Adams made elite CBs look a fool, in games, not just in practice.

Stokes needs to play on his man not off. He’s fast not a twinkle toes. He is also from a man not zone background, so there’s a learning curve there too.

He also needs to get healthy. The team has been very tight lipped about what happened. My guess is that he’s not certain to be back or truly fully back early and that he’s going to have to be worked in during the season. This could be a get back in track after a bad injury year for him, unfortunately.

One does not simply switch from corner to safety. These are different skill sets. It's not as simple as changing the player's designation on the roster

It's questionable whether you're bright enough to comment on this site, but here you are...

You don';t believe Stokes should be playing corner back in the NFL, he made the All Rookie NFL Team at corner back, am I missing something ?

Here's a 7 year analysis (2011-2017, article written in 2020) on "success" rate of all players drafted in the first round. On the second page of the article, you'll find the first chart shows the average success rate for DBs taken in the first round of the draft is low- 33%.

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-an...

For the purposes of the analysis, author defines "success" by using Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value Stat at various levels, the baseline being an AV of 5, which isn't particularly high bar to set, he notes.

Also, coincidentally, the author notes that 3 positions are particularly low-percentage success rates in the first round during that time period; WR, TE, and DB.

Maybe there's a really good reason why the Packers have shied away from drafting WRs and TEs in the first round.

With all that being said, many GM's are looking for boom-or-bust type players in the 1st round as opposed to NFL ready types. NFL ready doesn't necessarily equate to highest talent level- a lot of NFL ready types have already reached their potential - they'll be sound NFL starters but may never be more than reliable. The boom-or-bust types are often the players who have only scratched their potential at this stage of their football careers- you are essentially gambling on the diamond in the rough. If they fail to develop further, they're probably no more than average and might even be a bust. If they do continue to grow their skills, however, they have the physical tools to be all-time greats. Because hit rate is so low in the first round, many GMs like to go for the home-run or strike-out pick in the first round. Or, maybe it's the other way around- chicken or the egg. Either way, it's not uncommon.

The arm chair GMs always hold the real GMs to standards of success which simply aren't rooted in reality.

One last chart to check out, success rate in the first round by selection

picks 1-5 have a success rate of 75%
6-10, 57%
11-15, 57%
16-20, 46%
21-26, 29%
27-32, 39%

These are still grading success against a very modest AV of 5...

Guess where the Packers draft at almost every year?

Odds of a player taken in the first round to be named to at least one pro bowl: < 33%

Stokes was great and an all rookie in his first season. That doesn’t evaporate overnight. It could be over confidence led to a sophomore slump. I personally think that most if not all of it was him playing both zone and 4 yards off. The figures support that for him and others. I seriously struggle with his fit for that in particular.

In his rookie season Stokes allowed only 49.5% of catches to be completed (eighth best in the league) with 511 yards and three touchdowns allowed, per Pro Football Reference. Stokes had the lowest percentage of open targets allowed in 2021, at 24% among all cornerbacks. His 13 forced incompletions and interceptions were tied for the most among rookie cornerbacks with Patrick Surtain, and he also had the second-lowest passer rating among the rookie class as well. Out of 72 eligible cornerbacks, he ranked fourth in completion rate given up, 10th in forced incompletions, 15th in pass breakups, and 18th in snaps per reception allowed.

Almost all of that came while playing press coverage. He took on Chase and Samuels and held up well—with Jaire out. His positioning was excellent. If he allowed a pass, he was there to wrap up the catcher, but he allowed less than half of the passes that came his way to be caught.

Then this year, that was exactly not what appears to have been asked. It doesn’t take much to spot the elephant in the room here. How he succeeded and what he excelled at was essentially rendered irrelevant by the approach this year, especially in the period in which he was healthy. It wasn’t helping Jaire, who is a much more adaptable type.

After allowing sub-50 percent completion rates each of the previous three seasons, Alexander yielded a 56.5 mark in 2022. PFF rated him 42nd in completion percentage (60.6), sixth in passer rating (66.2) and 44th in snaps per reception (10.8). That’s not Stokes bad, but it’s a big drop off and suggestive of a bigger drop off from Stokes.

Douglas also took a step back. Of the 100 cornerbacks to play at least 268 coverage snaps, PFF had him ranked 60th in completion percentage (67.3), 32nd in passer rating (84.0) and 56th in snaps per reception (10.2). That’s despite him excelling at anticipation, read and react. All suffered (as did the safeties).

Stokes, who thrived on being all over targets, had one good game when he was, but playing off in 2022, Stokes allowed 21-of-25 completions (84.0 percent) with a 125.8 passer rating. Of all corners with at least 250 defensive snaps, that catch rate was the worst in the league. After leading the team with 14 passes defensed as a rookie, he didn’t have any in his nine games. Stokes’ yards per target more than doubled from 5.3 to 10.8. His missed-tackle rate nearly doubled, from 9.7 percent to 16.1.

So the message here is that the system as employed truly hindered all the DBs but, among the CBs, was almost perfectly designed to undermine Stokes’s strengths. This is why he failed and why the D was pass porous. Either it changes or we will be again and Stokes will again be miscast. Barry will be history. I don’t see keeping Douglas on the outside as indicative that Barry has learned if Stokes is likely to be ready for the season. If Barry plays that way, trading Stokes might have been an option we’re he healthy, because I don’t see him thriving in off coverage ever. Then again, I don’t see Jaire bring the Jaire he should be either.

I agree with you that if the injury saps Stokes’ 4.2 speed significantly it will make his life more difficult, but there’s no certainty that that happens and it won’t prevent him using his length if he can play press-press zone is a thing. As a 4.2 runner he’s got a cushion too.

If we repeat the same approach as 2022 then Stokes will be another pick we wasted and likely the next Heyward/Hyde when he gets to a team that will use him as he was in 2021. Perhaps Barry will revert to that approach of course. If not it’s just proof he is as clueless in the secondary as Gray appears to have concluded. I believe Barry is similarly responsible for the drop off in safety play too.

Not sure why the down vote but while I would prefer the last thing the Packers use their #15 for is CB, I too have wondered if either Gonzales, or Witherspoon are sitting there whether Gutey might select. I have made my preference for the #15 be offense (of course always dependent who might fall, or what the eventual trade ends up looking like), but if Gutey goes defense in round 1 my hope is he goes Edge, and to a lesser degree DL.

Paragraph #4 all day, my man!!

Stokes showed real promise his first year. THEN he was put into the Barry defense and got hurt. I wouldn't call it a wasted pick, injuries happen.

First MN game, Justin Jefferson went OFF. Jaire (allegedly) asked to take him one on one and Barry declined, because GB “is a zone team”.
And in the second MN game, he put 23 on 18 (almost) all day. How did that turn out?
I am trying to be hopeful that MAYBE Barry learned something that day.

Odd that late in camp 2022 Barry was saying “[Douglas] has such a great feel, you know? He’s such an instinctual and aware football player,” …. “I think you could put ‘Sul anywhere in the back end and he’d just find a way. Obviously the nickel corner position is unique, it’s different, it’s different playing inside than outside, but he’s done a phenomenal job.”

I wouldn't say I'm "worried" that 2021 was an outlier. No, I pretty much accept it as a stone-cold fact. And I was convinced that 2021 would be an outlier even before we resigned him. I mean, dude had 5 INTS including 2 pick-6's, 13 PDs and a forced fumble in TWELVE GAMES (only 9 starts). No one should have thought that he was going to keep up that kind of pace. And he didn't. He never played like that prior to his time in Green Bay, and he may not ever have that kind of production again.

Yeah, he had some rough stretches last year. But the bottom line is that he's still a serviceable player, even if he didn't live up to many people's unrealistic expectations.

Most of the slow is on O, or was. Other than Douglas, the DBs were actually fast as a group on paper. On O, outside if Watson, we had no true burners and we started Cobb and Lazard at WR making us one of the slower WR groups. Even Jones is quick but not super fast in the 40.

The most descriptive I can drudge up is "right ankle and knee injuries".
Got injured during the 11/6 game vs. DET. He was carted off.
Had surgery a week or two later.

Seems like the original report of ankle and knee slowly morphed into just ankle injury being reported; not sure if the knee was misdiagnosis or if the team decided they didn't want to advertise knee damage.