hundley's contract is coming up. They are not going to sign him long term and his value will be showcased in the preseason, He may be dealt after Preseason for a pick in the 2018 Draft ... The Packers can load up draft picks in 2018. So far I think they will get 4 extra picks (league max). Plus whatever they get for Hundley. They could net six extra picks next year. I think they should unload him now and get another pick plus trade down in the 2nd round with someone who wants to trade up getting another pick somewhere in the 4-5 round range. Just Theory right !

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I wouldn't pick Peppers if he fell to #29. He isn't a guy one should trade up for at all.

DesertPackFan's picture

One INT and one FF in his college career isn't what you expect from a 1st rd pick. He's a nice piece for matchup purposes, but using a 1st on him doesn't make sense IMO. I want a guy who creates turnover plays much more often.

Peppers isn't good in man coverage w/ WR. TE and some RB maybe. Take him in rd 2. Someone else can make the mistake and take him in Rd 1.

the REAL Packman's picture

Draft update
1. TJ Watt OLB - Matthews replacement
2. (Trade down) Joe Mixon RB 1st round talent gives GB legitimate backfield. Mixon is a 3 down back and can fill in for Montgomery.
3. Fabian Moreau - 4.3 speed 40... the defense was too slow in the NFC championship game
3. Huntley trade- Adam Bisnowaty - Moving to Guard
4. Rasul Douglas CB- Another solid CB
5. (Trade Down extra 5th pick) Chad Hansen WR- Solid receiver... knows all the WR tree routes.
5. Jaleel Johnson DT - Iowa connection
5. Keith Beckwith ILB Possible 1-2 round before injury
6. Ben Braden G
7. Nate Gerry S - see Kentrell Brice

Priority FA after the Draft
Jon Connors RB
Thomas Decoud CB
Kyle Kalis G
Storm Norton OT
Jimmie Gilbert OLB
Kenny Golladay WR
Nathan Peterman QB
Davis Webb QB
Austin Rekhow P/K
Nate Saubert TE

al bundy's picture

Probably not a bad idea but I wonder how much worth it has, its 29th. Three more and your in the second. Not sure many teams would be that interested. Go figure. Maybe something Ted T probably doesnt care about

PatrickGB's picture

I like the idea of trading out of the first round. But for TT it has to be worth the trade. Only Ted knows what "worth it" means. Besides, I don't mind waiting till the next day. I could use the sleep.

PackerfanAuggie15's picture

Dobber's logic is clean. A trade out to early 2nd round nets more value because of the skill/ value clustering at the end of round 1.

DesertPackFan's picture

Its all well and good. And I agree its good value to drop a few spots. But we've been saying that for more than a couple years and it never happens. Teams have to WANT to move up and give up what it will take to make the trade down make sense for the Packers. Other teams know there is a cluster of talent between about 25 and 40 that is all the same. Finding a teams that is willing and wants to make it happen isn't easy. And if it were, it would happens alot more than it does. Generally takes a desperate team wanting a specific player.

Nice to talk about it being good value and I can agree w/ that, but the other teams aren't lining up to make these trades happen.

DesertPackFan's picture

Speaking of a desperate team wanting a specific player? I give you the Minn Viqueens and Coradelle Patterson! Thanks for the laughs viqueens!

Dzehren's picture

I agree. Only wild card is if QB's drop and r available when the pack pick at 29.... only way we trade down

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

By trading down from #30 to 36, we added the 113th pick, a 4th rounder (we took Jeremy Thompson, who was a bust that appeared in just 15 NFL games in his career). To add a 2nd rounder, we'd have to trade back a looong way.

Too many folks playing fansquawk or whatever.

contomlon's picture

Probably not a bad idea but I wonder how much worth it has, its 29th. http://supermarioworld2.com Three more and your in the second. http://sloperun3.com Not sure many teams would be that interested. http://madalinstuntcars2.com Go figure. Maybe something Ted T probably doesnt care about

Turophile's picture

I really like the trade down scenario, but teams hate giving away picks. However there is an alternative.

My favourite scenario is that the Packers swap with the Chargers. Chargers get pick #29 and use it either for a QB left on the board, or for an offensive tackle, as there aren't many good OTs this year. Packers get #38 and the Chargers and Packers swap 3rd round picks.

This means the Packers drop nine spots in round one, and move up 22 spots in round three (from 93 to 71). The value is almost exactly equal according to the old value chart and the Chargers do not lose any picks, just draft later in round three. The real value for the Packers in that swap, is in how much better the choices are at the top of round three are, compared to the bottom.

stockholder's picture

That would help the chargers more than the packers. Yes you might get a better RB in rd. 3. But the value of trading back 10 spots sucks. The secondary starters would be gone. You would be targeting Willis, maybe a wr. I would have to have an extra 3rd or 4th round pick some way. (The packers should give up a 5th.) The value of this draft is in the 3rd and fourth for the packers. OL,RB,WR . And if they don't go secondary with 1 of their first 2 picks, add that first.

stockholder's picture

I should add this. That @29. TTs new choices are going to be Watt, Melifonwu , or King CB. King is right behind Conley. I think King is a TT guy. I won't be shocked if he takes King. King is getting a 1st round grade now.

dobber's picture

That's if we limit the choices to DB or OLB. That's limiting the choice based solely on what we perceive as being the top positions of need. As MarkinMadison posted yesterday, and I tend to agree, TT isn't so constrained in this draft. If their top grade goes to a player at some other position (especially if it's not even close), go get him. The depth of this draft at Edge/CB plays in the Packers favor in that regard.

Who is giving King a first round grade? Draftniks and media pundits. I guarantee you that no GM or coach is telling people who they have as carrying first-round grades, and especially not guys at the fringe of either round. If they are, I wouldn't believe them.

Nick Perry's picture

Melifonwu is a physical freak. I wonder if Seattle doesn't grab him considering Chancellor is a FA in 2018. I don't know about King, not at 29. 5'10 201 pounds with a 4.6 40? The Packers need to get faster IMO though I like him in round 2

dobber's picture

For a guy that many scouts say lacks coverage skills and instincts...I wouldn't want to use a round 1 pick.

stockholder's picture

Melifonwu is a freak. I like him. The knock, is he slow to respond ,then the other safeties or especially as a CB. But the guy makes plays all over the field. I think I should have put Kevin Kings full name in. He's 6'3" and climbing. The problem is his tackling. But we had Shields. (That is why he's a TT guy) He never allowed a TD. And I felt that if TT wanted a CB. This is his guy in the first round. Tall, Fast, and a true CB. Just what TT would take for the outside! I'm basing that on Mayocks recent draft of 3.0. CBS, and others. Watt has dropped, But I still would take Watt.

dobber's picture

I would love it if someone else reached and drafted Melifonwu in front of the Packers (go get 'em JJ!). It means that another legit high-end player will slide to the Packers at #29.

Turophile's picture

Well, I guess we'll disagree here, stockholder, that it helps the Chargers more than the Packers. I think trading back in round one is often wise, because dropping a few spots gives a pretty valuable return. If Ted has 10-15 players with a similar grade at #29, then he most likely will at least be trying to trade back, because he still gets similar value with his new pick and greater value elsewhere.

I happen to believe there are likely to be good choices left at #38 that are not very different from the value at #29. Put a different way, the drop of nine spots (#29 to #38) will prove to be less of a dropoff than the 22 spots in round three (#71 to #93).

One thing I can (almost) guarantee is that the secondary starters will NOT all be gone. Almost all the good CBs just might be gone by #61 (even then I think one or two are left), but not by #38, unless you have locked yourself into acquiring one of maybe only three CBs (eg Conley, Humphrey, White).

Just to give you a feel for guys available at #71 instead of #93, I looked at the NFL.com draft site. From #71 to #77 they have WR Zay Jones, WR Cooper Kupp, S Obi Melifonwu, CB Cordrea Tankersly, CB Fabian Moreau, WR Chris Godwin, RB D'Onta Foreman. It won't be those exact players, but it gives you an idea. Others like rushers Rivers and Anderson, or Center Elflein or guard Asiata might be there instead, depending on how players are slotted in the real draft. There are many very talented guys in the above list who could really help Green Bay.

PS Giving up the Packers 5th round pick is worth 23 points on the old value chart. That will get you nothing in round three. In contrast, dropping just the nine spots from #29 is worth 110 points. Your idea of getting a fairly early extra 4th round pick, instead of swapping thirds, has far more mileage to my mind.

stockholder's picture

Turnpile I did understand. 23 secondary picks should be off the board by the end of Rd. 2. I feel only 5 Cbs are shut down corners that could start. 3 safeties. I'd like to bet you on the #71 - 77. All should be gone from what I've seen in mocks. Don't be blind. Most of your draft guide magazines were written, and shipped before 4/1/17. I'm saying that the value for the packers is late 3, early 4th. I feel that if Watt is gone. The only other CB that could start is King from Wa. And would TT take Melifonwu? (As Burnett plays inside more.) Remember I tried to keep my draft within the article and saving the option year for the 2nd rd pick. If you take a cb late , it's 4 years and the development will take 1/2 of that. Not to mention Randall is going to be a starter for years. But I would not trade down. The biggest worry is what happen to Randall and Rollins this year. Still nice comment.

marpag1's picture

This whole discussion about "rounds" is silly ... as if "rounds" made any difference at all. For all practical purposes, "rounds" are a figment of your imagination. The only difference between the 32nd pick and the 33rd is that 32 comes first and 33 follows one spot immediately after it, and right before 34.

Oooh, but 33 a SECOND ROUNDER, you see...

So it's kind of nonsensical to suggest that the Packers are somehow in better position than other teams are because they can more easily "trade out of the first round." LOL. Who cares about "rounds?" Any team can trade down just as easily as the Packers can, and whether that moves them into a lower "round" or not is entirely irrelevant.

stockholder's picture

TT cares! We saw first hand what happened with Adams Jared, and Janis. I understand what you mean. Just it will never be that way.

Oppy's picture

marpag, I agree with what you are saying in theory. However, in practice, the way rookie draft pick contracts are structured does make first round picks different than others, most noteable (and already discussed here recently) is 5th year options.

Stockholder, I don't think TT and the Packers treat first round picks any differently than any other- if the Packers don't feel there is discernible difference between the talent level available at a given slot and see an opportunity to gain a pick and move back to another slot where they feel the talent level hasn't dropped off much (or at all), they'll make the trade, bank the extra pick, and back up. If the Packers don't feel there is a player worth the first round money (not nearly as big of a deal as it used to be, of course), they may trade back because it doesn't make sense to spend "first round money" on guys who they don't feel will provide "first round talent".

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