Packers Defense the Key to a Super Bowl Return
By contributor
The last time the Green Bay Packers concluded the season in the top ten in total defense in both yards and points was 2010, when the team took home the Lombardi trophy. Of the last four times the Packers finished the regular season in the top ten in defensive yards and points, three of those resulted with the team playing in the Super Bowl.
While a top defense isn’t the only blueprint for success, there is no question it has played a major role in ending the Packers season early. From Fitzgerald’s big play to the Seattle collapse, brutally cold Niner loss, Kap smooching his biceps, and the Giants beat down during the 15-1 season; this team has taken heartbreaking losses in the playoffs to another level. On each occasion, the Packers were beaten by a team with a better defense.
With last year being the exception, the Packers offense has been the epitome of elite the past 10 seasons. Averaging a top ten ranking in yards and points for McCarthy’s tenure, the high octane offense has carried the Packers into the postseason each of the past seven seasons.
It has been assumed by many fans that if the defense was average, the Packers would be really good. While this holds true for the regular season, it appears that the Packers defense is stopping the team from another championship. While the offense can certainly share in the blame, it is proven that offenses will struggle at times in the playoffs. Super Bowl champions typically rely on their defense to win playoff games, and ultimately the big one.
What are the chances that Mike McCarthy’s 2016 Packers will be a top ten defense?
The last such defense, the 2010 version on Dom Capers’ 3-4 was ranked 2nd in points and 5th in total yards given up. The team was a delicate balance between young playmakers like Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams and B.J. Raji and savvy veterans such as Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett. They had veteran contributors that played major roles such as Derrick Martin and Howard Green, and superstars like Nick Collins and Charles Woodson. Top to bottom, this was an elite defense that is going to be hard to replicate.
The 2016 defensive squad features plenty of unknowns. It can be expected that Clay Matthews, Sam Shields, Mike Daniels, Letroy Guion, Julius Peppers and Morgan Burnett will be consistent cogs to any defensive success this coming season. While Daniels may take another step in improvement, it expected that the other five players will stay status quo or even decline in performance.
The key to major improvement and becoming an elite defense will evolve from the development of the younger playmakers. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix must progress into an elite player along with his secondary teammates Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall taking another progression step. The team will also need to see significant improvement from the inside linebackers, and must be hopeful that Blake Martinez can provide that bump. Martinez can offer the coverage skills on third down that has plagued the Packers from that position the past few years, but he needs to be able to fill against the run better than he has shown so far.
In addition, the defensive line will need rookie contributors in the form of Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry. The Packers will hope these men can hold their own when they are on the field.
While there are a lot of uncertainties, a new season with many young players offers hope for the 2016 campaign. Maybe the Packers will find themselves in the top ten defense again, maybe they will be super.
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Comments (16)
Since'61
September 10, 2016 at 03:40 pm
I have posted many times here over the years that a good/great offense can get you to the playoffs but it is the defense that determines how far you get in the playoffs. Why? Because in the playoffs you usually face a good/great defense in every game and you often face an elite QB as well. Therefore if your defense is not as good or as least close to as good as your opponents defense you will get knocked out of the playoffs . The Packers have epitomized this since the 2010 SB season. 2011 the NYG defense shut down the Pack offense and our defense could not stop Eli Manning and the Giants O. 2012 our D could not stop Crapernick. 2013 our D played hard but they had too many injuries and lost to SF again. 2014 inexperience and sloppy play led to a complete defensive collapse with a 12 point lead and less than 4 minutes to play in Seattle against a championship team that never believed it was out of the game. Finally, 2015 dropped picks and inexperience in OT resulted in yet another playoff disappointment. This is the weak link in a D&D philosophy. While I support the D&D approach because you keep the team young and stay out of salary cap hell you must accept the fact that in the playoffs your young players will make mistakes and your opponents' more experienced players, often FAs they signed, will exploit the mistakes. We all know the difference that Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins and Charles Woodson made in the Packers SB defense. Playoff games are usually close games and often decided by one or two plays. Too often a blown coverage or a dropped pick or missed tackle have cost the Packers the season. As good as our offense can be they cannot be expected to score 30+ points in every playoff game against the better defenses in the league. The defense must make stops at key times in the game. Let's stay healthy and maybe it all comes together this season. For now I'll take a win in Jacksonville. Thanks, Since '61
lou
September 10, 2016 at 04:01 pm
Excellent post, a good summery of coming close several times. Many forget the impact Bishop had on that defense, he solidified the middle, along with Raji and Green, and who would have expected the team to close out the game with Jarrett Bush and Pat Lee finishing the game in the secondary. They key is for Clark to perform beyond expectations like Randall and Rollins did last year, and both inside backers holding their own from day one along with the always required to win it all, a season with few defensive injuries.
jeremyjjbrown
September 10, 2016 at 09:03 pm
This. If the Packers don't have a top ten defense the chances of a Superbowl are low. TT knows it which is why he's spent do many high draft picks on defense.
Bearmeat
September 10, 2016 at 03:56 pm
It all depends on how good the offense is. If the offense is 500 plus points per year great, then the defense will be just fine competing for a super bowl title as long as it is top half.
If the offense is between 400-500 points scored, then the D will have to be top 10 for them to be good enough to win it all.
My money is more on the former than the latter. We've got a great secondary, but the interior of the front 7 is, quite frankly, below average on paper. Let's hope the young guys step up.
barutanseijin
September 10, 2016 at 04:14 pm
I think the key to the season will be Rodgers. If he plays like he did last year, the defense has to be super. If he recovers his pre-2015 form, there will be a little less pressure on the defense.
dobber
September 10, 2016 at 04:58 pm
^^THIS^^
We can talk about defense, but it's a QB-driven league. It all starts there.
HankScorpio
September 10, 2016 at 04:29 pm
Capers has the kind of personnel that he can throw lots of different looks at the offense, especially with pass defense. With a very thin DL, the Packers might be vulnerable to a very good power run offense. But how many teams can do that anymore?
dobber
September 10, 2016 at 04:53 pm
They'll see one next week...
HankScorpio
September 11, 2016 at 05:17 pm
That's what the Vikes offensive identity will try to be, for sure. I'm not sure they have the o-line to turn desire into reality.
Still, a couple of big play scores early takes that out of the equation.
PaulRosik
September 10, 2016 at 08:20 pm
The margin of winning and losing playoff games is miniscule. In the 2010 run the Packers were one play away from losing each playoff game. And no team has had more close playoff losses than the Packers. Packer fans know better than most that you need to make that one play at the right time to win a close game against a top team.
So playmakers need to step up at the right times like the article said. The young players inside on the d line and linebacker corps are probably the most important players on this team. They need to make the difference between a playoff team and a championship team.
Ibleedgreenmore
September 10, 2016 at 08:29 pm
Well it seems Bak is hurt, will he play or will they have the revolving door tomorrow. My oh my this could be way to much fun.
NickPerry
September 10, 2016 at 09:31 pm
This is why you don't cut a Pro Bowl Guard a week before the season starts, otherwise you just might end up with a left side of Spriggs and Taylor. Defense isn't the key, not in week one. The key will be getting Rodgers out of Jacksonville alive if those 2 start.
stockholder
September 11, 2016 at 10:30 am
Your Right! I think TT knows he made a mistake with Sitton. Especially if he wanted a pick for him. With Bakhtiari hurt. Spriggs in. Could we see a trade for Bakhtiari later this year before he becomes a FA.? I believe Bakhtari will not get the money from TT at the end of this season. Not with Spriggs being drafted. So Baptism by Fire. So trade him soon? Or wait for a comp pick? This will be answered if Spriggs plays LT the next few games. TT has made a point that he doesn't care what people believe. He is the builder like it, or lump it.
stockholder
September 10, 2016 at 10:21 pm
Defensive Free Agents at the end of 2017 season. 1. Peppers 2. Perry 3. D.Jones 4. Hyde RFA 1. Banjo 2. Elliott 3. Pennel ERFAs 1. Thomas 2. Ringo Offensive FA 1. Cook 29yrs. 2. Tj Lang 28 yrs 3. Lacy 25yrs. 4. Tretter 25yrs. 5. Bakhatari 24 yrs. 6. Barclay 27yrs. 7. Goode RFAs 1. Perrillo 2. Schum 3. Steuck ERFA 1. Crockett There were some 18 FAs last year. And might be just as many at the end of this year. The defensive unit is the strongest in years. Perry ,Jones , Hyde peppers, are the ones who must step up in order to WIN. Every sack gets them $$$$. I'm pulling for these guys to get a sweet deal.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 11, 2016 at 02:26 am
I more or less agree. First, it matter more WHEN you are good. One example is the 2011 Giants, who got several good players back in time for the playoffs: their regular season defensive ranking was bad, and that ranking was not reflective of the defense they fielded in the playoffs.
[Excluding 2015] The SB winners' combined average defensive ranking (Pts.) was 5.63; the SB winner's average offensive ranking was 6.10. The average combined ranking of SB winners is 5.87.
There is some bias in having a good defense over having a good offense. 47% of SB winners had either the #1 or #2 defense: 34.7% of SB winners had either the #1 or #2 offense. [For 2015, Denver's Defense ranked 4th in points allowed, and 19th in points scored; Denver's defense was 1st in yds allowed and 1st in points per drive, but opponents just had a lot of drives/opportunities due to dismal offensive play.]
YEAR TEAM DEF OFF Combined
2014 Patriots 8 4 6 Tom Brady
2013 Seattle 1 9 5 Russell Wilson
2012 Ravens 12 10 11 Joe Flacco
2011 Giants 25 9 17 Eli Manning
2010 Packers 2 10 6 Aaron Rodgers
2009 Saints 20 1 10.5 Drew Brees
2008 Steelers 1 20 10.5 Ben Rothlisberger
2007 Giants 17 14 15.5 Eli Manning
2006 Colts 23 2 12.5 Peyton Manning
2005 Steelers 4 9 6.5 Ben Rothlisberger
2004 Patriots 2 4 3 Tom Brady
2003 Patriots 1 12 6.5 Tom Brady
2002 Tampa 1 18 9.5 Brad Johnson
2001 Patriots 6 6 6 Tom Brady
2000 Ravens 1 14 7.5 Banks/Dilfer
1999 Rams 4 1 2.5 Kurt Warner
1998 Broncos 9 2 5.5 John Elway
1997 Broncos 7 1 4 John Elway
1996 Packers 1 1 1 Brett Favre
1995 Dallas 3 3 3 Troy Aikman
1994 49ers 6 1 3.5 Steve Young
1993 Dallas 2 2 2 Troy Aikman
1992 Dallas 5 2 3.5 Troy Aikman
1991 Wash. 2 1 1.5 Mark Rypien
1990 Giants 1 15 8 Phil Simms
1989 49ers 3 1 2 Joe Montana
1988 49ers 8 7 7.5 Joe Montana
1987 Wash. 6 4 5 Jay Schroeder
1986 Giants 2 8 5 Phil Simms
1985 Bears 1 2 1.5 Jim McMahon
1984 49ers 1 2 1.5 Joe Montana
1983 Raiders 13 3 8 Jim Plunkett
1982 Wash. 1 12 6.5 Joe Theismann
1981 49ers 2 7 4.5 Joe Montana
1980 Raiders 10 7 8.5 Jim Plunkett
1979 Steelers 7 1 4 Terry Bradshaw
1978 Steelers 1 5 3 Terry Bradshaw
1977 Dallas 8 2 5 Roger Staubach
1976 Raiders 12 4 8 Ken Stabler
1975 Steelers 2 5 3.5 Terry Bradshaw
1974 Steelers 2 6 4 Gilliam/ Bradshaw
1973 Miami 1 5 3 Bob Griese
1972 Miami 1 1 1 Morrall/Griese
1971 Dallas 7 1 4 Staubach/Morton
1970 Colts 7 6 6.5 Johnny Unitas
1969 Chiefs 2 4 3 Dawson/Livingston
1968 NY Jets 10 16 13 Joe Namath
1967 Packers 4 13 8.5 Bart Starr
1966 Packers 1 6 3.5 Bart Starr
DEFENSE------------------------------------OFFENSE
Rk>>>SB Wins>> % of Time>>Rk>>SB Wins % of time
1st>>>14>>>>>>>>>28.57%>>>>>>1 10 20.41%
2nd>>>9>>>>>>>>>18.37%>>>>>>>2 7 14.29%
3rd>>>2>>>>>>>>>>4.08%>>>>>>>3 2 4.08%
4th>>>3>>>>>>>>>>6.12%>>>>>>>4 5 10.20%
5th>>>1>>>>>>>>>>2.04% >>>>>>>5 3 6.12%
6th>>>3>>>>>>>>>>6.12%>>>>>>>6 4 8.16%
7th>>>4>>>>>>>>>>8.16%>>>>>>>7 3 6.12%
8th>>>3>>>>>>>>>>6.12%>>>>>>>8 1 2.04%
9th>>>1>>>>>>>>>>2.04%>>>>>>>9 3 6.12%
10th>> 2>>>>>>>>>>4.08%>>>>>>>10 2 4.08%
11th+>>7>>>>>>>>14.29%>>>>>>>11+ 9 18.37%
So, if GB can be 3rd in points scored, they would need to be 8th or 9th or so on defense to meet the combined average of SB winning teams. Perhaps doable if things fall into place.
al bundy
September 11, 2016 at 09:18 am
I've always believed the team that wins the super bowl must have a stellar defense, above avg special teams, a decent passing/running game., good kicking.
Any of the above missing a team may come close but no cigar but yes, its the D that has to be there. It sometimes can make up for weaknesses in one of the above.
Today I'm looking to see if the packer d can get off the field against a so so Jax team. That will tell me about this team not the offense.