Randall Cobb, Not Overpaid but a Matchup Nightmare

At $10 million per year on a $40 million dollar deal signed in 2015 after a breakout season, it's no secret that many believe Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb is heavily overpaid.

This sentiment is based off of his performance over the last two seasons in which Cobb left much to be desired on the field—2015 even more so. But Cobb's drop-off in performance didn't just fall out of the sky.

In 2014, then-receivers coach Edgar Bennett had a group of wide receivers that looked less than optimal on paper. However, Jordy Nelson and Cobb combined for 25 touchdowns and over 2,800 receiving yards. A young Davante Adams in his rookie season was featured in a limited role that netted him just 66 targets throughout the regular season.

Through the 16-game season and the playoffs included, Adams saw 70.3 percent of the offense's snaps.

The next closest receiver? Jarrett Boykin: 21.4 percent.

It was the Nelson and Cobb show until Nelson tore his ACL before the 2015 season began. The Packers were then relying on Cobb -- fresh off his monstrous new contract -- and Adams -- expected to make a second-year jump.

As the No. 1 receiver, Cobb struggled mightily and opposing defensive coordinators had no problem slowing down Green Bay's mediocre passing attack. Cobb was still utilized out of the backfield, on wheel routes, on the perimeter; all of which culminated in frustration.

The Packers completed 31.6 percent of their deep passes in 2015, including just 20.83 percent on the right side of the field. They lacked a deep threat, and Cobb wasn't the guy to fill the void. An injured Adams who had been dealing with an ankle injury for a majority of the season wasn't at the time, either.

Adams' injury forced Cobb to be singled out by defensive players, ensuring blanketed coverage and leaving the Packers' offense scrambling for answers.

The lesson was learned. Cobb isn't a receiver that can be lined up on an island, but more so a Swiss Army knife that can line up at various positions and prove effective.

Cobb was renowned as one of the league's top slot receivers, and with what the Packers ask Cobb to do, the $10 million per year is arguably rightfully earned.

The partnership between Cobb and quarterback Aaron Rodgers also can't be measured in money. Rodgers likes him -- trusts him -- and would likely be one of the first to justify Cobb's contract. Making the man under center happy is priceless in Green Bay.

In that dismal 2015 season, Cobb caught 66 passes from his primary slot position on 109 targets, tallying 704 yards and six touchdowns. That's even more of a significant statistic considering that means Cobb caught a mere 13 passes lined up elsewhere on the field.

Sports Illustrated ranked Cobb as one of the league's premier slot receivers entering the 2016 season.

"Cobb was forced more outside in 2015 as a result of the torn ACL that cost Jordy Nelson his entire 2015 season. He showed impressive aplomb, but the Packers are in their best shape when Cobb can manipulate coverage over the middle and down the seams as a speed slot weapon with an ever-increasing route awareness. Cobb's speed is his primary skill—he can foot-fake a cornerback into stopping at the first coverage point, and then blow right by him in embarrassing fashion."

Sports Illustrated weren't the only ones high on Cobb entering 2016 despite a lackluster prior season. Pro Football Focus wrote this as well:

"The entire Green Bay offense was in a funk last season when Jordy Nelson went down and Aaron Rodgers lost confidence in everything, but go back just a year and you see Cobb at his best – one of the league’s most destructive slot weapons. In 2014, Cobb scored four more touchdowns from the slot than any other receiver and gained significantly more yards per route run from the slot than any other wide out."

Cobb can also be a luxury in the return game, which hasn't necessarily been seen in recent memory.

He ran back just four punts last season, averaging 13.5 yards per return. However, during his first two seasons, Cobb ran back a touchdown in each, including one on a kick return in the 2011 season opener. As his role increased offensively, the Packers began using Cobb less and less on special teams.

It's another dynamic to Cobb's game that pairs well with his ability to provide an explosive presence from the slot.

After capping off a 2016 season in which Cobb had the second-highest catch percentage and fewest amount of drops than any wide receiver in the NFL with more than 84 targets, including the lowest drop rate of any receiver, Cobb carried his consistent hands into the playoffs.

In the Wild Card win against the Giants, he hauled in three touchdowns and 116 receiving yards—23.2 per catch. He caught 71.4 percent of his targets, 87.5 in the Divisional round and 66.7 percent in the NFC Championship.

Cobb is one of the more vital rotational pieces in the Packers' offense, and he usually serves as a decoy over the middle of the field to open up other passing options. He's currently the only sure-fire source of consistency in current receivers coach Luke Getsy's group.

Nelson, now 32, is going to be two seasons removed from an ACL tear, and with wide receivers, there's no telling when age will begin to serve as a factor in production. Adams, meanwhile, was tied for second in the league in receiving touchdowns and was just three yards short of eclipsing 1,000.

The downside with that? It's one season.

There's yet to be an extensive sampling size of Adams' abilities, but the arrow is trending upward for the fourth-year receiver who is expecting to be a major focal point in the passing game in 2017.

Cobb will be there as well, now entering the third year of his hefty deal, and his role will likely remain the same.

__________________________

Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].

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Comments (48)

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dobber's picture

June 06, 2017 at 12:29 pm

This should be interesting...

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

June 06, 2017 at 12:30 pm

I'm currently waiting for the shitstorm as we speak.

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slit's picture

June 06, 2017 at 02:38 pm

Zach, if you want to argue that Cobb is worth the money, fine. But the comment about Cobb being the only sure-fire consistent option at WR is laughable. Jordy Nelson has been the model of consistent play since 2010. Yes, he had a big time injury, but he looked amazing the second half of last year, and Cobb has had his fair share of injuries as well. When on the field, there is NO comparison between Jordy & Cobb. I know it's the slow season, but this is total garbage; unless you're going for the Skip Bayless angle, and in that case, bravo.

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JerseyAl's picture

June 07, 2017 at 10:41 pm

Slit, you certainly went for the Skip Bayless comment angle, so bravo to you douche waffle.

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slit's picture

June 30, 2017 at 07:30 am

Awe, grandpa is protecting his grandchildren, how cute. Easy to act tough behind that admin keyboard. You're old ass would never say that to me in person, and if you did, nighty night.

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JerseyAl's picture

June 30, 2017 at 07:54 am

This moron is calling me an internet tough guy! bye bye asswipe!

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

June 30, 2017 at 08:26 am

"Easy to act tough behind that admin keyboard" he says, from... behind a keyboard.

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JerseyAl's picture

June 30, 2017 at 08:28 am

with no name, picture, location, not his real email address, etc. But I'm the one hiding! What an ignoramus. He's gone.

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 30, 2017 at 09:14 am

Thanks Al!

Its time for a house cleaning!

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JerseyAl's picture

June 30, 2017 at 09:17 am

It's officially underway...

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 06, 2017 at 06:55 pm

I honestly didn't even want read the article based on the title alone because I knew what was going to happen.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 06:14 am

So, why did you?

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 11:41 am

truthfully I didn't read it.

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stockholder's picture

June 06, 2017 at 01:05 pm

SI was right. Still are. The same thing could happen to Adams as it did with Cobb in 2016. The only Shit I see is your pushing Drop Adams as opposed to Cobb. Even Nelson, even are new TE's. And yes even the new running game. Ok you win. Adams is the entire offense. I look for him to be that all -pro. Let's set that bar higher than anyone on the offense. You'll throw this entire offense under the bus to try and say Adams will be the next Jerry Rice. Go take a dump someplace else. He doesn't have the sand to make it.

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

June 06, 2017 at 01:31 pm

Dude. What the hell are you talking about?

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gr7070's picture

June 06, 2017 at 03:16 pm

He has no idea.

Unfortunately I have to ask you the same thing regarding your article. You reference year old quotes when PFF has more recent, damning things to say on Cobb.

Football Outsiders had Cobb dropping drastically in 2015 and 2016 vs. 2014.

You reference Cobb's abilities from years ago while brushing aside his poor, more recent performances.

It's ok. Not all Packers are amazing. And the amazing one's eventually go bad.

Meet *2017* Randall Cobb.

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gr7070's picture

June 06, 2017 at 04:02 pm

Cobb is about the 15th highest paid WR (AAV) in 2017.

He was 53, 44 ranked per FO in '15 and 16.

That by it's very definition is overpaid.

It's not like his performance and salary were even remotely close.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:47 am

I really liked you in Slingblade.

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billybobton's picture

June 06, 2017 at 01:36 pm

If you look at the 10million dollar cobb with jordy then a huge fall without jordy.....then compare dropvante with jordy then without jordy (or even without cobb) you will learn a lot about who is who among WRs and who is a # 1 and who are not

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TXCHEESE's picture

June 06, 2017 at 02:44 pm

I agree that Cobb is a huge weapon for the Pack. He's almost Driver-like going over the middle...fearless. Such a tough runner for someone his size and you can be he will be receiving the punt late in the 4th quarter of a tight game. He is a chess piece the so many teams don't have.

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gr7070's picture

June 06, 2017 at 03:16 pm

There are 16 pawns on a chess board. Every team has a bunch of pedestrian chess pieces.

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TJ Coon's picture

June 06, 2017 at 02:59 pm

It seems to me that Cobb is a pretty nice cog in the machine and he's proven it many times. If you watched him in last years playoffs and you didn't like what you saw than you can't be helped and should be ignored. Aaron obviously relies on him because he trusts him.
I love Adams and his future seems bright but we have yet to see back-to-back seasons in which he has garnered enough trust from Aaron to be the wideout all Packer fans want. I have a feeling this year might be the year for him though and if that's the case, look the hell cuz that train won't be stopped with the new additions to the offense!
I guess my point is, who cares if he makes 10 million dollars. If he helps Aaron and the Green Bay Packers win the Superbowl this year, that's all that matters in this world.

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gr7070's picture

June 06, 2017 at 03:15 pm

I watched him in every game, not just the couple be played well. I didn't like what I saw in the aggregate.

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Handsback's picture

June 06, 2017 at 04:02 pm

You have 2 minutes to go in the 4th qtr, have the lead and it's 3rd down and 7 yards to go. You are against the New England Patriots. AR drops back to pass and who is he looking for to make that play? Unless he's not on the field, Cobb is the guy who comes up that play. I don't know if he's worth all that money, but I do know that Green Bay doesn't have another Cobb sitting on the shelf to pull of when needed.

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marpag1's picture

June 06, 2017 at 05:17 pm

You sure?

You have 12 seconds to go in the 4th quarter, tie score and it's 3rd and 20 at the GB 32. You are on the road against the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Divisional Game. AR drops back to pass and who is he looking for to make that play?

Jared Cook.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:38 am

You have 48 seconds, you are playing away and have point less and play-off & division title on line! Who are you looking for? You are looking for guy who can score TD for 48 yards...
Remmember?

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marpag1's picture

June 07, 2017 at 01:42 pm

If you are talking about the Week 17 matchup vs. the Bears (29 December 2013), be advised that there were 46 seconds remaining, not 48. But none of that really proves anything.

Handsback clearly implied that when it comes to "crunch time," AR is looking for Cobb, and that there isn't really anyone else who fits that role. Yet when it was crunch time in Dallas with a berth in the NFCCG on the line, Rodgers went to Cook.

The truth is what dobber said below. Rodgers is looking for whoever happens to get open, and Cobb is certainly not the only option.

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Finwiz's picture

June 07, 2017 at 03:44 pm

I loved that TD in the playoffs against the Bears, but we are literally talking about ancient history in football terms. I'm not even sure that play is relevant to the 2017 Cobb anymore. I haven't seen him make many explosive plays like that in the last couple of years.

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marpag1's picture

June 07, 2017 at 04:08 pm

And on top of that, it was clearly a blown coverage by the Bears.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:45 am

"AR drops back to pass and who is he looking for to make that play?"

The open man...

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

June 06, 2017 at 05:32 pm

Cobb is overpaid, but also capable of a probowl year. I'm glad they have him. If they fall short of a Super Bowl again this year I doibt it's going to be because of Cobb.

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PatrickGB's picture

June 06, 2017 at 06:05 pm

Good article. Cobb is Aarons safety valve esp on "Broken Plays" (even when they are by design), With the cap going up every year I agree that Cobb is not overpaid. But he does need Jordy to help him keep from being plastered in coverage. Nelson just might hit the wall speed-wise but he has the skills to play the slot as well. Cobb's role on the inside routes may be taken up with the new TE's. OR conversely the new TE's may free up Cobb. Time will tell. I expect good things and don't begrudge his cap numbers. GB seldom cuts players due to cap numbers.

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wgbeethree's picture

June 06, 2017 at 11:49 pm

When healthy Cobb is a stud.

He was hurt all of 15 and a large chunk of 16.

If you take the 9 games he was healthy in 16 (first 6 and playoffs) and extrapolate those over 16 games he would have finished in the top ten in receptions, yards, and TDs.

The real question IMO is whether he just had a string of bad luck or is injury prone.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 02:37 am

I think you made a pretty good argument, Zach. Cobb had no drops in 2016, but well for you not to include his career numbers, where he has shown good, horrendous, and overall a bit below average hands. That's good persuasive writing - focus on good stats and ignore years where he was bad or average, a nice glossing over of the facts. [I don't mean that as an insult, BTW: persuasive writing is something I had to learn to do on behalf of my clients over the years.]

He is versatile in the sense that he is a decent KR (25.96 career average) and a good PR (9.58 yd average, though he has been known to muff some punts). It looked like he could be a multiple option threat at RB in 2012 and 2013, but '14, '15 and '16 he has been very pedestrian there, nothing like the dynamism that Monty brings. He has always been a slot only receiver, and that did not change in '15 or '16. Career Yd/rec of 8.8 as a boundary receiver through 2014; looks like he got up to 9.58 yds/rec as a boundary WR using your stats from the article in 2016.

I do think there is an excellent chance of Cobb earning his cap savings number ($6.125M), a decent chance of him rebounding to earn most of his cash earnings ($9.4M), though I don't see much chance of Cobb's performance meriting his cap number. One area where Cobb excels is in chemistry with AR, both on scrambles and inside the 10 yard line, where AR is the best QB in the NFL with a 67% completion rate (much higher than Brady, Brees, etc.) 24 TDs with zero INTs, and I think Cobb deserves some credit to those numbers.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:15 am

The chief issue, in my mind, regarding the production of Cobb and his ability to earn his contract is competition at the position he's best-suited to play: slot receiver. Jordy Nelson proved to be very productive out of the slot last season and will likely continue to see snaps there. Add guys like Bennett and Kendricks who will see some snaps there, too, and Cobb is going to be forced to play more on the outside...where his numbers haven't been nearly so good.

That said, the Pats make this work with multiple players that are primarily slot receivers in their traits (Amendola, Edelman, Mitchell) and without the presence of a threatening outside WR. The Packer offensive personnel are already starting to look like NEs...

Add in edit:
packerswire.usatoday.com/2017/05/16/jordy-nelson-was-nfls-most-efficient-slot-wr-in-2016/

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:20 am

I gave you a thumbs up, but it was for the edit!

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:24 am

WOO-HOO! ;)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:12 am

Yes, but they always seem to have someone who can get deep. In 2016 it was Chris Hogan, (17.9 ave., 680 yds on 38 recs) and Gronk's career ave is 15.0, though I suppose the ball isn't in the air that far downfield.

My cat "helped" me type this comment.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:23 am

I agree in that Gronk is dangerous all over the field, but what fraction of the offensive snaps did Gronk play last season? He only appeared in 8 games, and only parts of three of them. Last season, they became the consummate "catch-and-run" team, and opponents still couldn't stop them. And they added Brandin Cooks...another slot-type guy with dangerous quickness and speed.

Your cat is a very proficient typist...

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 08, 2017 at 01:09 am

Thanks, but "Bubba" prefers to be judged on the substance of his comment. I mean, he's not just a pretty face. I meant the post to be a reply to yours rather than a stand-alone comment, but Bubba had one paw on the touchpad and another dangling over some keys. When I remonstrated with Bubba over this, he assured me that he meant to move the cursor, since people reply to him, he doesn't reply to people. Actually, I buy that: it sounds like him.

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MarkinMadison's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:52 am

The real problem is that if Jordy has permanently lost a step (and between age and injury he probably has or will very soon) then his best position is in the slot. So do you want to have two slot receivers making north of $9M a year each? And its great having Bennett and Kendricks in the fold, but where in this collective TE/WR group is the deep threat? Same problem, different year.

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Arthur Jackson's picture

June 07, 2017 at 11:22 am

Nelson has three good years left. That said Cobb is only overpaid because he was injured. The next preseason game after Nelson went out Cobb suffered a severe shoulder injury that, if not for Nelson being gone, would have undoubtedly kept him off the field for at least four weeks into the regular season. As it was he played most of the season one armed. That is why he is still a Packer.

People seem to forget in 2013 Nelson was coming off a 1263 yard 15 TD season yet the Packers were building the offense around Cobb. Make no mistake Cobb is a really good player. He just needs to stay healthy.

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NitschkeFan's picture

June 08, 2017 at 01:49 am

Good grief that must've been the worst blog article I think I have ever read . Cobb Was definitely overpaid based on his performance the past two seasons . To not acknowledge that is to admit you know nothing about football .

And then the author in comments insulting the readers intelligence yet again proves how stupid he truly is .

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

June 08, 2017 at 12:37 pm

Sorry you feel that way. Thanks for reading.

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Finwiz's picture

June 08, 2017 at 01:48 pm

Wow that's pretty harsh Nitschke.
But I agree with the 2nd para - never insult your customers.

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

June 08, 2017 at 10:35 pm

Phew, it's a good thing I didn't do that.

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marpag1's picture

June 09, 2017 at 10:10 am

LOL. Ok, if you want to play it that way.

The internet never forgets.

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stockholder's picture

June 09, 2017 at 06:08 am

Pro football focus has a nice article on Cobb. MM wants to get him the ball more. You'll enjoy reading it.

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