We barely got a chance to enjoy an incredible comeback win against the Saints before the Lions rolled into town and started crackin’ heads. I have simply decided to keep riding the high of the Saints win and purge all feelings from the Lions game. We can look at the film. We can analyze the passing game. But we cannot feel a thing. I think that’s healthy. 

Let’s look at the passing game. Here’s the chart:

Jordan Love started off pretty rough (a statement that could be made about the entire offense), but, once he settled in, he played pretty well. For the first time this season he turned in a positive CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) of +5.4%. 

But that’s not all! This was Love’s best game this season when kept clean, despite him only being kept clean on 52.4% of his dropbacks (per PFF). When he was kept clean, he was getting rid of the ball in 2.25 seconds. He completed 77.3% of his 22 passes for 198 yards (9.0 YPA). That’s his highest completion percentage, highest YPA and quickest time to throw when kept clean in these first 4 games. 

I say he was only kept clean on 52.4% of his dropbacks. He was kept clean an average of 78.6% of the time over the first 3 games. His lowest percentage of throws when he was kept clean outside of this game was the week 2 game against the Falcons, where he was kept clean on 77.8% of his dropbacks. If he’s able to maintain some of these numbers while being kept clean even league average (~65%), we’d really be cooking with gas.

I’ll say that the play action game is starting to concern me. His numbers in this area were fine (6/7 for 41 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT), but defenses are actively working to take away the middle of the field on play action, leading to throwing into tighter windows than you typically like to see, and not quite as in-rhythm as you’d want. After years of being terrorized by play action, defenses are starting to fight back. They’re not biting as hard on the run and scrambling to get depth to take away the middle of the field routes from the offense. It’s something to monitor as the season goes on, but, so far, it has made for some tougher situations than you want to see out of play action.

Again, Love has had success with play action. His completion % is 10.1 points higher on play action than it is on straight dropback (9th in the league), and he’s averaging 2.5 more yards per attempt from play action than he is on straight dropback passes (15th in the league). So he’s performing well, but defenses are trying to make life harder for him off play action, and I don’t think that’s going away. Matt LaFleur has had some nice counters to this, so we’ll see how this changes over the next few games.

Alright. Let’s get to some plays. I’m trying something a little different with the videos I’ve marked up this week. Honestly, it’s something I should have done a while ago. The videos will have the play twice: the first time will have the mark-ups, and it will then be followed by the full wide angle with no interruptions. I figure that’ll help get a larger feel for the overall play without the stop/start nature of the marked-up videos.

Play 1: 1st & 10, 13:06 remaining in the 3rd quarter

It may shock you to find that neither of the plays we’re looking at today are from the first half. I’ll wait a minute while you pick your jaws up from the floor.

This is a concept the Packers (and other teams) run quite a bit: a two-man concept called Dagger. The inside man will run a vertical/clear-out route, while the outside receiver will run a in-breaking route behind it. The idea is that the vertical route will clear room for the following in-breaker. This version appears to be the Middle Read version, where the vertical route will run his route based on the drops of the deep safeties. If the defense drops to two-high safeties, the vertical route will run right between them. If the defense drops to a single-high safety, the vertical route will break off on a deep in-breaker.

The Lions are showing single-high pre-snap, but rotate to two-high post-snap. Beyond that, they have a linebacker dropping back with Romeo Doubs [87] right down the middle of the field for a Tampa 2 look.

The play action draws the boundary defender over Christian Watson [9] towards the line, giving him a free release. With the Tampa LB dropping and the underneath defenders spot-dropping, there’s a nice space in the middle of the field for Jordan Love [10] to hit Watson.

Even with a defender firing off a block and running downhill in his face, Love stands in and makes a nice throw.

Play 2: 2nd & goal, 8:22 remaining in the 3rd quarter

I guess I’m just looking at both of Watson’s receptions. It wasn’t planned, but I’ll take it.

This is off an RPO, but how the decision is made is interesting to me.

They’ve got an inside zone run look with a Slant/Flat pass tag on the left with Doubs and Watson. On this play, the decision to throw or pass is made pre-snap based on the numbers to the passing side. If the offense has a numbers advantage on the pass, throw the flat route. If the numbers are even (or if the defense has an advantage), hand it off. 

The numbers are even on the passing side here, but there’s something else to consider: depth of the defenders. Both of the Lions defenders to the passing side are at the same depth. With the slant/flat tag the Packers have in this area, it’s that bit of information that leads Love to throw to Watson. With Watson cutting tight to the flat off Doubs’ hip, the depth of the defenders means that the flat defender will have to go over the slant route, giving Watson open space at the front pylon.

The decision, basically, is this: do I hand off into a 9 man box, or throw to even numbers, knowing the flat defender will be delayed getting to his spot?

Love hitches a couple times on the throw. He’s either making sure the boundary defender isn’t falling off to pick up the flat or making sure he can get the throw around Aidan Hutchinson [97]. 

I continued my weekly Packer Playbook series with John Kuhn. This week we dug into 5 running plays against the Lions and dug into what went right - or wrong - on them. Just like every week, I learned a ton. Hope you all do as well.

Albums listened to: Green Day - Dookie; The Slow Show - Subtle Love; Wilco - Cousin; Blonde Redhead - Sit Down For Dinner; Molly Burch - Daydreamer