Packers-Specific Seven-Round Mock Draft
The third in a three-part series makes a prediction for the Packers in each of the seven rounds of the NFL Draft.
The third in a three-part series of posts in the lead up to the 2018 NFL Draft. The first part, featuring a first-round prediction, was published Monday. The second was a position-by-position approach to the draft published on Tuesday.
Consider this a prediction of sorts.
First round, No. 14 overall—Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College—It would be ideal if either Minkah Fitzpatrick or Denzel Ward fall to the Packers in the first round, but I still think Landry is the best combination of the type of player the Packers seek along with the likelihood he’ll still be available. His bend around the edge is as good as it gets. And a positive to his development is that he won’t be under a mountain of pressure to produce immediately. At least in the beginning, he'll probably come off the bench on a rotational basis as long as Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are healthy. Admittedly, a big ask. But that three-man rotation off the edge could be one of the NFL’s best.
Second round, No. 45 overall—Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado—Size. Speed. Production. Bloodlines. Oliver checks off just about every box you could conceivably hope for in a defensive back. There might be more aggressive corners, like Carlton Davis, but Oliver is easily more athletic. He’s a perfect fit for defensive coordinator Mike Pettine as a press cornerback. About the only thing you’d worry about is whether Oliver can defend from he slot, but with his athleticism, you can’t rule it out either. It just might take some time. He adds punt return ability too. It might be a stretch for Oliver to last as long as 45, but if he does, the Packers could get an elite athlete.
Third round, No. 76 overall—M.J. Stewart, CB, North Carolina—Oliver can’t play the slot? Well, Stewart can. In fact, Stewart can play all over—inside, outside, press man, off man. A three-year starter for the Tar Heels, Stewart broke up a school-record 47 passes over his college career. And he impressed at the Senior Bowl—the nation’s top all-star game—being named the best defensive back by NFL scouts. Stewart may not have elite measurables, but by the third round, the Packers may have to make some sacrifices to get someone to cover from the slot.
Fourth round, No. 101 overall—Justin Watson, WR, Penn—It might seem like going out on a limb to select a wide receiver from the Ivy League with the first pick on Day 3 and expecting him to play a big role in the receiver group in Green Bay. But Watson is uniquely qualified and experienced, having set the school record for receptions (286), receiving yards (3,777) and touchdowns (33). Turn on the tape, and you’ll see a player that already has fantastic hands, kinetic and spatial awareness, plus-speed, and his route running is about as good as it gets for someone from the FCS. As one of the team’s Official 30 visits, the Packers have already shown interest. I bet you haven’t seen this tape on him. Watch it. It's a time investment of nine minutes, but in one drive you'll see why Watson is going to go earlier than most expect.
Fourth round, No. 133 overall—Mason Cole, OL, Michigan—In Green Bay, Cole would become the next in a long line of college left tackles likely shifting to the interior of the offensive line, but still with the ability to play tackle in a pinch. He already has experience on the interior, spending one season at center for the Wolverines. If Cole is up for the challenge, the Packers could look at him as a potential starter at the right guard spot. Having started 51 a school-record consecutive games at a place like Michigan helps in that regard. His experience and durability are highly desirable qualities.
Fifth round, No. 138 overall—Oren Burks, LB, Vanderbilt—As a linebacker whose best traits are his natural size (6-3, 233) and athleticism, Burks perhaps isn’t going to be the type that’s great at taking on offensive linemen and filling running lanes. But this isn’t the NFL of the 1980s anymore. It’s a bigger need for the Packers to have an inside linebacker that can play in space and cover tight ends. Burks can do that while not being a total liability against the run. Another Official 30 visit.
Fifth round, No. 172 overall—Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin—The Packers need a traditional in-line tight end that can block because Jimmy Graham and Lance Kendricks aren’t going to be that guy. You’d perhaps think that Fumagalli wouldn’t be a good blocker with his relatively short arms, but he more than got the job done at Wisconsin. And it’s not like you’re exactly looking for a left tackle here. Fumagalli also isn’t a slouch at getting down the field. I hope other teams are scared off by the fact that he only has nine fingers (Amniotic Band Syndrome), because his ability to catch the football wasn’t affected at all in college.
Fifth round, No. 174 overall—Brandon Parker, OL, North Carolina A&T—The Jason Spriggs experiment might not officially be over, but it is on life support. The Packers need depth at tackle, and even though Parker probably isn’t going to contribute Year 1, he is a talent worth developing. Parker was a big part of NC A&T winning the HBCU national championship in 2016, having opened holes for current Bears running back Tarik Cohen. He was the MEAC Offensive Lineman of the Year for three straight years.
Sixth round, No. 186 overall—Josh Kalu, SS, Nebraska—After losing Morgan Burnett to free agency, the Packers could use another safety that is capable of doing some of the things Burnett was capable of doing, namely covering from the slot. Sensing a theme? The Packers need help defending the slot badly. Kalu was a former cornerback before switching to safety as a senior, and he’s got hops. His vertical (41.5”) and broad jump (11’ 2”) are jaw dropping. With athleticism like that, the time spent into developing Kalu is worth it.
Sixth round, No. 207 overall—Mike McCray, LB, Michigan—McCray might not have the athleticism the Packers ideally seek at inside linebacker, but as long as they find one earlier in the draft—like Oren Burks—they can afford to add a good, two-down linebacker later on. We’re talking about the sixth round after all, not Day 1 or Day 2. McCray has his own set of positives as a captain at Michigan and 30.5 tackles for a loss in his college career, a remarkably high number for an inside ‘backer.
Seventh round, No. 232 overall—Marcell Frazier, EDGE, Missouri—Seeing as we have the Packers adding an edge defender whose game is predicated on speed early in the draft in Harold Landry, they could use one with a little more size later on. Frazier might be older than you prefer as a rookie (over 24 years old), but by the seventh round, that is less of a concern. It might be wishful thinking to assume Frazier lasts until the seventh round, but if he does, it makes sense. If Frazier can be even a marginal improvement over Kyler Fackrell, then the Packers are doing well adding depth at the position.
Seventh round, No. 239 overall—Keith Kirkwood, WR, Temple—Kirkwood has size and speed. He might not have the resume going up against top-notch, savvy cornerbacks, but at this point in the draft, Kirkwood’s athletic profile is worth taking a flier on. Yet another Official 30 visit.
NFL Categories:
Comments (29)
LambeauPlain
April 25, 2018 at 08:37 am
Landry is a reach at 14. He had a lousy 2017. A great 2016. He blames 2017 on a bad ankle. If it was so bad, why did his team’s medical staff let him play on it and not let it heal a few games? Is it healthy now? Will he need surgery at some point? Or was the ankle an excuse? And he is not very good against the run...almost daring teams to run right at him. He’s is actually a liability vs the run where both CMIII and Perry are excellent.
I hope Gute tries to trade up with McKenzie at #10. Both respect and trust each other. He may get it done with his #14, his 3rd rounder....may have to sweeten it with one of his late 5th comp picks.
Pack needs to win now and at 10 they should get a real difference maker that will play immediately and quickly improve the team.
OnWisconsinGoPack
April 25, 2018 at 06:22 pm
Not sure that's a fair assessment on Landry as he was hurt most of 2017. Listening to Ross Uglem and Justis Mosqueda talk about how Landry's tape in 2016 was better than Myles Garrett got me fired up about him.
If we are staying put at 14, it's Landry, Ward or James otherwise move back and target Mike Hughes or Isiah Oliver.
John Ramble Kirk
April 25, 2018 at 10:07 pm
Landry himself said he got injured in the Louisville game during the 3rd quarter....he played almost 7 full games last year uninjured. The hype is strong on this one. You don't take a player in the top half of Round 1 based off 2 years ago. I can't think of a situation that was done.
His combine was very good, but he just didn't come close to replicating what he did in COLLEGE. Now, he's supposed to make the jump and replicate it at the NFL level? Unlikely.
OnWisconsinGoPack
April 25, 2018 at 11:39 pm
Fair, but that's half the season he missed and still had 6 sacks. There are numerous examples of those who don't have production in college but play well in the NFL, but the point is Landry had tremendous production two years ago and was well on his way last year but was hurt. Also, he got hurt in the VaTech game but tried to play injured and was finally removed against Louisville.
The fact is, he has the athletic traits and production against big time competition that makes him a great pick at 14.
John Ramble Kirk
April 26, 2018 at 01:20 am
Yes...that is true Clay Matthews is a shining example.
There are many players who had they come out their Junior year would've been high picks, but stuck for their Senior years and ended up falling due to a drop in production. Ty Montgomery is one such player. A sure 1st rounder had he come out after Junior year. Went back for Senior year and with that new data on his record became a 3rd round pick. I'm stunned Landry seems impervious to this phenomenon. I suppose this is fueled by his combine performance? Draftniks, not necessarily teams, are promoting the heck out of him and it's always about his Junior year not last year. That seems crazy to me. Really crazy. It's eyebrow raising to watch how easily last year is dismissed and given no weight because of 2 years ago. Can you think of a player in Landry';s situation that showed out as a Junior fell off as a Senior and was picked up high in Round 1? I'm drawing a blank.
If we didn't desperately need a guy who could get to the QB I guarantee we wouldn't be hearing a single word about Landry at 14. This is 100% fueled by perceived need. That is not a good way to live in the NFL drafting out of desperation. Take his lack of production from his most recent year and our desperation and you have Harold Landry built into Lawrence Taylor when he's more likely Jamal Reynolds who was an even higher pick than Landry would be for us.
Sadly, I'm a Toronto Maple Leafs fan...after the disappointment of Game 7, I was hoping the draft could provide me a little pick me up, but it's been years since I've been excited about a Packers 1st round pick. If it's Landry, Vea or Jackson that will be just another year of disappointment and a stack on top of the Leafs debacle.
Bert
April 25, 2018 at 08:48 am
Kinda disappointing if we have to keep throwing so many draft picks at the defense again. I am concerned about the offense too. The Offense really needs a talent and youth infusion also.
kevgk
April 25, 2018 at 09:18 am
Agree. This offense really needs a consistent day 1 deep threat to punish safeties that stay too close to the line. It would open up so much space for Adams and Graham, and can he be a Packers WR for years to come.
Should be a round 2 priority IMO. Don't like any of the mocks that neglect WR until the later rounds.
Bert
April 25, 2018 at 09:29 am
Ditto. I see a very thin OL, WR, TE. Adams is one more concussion from being out for an extended time and we do need a dependable deep threat. Depending on Graham at TE is iffy. The OL is average, and again, very thin, especially if Bulaga is done. TT ignored the offense for too many years and it is catching up now. I just don't think we can afford to get through the draft without coming up with a couple quality players on offense.
NoNonsense
April 25, 2018 at 08:53 am
Just posted this on another draft board, not sure how close I am value wise but I looked at several big boards to try to find correct values.
14 Harold Landry Edge Boston College
45 Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado
76 Frank Ragnow OG Arkansas
101 Troy Fumagali TE Wisconsin
133 Shaquem Griffin LB UCF
138 Tre'Quan Smith WR UCF
172 Holten Hill CB Texas
174 Akrum Wadley RB Iowa
186 J'Mon Moore WR Missouri
207 Marquez Valdez Scantling WR USF
232 Austin Ramesh FB Wisconsin
239 Tanner Carew LS Oregon
Community Guy
April 25, 2018 at 09:43 am
how about this ??
14 Harold Landry Edge Boston College
43 (acquired in trade-up from #45) Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado
76 Joseph Noteboom OT TCU
101 Tre'Quan Smith WR UCF
133 J'Mon Moore WR Missouri
138 Troy Fumagali TE Wisconsin
172 Holten Hill CB Texas
174 Shaquem Griffin LB UCF
186 (traded to NE with pick #45 for pick #43)
207 Marquez Valdez Scantling WR USF
232 Austin Ramesh FB Wisconsin
239 Tanner Carew LS Oregon
NoNonsense
April 25, 2018 at 07:19 pm
Yeah Ragnow at 76 might be dreaming and we might have to move up for Oliver but I see a lot of mocks and big boards with Fumagali going at the end of 3 or beginning of 4.
Griffin could go anywhere from the 3rd to the 6th round so I went with the end of the 4th for him.
Me picking Landry over Davenport was a tough decision but Landry has a 16.5 sack season under his belt, double Davenport's best season. Picking the Ferrari over the Hummer here. Yes Landry might be a liability against the run if they run right at him but good luck running away from him.
EddieLeeIvory
April 25, 2018 at 06:01 pm
Ragnow will be LONG GONE by #76 but that would be a great pick.
Shaq Griffin is worth the 76 pick.
Fumagalli can be had lower.
I love Tre'Quan Smith too.
Landry is a stud. These fans ripping him here have never seen him play. Big Ten fans only.
OnWisconsinGoPack
April 25, 2018 at 06:24 pm
I've seen him play and I'd love to grab him at 14. It would be a tough choice to choose between him or James though, but I'd even be willing to trade a 2nd and next year's first to have them both.
Community Guy
April 25, 2018 at 09:58 am
btw Brian: i like your picks a lot!!
my biggest concern is the corner in round 2, as i think NE and Washington may both be interested in cb just ahead of the Packers.. i propose a trade up in round 2 to secure Oliver :)
OnWisconsinGoPack
April 25, 2018 at 06:25 pm
Agreed. Put those 4th and 5th rounders to good use
Royalty Free GM
April 25, 2018 at 10:29 am
GREEN BAY PACKERS will definitely draft WR RIDLEY with their first pick.
Edge is not our biggest need, because we kept overpaid Matthews. When you fire Matthews, then you draft edge.
Cornerback is a need, but CB draft is so deep this year that we can get very good corner(s) at round 2-3.
WR need is a BIG. Gute fired Jordy. WR Ridley goes 12th-16th in most mock drafts, so he will be perfect BPA for Packers. He will be a truly offensive weapon we haven’t had since great #84 Sharpe! Multiple probowls coming. Let’s once make our offense so strong that our opponents have to start drafting against it.
We will see soon, if Brian “TT” Gutekunst follows predecessor’s cowardly steps and keep selecting defense. Maybe he has guts to make this team Superbowl winner by drafting WR with the first pick...
Brian “TT” or “Guts” Gutekunst?
Packers will look so silly in coming years, if they let this rare opportunity to slip away. Otherwise Ridley will demolish Packers in future playoffs (Cardinals or Cowboys).
Make the wisest decision and draft Ridley!
It’s time stop being defensive all the time. It’s time to attack!!
GREEN & GOLD !
Bure9620
April 25, 2018 at 10:39 am
Really like Watson as well, athetic and a he is a route runner not raw, will be interesting to see where he gets drafted
LambeauPlain
April 25, 2018 at 12:03 pm
Brian...your colleague General Lynch does not see Landry fitting Pettine's D at OLB as a "Big Explosive".
He's the finese, knifer that the General says Pettine does not utilize in his Mongol Horde.
kevgk
April 25, 2018 at 01:39 pm
while that may be true, my impression of Pettine is the kind of guy to make anything work
Handsback
April 25, 2018 at 12:11 pm
Brian, good job on the picks, but of course just a couple of thoughts.
First, I wouldn't take Stewart with that third round pick. Cole is slotted for the third round (for what its worth) as well as Turay(Edge), Sheppard (DT), Host of WRs and TEs and Elliott (FS).
Parker is not making it to the fifth round, but could see a RB from NC State there Hines. He's 5-7 but a lightning bug in the open field.
The sixth round see possible guys...Parris (OT), Walker from La. Tech(FS), and Holton Hill (CB) from Texas, but your pick isn't bad.
All in all...a good draft.
Hagster
April 25, 2018 at 01:54 pm
While we have glaring needs for defensive help (EDGE & cornerback) and I believe we need to go defense at 14. We are a year away from I think having some real glaring holes on offense, specifically WR and TE (I’m a little more confident in our OL than most). I’m doubting Cobb comes back next season, making our only legitimate WR Adams which I believe could be a real disaster. I think we have to think long and hard about taking a WR with either our 2nd or 3rd pick. Also, who knows if we’re getting 3 productive years from Jimmy Graham. He’s also not your usual in-line TE. This is a good TE draft, I think taking a TE as high as the 3rd round isn’t out of the question.
Pack12
April 25, 2018 at 03:10 pm
Here is my draft using Russ Unglem's Big Board
14: R1P14
CB DENZEL WARD
OHIO STATE
45: R2P13
WR DJ MOORE
MARYLAND
76: R3P12
OT KOLTON MILLER
UCLA
101: R4P1
EDGE DORANCE ARMSTRONG, JR.
KANSAS
133: R4P33
S JESSIE BATES
WAKE FOREST
138: R5P1
EDGE JEFF HOLLAND
AUBURN
172: R5P35
WR J'MON MOORE
MIZZOU
174: R5P37
CB TONY BROWN
ALABAMA
186: R6P12
G WILL CLAPP
LSU
207: R6P33
LB MIKE MCCRAY
MICHIGAN
232: R7P14
RB ROC THOMAS
JACKSONVILLE STATE
239: R7P21
OT GERON CHRISTIAN
LOUISVILLE
Bert
April 25, 2018 at 04:55 pm
I hope Cedric Wilson gets some consideration as a Day 3 WR pick. He is pretty polished and is very underrated by most of the Mock drafters, media scouts etc. Somebody is going to be very happy with Wilson IMO.
stockholder
April 25, 2018 at 05:28 pm
Don't Like it, Don't like it. Don't like it. 1. Landry won't play 3 downs. He doesn't get off blocks or he'd be rated higher. ( comparison Thomas IlB) . 2. No Cb Here. last years group was the best. Unless the packers take Ward. Forget CB. 3. MJ Stewert, Just why another CB in a poor class. I'm Ok with the rest. Who replaces Jordy Nelson? Brian I just can't see reaching!
carlos
April 25, 2018 at 06:05 pm
Rumor has the Packers wanting to trade up.
dobber
April 25, 2018 at 07:01 pm
One report...
https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/04/packers-looking-to-move-up-in-...
frank the fork
April 25, 2018 at 09:44 pm
Yep, but I hope its all smoke...our Packers have some holes to fill.
I hope we trade back the 1st and pick an extra (playa) 3rd rd pick, then move up in the 4th twice using the later picks on offense.
1. edge olb
2. cb
3. ilb 3b. cb
4. te
4. wr
4. ol-ot
4. rb
5. ss
5.ol- g-c
6. wr
7. olb-lb
GO PACK GO
dobber
April 26, 2018 at 07:07 am
I can't help but wonder if it's BG getting the irons warm just in case someone they covet slides a little bit and they need to move quickly. Assessing where their potential trade partners are and what it might take.
JerseyAl
April 26, 2018 at 10:16 am
Brandon Parker is my sleeper OT in this draft, but it would a gift from heaven if he is still there in Rd5.