A trip to Super Bowl XLIX is on the line when the Green Bay Packers (13-4) travel to Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (13-4) in the NFC Championship Game at CenturyLink Field.

Here’s five things to watch and a prediction: 

1. Avoiding Rich 

Did the Packers intentionally avoid Richard Sherman back in Week 1? Depends on your interpretation of avoid. There was an obvious attempt to move Jordy Nelson around and away from Sherman, while most passing downs sacrificed a receiver such as Jarrett Boykin’s to Sherman’s preferred side. No offense should ever cut the field in half, but the bigger issue in the opener was Green Bay’s inability to create open receivers. Sherman wasn’t targeted because his receiver wasn’t open. Nelson and Randall Cobb struggled to create separation. No receiver averaged more than 10 yards per catch, and the Packers only created one passing play over 20 yards. The Packers now have a broader range of receiving targets, with rookies Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers developing into legitimate pass-catchers over the last 16 games. Given Aaron Rodgers’ likely inability to buy time outside the pocket, it will be vitally important for the Packers receivers to provide more passing windows this time around. There’s no reason to avoid any player or either side of the field. 

2. New Wrinkles

The Packers defense gave up 34 points and 207 rushing yards the first go-around in Seattle, but two new wrinkles—and the absence of a few others—might help now. Green Bay has dumped the “quad” defense, replaced A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones as regular players and introduced the NASCAR pressure package and Clay Matthews at inside linebacker. The quad was a disaster and Hawk and Jones were outmatched physically inside, missing five tackles. Meanwhile, the NASCAR look has been successful, especially on third down, and could be used in a greater capacity Sunday to help contain Russell Wilson and his scrambling abilities. Four athletic rushers and a spy behind them is an attractive option to help neutralize Wilson’s unpredictability. Matthews’ repositioning from the edge to the inside started a drastic turnaround for the run defense. The Packers can’t give up 200-plus rushing yards and expect to win. Having Matthews and the physical Sam Barrington inside gives Green Bay a much better chance to force the Seahawks to grind for yards on the ground. Then again, nothing scheme-wise will matter if the Packers miss 18 tackles again. 

3. Red Hot Julius Peppers

Veteran Julius Peppers has that veteran craving for a Super Bowl, much like Charles Woodson back in 2010. He’ll speak to the team before Sunday, but he’ll make his loudest contribution between the white lines. The Packers have limited his snaps and he’s been better off for it, with splash plays in each of the last three games. Peppers can help his new team get back to the Super Bowl with more Sunday, especially considering Seattle’s shaky situation at right tackle. Rookie starter Justin Britt is questionable with a knee injury, and if he doesn’t play, 2013 undrafted free agent Alvin Bailey will start. Either way, the opportunity is a great one for Peppers. It would be another notch on Ted Thompson’s already impressive belt if Peppers was a difference maker in back-to-back games on another improbable run to the Super Bowl.  

4. Confidence Builder?

A game four months and 16 games ago probably doesn’t mean much to Mike McCarthy, but if there’s anything the Packers can take away from the opener, it’s that a highly competitive game through the first three quarters or so turned on its head due to self-inflicted wounds. An interception on the first play of the second half. A rushed fourth down play near midfield. A blown protection from a backup right tackle resulting in a safety. Two killer penalties on Seattle’s dagger drive. Make those kind of mistakes against the defending champs and a 20-point loss was predictable. But the Packers shouldn’t feel like going into Seattle is an impossible task. The Panthers were only down a touchdown going into the fourth quarter last week, and it took an interception for a score in the red zone to finally put the game away. Winning in Seattle won’t be easy, but the Packers will be in position to win the game if some of the egregious mistakes from the opener are cleaned up. Bank on it. 

5. In Lacy’s Hands

The Packers are bringing a gimpy quarterback into a tough atmosphere to face a historically good defense with potentially wet and windy conditions in the forecast. The best counter to those obstacles is having a fresh, (mostly) healthy and talented running back and an offensive line that has molded into one of the game’s best this season. This will always be Rodgers’ team, and Mike McCarthy will always side with putting the biggest games on his quarterback’s shoulders. But why wouldn’t this be on Lacy to power a win? The Seahawks are a top-2 defense in rushing yards and yards per carry, but Seattle has lost this season when opponents have run the football—with games against Kansas City and Dallas sticking out as obvious examples. Nothing about the task will be easy, but success in the run game will keep the Packers on schedule on offense while also keeping the Green Bay defense off the field. Lacy has rushed for 97 or more yards in six of the last seven games, and he’s currently on a 10-game run with 100 or more yards from scrimmage. He needs to be productive for Green Bay to get to the Super Bowl. 

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Packers 23 (12-5)

The Packers weren’t 20 points worse than Seattle back in September, and many of Green Bay’s internal improvements—running the ball, stopping the run and broadening the receiving pool—match up nicely with areas the Seahawks exploited in Week 1. I’d like the Packers by three points if Aaron Rodgers was closer to 100 percent. But I think the calf injury and the immobility it has caused is worth a touchdown against Seattle’s defense, and those lost points will be enough to send Seattle back to the Super Bowl for a second straight season. 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].