Packers' Aggressive Strategy Will Require Changes
By ChrisWanless
With the start of the new league year a week away, the NFL free agency rumor mill is in full-effect. New Packers general manager Brian Gutkekunst has vowed to be more aggressive than his predecessor when it comes to free agency, with head coach Mike McCarthy echoing that sentiment last week at the NFL Combine. The question is—how aggressive can they be while staying within the limits of the salary cap?
On Monday, teams were notified that the salary cap for 2018 would be set at $177.2 million. According to the NFLPA’s salary cap report, that leaves the Packers with just over $15.4 million in cap space heading into free agency and the draft. Green Bay currently possesses 12 draft picks for 2018, which, according to Spotrac, will account for a little under $8.8 million in rookie cap money. As it stands, that would mean the Packers have about $6.6 million to work with in free agency.
Obviously, that number is not ideal for Green Bay’s “aggressive” plans. If the Packers plan to acquire talent from outside the organization this offseason, they are going to have to shuffle some things around within the organization first.
There are multiple ways to create cap space in the NFL, with cutting players being the most straightforward. There are currently four players on the roster who would provide the Packers with significant cap savings if cut:
- Randall Cobb ($9.5 million savings)
- Clay Matthews ($11.3 million)
- Jordy Nelson ($10.2 million)
- Bryan Bulaga ($4.7 million)
Cobb, Matthews and Nelson are all entering the final year of their current contracts, while Bulaga has two years left on his deal. Bulaga, who was placed on injured reserve in November after tearing his ACL, seems the most obvious candidate to be cut. Cobb and Nelson have been the subject of much speculation so far this offseason, and many don’t believe the Packers are likely to keep both of them for 2018. Matthews, though his statistics have declined, has proven he can still have an impact on the field, thus making it doubtful Green Bay moves on.
During his availability at the combine, Gutekunst stated the Packers’ interest in keeping all of their key players on the roster. Theoretically, that could be accomplished by asking Cobb, Nelson and Matthews to restructure their contracts or take pay cuts. Nelson has expressed at least a slight openness to the idea of a restructure, and the Packers will likely ask him to do so, given his declining production and large cap number for 2018. Matthews, one would think, might be interested in an extension as well, as his number in free agency probably wouldn’t be spectacular.
The wild card, I think, is Randall Cobb. He’ll turn 28 in August and probably considers himself to still be in the prime of his career. Sure, he has benefitted from the services of Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, but surely Cobb doesn’t think his own abilities should be provided at a discount. Speaking of Rodgers, his impending mega-deal will almost certainly provide the Packers with some cap relief as well—at least if the team has their way.
All things considered, the most likely scenarios seem to leave the Packers without at least one of their veterans as they enter 2018. The brass at 1265 Lombardi seems committed to finding talent from outside Green Bay, and the money has to come from somewhere. If the team can convince one or two of their top earners to strike new deals, perhaps the others could be retained at his current number. If not, something will have to give.
Comments (59)
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 12:07 pm
Very good summary.
TKWorldWide
March 07, 2018 at 04:21 pm
But happening in springery.
Or as wintery turns to springery.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 12:29 pm
It shows that if we want to sign a ONE top FA, we need to cut ONE of our veterans. Is this aggressive strategy? I think it’s not.
If we want to sign TWO top FAs, we need to cut TWO of our veterans (or restructure all of them(unlikely?)). This belongs more likely in the aggressive strategy category.
And then add WR Ridley and heads will explode in this forum ;) And next year you will write praises about Gute. We are going to ATTACK aggressively & WIN!
OnWisconsinGoPack
March 07, 2018 at 02:45 pm
What's with the fascination of drafting Ridley im the 1st round? He's not worth it at all. Probably not even on the 2nd round either.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 03:58 pm
I’m just determined and consistent :)
He is the best value we can get and with ARod he will be All-Pro. The missing link.
OrganLeroy
March 07, 2018 at 05:26 pm
Ridley is so over rated and not a top 15 pick talent wise, my God, fans are so damn blind it's not even funny!
Gianich
March 08, 2018 at 10:20 am
"fans are so damn blind it's not even funny!" Says fan, OrganLeroy...
HankScorpio
March 07, 2018 at 08:50 pm
They don't *need* to cut anyone to get more cap room. You don't even *need* to get any of them to agree to a pay cut. Extending contracts can lower cap hits significantly.
The question becomes whether they *want* to make another commitment to any or all of the big 3 in the final years of their deal. TT was not big on signing guys to 3rd contracts. We'll see about Gute.
Packer_Fan
March 07, 2018 at 12:51 pm
I get the feeling that the Pack HAS to be more aggressive in free agency. Last year showed there isn't enough talent, and/or insufficient coaching (poor communication & misuse of talent(Hayward/Hyde improving outside of GB) and an approach that is wasting an all-universe QB.
If I were Rodgers, my first comment to start negotiating a new contract is: when are we getting more talent on the defense side of the ball. Like why should he take a new contract if the same old approach is taken. I think MM understands this.
Whatever the approach is, more money has to be freed up to get some new talent. We got a week before we know this answer.
My mock scenario:
- Restructure Nelson and Matthews
- Cut Cobb and Bulaga
- Sign Wilkerson & a top CB FA
- Sign fast WR like Moncrief
- Fill in low dollar FA OL & TE Rodgers
- Whittle down 12 draft picks to get better quality
- Pick in first 4 rounds: CB, WR, Edge Rusher, OL & TE (not in any order)
To me this is good enough to be called aggressive. And it will show that the club leadership is making an effort to make it to the super bowl. This will demonstrate to Rodgers the club is series.
Then more of the same in 2019, because there will be new holes. And..... TT retires after 2018. He needs to go.
Bure9620
March 07, 2018 at 02:03 pm
I like your restructure idea but remember that cuts both ways, if the player says no to the restructure, you need to be ready to release him. Restructuring CMIII makes the most sense as he will not garner anything even sniffing $12 mil on the open market and he has $0 dead money if cut, so the Packers actually have the most ammo with him. I feel his production can be replaced the easiest of all the Vets. That $12 million could be used to sign a WR with wheels, a FA corner or Edge rusher and offer a signing bonus to Mo Wilk,
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 02:11 pm
That would be quite aggressive. It would have about 28M FA money?
My mock scenario (sign2, cut2):
This would have about 28M-33M FA money?
-Cutt Cobb. Cut Matthews (only if we can find better FA than Matthews, if not then cut Bulaga)
-Sign top Pass rusher($$) (cut Matthews) and sign CB($)
Or
-Sign top CB($$) (keep Matthews, cut Bulaga) and sign Pass rusher($)
-Restructure veterans Nelson, Matthews/Bulaga
-Draft the best WR; Ridley; exactly what we need; explosive, good hands, deep threat, speed and quickness. He will become All-Pro player with ARod.
So.... Sign two top defensive players and draft offensive player with 14th pick (Ridley if available). Move up spot or two if needed.
We can’t ignore our offense year after year. We have to give our offense TOP weapon too, otherwise our offense might suck next year.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 02:06 pm
My question would be if I was Rodgers;
when are we getting more talent on the offense AND defense.
We have been drafting defensive players like crazy. Pettine will get more out of them than Dom.
So let’s help offense too. Once in awhile...
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 02:08 pm
After we draft WR Ridley, my question will be:
Who should we draft next year with the 32th pick?
mrtundra
March 07, 2018 at 04:18 pm
I read a story on Ridley. Some coach would say they would put Ridley into a practice when the defense was getting cocky. Ridley would demolish the defense on the play giving them an attitude adjustment in the process. Ridley at 14 would be alright by me.
dobber
March 07, 2018 at 02:14 pm
Growing up on the farm, my Dad used to say not to get attached to the animals (cattle in this case): they're livestock, not pets. Of course, kids still want to make pets out of the animals, but once a couple went off to market with much anguish and gnashing of teeth (that didn't make any difference), you got the picture. We still had favorites, but we didn't get too attached. It would be demeaning to refer to players and people (with career hopes and families) as callously as calling them livestock, but the analogy seems to fit. We should have favorites, but we can't be so attached that we don't handle them objectively and understand the moves that need to happen when they need to happen.
Bearmeat
March 07, 2018 at 03:27 pm
That's exactly it. I really appreciate Jordy, Randall, Clay and Bryan's contributions. They've all been great players for us for years. But in each and every case, they're playing out bad contracts. I've said as much repeatedly over the past couple of weeks and been shredded to pieces for it.
In a hard-cap league, that presents problems.
The Packers have old front-line players who are expensive and aren't actually front-line players in terms of production. And they have very little depth behind them.
Not a recipe for success. If Gute wants to put his stamp on the team, the author is right: He has to move on from at least one, if not two of those vets.
mrtundra
March 07, 2018 at 04:26 pm
If I had to choose a WR to keep between Nelson and Cobb, I'd have to pick Cobb. Nelson seems to have lost a step after his knee injury. Cobb has been the go to receiver between the two when we run slants and plays across the middle. Jordy is still great, but, at this point, I feel Cobb has more upside and gas in the tank.
Johnblood27
March 07, 2018 at 11:43 pm
MOOOOOOOO!!!
croatpackfan
March 08, 2018 at 02:15 am
MOOOOOO?
BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
Spock
March 08, 2018 at 10:43 am
dobber,
Excellent analogy! Fan attachment to players (I'm as guilty as anyone) can get in the way of the "armchair GM's" here and on other sites. Objectivity HAS to be one of the traits of a good GM. Ron Wolf famously was quoted as saying it was better to cut a player one year before they were likely to be less effective than a year too late.
Razer
March 07, 2018 at 01:37 pm
To get aggressive we must flirt with rebuild and nobody really wants to go there. At 6-7 million cap space you need to start cutting off body parts and scabbing new pieces on. If you want to push all the chips in for next year then there will be a fair amount of slash and burn.
I think we did the right thing by moving on from Thompson and revamping coaching staff on both sides of the ball. We will gain from the reorganization of the talent that is already here. Making a bunch of rash player changes to for the sake of change isn't my preference. Cutting some of Rodgers favorite and productive targets to sign Moncrief who's had one season over 500 yards and 7 TDs sounds foolhardy not aggressive.
I am hoping that within 2 years we have added enough talent, shed some expenses, resigned Rodgers and are contending for the NFC championship. This is aggressive in my mind. Anything more aggressive than this will be a rebuild
Thegreatreynoldo
March 07, 2018 at 08:31 pm
Foolhardy vs. being aggressive. It is a fine line, and a matter of perspective. I'm not arguing with you: just suggesting if the GM believes in his own judgment, then thinking of making move X or Y is aggressive. Yet, I am sure TT thought signing Bennett was just being aggressive: heck, he might have viewed it as relatively safe!
Gianich
March 07, 2018 at 09:12 pm
I prefer dobber's "don't get too attached" rather than self mutilating, scabby regenerating lizard....
4thand1
March 07, 2018 at 01:44 pm
I wouldn't want to be a GM.
Razer
March 07, 2018 at 01:51 pm
I hear you.
croatpackfan
March 08, 2018 at 02:17 am
Your wish is approved!
Bure9620
March 07, 2018 at 02:11 pm
My main concern this FA period is the Russ Ball factor, as we are relatively close to the cap with Vets entering their final years of their deals. Exactly how much veto power does Russ Ball have with FA signings?? He is essentially on the same level as BG as both report to Murphy. He could block several of these signings from happening citing financial reasons.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 02:17 pm
Let’s hurt some feelings!
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 02:37 pm
Unbelievable... people here are so worried if we hurt some multi-millionaires feelings? :D
They will be just fine...
Bure9620
March 07, 2018 at 02:50 pm
??? I Don't care if we hurt feelings, worried Ball could block progression with the roster
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 04:07 pm
Bure, My answer was not against you, sorry if it seemed like that.
It was just my general thought about all of this “friends forever” talk (not about your post).
Bure9620
March 07, 2018 at 04:14 pm
Right on man
Thegreatreynoldo
March 07, 2018 at 08:33 pm
I don't think Ball is on the same level as Gute. I hope not.
croatpackfan
March 08, 2018 at 02:21 am
Ball is actually over Gutekunst! Look at the positions...
Russ Ball, Executive Vice President/Director of Football Operations
Brian Gutekunst, General Manager
You have it on packers.com/team/front-office.html
We only have Mark Murhpy's word that Gutekunst will have final word regarding roster...
Lare
March 07, 2018 at 02:14 pm
The point is, a team can't get better by overpaying players. It just takes away too much money that can be used better elsewhere. I doubt if many teams in the NFL would be willing to pay players like Nelson, Matthews, Cobb and Bulaga what the Packers are paying them unless they think they can increase their production.
It's never easy to get rid of veterans, but GM's have to do what they have to do if they expect to have quality talent & depth on their roster.
Ryan Graham
March 07, 2018 at 03:23 pm
I respectfully disagree. Obviously the team that one the SB in the 10/11 season is done and gone officially with the firing of Capers and various staff members along with the strong arm-ing of Ted Thompson (praise be to God/Yaweh/Allah/the Earth itself). only five players from that roster remain in Crosby, aging Bulaga, Matthews and Nelson, and of course Rodgers. Everyone else has either moved on or retired.
There is only One - count em - ONE person's job who is safe in Green Bay and I wouldn't say it's BG. Hes already on the clock, unfortunately that's the state of organization currently. All other personnel should be feeling rather uncomfortable because jobs are not safe. Expecting better results from guys like Bulaga, Cobb, Matthews and Nelson is fine, but one outside-the-box strategy to getting aggressive would be to restructure, extend or cut one or more of these players. It would make the rest of the team even more so uncomfortable considering they were all cornerstones at one point. Not to mention, just because they are cut doesn't mean they can't be resigned for a more team friendly deal...
One thing to be considered that no one wants to touch: Is it not possible that Rodgers could be thinking about moving on with the lack of talent and execution put around him? Just saying, it's not impossible Rodgers leaves GB in the dust.
stockholder
March 07, 2018 at 02:28 pm
To Whom it may Concern: Dear Henny Penny; The packers want cuts for A-Rods contract. Forget the aggressive free -Agent signings you hope for. The Cry for more Cap room will only be wasted. This is a weak free-Agency class. Their going to blow smoke up your butt to get money. ( Money another club did not want to pay. ) Fly as High as you want! The signing of free -agents do not contain," the sky is the limit". The heart of any team is the draft. Need? Depth is needed only. To cut players for depth; , Is only to fantasize about the latest playboy model. Make your wish list all you want. Depth is not worth more cap problems. The packers aren't going to change their spots yet. Your tearing down the roster because you've lost faith in management. It's important to energize the teams chemistry. Losing one's head can set the packers back years.
Ryan Graham
March 07, 2018 at 03:30 pm
This was in response to Stockholder
Spock
March 08, 2018 at 10:26 am
Ryan,
This is why I ALWAYS put a name to my replies. Sometimes a reply is way down the list when it shows up on the comment list. It's a simple thing to do and eliminates confusion. My advice: give it a try! :)
Razer
March 07, 2018 at 03:13 pm
...The Packers need to draft better. It's not a secret. That's why we have a new GM. The Packers needed better coaching so we didn't look lost on offense without Arod. On defense especially without Burnett. The Packers have a new DC, Philbin is back. Lets see what we can do with these changes before we throw money around at a relatively weak FA market...
You had me at we need to draft better - well said.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 03:22 pm
draft better, sign better, coach better, play better... problem solved for all 32 teams.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 03:21 pm
They might pick him at #8 or they might not. No one knows for sure. So what’s the point? If we can get him it would be then steal.
You didn’t read my post? If we can not find somebody better than Matthews we keep him. Everything is connected.
3-4 or 4-3? It really doesn’t matter, listen what DC Pettine is saying. Let’s not be afraid of somekind of change in our defense.
So you’re looking quality FA players but you are not willing to pay them?
How come you are so sure about Wilkerson? ;) How much would you pay him?
Superbowl teams use free agency effectively, they don’t just wait drafts. They use both effectively.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 05:30 pm
JS. I hear you.
It usually takes some time to rookie WR to accomplish a connection between QB. IMO This is a very good reason to get no1 WR now and not wait another year. Next year ARod will be one year older...
In the long run... I have just feeling this guy will be All-Pro, especially if he is playing with a qb like ARod. He looks like a playmaker. More early we get him involved the better.
ARod makes WRs look good. But once in a lifetime I would like to see what he can do with draft’s top WR (Ridley). It might be something really great. It would be big shoes for this young man, but I think he would be ready to fill those expectations. I would keep veteran Nelson couple years to guide him.
What do you think if we sign Wilkerson, but cut Matthews&Cobb and sign some top CB? If we can get Trumaine with 13-15M? Would somebody step up, Biegel? Our total sack numbers might go up. Pettine might get more out from our young players. I have a lot trust on Pettine.
“Having ARod on offense putting up a lot of points”
We take this as a granted... but he needs a fresh new weapon. It is a perfect time to give it to him.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 08:03 pm
It’s good to read your opinions about this coming draft and Landry. Interesting times.
Sometimes it feels like this forum is “espn’s echo chamber”... Different opinions than “espn” is not tolerated here lol ;)
I don’t think he is Julio or Megatron... we don’t have top5 pick. He would be perfect at 14th. We would not pick him at #5 and he would not be available at #25.
His measurements and playing style are more similar to Marvin Harrison who was picked 19th.
Just look at these clips
https://m.youtube.com/results?q=calvin%20ridley%20highlights&sm=1
We are missing this kind of player. Great route runner, separation before and after the catch. Speed with catching skills.
We have one good receiver now, Adams. Before Jordy retires I would hope he would teach Ridley what it takes to be a successful NFL player. After Jordy retires in a year or two? we would have Adams and Ridley, as a great duo, ready to demolish opponents defenses. And he will be a weapon already later this year and keep developing more and more.
I don’t count Williams and Jones as a “weapons”. I hope Jones stays healthy and he continues to play good. They are good duo to have. I hope they bring continuity to running game.
We could study all day these draftees and still make a wrong decision. Let’s hope we hit one or two difference makers in this draft. And that they will stay healthy.
I strongly believe Ridley will be a difference maker in playoffs and Superbowls. He should be drafted by the Green Bay Packers.
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 05:33 pm
**double post
Royalty Free GM
March 07, 2018 at 02:58 pm
Developing story: Do we need CB Sherman?
4thand1
March 07, 2018 at 03:16 pm
How will he recover after the achilles injury. If he was even around 90% I say yes.
Lare
March 07, 2018 at 05:13 pm
The bad news with signing outside free agents is that you really don't know what you're going to get.
That bad news in keeping status quo with players like Cobb, Nelson, Matthews, Burnett and Bulaga is that you know what you'll get for your $50 million, at a step slower pace than they were last year.
Lare
March 07, 2018 at 06:30 pm
Good point. I don't think any WR's on the planet will ever be able to make Hundley a legitimate NFL QB.
HankScorpio
March 07, 2018 at 07:29 pm
The thing about Matthews, Cobb and Nelson being in the last years of their contracts means there is the cap saving opportunity in you want to extend them. Those big salaries become mostly SB on extension and cap number goes down while player still gets a big pay day.
In playing around with extending those 3 at overthecap.com, I got up to $34 mil in space. Actual mileage may vary. I probably was too aggressive in cutting their AAVs. But $12-$15 mil in cap savings is doable while still paying those 3 a lot of cheddar. That fundamentally alters the cap outlook without changing the roster at all.
Spock
March 08, 2018 at 10:52 am
Hank, "Actual mileage may vary." made me almost spit out my water. That was hilarious! I agree that it is more likely we see some extended contracts (especially Clay and Nelson, Cobb I think he holds all the cards).
Fire_Gute
March 07, 2018 at 07:54 pm
If Cobb and Nelson are on this team with their current salary it means gutekunst either has no power or no talent for this job. I'm not sure which one is worse, no talent just means he's a bad hire, no power means this whole power structure is flawed. He said that you can't get better by letting good players out the door, yes you can when you are paying the good players like great ones and can easily get the same production for half price. Players are worth what the market will pay and no one else is paying for the nostalgia.
I haven't liked TT or the TT way for a very long time. Always building for the future. Well pretty sure this is the future and it's not to bright right now. A really good /great off season could change that in a hurry. I think Wilkerson would be a good signing because I think a position of extreme strength (dl) might be easier than trying to shore up all 3 levels of defense.
croatpackfan
March 08, 2018 at 02:23 am
I hope you have some references to support your talent/power evaluator position.
Are you or were you working in some front offices? In NFL?
Fire_Gute
March 08, 2018 at 06:09 am
Nope. Just really don't like the goofy power structure in green bay. Murphy hasn't really been involved in much of the football side, just the financial side of things. And now no one can make a decision without running it by him. Also don't think it's fair for gutekunst to have TT still lurking in the background. I want some new ideas and a new way of doing things in green bay, status quo got us where we are today. Hope gutekunst isn't just a mouth piece for the old regime
dobber
March 08, 2018 at 07:42 am
Why don't we give this a chance to function before we damn it? We have absolutely no idea whether the people in these administrative roles can or can't make it work, and there's no data whatsoever yet to work with--just ambiguous "feelings". Give it a year.
Fire_Gute
March 08, 2018 at 08:09 am
I'm not damning it now. I don't like it but would certainly love to be wrong if it works. But if we don't see some action and some changes soon it's going to be hard to believe that gutekunst is anything more than a mouth piece. I think this is a super important off season. I think about 5 or 6 moves in right direction could put us right back on track and that doing nothing or a couple of moves in the wrong direction could put us in 3rd behind the vikings and lions.
I can not get the last vikings packers game out of my head. Shut out in an empty Lambeau with a bunch of vikings fans chanting. I just really want to feel good about this off season
John Ramble Kirk
March 08, 2018 at 09:47 am
Do you have the same croat, or how can you dismiss another's opinion under the same logic used to dismiss in the first place?
Fire_Gute
March 07, 2018 at 07:55 pm
Double post
Thegreatreynoldo
March 07, 2018 at 08:48 pm
The $8.8M figure for cap space is a bit low. Signing our rookies won't and never has in the past cost the amount set aside in the rookie draft pool. OTOH, it isn't far off from what we really have once the Rule of 51 ends Sept 6 and churn during the season.