With Aaron Rodgers, Packers Still Are Nobody's Underdog
Regardless of spread, as long as the Packers have Rodgers, they play underdog to nobody.
When the line came out this week for the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams, I have to admit, I got a little excited. 8.5 point underdogs, I wish it had been 10.
Why? Because under Mike McCarthy, the Packers seem to play their best, when the least is expected of them. Twice on Sunday night football, once in 2010 against New England and last year in Pittsburgh, the Packers took on Super-Bowl caliber teams and quarterbacks, with a backup and nearly won, despite no one giving them a chance to be successful.
It's like McCarthy famously said before the New England game, one in which the Packers were 14-point underdogs, that Green Bay was "nobody's underdog." That was one of McCarthy's best moments as head coach of the Packers. Green Bay didn't win that game with Matt Flynn, but it was close. Aaron Rodgers returned a week later and the Packers won six straight to win the Super Bowl.
Last season against the Steelers, it turned out in a similar fashion. Green Bay, with Brett Hundley at quarterback, led most of the way, before losing in overtime. Of course, this time, Rodgers wasn't able to come back and save the day, yet it was another example of Green Bay performing incredibly well as an underdog.
Fast forward to this week and again the Packers are big dogs, only this time, Rodgers is starting at quarterback. Never has the two-time MVP faced a spread like this, however against the last unbeaten team in the NFL, one loaded with talent, it seems justified.
Just don't act like the Packers don't have a shot to win this game -- they absolutely do and the explanation as to why is three words long -- Aaron Charles Rodgers.
In some ways, I have always felt Rodgers compared to Michael Jordan. For one, his talent is out of this world. But secondly, he carries a chip on his shoulder just like MJ did and I think Rodgers will take the big line personally.
If he does, it could mean the Packers get Rodgers at his absolute best and when that happens, Green Bay tends to win, regardless of the opponent. Certainly, other aspects will need to play well, particularly the defense and the offensive line.
Rodgers can't get sacked a bunch of times and the running game has to at least force the Rams to respect it. The secondary can't give up a bunch of big-play touchdowns and the defense needs to find some way to just contain Todd Gurley, impossible as it might seem.
At the end of the day, it's hard to see the Packers holding the Rams under 30 points. So in order to beat them, the Packers are going to need an extraordinary performance from the offense and from Rodgers.
Under McCarthy, the Packers are incredibly frustrating at times, playing down to competition at times, but also raising its level of play against elite teams. Green Bay may not win the game Sunday, but I don't think it will get blown out.
The Packers are a flawed team but as long as they have Rodgers, they still, are nobody's underdog.
__________________________
Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru
Comments (69)
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 11:30 am
BS. With Mike McCarthy they are often underdogs.
KenEllis
October 25, 2018 at 12:16 pm
The Packers are underdogs this Sunday, they will be underdogs next Sunday, and will be underdogs in Minnesota 4 weeks.
Some folks are still operating under the assumption that the Packers are favorites to return to the Super Bowl, but 2010 was a long time ago and that team has almost completely turned over.
GBPDAN1
October 25, 2018 at 06:25 pm
Well, they sure looked like underdogs against Washington and Detroit. They looked like underdogs the first half of the Bears game and parts of the 49ers game. We are underdogs this week and next week.
The Packers deserve to be big underdogs on the road against the best team in the NFL so far. This will be our 3rd away game this year and the first 2 away games were embarrassing blow outs to Mediocre teams.
I really hope this offense gets their act together after the bye so we can go on a run. Its time to play 60 minutes of respectable football. Go Pack
Lare
October 25, 2018 at 06:45 pm
Rodgers is a big reason why the Packers are underdogs this week. He needs to:
1. Hand the ball off more to the running backs (namely Jones).
2. Get the play off quicker so he doesn't waste timeouts.
3. Quit holding the ball, get rid of it quicker.
4. Pass to the open receivers, even if it's for shorter routes.
5. Concentrate of throwing passes accurately. Quit throwing the ball at WR's feet or 5' over their heads.
The success of the Packers rides on Rodgers shoulders. He needs to start helping them get to a level better than just above average.
TKWorldWide
October 26, 2018 at 06:09 am
The first 4 seem very easy to do. The 5th one? I don’t know. We are so used to seeing 12 be so accurate; I’d think the coaches would have an idea what’s going on there. Is it POSSIBLE that it’s related to the knee? Yes. Is that the cause? Beats me.
pacman
October 25, 2018 at 11:42 am
AR is not MJ - especially this year. He is still not completely AR yet for a full game. It would be great if he was.
And football is more of a team sport that basketball.
Skip greenBayless
October 25, 2018 at 12:47 pm
How about Willis Reed? I know Collinsworth also used that comparison a few weeks ago.
Big_Mel_75
October 25, 2018 at 11:44 am
We won't cover the spread. Rams are a good team and we are not. Rodger's can only cover so many flaws. Agree with Pacman as BBall isn't a team sport like football.
TarynsEyes
October 25, 2018 at 11:54 am
The game play of the Packers is the underdog to the Rams game play. This is the basis of the spread being 9 points.
Rodgers is what kept this spread from being 13 or more and that is absolutely correct. We can also understand that the 9 points makes for an easier 50/50 betting which is a main focal point for sports books.
The defense of GB has a lot to do with this spread also. Can they hold the Rams to 24 or less,which is a number that Rodgers can produce and grab a win. 9 points says not likely and why i said elsewhere recently, Pettine needs to show he isn't Capers.
It's one thing to say you're nobody's underdog and another thing to play like you're not anybody's underdog.
The Packers this season to date, regardless of whichever excuse you may use of your on hand list, have played and are underdogs to some teams and still exude the undeniable ability to play to the lower competition, which is...underdog like.
Jordan
October 26, 2018 at 01:19 am
If the Packers offense scores 25 points and they lose, in your mind, it won't be Aaron Rodgers fault. It's the Packers defense's fault. Got it.
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 11:57 am
just wait till the Pack get post bye week blown out by the Rams. Then we'll all realize that even with Rodgers, GB is often an underdog and the whole premise of this article is pure and utter homer blinder BS.
fastmoving
October 25, 2018 at 03:13 pm
you probably missed it, but this kind of a homer site. And I like it that way. We can be critics but in the end, we are still homer.
thought thats what the whole fan concept is all about.
maybe you can found a Packers complainer site, bet you find some crybabies/fire everyone/we much smarter from the couch crowd who will like it. complet homer free….
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 03:23 pm
I prefer "realist". And I'm more than happy to blow flowers up the Packers ass when they are a better than average football team, or when their coach isn't wasting the prime years of one of the best QB's in the history of the league. Till then, enjoy those blinders. Sun reflecting off the snow can be harsh.
TKWorldWide
October 25, 2018 at 04:42 pm
Not at all sure the Packers would like their flowers that way.
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 05:29 pm
Never know.
PeteK
October 25, 2018 at 06:47 pm
I guess you forgot about the Vikings game , if Adams doesn't fumble that TD ,we win rather handily . That game gives me hope because the viking are a Super Bowl contender.
4thand10
October 26, 2018 at 12:04 am
The Packers ran the ball well against the Vikings, until they quit running, they ran the ball well against Washington and Detroit...until they quit or the game dictated other plays. If the Packers can run against Suh and the rams and the game doesn’t get out of hand (special teams blunders or turnovers) they definitely have a shot...against anyone. I’m still not convinced on the new receivers and think they should have brought in another vet but that’s my own personal opinion. If Breeland is what I think he is....we will have a Really good secondary. I guess we’ll see what happens. They are underdogs just based on records. This is why the games are played...to see what happens.
fastmoving
October 26, 2018 at 06:06 am
So I guess that means NO for a Packers """realists""" website? But nice that you think your eyes are sharp. So you can always see how things really are. And Im sure you know exactly how they should be to win way more then the Packers do.
all realists know all the weak points and the easy fixes. thats why they posting here.
in the end, I enjoy the ride because I know we can win every game and we can compete every season. thats good enough for me as a football fan.
TKWorldWide
October 26, 2018 at 06:14 am
I imagine a continuum with “blind homer” on one end and “extreme eeyore” on the other. Eveybody has their own idea where they’d place themselves, but I think, as with many things, an accurate plotting would make a classic bell curve.
The closer you get to either extreme, the more unpleasant it becomes to listen to/read posts from those folks.
Just my .02.
(But today, and today only, I’ll let you have it for half price!)
dobber
October 26, 2018 at 03:01 pm
Just about everyone views themselves as a realist to some degree...it's just a matter of which reality you subscribe to.
Most people who jump out and say, "I'm a realist, you're a homer" aren't doing much more than saying, "I think you're wrong." It has very little to do with realism.
fastmoving
October 26, 2018 at 03:30 pm
well said. just like everyone views himself as normal. how else can you live with yourself.
but a little self reflection would be nice sometimes.
maybe Im not so perfect by myself like I think other people should be?
Nobody is anywhere near and the smarter guys are aware about that.
the guys with the biggest self-confidence, often have the least reason for acting that way. but I guess thats sometimes enough these days. but that makes it any better……..
TKWorldWide
October 26, 2018 at 06:38 pm
A very realistic take. Well done, señor!
fastmoving
October 27, 2018 at 05:29 am
thanks man, as a real realist that was just realistic to me (!!), at least in my (!!) real world.
besides that I will always stay a homer for real...……...
have a great weekend
ChrisPeterson
October 26, 2018 at 09:40 am
I am a Homer but I am also tough on the Packers. I just don't think they will get blown out. I don't think they will either. My main point is that when you least expect it sometimes is when this team plays its best football.
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 12:01 pm
Remaining schedule:
@Rams - L (underdogs)
@Patriots - L (underdogs)
Dolphins - W
@Seahawks - W
@Vikings - L (underdogs)
Cardinals - W
Falcons - L
@Bears - L (potentially underdogs)
@Jets - W
Lions - W
8-7-1. Miss the playoffs.
GBPDAN1
October 25, 2018 at 06:38 pm
If healthy, we will beat the Falcons at home and the Bears again. 10-5-1..... I hope...lol
NickPerry
October 26, 2018 at 06:19 am
Well Pete if that happens and by the way they've played nobody can say it's not a possibility, Mike McCarthy will be a "Highly Successful Head Coach" somewhere else.
I happen to think McCarthy HAS been a hell of a Head Coach. But I also believe to my core after 13 years he's no longer that for the Packers. After 13 years it's just the way it goes 99.9% of the time.
It also scares the hell out of me. I don't have much faith at all in Murphy to pick the right successor or to even fire McCarthy after a 8-7-1 record for that matter.
stockholder
October 26, 2018 at 07:51 am
Scares the Hell out of me? Thats whats been keeping me in MMs corner. Murphy Can't! The ship will be empty. The loyalty has been to TT. The decisions before TTs replacement, showed us why. You can't tell me everyone doesn't have their fingers crossed on Gute. And the real problem is which way Arron Rodgers is headed. Things have always gotten ugly after any winning program changes. Ownerships ,colleges, any business has had trouble. Were dealing with windows of opportunity. Change/Uncertainty! The result is never pretty. Unless you have people that can lead through change. Murphy has waited until he's been Forced. But whats Best for the Packers? You can't Bully if you lack the personal. Trying to out think Gute or MM won't get wins. This ship needs to learn how to float first, before weathering the storm of replacing MM.
ShanghaiKid
October 25, 2018 at 12:10 pm
They’re underdogs for the simple fact that they have shown no signs of playing well in all facets for 4 quarters. Having Rodgers carry this team isn’t enough. He hasn’t been the same this year, he’s been just a tick off.
When he’s a tick off, you can see the team can’t compensate and give him a boost. (See WAS and DET games) It’s time for the team around Rodgers to wake the hell up and play football. The next five weeks are going to determine the season. Buckle up.
jeremyjjbrown
October 25, 2018 at 12:10 pm
On the play AR got hurt he had Jimmy Graham wide open on the check down. There is no way he didn't see it. He held the ball anyways and got himself hurt. He's just as responsible for 3-2-1 as anyone else on that team.
RCPackerFan
October 25, 2018 at 12:16 pm
I have been saying it and I will continue to say it up until game time. I am feeling optimistic about this game.
McCarthy is 9-2 coming out of bye's. 1 of those losses was last year with Hundley as the QB. The other loss was Rodgers first year as a starting QB.
Rodgers should be feeling a lot better after a week off.
We are getting back 3 starters and key players. Randall Cobb who is Rodgers safety net player also our Punt Returner. Allison other then 1 bad game had played really well. And Alexander who I provides an energy that has been lacking to the defense.
Also we will get to see our CB's at full strength really for the first time this year, also with Breeland added.
The WR group will be the deepest we have had in a while. Adams, Cobb, Allison, MVS & EQ all can play. Add in the TE's, and Montgomery as a weapon and we have the potential for a lethal passing attack.
I would not be surprised if they have have some surprises coming out of the bye. Whether its scheme related, or personnel related, I think we will see some changes made.
I don't know if they will win, but I'm feeling good about the game.
Honestly though the key isn't just about this game its the next 5. They need to come away with no worse then a 3-2 record. Its going to be tough, but can be done.
Like I said I'm feeling optimistic about it!
Fire_Gute
October 25, 2018 at 02:53 pm
Saying Cobb and Allison are coming back is one of the problems with the talent on this team. Cobb would be a 4 on the rams if he made the team, Allison wouldn't make it.
EdsLaces
October 25, 2018 at 12:16 pm
I literally hate myself for saying this, but I know every last one of you have it tucked away in the back of your mind. We will not be the same ....ever ....without Jordy. These slow developing plays who was always there? Jordy. 3rd and 8 who got the ball ? Jordy. We have talent all over the field for sure, but there was just something insanely perfect about the 12/87 combo.
Oppy
October 25, 2018 at 12:39 pm
I haven't thought about Jordy Nelson since the Packers released him.
What amazes me is how many otherwise sharp and informed packers fans talk about "these slow developing plays", (insinuating there is a problem with play calling) when Aaron Rodgers doesn't get the ball out of his hands in under 4 seconds... the only pass play you'll find where the ball is in the QB's hands for more than 3 or 4 seconds by design is a hail mary.
People need to wake up and face facts. There are viable targets on the field to throw to. Rodgers still holds the ball too long often refusing to take a check down. It is negatively affecting the offense. If the QB starts executing the offense, the offense starts moving the chains.
Make no mistake, the Packers biggest problems so far in 2018 are a wildly inconsistent defense, and a QB who is not getting the ball out of his hand on time and either not seeing or eschewing open options in the pass game. It's certainly not the loss of Jordy Nelson.
Skip greenBayless
October 25, 2018 at 01:08 pm
Same here Since 61. Jordy never entered my mind this year. Not once until this Eddie mentioned him. Is this Eddie a little kid in the picture. If he is the comment would make sense as I could see a 7 year old saying something like that. i was under the impression he was a man.
Since'61
October 25, 2018 at 01:49 pm
Thanks Dash, but you are replying to Oppy. My comment follows below. Since '61
Skip greenBayless
October 25, 2018 at 04:01 pm
Sorry about that Since 61. You are correct. Why I got you two mixed up is beyond me.
Since'61
October 25, 2018 at 04:17 pm
No worries. It's all good. Thanks, Since '61
EdsLaces
October 26, 2018 at 08:50 am
The kid is my son ....smarta$$.
Pierre
October 25, 2018 at 10:25 pm
Agree 100% that Rodgers is holding the ball too long. He always has tried to extend plays running around. It leads to a lot of holding penalties by the OL and fumbles by him.
We saw that he was most effective against the 49ers hitting sideline passes to the young receivers when it was the end of the game and he had to move the team down the field in a quick manner. Night and day difference from how he plays at the start of the game(s). He holds the ball looking for a ball WIDE OPEN receiver rather than one a step ahead of the defender to lead them in stride. It has lead to numerous strips this season already.
He also needs to stop throwing the ball out of bounds and put the ball up to his receivers so they can make a play on the ball. That’s their job and they are not going to be WIDE OPEN each pass play. If Rodgers does not improve his release time with passes to hit receivers more quickly the Ram defensive front will be sacking him and causing more fumbles. He cannot expect his offensive line to protect past 3-4 seconds on pass plays especially against the Ram defense. MM needs to set the 2.5 second clock in practice again to get Rodgers throwing quickly. Idk why Rodgers cannot get that plan of attack down for the whole of one game. If he would just do this more this game they actually can beat the Rams!!
Skip greenBayless
October 25, 2018 at 01:05 pm
You should hate yourself for saying that. I totally agree.
TKWorldWide
October 25, 2018 at 01:13 pm
Joan Jett hates herself for loving you.
Skip greenBayless
October 25, 2018 at 01:23 pm
So does Jayne Hathaway.
TKWorldWide
October 25, 2018 at 04:26 pm
Never apologize for being Simply Irresistible.
I never do.
;)
BradHTX
October 26, 2018 at 06:50 am
I’d accuse you of have a bad reputation, but I don’t think you’d give a damn.
PeteK
October 25, 2018 at 06:54 pm
That does haunt me........ but Halloween will be over next week. Allison and Scantling and our improved running game will prevail. On to Thanksgiving !
12guage
October 25, 2018 at 12:57 pm
Would love it if they would bring kumerow off i.r. and watch that connection between Aaron and him. I think he may turn into our new jordy. Aaron really raved about him in training camp and there was no disputing his talent in the preseason. Fat chance of that happening...
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 02:40 pm
Lets start with playing Aaron Jones before we start clammering for Kumerow to be on the field..
TKWorldWide
October 25, 2018 at 04:29 pm
Jared Abbrederis?
Fire_Gute
October 25, 2018 at 02:55 pm
Really fat chance of it happening this week. Can't happen until after week 8. I'm pretty sure he will see the field in week 11 or 12 when we're out of it and someone is hurt. No reason not to at that point
pacman
October 25, 2018 at 01:49 pm
It comes down to having AR for a qb and for the last 8 years after a long ago SB, we have not been able to put a really great team together. My son in law from Miami hates when I complain about going to the playoffs for so many years without getting to the SB. Miami wasted Marino too.
We might get lucky this week so we will all watch. But most of us realize we probably won't.
If I really had this option, I would IR Rodgers, get 2 great first round picks, say thank you and good bye to CM, Cobbs, Perry, etc. and try to build up again while we still have Rodgers.
Since'61
October 25, 2018 at 02:03 pm
The Packers have several players who need to play up to their salary levels, starting with this weeks game against the Rams. On offense this means Rodgers, Adams, Graham, Cobb, Bak and Bulaga. Adams has played well and Bak has been great but the others need to play at a level commensurate with their salaries. Bulaga has been playing though injuries but that is apparently over. NO injuries, no excuses.
On defense, Daniels, CM3, Perry and HHCD need to get it in gear. I don't expect much from Perry but anything would be an improvement at this point. Daniels performance has been disappointing so far this season and CM3 has been much worse. HHCD has been good at times but nothing close to solid safety play.
It's time for our alledged star players to show up and make plays. They are being paid quite well to make some big plays.
Rodgers in particular needs to run the offense as it's designed. That means not checking out of running plays as often as he does and hitting his receivers when they are open. Let play makers like Adams, Jones, Graham and Cobb make plays by getting them the ball. Running the scramble drill and looking for a big play doesn't work on every down. Rodgers is a great player but he needs to remember that he is not the only player who can make plays. That is why he has RBs and WRs. Take what the defense gives, move the chains and score points.
No injuries, no excuses, it's time to play smart, solid football for 60 minutes. It's time for our "stars" to step up and make plays. Players not plays. Thanks, Since '61
pacman
October 25, 2018 at 02:13 pm
"Players not plays"
I hate that phrase! It's both!!
Since'61
October 25, 2018 at 04:23 pm
True, except that plays are judged through the lens of the result of the play and/or the final score. Good or bad it's the players who get it done or not.
Mike Holmgren once told me when I congratulated him on calling a good game, "Amateurs focus on play calling, the professionals focus on the execution. If the players get it done the play calls are all good". Another way of saying players not plays.
Speaking for myself I'm in no position to disagree with Mike Holmgren. Thanks, Since '61
TKWorldWide
October 25, 2018 at 07:37 pm
When did you talk to him? That is awesome. He was definitely an alpha.
I also remember one of GB’s players back then (might have been Favre, I fail to recall) saying that a certain stretch play was looking bad in practice because “Edgar Bennett isn’t Barry Sanders”.
I believe that would be an example of players AND plays.
Since'61
October 25, 2018 at 06:57 pm
TK - I had a contract for a number of years with the NFL for some non-football consulting work. As a result I made numerous trips to Green Bay (and other NFL cities) from '94 to '96 as part of one of the projects I was working on.
One of my trips took place during October '95 while the Packers had home games against the Lions and the Vikings. The Packers won both games pretty handily. After the Vikings game I saw Mike in the building ( I had previously met him on an earlier trip) so I congratulated him on the Vikings game and on his play calling. He thanked me and told me, "Amatuers focus on the play calling. the professionals focus on the execution."
I saw him and spoke with him a few times during my visits, he was great, very gregarious and easy going. Always took the time to say hello and ask if I needed anything. Great coach and a great person. Thanks, Since '61
TKWorldWide
October 25, 2018 at 07:36 pm
That
Is
Awesome!!
Since'61
October 26, 2018 at 11:25 am
I was very fortunate. My travels enabled me to meet and speak with many NFL executives, coaches and players back in the late 80s and into the mid '90s. The league was a much better place back then than it is now. Thanks, Since '61
pacman
October 25, 2018 at 09:57 pm
That's a great quote. (But that is not what it means.)
That's some nice football history. Good for you.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 25, 2018 at 11:53 pm
A well-executed play is by definition almost always going to work. It is just a tautology. Of course it is players, but it is also plays.
It is a great anecdote though.
Since'61
October 26, 2018 at 12:03 pm
Tautology, a great word TGR! Obviously certain play calls are better than others depending on down, distance, score, time remaining etc... But it is still up to players to execute and win their one on one battles.
What Holmgren was trying to say is that even the right play call doesn't matter if it is not executed effectively. Thanks, Since '61
JDK52
October 25, 2018 at 02:11 pm
I feel like being a fan for this one. Screw all the downers who are determined to distance themselves from any emotional "risk" by actually feeling optimistic about a win.
This is going to be such a great game. Watching the Packers win is going to be so much fun!
Tundraboy
October 25, 2018 at 03:33 pm
Yes they are underdogs with Rodgers and without, especially the way both are playing right now. I hope they all step up their game this week.
Lphill
October 25, 2018 at 03:35 pm
Packers can win this game it's not unrealistic.
Point-Packer
October 25, 2018 at 05:32 pm
IF GB is going to beat the Rams they have to do the following:
1) Put up 30 or more points
2) Limit TO's to 1 or less.
3) Stop the Ram long ball and get some pressure without having to use DB's (my biggest concern)
4) Limit Gurley to under 100 (possible)
5) Give Aaron Jones 13 or more touches.
All those happen, GB wins.
Spock
October 27, 2018 at 09:25 am
You left off the best way to win: GB gets a plus 2 in the turnover battle. That should be all it takes and I'm hoping Alexander gets at least one!
Lphill
October 25, 2018 at 07:41 pm
Geoff stats and Rodgers stats pretty similar and that's with Rodgers and a bad knee so the difference is the Rams running game which they depend on more and not the arm of Geoff . A healed Rodgers and more touches by Jones may even the field.
Jordan
October 26, 2018 at 01:48 am
Those stats are a little deceiving. Goff is really, really good. You can watch an entire Rams game (condensed version) in about 30 minutes if you have NFL Game Pass to see for yourself.
The Packers will be catching a huge break if Cooper Kupp can't play.
The Rams really aren't that much better than the Vikings in my opinion, but they do play fast for all 4 quarters. They don't take plays off. They bring it on both sides of the ball for all 4 quarters. I'm not impressed with the Rams secondary (no offense to Sam Shields). The Packers should win.
Spock
October 27, 2018 at 09:27 am
Well, once again the game will not be shown in Tucson so I'll be listening to Wayne and Larry on Sirius. The good news is that every game I haven't been able to watch the Packers typically win, lol.
Go, Pack, Go!