Bears vs Packers: Gameday Preview - 2023 Week 18

Packers are battling for a playoff spot today... but this is the Super Bowl for the Bears.

The last time the Packers played the Bears was opening day. They went into Chicago on Jordan Love's first game as the starter and spanked the Bears 38-20, earning their 9th straight win in the series.

Jordan Love had his first 3 touchdown, 0 interception game of his career and Quay Walker got a pick 6.

The Bears have improved on offense and defense since Week 1... but so have the Packers.

 

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Jordan Love is fresh off his fifth 3 touchdown, 0 interception game of the season and he's looking like a star in the making as he continues to improve every week.

He's been successful with a rotation of unheralded receivers, throwing to whoever happens to be healthy each week.

Luke Mugrave, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks are all questionable to play today. This leaves a lot of questions (see what I did there) in the passing game. The good news is that this offense doesn't depend on one specific receiver the way they used to lean on Davante Adams or Jordy Nelson.

Guys like Bo Melon, Tucker Kraft, and Malik Heath have all come up big.

Today, whichever receivers are healthy, will be facing a beat-up Chicago secondary,

Jaylon Johnson, who is a developing into a premier cornerback for the Bears, and is arguable their best player, is doubtful to play with a shoulder injury. On the other side, Kyler Gordan was limited in practice with a calf injury and is listed as Questionable. Reserve cornerback Josh Blackwell should see a lot of snaps today, as will rookie Tyrique Stevenson. Stevenson has been developing into a good player in his own right, and came up with a couple interceptions against the Falcons, giving him 4 in his last 5 games.

Turnovers have been a big part of Chicago's recent hot 4-1 streak.

The Bears have 18 takeaways in their last 6 games. They have been aggressively going after the ball. Linebacker Tremaine Edwards is tied for the team lead with 4 interceptions and linebacker TJ Edwards has 3 of his own.

Protecting the ball will be critical, and Jordan Love will need to be careful with shallow routes in the middle of the field. Recent Packers gameplans have really stretched the short routes horizontally with Tucker Kraft. These routes should be a staple today, as should screens to Aaron Jones, who led the team with 86 receiving yards the last time they played. Keeping passes away from the linebackers will be important.

If Christian Watson (6'4) is able to play, he could be a tough matchup for Gordon (6'0), Stevenson (6'0), and Blackwell (5'11). Blackwell, however, has 4.3-range speed to keep up with guys like Christian Watson and Bo Melton. However, if Watson and Melton both play, the Packers could stretch the field in a way the Bears can't cover with guys like Jaquan Brisker (who never was a speed guy) and Eddie Jackson (who's speed is not what it used to be). 

For any of that to work, the Packers will need to give Love time. Elgton Jenkins is listed as questionable, which could create an issue if the Packers can't contain defensive lineman Justin Jones, who has 4.5 sacks.

On the edge, Montez Sweat, who the Bears traded for mid-season, has had an immediate impact and has 6 sacks in his 8 games since joining the team.

Green Bay can limit Sweat's effectiveness with a solid run game. However, the Bears rank number 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed (1,344) and number 4 in yards per carry allowed (3.7).

Aaron Jones has been hot for his last two games, racking up back to back 120+ yard outings, with at least 20 carries each time. He's averaged 6.0 yards per carry in each of the last two games. However, Jones is at his best reading zone blocks and slicing through seams. If Elgton Jenkins can't go, or isn't 100 percent, his impact could be limited.

The Packers will need Jones to shoulder the bulk of the carries today, because AJ Dillon is out with a neck injury.

Green Bay might need to get creative with their game plan if the run game fizzles, and hopefully will have something better than a half-dozen Jayden Reed end-arounds.

Matt LaFleur might actually be the most important person in the Packers offense today. His pencil-whipping of Brian Flores last week was just the latest in a hot string of gameplans that has launched this offense to one of highest rankings in the league over the last couple of months.

With the offense banged up, he'll need to find some weaknesses to exploit - which may not be easy given how well the Bears have played lately.

 

 

WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE

Justin Fields has been, at best, an inconsistent passer throughout his career.

But he's coming off what might be his best game ever against Atlanta. He was patient in the pocket and had a lot of nice touch passes that displayed accuracy he hasn't previously shown.

DJ Moore is a real weapon. As the season has progressed, he's developed a strong rapport with Fields. They are a dangerous combination and are both playing better than they did when the Packers held Moore to 2 catches for 25 yards in their first meeting.

The Packers will have Jaire Alexander back this week, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be. 

Deep threat Darnell Mooney is out with a concussion, but tight end Cole Kmet is a unique challenge and is second on the team with 678 yards and 6 touchdowns.

De'Vondre Campbell, who is returning to the lineup, and Quay Walker, will have to take turns covering Kmet and spying on Fields. Isaiah McDuffie, who has played well in Campbell's absence, is listed as Doubtful.

Preston Smith has been coming on strong lately, but is questionable with an ankle injury. As good as he's been playing, Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness, who both have superior speed, may be a better line up today. Justin Fields is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the game and the Packers will have to do more than just hold the edge to contain him. They need to pursue without overpursuing.

They'll also need to be active in plugging holes on run defense against a team that ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards.

Justin Fields leads the team in rushing yards, but Khalil Herbert is their top back and, while he's been inconsistent, he's been hot the last two week. He has 236 rushing yards combined in his last two games, after back to back weeks with 8 yards each.

The Packers limited Khalil Herbert to 27 yards on 9 carries in Week 1. He's dealing with a back injury, but still may play. Either way, part-time starter D'Onta Foreman and changeup back Roschon Johnson should be expected to get carries and both have proven serviceable in a running back committee that serves as a complement to the quarterback's running.

Even without Mooney (and potentially Herbert), this is a group that can create explosive plays. Over the last two games, Justin Fields has ben doing a better job finding checkdowns, as well.

This is a confident offense and they are not going up against a very good defense.

The Packers looked inspired last week against a team with a 3rd-string quarterback, but they'll have a tougher time against a hot Justin Fields.

Jaire Alexander and De'Vondre Campbell are both returning to the lineup and should be playing with attitude given the chatter around their situations.

Hopefully, they provide a spark in front of what should be a very energetic home crowd.

 

OTHER NOTES

The Packers are 1-6 when Jordan Love throws an interception.

The Bears defense leads the NFL with 22 interceptions.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Bears may not be a good team, but they are a confident team - and they're coming off their best game of the season.

Justin Fields is starting to look like an NFL quarterback and the Packers have shown a knack for letting opposing quarterbacks produce well above their baseline.

The Packers, for all their faults, have been gelling lately and the offense has become a unit that can take over a game.

And their leader, Jordan Love, has shown that he does not get rattled and no stage is too big for him. If they have all their receivers today, it will be hard for the Bears to cover them without Jaylon Johnson.

Whether or not the Packers defense will play like the Joe Barry units that play like their lives depend on it... or like a group that routinely gives XFL-level quarterbacks career days remains to be seen.

Either way, I think Jordan Love leads the Packers offense to the playoffs today with a bookend performance to go with Week 1.

Packers 38, Bears 33

 

 

 

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__________________________

Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

__________________________

3 points
 

Comments (41)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
SinceLombardi's picture

January 07, 2024 at 06:17 am

No excuses. Beat the Bears, make the playoffs, play with house money after that. I think it’s really important for MLF to win this game. His playoff, and win and in record is not good.
The Bears are playing well but let’s keep this in perspective.. it’s a home game, the Bears are far from unbeatable and it’s about time MLF didn’t get “outcoached” as he would say, in one of these games.

10 points
10
0
NickPerry's picture

January 07, 2024 at 06:47 am

"Jordan Love is fresh off his fifth 3 touchdown, 0 interception game of the season and he's looking like a star in the making as he continues to improve every week. He's been successful with a rotation of unheralded receivers, throwing to whoever happens to be healthy each week."

THIS is what has impressed me most about Love. Every week it's someone else who's injured, normally MULTIPLE someone's but it doesn't phase him. He just goes out there and does his job. When it goes well he gives all the credit to his teammates,

I'm stoked as hell for this game and Jordan Love and his "Unheralded" WRs.

9 points
9
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LambeauPlain's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:11 am

Amazing isn't? First year starter with injuries all around him and Love just steadily improves and leads. I have always been a fan of Love since his draft day in 2020. Great story and character.

After Favre...then Rodgers...many in the anti-Love camp made the safe prediction he would fail. Good odds...how in the world could Gutey be as fortunate as The Wolfman and TT? Three in a row? Impossible!

Now the safe prediction is the Packers may have their 3rd consecutive top QB.

Amazing when some teams struggle for decades (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) finding their QB leader.

4 points
4
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13TimeChamps's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:22 am

Whatever happened to the obnoxious "Love=Kizer 2.0" poster? Haven't seen him around lately. Maybe he should man up and admit he was wrong.

2 points
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NickPerry's picture

January 07, 2024 at 02:17 pm

"Now the safe prediction is the Packers may have their 3rd consecutive top QB."

Thank you for keeping perspective. Nobody wants Love to succeed more than me but I still need more. But I feel about 80% more confident than I did at the start of the season because at the start of the season I had NO IDEA where this was going.

Take care of business today. Play the Bears like you did the Vikings last week. KEEP Jones involved, use motion, and ALL those WRs and let Love COOK!

1 points
1
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Cubbygold's picture

January 07, 2024 at 07:29 am

Here we are, week 18. No promise of another Packer game for 9 months. Home game in the cold, against a cocky bears team, win and in scenario, led by an exciting and fun young group.

Can't ask for anything more than this. Gonna enjoy every last minute of this day. Go pack go!

7 points
7
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NitschkeFromTheGrave's picture

January 07, 2024 at 07:38 am

There is no question that the Bears are a different team from week 1, (Although the Bears still SUCK.) Unfortunately our weak link in the chain has not changed, " Run Defense !" If the Packers up their game on run defense and or create a T/O or two then we win....
There is no better feeling in the world than watching the Packers beat the bears..... But that feeling will parallel tomorrow's jubilance when I wake up to the notification on my phone that says, "Joe Barry has been FIRED !"
Smash some mouths today Pack !

6 points
7
1
barutanseijin's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:46 am

Well, the Colts have a good run defense and a very good running game of their own but they still lost to the better quarterback.

The Packers have to minimize their mistakes. They had a lot of special team penalties in the first game. It also seemed as if their bad runs, drops and penalties came on early downs, giving them a lot of third-n-longs

They also had Bakhtiari playing a decent game for them. We’ll see how much Walker has improved. He’s been alright lately, even against decent pass rushes. Hopefully that continues.

2 points
2
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Stinky Cheese's picture

January 07, 2024 at 10:39 am

If we suck and beat you today, does that mean you suck more? You are not yesterday's Packers team. Nobody fears you :)

-7 points
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7
ChrisD's picture

January 07, 2024 at 11:34 am

Hahahahaha!!!!

-1 points
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1
NitschkeFromTheGrave's picture

January 07, 2024 at 11:59 am

@Stinky
Let's see....... how many division titles and Superbowls have your hapless Bears won in the past 10 years? 20 years? 30 years???? Please tell us the story of 1985 again Sparky.... (39 years)
Should we compare Sparky?...... Boom !

3 points
3
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Johnblood27's picture

January 07, 2024 at 12:03 pm

That, my friends, is called "whistling through the graveyard"

3 points
3
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Spock's picture

January 07, 2024 at 07:39 am

If the Packers bring their "A" game (especially on defense) they should win this game. With Dillion out I'm excited to see if Emanual Wilson and Taylor, along with A Jones "fresh legs" do for their running game. If even "most" of the possible WR's can play this could be a really fun game to watch Love. From what I've been reading, Montez Sweat is having one hell of a season; one article said he's currently the leader (6.5 sacks) for sacks with Washington and likely to be the leader for the Bears in the same category! If so, he would be the first player in NFL history to be the sack leader for two clubs in the same season. I just hope Jenkins can go. I've been up since 1a.m., just can't wait for this game to start! GPG!

4 points
4
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stockholder's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:03 am

Can the Packers punch their own ticket?
Houston did.
And they did it with a Rookie QB in CJ Stroud.
From 3 wins to a playoff spot.
No excuses today.
Win or clean house. All the way up.

-1 points
4
5
Cubbygold's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:10 am

"win or clean house"

No

4 points
6
2
SinceLombardi's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:01 am

I know MLF is getting a lot of credit for this young offense and that’s fine. He will be back no matter what happens today.. but a careful examination of his record as a HC shows something.. he’s a better OC. Next year is his make or break year and this game counts on that record.

4 points
4
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Cubbygold's picture

January 07, 2024 at 10:04 am

Too much noise for anyone to know anything at this point. What role did 12 play in the teams failures under MLF? What about having to change scheme to accommodate 12's guys? The internal confusion about when/whether to move on from 12 didn't help MLF either.

You can do a lot worse than MLF and Gute leading this team, and this is the first year they are really playing with 'their guys', although an objective observer would note that they're playing with one arm tied behind their back due to 12 and 69 contracts. And still, they've exceeded everyones expectations.

Fire them for losing to the bears? That's nonsense.

4 points
4
0
packer132's picture

January 07, 2024 at 10:23 am

Win or clean house? Have you been in a cave for the whole season? First year starter in Love with better stats than most of the seasoned NFL quarterbacks; that with a rookie wide receiver and tight end group that were injured most of the year. Add in the poor line play, and yet Green Bay has the playoffs in their grasp in a rebuilding year? shake my head.

4 points
5
1
stockholder's picture

January 07, 2024 at 11:28 am

Stop the excuses.
Love is elite.
Jones is back.
This OL is No longer Poor.
The Wrs - Next man up.
The TEs haven't been this good since the 60s

The DL finally replaced Daniels and Lowrey
A veteran secondary returned from WTF.
The 2 iLbs are the best since 2010
The edge guys are the best in the league.

Gutey is a god to most here.
Murphy isn't stupid.
MLF seat isn't hot.
Barry's position is No longer open.
We re-Loaded. What Rebuild?

It wasn't a dream.

-1 points
1
2
Johnblood27's picture

January 07, 2024 at 12:08 pm

Chewey and Jackson - not the 60's.
Veteran secondary? where? S is still a gaping black hole and Rasul is gonzo.
Murphy IS Stoopid.
Barry is a dead man walking.

Just shot holes in your flawed spewing. Yet again.

2 points
3
1
stockholder's picture

January 07, 2024 at 12:47 pm

Kramer and Marv Fleming-

1 points
2
1
LeotisHarris's picture

January 07, 2024 at 02:18 pm

Yup, as athletes, teammates, blockers, and pass-catching TEs (not to mention human beings) Kramer and Fleming beat Chmura and Jackson.

2 points
2
0
Johnblood27's picture

January 09, 2024 at 01:01 pm

Rich McGeorge

Paul Coffman

Maybe these guys didn't have sidekicks, but they didn't need them...

I am not a big proponent of having a platoon system at an offensive skill position. Who is in the game ia a "tell" for the defense and it limits the type of plays an offense will run with that specific player on the field. The plays the 'specialist' run better be damn good and capable of beating a defense that can predict what is coming. Those type of plays and players are few and far between. Much better, IMO, to work with a single player and hone his weakest skill to be acceptable while capitalizing on his strengths.

In the case of two TE, the 'fix' would be to have packages that utilize either one or two TE and do not provide the 'tell' to the defense. I would love to see some nice 2 TE packages in place for this week with TE as dual receiving threats.

-1 points
0
1
LambeauPlain's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:19 am

I did not realize the Bears lead the NFL in INTs. That is impressive and concerning. They stop the run and the pass with picks. They are strong where the Packers strengths lie....Their D vs Packers O.

More for MLF to consider in his game plan.

Bears are a very difficult opponent for the Packers as it turns out. Didn't see this coming back in September.

Their O vs the Packers D are the great unknowns...which team will show up? Both units have been inconsistent.

2 points
2
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stockholder's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:14 am

Their D 4-3-4

0 points
1
1
jannes bjornson's picture

January 07, 2024 at 10:27 am

Tyrique Stevenson is a guy I hoped the Pack would have looked for in the draft. Jackson and Brisker may be the best safety combo in the NFL.

1 points
1
0
mrtundra's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:21 am

The Packers brought back Luke Musgrave and Emmanuel Wilson from IR and elevated WR Grant DuBose from the PS. S Rudy Ford was placed on IR and GBP released CB David Long Jr.

4 points
4
0
HawkPacker's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:45 am

'The Bears may not be a good team, but they are a confident team'

I would change that to 'The Bears may not be a great team, but they are a good team'.

They have improved so much and this should really be a fun game to watch. To me it is sad that this is week 18 meaning we are close to being at the end of the season and have to wait so long to see them play meaningfull games next year (regular season).

To me, this game comes to down to two people: Jordan Love-will he continue to impress? The second name? Of course--Joe Barry, which of his defenses will show up? Normally I would say the defense would be like a sieve but now we are at the end of the season, and if you remember last year, he showed up towards the end of the season and was granted another 1 year contract!

3 points
4
1
Glen popes's picture

January 07, 2024 at 08:47 am

Very excited an apprehensive about this game. Beat the bears at lambeau an were in! Doesn’t get much better than that. Please Barry stay aggressive!!

5 points
5
0
Leatherhead's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:15 am

I live for stuff like this. I couldn't even sleep last night thinking about this game.

If we win, I'll be happy all week.
If we lose, I'll take my pickaxe and go to work in a corner of the yard until I feel better.

This is the final exam for 5 years of Gutekunst/LaFleur. We transitioned from Rodgers, we've rebuilt the roster, and if we don't win this game, it's going to be a terrible mark against the guys running the show.

7 points
9
2
LambeauPlain's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:36 am

I don't know if I would call it a "terrible mark" if, after attempting to replace a future HOFer and MVP, the Packers miss the playoffs by a game.

Very few picked the Packers to make the Playoffs this season.

With better coaches running the show on defense, we'd be discussing which Playoff seed the Packers own after today.

And the only mark I lay at Gutey's feet is the roster he has assembled. And it certainly is not "terrible".

Mark Murphy has been the self installed, Acting GM of the Packers for the last 7 years. The grading system starts with him.

9 points
10
1
pantz_bURp's picture

January 07, 2024 at 09:18 am

Bless me Father for I have sinned. It's been 6 months since my last confession. Since then I have:

Said the Lord's name in vein against da Bears
Wished them a short-term Escherichia coli outbreak
Prayed they keep Fields QB1
Their Bean sculpture just melts and disappears.
They cry uncontrollably after today's loss.

For these and all my sins, I am heartfully sorry.

*Oh, 5 Our Fathers...no problem, but 5 Hail Mary's? You serious?

Father, where did Coach Lombardi sit when he came here before games or am I thinking Rocky?

Pantz in waiting

-1 points
2
3
HawkPacker's picture

January 07, 2024 at 11:57 am

pantz, you are such a good catholic boy. However, don't forget about the 5 Glory be's!

1 points
1
0
NFLfan's picture

January 07, 2024 at 10:04 am

Defense has to show up.

Even if they do, Barry needs to go.

8 points
9
1
HawkPacker's picture

January 07, 2024 at 11:59 am

I see you got a thumbs down vote. I wonder if Barry is on this site?

2 points
2
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NFLfan's picture

January 07, 2024 at 03:47 pm

@HP-lol

0 points
0
0
Stinky Cheese's picture

January 07, 2024 at 10:46 am

Bear Down!! This matchup favors DA BEARS! Bodl Prediction--Fields runs for 150 yards
Love throws 2 INTs --Your kicker misses 2 FGs- 30 TV shots of crying Packers fans

-9 points
0
9
pantz_bURp's picture

January 07, 2024 at 11:22 am

No worries StinkC, I remember when I had my first beer too. ;)

7 points
7
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HawkPacker's picture

January 07, 2024 at 12:00 pm

Hey Stink, I can see why you are on our site since there is not much on the Bears website!

3 points
3
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cheesehead1's picture

January 07, 2024 at 01:10 pm

Rashan Gary has been quiet lately. Time to pick it up along with the rest of the D.

4 points
4
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NFLfan's picture

January 07, 2024 at 03:51 pm

They're going to have to go on 4th and 2-3. Anders is too unreliable.

1 points
1
0