Opponent by the Numbers: The Buffalo Bills are Jekyll and Hyde

A brief look at the Packers' Week 4 opponent through the lens of key statistics. 

After two straight games with unsatisfactory results, Packers fans would feel much better about life with a simple, drama-free victory on Sunday. Initially, welcoming the Bills to Lambeau Field appeared to be the perfect remedy for three consecutive rocky performances, but Buffalo handled the Vikings with ease last week, causing some to take notice.

It may be significant that, after a draining 70-minute struggle against each other, both the Packers and the Vikings struggled, and it’s possible that the Bills were merely beneficiaries of the schedule, preying on an exhausted team. But it’s also possible the Bills, including their oft-mocked rookie quarterback, aren’t as bad as advertised.

Buffalo was a playoff team last year, after all. And while the change at quarterback is significant, the departed Tyrod Taylor has shown in Cleveland that he wasn’t exactly the reason the Bills broke their 17-season playoff drought.

75-9

The Bills opened the season about as poorly as possible for a professional team, falling behind by a combined score of 75-9 in their first six quarters. Some of this can be attributed to the Nathan Peterman Experience, but his 18 problematic pass attempts aren’t the only reason the Bills were considered possibly the NFL’s worst team out of the gate. Buffalo lost to Baltimore in its opener by a whopping 44 points, and a 28-6 halftime deficit against the Chargers didn’t help matters.

41-9

That’s the combined score for Bills’ six most recent quarters, a night-and-day contrast to how they opened the season. Granted, the sample size is incredibly small here, but the whole team has played much better since halftime in Week 2. The NFL season is a long, winding road, and it’s unlikely that halftime in a loss against the Chargers will be some grand turning point for Buffalo, but the bottom line is that the Bills are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team. See what I did there? For what it’s worth, Micah Hyde is battling a toe injury and is listed as questionable this week.

22

Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen has looked better than opening-day starter Nathan Peterman did, but Allen is making his biggest contributions on the ground. The seventh overall pick in April’s draft, Allen has 22 rush attempts so far this season, the second most among quarterbacks (Cam Newton).

Allen’s passing statistics have been modest thus far. His numbers through the air have improved game-by-game but he still features just a 55.7 percent completion rate, two touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. Allen has also taken 11 sacks in two and a half games.

But the athletic 22-year-old notched two rushing touchdowns against the Vikings, en route to a 27-6 victory last week. The rushing is both an asset and a crutch for Allen. He’s displayed tremendous athleticism, and—at 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds—is drawing a few Cam Newton comparisons. But he’s also looked very uncomfortable in the pocket so far, bolting at the first sign of pressure and fumbling three times last week.

Can a struggling Green Bay pass rush bother Allen enough to get Allen off-script? What a matchup: it’s the stoppable force against the moveable object! Maybe the more important question is if a team sick of being penalized for being unfriendly to opposing quarterbacks can corral Allen and bring him down cleanly both in the pocket and downfield if Allen takes off.

289

This is more miscellany than anything else, but Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander weighed in at 289 pounds at the 2007 scouting combine. Then a defensive tackle prospect out of Cal who ran a 5.12 second 40-yard dash, Alexander has since transformed his body and his game, recording 12.5 sacks in 2016 and earning second-team AP All-Pro recognition.

These days Alexander is a bit more of a Swiss Army knife than a pure pass rusher, but the 35-year-old is still a solid contributor defending the run, in coverage or while rushing the passer.

44.3

That’s the coverage rating, according to Pro Football Focus, of first-round pick Tremaine Edmunds, the worst on the team. The rookie linebacker is the Bills’ leading tackler and their only defender to play all 202 snaps this season, but he’s given up 23 catches on 27 targets for 242 yards, including 133 yards after the catch.

It’s reasonable to anticipate linebackers yielding a relatively high completion percentage when guarding only running backs and tight ends, but the yards after catch could be a key factor as McCarthy and Co. look to find the ideal balance in utilizing all three running backs.

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Matt Kelley is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter via @hustleandheart1

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Comments (12)

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Minniman's picture

September 28, 2018 at 04:51 pm

Take a leaf from the John Harbaugh playbook in nullifying Kaep in the Superbowl - set the edge, contain the run and make the rookie QB beat you through the air.

On the other side of the ball, insert Lewis into the game often and keep Rodgers safe so he doesn't create turnovers - the turnovers seem to be what killed the vikes vs the bills

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Savage57's picture

September 29, 2018 at 07:11 am

Asking the Packers to set and hold the edge is like asking Trump to just put the phone down.

Probably not gonna happen.

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PatrickGB's picture

September 28, 2018 at 05:01 pm

Expect the Bills to test us deep and have the QB run the ball. Expect it because everyone else has done it and it has worked. As Minni has said, set the edge. Also mug the receivers and stick with them. That’s the best way to get the coverage sacks and frustrate the young QB. Have Matthews hug and kiss the QB. Give Brice a GPS. On offense, run the ball and don’t avoid the quick completion in the middle. Forget about the long developing play, just take what you can get and the RAC’s will come.

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cheesycowboy's picture

September 28, 2018 at 06:17 pm

The Packers have epitomized the Bills struggles from quarter to quarter as well as game to game.
1-1-1 is being generous. The Pack could be easily 0-3 and the Bears 3-0. We are almost at the quarter pole and the track is muddy.

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Samson's picture

September 28, 2018 at 10:06 pm

Ooops ...
Now you're in trouble. --- The homers will eat you alive for posting that the Pack "could easily be 0-3".

Only thing, you're right. --- The Pack in season 2018 have played 3 substandard games & are fortunate to be 1-1-1. --- If this season doesn't improve considerably from this game forward, look at the HC --- his name is McCarthy.

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Chuck Farley's picture

September 28, 2018 at 08:48 pm

Dont know anymore. If their rookie qb can light up the pass d, then it's going to be a long season. King ain't coming back anytime soon and Brice is a doofus.
What a shame considering the picks we used to shore up the pass d the last four drafts and it's gotten us Zippo. Rodgers with his gimpy knee ain't passing us out of this fn mess

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BoCallahan's picture

September 28, 2018 at 08:55 pm

Alright, this may be a foolish question but I just have to ask: Those football icons with flames shooting out or with faces on them, do they represent anything? I am not noticing a pattern. Does the author simply choose the one he/she likes?

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Lphill's picture

September 29, 2018 at 08:24 am

So Josh Allen is already bragging online the Packers will need to keep a spy on him , I think this game Clay needs an actual roughing the passer flag and introduce Mr Allen to the NFL .

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dobber's picture

September 29, 2018 at 09:09 am

If you're going to pick someone to plant Allen, I wouldn't pick CMIII to do it. At this stage, he's being watched by the officials. I'd let someone like Burks bury him when he rolls out.

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Ryan3468's picture

September 29, 2018 at 11:05 am

Play better than average defense, and run the ball. Mercedes Lewis should play. Jimmy Graham is the oldest joke. Save him for the red zone. If that even works. If the Packers can’t find an identity soon, and be consistent put in Kizer, and use the healthy running backs.

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PatrickGB's picture

September 29, 2018 at 03:29 pm

If Cobb does not play, then, hopefully, the game plan changes. MVS is the speedster that many of us have called for. Now, I wonder if MM has a clue what do do with him? We have had success attacking the middle of the field but most of the time Rodgers has not had enough time to actually take advantage of it because he is limping for his life. Bring in Lewis, run Jones, throw to Tonyan or Monty. On defense play one more DB instead of a safety. Our safety play is...not good.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 29, 2018 at 08:35 pm

"Can a struggling Green Bay pass rush bother Allen enough to get Allen off-script?"

We have no pass rush. Move CM to middle and do not play Fackrell. Forget about Matthews playing outside. This is a perfect disaster in the making because of his tendency to overrun the play. Keep him back in the middle back as a safeguard and sideline-to-sideline coverage. Play Gilbert as much as possible.

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