Packers Question of the day - Bleak Expectations?
The schedule ahead isn't easy for the Packers.
At 4-6, the season outlook seems to be set in stone and many are expecting the Packers to begin playing for a draft pick in 2017. However, with the remaining schedule for the Lions and Vikings not exactly in their favor match-up-wise, the Packers are still just two games out of the NFC North lead.
Is it time to just 'tank', or can the Packers actually make a run into January?
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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].
Comments (50)
zoellner25
November 23, 2016 at 09:12 am
we are "still just two games out" but with only 6 to play and tough schedule, I'd be surprised to finish 7-9. Tank is strong word, but they've been tanking since the bye week.
dschwalm
November 23, 2016 at 11:51 am
Yes, there should be no discussion about "tanking". Surely after seeing over 40 points hung on us the last two games, and after watching the body language on the sideline and between the lines, nobody will believe they haven't tanked!
jlc1
November 23, 2016 at 09:23 am
It is never time to tank and I don't think many teams actually do that are accused of it. What more likely happens in such cases is what seems to be happening with the Pack. There is no center, nothing to hold onto and failure seems little different from success.
This leads to a question about the franchise's philosophy of draft and develop. Might the problem be that McCarthy's coaching staff changes in recent years has damaged the development part of that formula? Do his current coaches develop whatever talent they get as effectively as others did in the early years of the McCarthy era?
Tundraboy
November 23, 2016 at 09:47 am
Impossible to answer without Crystal Ball. If they win division and get some players back the answer of course would be No. If it's 9-7, 8-8, no playoffs but leaves a rationale that injuries were at fault, and therefore no big Coaching, GM Changes, Yes tank. Please
NickPerry
November 23, 2016 at 11:22 am
I'm with TB, impossible to answer. Depending what happens this weekend the Packers are 3-4 in the conference with losses to Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington, and Dallas, all playoff teams with the exception of Minnesota...maybe. That doesn't bode well for the Tie Breakers in the event of a tie with say Washington or Atlanta for a Wildcard spot.
This team has shown absolutely nothing the last 20 games, at least nothing which would suggest they could compete for a Championship. I can't honestly say this team is even a Top 20 team at this point, not after losing to Indy and Tennessee. I hate the word "Tank" and doubt they need to do that to secure a Top 10 pick. I think that's already in the cards. Is it enough to get Murphy to make a change? According to Murphy he's not ready to start firing...See link below...
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000744869/article/mark-murphy-disap...
Perhaps a few more losses will change his mind, he's only known "Happy Times" in Green Bay. What he NEEDS to look at is his GM and HC have managed one SB appearance with one HOF QB, maybe two. Sorry, 12-4 and one and done don't do a damn thing for me.
Tundraboy
November 23, 2016 at 07:34 pm
Wow Cow. Never would I have imagined, especially now when we are stinking up the joint, that you of all people would even entertain the thought that we could win 5 more games. And begin by beating the Eagles at night on National TV no less. I'm left in awe.
NickPerry
November 24, 2016 at 05:46 am
I understand that Cow and appreciate your undying sense of confidence. The Packers won't win 5 more games simply because they don't have the horses. The injuries ARE a reason but even if ALL those injured players were back, they've showed long before the 4 game losing streak they weren't all that good.
I mean you've told us that for as many years as I can remember. BTW...Conference will matter at the end of this. I see 2-4, maybe 3-3 at best. I've had my Green & Gold glasses on long enough this year. The Packers have ZERO Confidence, zip, nada, squat. There's a stink coming from this team that can be smelled in California, you of all people should smell it.
Ferrari Driver
November 23, 2016 at 09:55 am
How can any of us have anything other than "Bleak Expectations" after the way the defense has played?
Granted, the Packers have been hit hard with injuries, but that roster is filled with average and below average players.
I realize the NFL designed the annual draft to equalize the teams by allowing weaker teams to have the first shot at the "DIFFERENCE MAKERS" and the Packers have been missing out on those types of players for the last decade because of their winning records.
Bottom Line: it may just be our turn in the bottom of the barrel and it's time to restock.
Since'61
November 23, 2016 at 08:50 pm
It's not time to tank yet but the reality is that the season looks pretty bleak at this point. It would be one thing if we were losing competitively but our defense hasn't stopped anybody except the Bears since the bye week. In the 5 losses since the bye week the defense has allowed an average of 36 points per game. If we can hold our opponents to under 30 points we might have a chance but allowing 45 points to teams like the Titans (who were stopped by the Colts last week) and the Redskins does not bode well. Unless our defense can get off the field without allowing a TD on almost every possession and unless MM allows Monty and Cook to be involved with the offense as he did against the Skins, I don't see how we're going on a run, but you never know. That's why they play the games. Thanks, Since '61
Point-Packer
November 23, 2016 at 11:19 am
According to 538, we have a 6% chance of making the playoffs and are projected to win 6.5 games. So yeah, I've lost hope.
zoellner25
November 23, 2016 at 11:10 am
Saw that as well. As a projected top 5 SB pick before the season, to have a 6% chance to make playoffs after 10 games is in one word, pathetic.
Point-Packer
November 23, 2016 at 11:19 am
Should have short sold.
PortlandMark
November 23, 2016 at 11:49 am
After the election and World Series, I don't ever want to hear Nate Silver's name again LOL.
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 02:59 pm
Actually, he was one of the only aggregators saying Trump had a shot, so...
Point-Packer
November 24, 2016 at 03:07 am
Uh, he was one of the few poll aggregators that gave Trump a legitimate chance. So in other words, your comment is not based in reality or facts.
Love that Cow is now trying to be the ray of hope. In reality, if the Pack lose on Monday,
they are statistically very close to being eliminated from playoff contention. If they aren't already.
Since'61
November 23, 2016 at 07:12 pm
Cow - Google NFL538. You will find that it is a website which provides predictions for the NFL games each week and for playoff chances.
Thanks, Since '61
Finwiz
November 23, 2016 at 02:27 pm
I've watched some great Packer teams, and some awful Packer teams since 1963. I've always watched, even through the 70's and 80's. The season is over people - trust me. The defense couldn't stop anybody short of Cleveland or maybe Chicago. I see them winning 2 more games at most, or maybe if they get really, really lucky, 3. Somebody should get fired, preferably TT because he put together this god awful backup talent, but Capers should be on the chopping block as well.
SpudRapids
November 23, 2016 at 03:50 pm
Who has great backup talent in the NFL? that is a luxury no one has
Since'61
November 23, 2016 at 08:08 pm
Spud - I agree that no team has the luxury of great backup talent. However, before the injuries Rollins and Gunther were our # 3 and 4 CBs or the first backups to Shields and Randall. They have not played to the level of the starters immediate backups. We have been left thin at ILB and empty at RB. I'm not calling for anyone to be fired, at least not yet, but other teams are playing with injuries and I'm not sure that the falloff from their starting players has been as drastic as the Packers. Then we see our first backup at Guard (Barclay) get injured and Spriggs comes in, plays solid and improves the position. That leaves me to question what are the coaches watching during the weekly preparations? Whatever happens beginning this week in Philly I just hope that we put our best available players on the field at every position. I hope that we keep Monty and Cook involved in the offense. Actually we should give Monty more snaps. Keep Spriggs at guard as well. Every game is basically a playoff game for the Packers now. So, if we must lose let's lose knowing that we have lost with our best on the field. Thanks, Since '61
NickPerry
November 24, 2016 at 05:56 am
Well said Since '61. Besides, Randall was terrible each time he took the field this year. He was ranked in the 100's as far as CB ratings. Cook against the Philly Defense will be an interesting match-up since Philly's Defense is one of the best at defending the TE position. Like ANYTHING in McCarthy's Offense, he rarely will show it again after it was successful.
FAN24583
November 23, 2016 at 07:50 pm
Yes agreed. No playoffs this January but. January will bring a new President of the US and hopefully a new GM in Titletown!!!! Bittersweet.
Handsback
November 23, 2016 at 11:18 am
I think the Packers will win 2 more games maybe 4 if they can get some of their dbs back.
dschwalm
November 23, 2016 at 11:55 am
I'll take some of that action!!!
TommyG
November 23, 2016 at 11:54 am
I don't think that it is time to tank the season. I think that the season will tank without any direct intent. Too many injuries and not enough skill left in what are the starters. Just too much to overcome this year.
dschwalm
November 23, 2016 at 11:56 am
Well stated.
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 12:21 pm
Exactly.
Tundraboy
November 23, 2016 at 07:43 pm
Stop it Cow. Your newfound optimism is starting to worry me.
PortlandMark
November 23, 2016 at 11:57 am
Check out the Packers salary cap at http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/
3 of the top 4 players are on defense, Mathews, Shields, and Peppers. Together they take up 35% of the cap, leaving 65% for the other 49 players. When a drafted player is just starting to develop, he gets let go (Heyward for example) and the Packers are left with no depth and little talent. Brady gets paid way less than Rodgers giving the Patriots more room to sign talent and win games. Changes need to be made at the top of roster. This is a team game. As long as they have a salary cap situation like this they will be led by a HOF QB to 5-11 record. I'd rather treat this like the preseason and see if Hundley is any good at QB. If he is turns out be a budding star (like Rodgers was) then as Rodgers to renegotiate his contract or trade him. I'd rather cheer for a winning team than one super star.
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 12:23 pm
I wouldn't look to Brady for a comparison. He is 7 years older. Also, while the year-to-year comparison looks favorable, the dead cap money on the last two years of Brady's deal, when he will be over 40, are $14M and $7M, respectively. The last two years of Rodgers' deal there is no dead cap money at all. So despite #12 being much younger, the Packers are actually much better prepared to move on from Rodgers in two years than the Patriots are to move on from Brady in two years. And that is nuts. A better comparison is Joe Flacco. Take a look at that deal. Rodgers' deal is just fine.
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 12:35 pm
It is striking how many of the Packers' top-10 cap guys are under producing or are unavailable due to injury. If you look across the top-7, the only guy who is consistently available and consistently effective is Mike Daniels. And that is not a winning formula.
Rodgers - Not playing well this year.
Matthews - Hamstring has limited availability and effectiveness during losing streak
Shields - Lost for season, probably for career
Peppers - Has aged out and is ineffective
Cobb - Not living up to contract without a true #1 opposite him
Nelson - Has lost a step, probably too old to ever be true deep threat
Daniels - Worth every penny
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 12:44 pm
http://overthecap.com/super-bowl-titles-high-salary-quarterbacks/
For Portland Mark's enjoyment, here is a 2015 article about QB as a % of salary cap for Super Bowl winning teams. Some of you will remember that 2010 was technically an uncapped year. FWIW, Rodgers' cap number that year would have been $6.5M/$135M spent by the Packers. Bottom line - if your QB is making more than 10% of your salary cap you are probably not going to win the Super Bowl.
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 04:56 pm
Well, he's required to spend a minimum of 89% per year averaged over 4 years, and TT spent about 95% for 2016, so yeah, I'm gonna go out on that limb and say that he would have found a productive way to use it. But just for the record my comment was a general one, and was not specifically directed at the Packers at all.
croatpackfan
November 23, 2016 at 01:11 pm
I do not like question and it is not fair behavior to lose on purpose... It always comes back and hit you when you do not expect!
Be sportsman, fight, collect experience, collect playing time, be better. You might win the division somehow. Do not be cry baby. When it is not going like you would like, all you know is crying and "tanking"... No, thank you!
RCPackerFan
November 23, 2016 at 01:17 pm
Per McCarthy:
Lacy and Shields seasons are over. Activating Makington Dorleant from IR.
Colin_C
November 23, 2016 at 01:39 pm
Help is not on the way
MarkinMadison
November 23, 2016 at 04:57 pm
So basically, you're just a contrarian. When everyone else is high you are looking at every flaw with a microscope. When everyone else is low, you pull rainbows out of your behind.
Tundraboy
November 23, 2016 at 07:49 pm
MM. That thought has crossed my mind as well.
Point-Packer
November 24, 2016 at 03:09 am
Cow should just be ignored. He's a stinky turd.
Finwiz
November 23, 2016 at 02:34 pm
No surprise on Lacy or Shields. I don't expect to see Shields again, and I'd say it's less than 50/50 on Lacy. He may test the market and somebody will give him a bigger deal than the Packers. I don't think the Pack will pony up on a long term deal given his conditioning issues and injuries. Tough deal. Now we got no running back, and no shutdown corner.
RCPackerFan
November 23, 2016 at 05:19 pm
Especially with what McCarthy said about Shields needing to get healthy for his family first. IMO he is done. Or at the very least he will be done in Green Bay. Probably similar to Nick Collins.
Lacy I wasn't sure if he'd return or not. I heard that he would be back end of December/January.
I honestly don't see anyone giving Lacy a lot of money. I am guessing he will be back on a 1-2 year deal.
Colin_C
November 23, 2016 at 01:42 pm
For me, this game is it. Lose, and I'm hoping for a better draft pick. Win, and the dream is still alive (barely).
RCPackerFan
November 23, 2016 at 01:45 pm
Basically where I'm standing too...
Thegreatreynoldo
November 23, 2016 at 06:33 pm
Yup. If we lose and Detroit and/or MN win, time to play the young guys - all of them.
Since'61
November 23, 2016 at 07:30 pm
TGR - Since Detroit or Min are playing each other this week it's likely one of them will win. In any case this is a must win game for us and is the only game that we have control over. let's hope the defense finally shows up. Thanks, Since '61
Thegreatreynoldo
November 24, 2016 at 12:29 am
LOL. Touche. Yeah, high probability that one of them wins (barring a tie, I suppose), and I'd have to admit pretty much no chance of both Detroit and MN winning! I stand corrected.
Notwithstanding the above, if we lose to Philly, play the young guys: Spriggs, Fackrell, Davis, Clark, Gunter, Lowry, Murphy, and Hundley most of all.
Since'61
November 24, 2016 at 07:12 am
Agree completely on the young guys. Thanks, Since '61
lambeauleap
November 23, 2016 at 03:35 pm
This season is over. I just don't see any sort of optimism that this team can do enough positive things consistently to win even 3 more ball games to finish 7-9 let alone make a run come January.
With that said I don't like the idea of tanking in the true sense of the word. They are still very well paid professionals representing this organization. In my mind they should still do what they can do to have some dignity and not completely embarrass themselves or the brand they are paid to represent. I think even if they put forth all their effort, we'll still be bad enough to manage to score a good draft pick (probably top 12). I just have to hope someone other then TT is making the selections.
Tundraboy
November 23, 2016 at 07:52 pm
Amen.
packerbackerjim
November 23, 2016 at 05:13 pm
For the remainder of the season I would like to see:
The Offense play cohesively with the pass happy approach of the Air Coryell days.
The Defense develop a pass rush not predicated on Caper's improbable game plan.
I especially would like to see the opposing teams feel uncomfortable facing the Pack . Embrace the spoiler role.
Dzehren
November 23, 2016 at 11:13 pm
Shields & Lacy careers in GB all but over. And of course we bring another undrafted free agent off the IR to add to the 5 other undrafted secondary rookies. Makinton Dorleant 24 years old. Zero experience. Just what we need. This is a joke and sad state of affairs. 5 UDFA's 24 year olds- zero experience. Come on TT. No leadership.