It is becoming an annoying trend -- the Green Bay Packers struggle at stopping the run. They switched defensive coordinators a season ago. They used both of their 2022 first round picks on defensive players, an inside linebacker and an interior lineman. They signed defensive tackle Jarran Reed. All to no avail. Joe Barry's unit is allowing five yards per carry through the first four games of the 2022 season, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They are also 22nd in  rushing yards allowed per game (126.8 yards/game). Not to mention, they are one week removed from allowing 167 yards on the ground (5.1 yards/carry). And to boot, they will face their toughest test yet when they face off against Giants running back Saquon Barkley across the pond on Sunday (8:30 AM CST kick-off on NFL Network). 

The Penn State product has been one of the best running backs, if not the best, in the NFL through the first four games. He leads the league in yards from scrimmage and in rushing yards (463). For running backs with at least 50 carries, Barkley is second to only Browns running back Nick Chubb in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. He is also second in rushing yards over expectation with 133. The fourth-year pro is coming off an incredible performance in Week 4, one in which he carried the rock 31 times for 146 yards. And while one might look at the box score against the Carolina Panthers from Week 2 and think that Barkley struggled, it was a tale of two halves. He did not gain a single yard on five carries in the first half, but he amassed 72 yards on 16 carries in the second half (4.5 yards/carry) en route to a 19-16 victory. 

NFL rushing yards leaders thru Week 4:

1. Giants RB Saquon Barkley - 463
2. Browns RB Nick Chubb - 459
3. Eagles RB Miles Sanders - 356
4. Saquon Barkley AFTER CONTACT - 342
5. Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson - 340

— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) October 3, 2022

Truth be told, the Packers cannot afford to allow Barkley to break tackles due to the explosiveness and breakaway speed he has exhibited in the open field through the first four games. The problem is that Green Bay has missed far too many tackles thus far. They have 25 missed tackles on the season, according to Pro Football Focus, and linebacker De'Vondre Campbell is responsible for almost a quarter of those missed tackles (6). One way that the Packers can possibly keep Barkley at bay is by getting off to a faster start, particularly offensively. In other words, if the Giants are playing from behind much of the game, that might force them to catch up through the air. Advantage, Packers, because quarterback Daniel Jones may be hampered by an ankle injury suffered against the Bears last week. Not to mention, the signal caller is 30th in expected points added on pass attempts (3.0) and is 23rd in passer rating (81.9). 

However, Matt LaFleur's offense has yet to prove they are fast starters this season, averaging only 11.3 points per first half (17th). On that note, one of the marks of a great team is their first-half point differential. The logic, or at least a part of it, is simple: it is much less taxing playing with a lead than playing from behind. Moreover, as former NFL executive Michael Lombardi wrote in Sports Illustrated in 2008, "it forces the opponent to play a near-perfect second half. It also requires the defensive play-caller to not make one mistake, lest he limit his ability to be creative in attacking the passer. ... [W]hen a team falls behind and is concerned about not allowing the big play on third down, this reduces their blitzing and makes the game much easier on the quarterback."

First-half point differential is not the end-all, be-all though, at least on a micro level. Take the Dolphins-Ravens game earlier this season, for instance. The Dolphins were down 21 points at half, thus leaving them with a -21 first-half point differential, yet rallied for a 42-38 victory. But over time, the cream rises to the top and the better the team's cumulative first-half point differential is later in the season, I reckon that team will be in contention for the Lombardi Trophy. As referenced in the aforementioned article, the Patriots, who lost to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, led the league in first-half point differential (+196) for the 2007-08 season and the Chargers were second (+104), who lost to the Pats in the AFC Championship Game. The Packers were 7th (+56; they lost to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game), and every single team in the top-10 of first-half point differential made the playoffs. 

I took a sampling of the "top" 16 teams through the first four full weeks of the season -- the Packers, Giants, Chiefs, Eagles, Bucs, 49ers, Rams, Bills, Dolphins, Vikings, Ravens, Cowboys, Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, and Browns. 

The Eagles, the lone undefeated team left, are head and shoulders above the group with a first-half point differential of +57. The 49ers and Ravens are next, each with a differential of +39, followed by the Titans (+31), Chiefs (+28), the Rams (+17), Cowboys (+13), Browns (+9), and the Packers (+8). (Green Bay was down 17 at the half in Week 1, up by 17 in Week 2, up by 11 in Week 3, and trailed by 3 last week.) The Giants own a differential of -11. 

Will the Packers start fast, or will they be forced to step up in the second half and have to deal with the potential reckoning of Barkley? For all of our heart rates, I surely hope it is the former.