Josh Jacobs Has Something To Prove
New Packers' back wants to re-establish as elite.
By KenLass
So Josh Jacobs is now a Green Bay Packer. I only saw him play once last year. That was against Green Bay in week five in Las Vegas. With my curiosity up, I have gone back and rewatched that game. It must be viewed with the perspective that the entire Raiders offense was struggling mightily under new coach Josh McDaniels, and after the departure of quarterback Derek Carr. Jacobs carried 20 times for 69 yards, a 3.45 yard average. Considering the way Green Bay’s defense was vulnerable to the run last year, that was less than impressive.
However, on three of his 20 carries, Jacobs was immediately hit behind the line of scrimmage by unblocked defenders and tackled for a loss, once each by Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt and Kingsley Enagbare. He also had no chance on a short pass in the flat, being hit and tackled as soon as he touched the ball by Keisean Nixon. Overall, Jacobs was actually outperformed by AJ Dillon, who ran with more power and who outrushed Jacobs by seven yards. (Aaron Jones did not play due to injury)
But the difference between Dillon and Jacobs became clear on a run in the third quarter. Jacobs took the ball and broke to the edge on the right side. As he cleared the outside linebacker and prepared to turn the corner, Jaire Alexander stood squarely in his path. Jacobs showed Jaire a hard step to the outside, and then cut on a dime back inside, completely fooling Alexander and leaving him in the dust. Jacobs then exploded into the secondary for 24 yards. It was the kind of move Dillon could never make. The kind of move that helped Jacobs lead the NFL in rushing in 2022. It was, to put it precisely, an elite move.
On another snap, Jacobs bulldozed his way straight up the middle for nine yards, breaking an arm tackle by Nixon at the line of scrimmage, and dragging Darnell Savage with him for the final four yards. He also caught all five of his passing targets for another 20 yards. On his three yard touchdown carry, he powered through a pair of arm tackles at the goal line.
Jacobs began to hit his stride in week nine, running for 98 yards and two scores against the Giants. He followed that up with 116 yards on the ground against a rugged Jets defense. Two weeks later in week twelve against the Chiefs he put up 110 yards and a touchdown. He was coming on strong, reasserting himself as one of the top backs in the league.
But in the fourth quarter of week thirteen against the Vikings, Jacobs carried for one yard and Vikings safety Harrison Smith fell across his right leg. Jacobs limped off the field and out of the game. As it turned out, it would be the end of his season.
In the NFL, out of sight means out of mind. The former Alabama star fell from the ranks of what observers would call the “elite” level of running backs. It didn’t help that his team staggered to an 8-9 finish, ranked 27th in total offensive yards, and 30th in rushing yards. The Raiders wanted Jacobs back. They reportedly had an offer on the table that was worth more than the franchise tag. Clearly, they still viewed him as elite. But damage had been done to the relationship the previous summer, when Las Vegas declined to pay him top level money, even after he had led the league in rushing. There were reports Jacobs would hold out of training camp. The team slapped him with the franchise tag for $10.1 million. The 5-10, 223 pound back would go on to play the season, but the decline of the team, combined with a coaching change, convinced him a fresh start somewhere else was needed.
Green Bay is paying him like an elite back. He will make over $14 million in 2024. That’s the highest cash payout in the NFL for a running back in 2024. His deal averages $12 million per year, which ranks him sixth among all backs. Clearly, the Packers feel he can make a complete recovery. The contract is structured to allow the team to get out of the deal without much pain after one year.
In Green Bay, Jacobs will have a better offensive line, better offensive coaches, a better quarterback with a better passing game to complement him, and a team poised to make a deep playoff run. In other words, Jacobs will have every opportunity to reclaim his stake as one of the best running backs in the league. In an article for jsonline.com this week, Pete Dougherty writes that an unidentified personnel executive for another NFL team still ranks Jacobs as a top five running back, and that he would actually be in the running for second best back in the league, behind only Christian McCaffery.
Jacobs will get every chance to prove that in Green Bay. The guess here is that he will.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (48)
Cheezehead72
March 15, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Two things a RB wants and you can pick which is more important to a RB.
Good offensive line.
Good passing game.
harleycops
March 15, 2024 at 12:14 pm
How 'bout both / and
Coldworld
March 15, 2024 at 12:35 pm
Without at least a decent OL, neither will happen. The difference now is that just pass blocking won’t cut it. We need to do more than just hold the line or minimize retreats. That was an issue last year, but it’s more so now.
MooPack
March 15, 2024 at 01:01 pm
Agree, with this latest move (and Dillon brought back) the team went from a more finesse offense to a bit more power. Need to get the horses up front to move guys off and open bigger run lanes. They may just be looking at OLinemen that are bigger than they have in years past. Kaleb Jones brought back (you have to ask yourself why a man this big was even on the roster to begin with if that is a body type they don't covet). Looking at past drafts for what you think the Packers will draft may be a fools errand.
LLCHESTY
March 15, 2024 at 03:10 pm
I doubt they'll be looking for bigger O linemen. They used some power running plays in '22,mainly pin and pull plays, but went away from it last year. Their average per rush dropped from 4.6 to 4.3 but that's probably because Jones missed more time in '23 and it was down a little across the league. We might see them bring back some power concepts but I wouldn't expect a wholesale change from outside zone without an OL coaching change.
What I'm hoping for isn't bigger but nastier. There are quite a a few athletic iOL in this draft class that like to put guys in the ground. I'm hoping for two of them and will be disappointed if they don't get any.
Tundraboy
March 15, 2024 at 07:33 pm
Yes nasty is a key requirement. Others have a lot ,us not as much.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 15, 2024 at 04:34 pm
Absolutely! And Gutey needs to add 3. This has to be a focus this draft.
dblbogey
March 15, 2024 at 05:14 pm
It's a good year for talented college OT's who can/should play inside. We need to improve C and RG so let's get 1 or 2 of them.
bjkdad44
March 15, 2024 at 01:55 pm
Excellent commentary
BA4Pack
March 15, 2024 at 12:12 pm
It is a shame A Jones couldn’t be paired up with JJ.
J Love, JJ, 2 ascending TE’s and a diverse WR core makes this offense really special.
As we all know this is a deep OL draft. Let go get us a good one!
SicSemperTyrannis
March 15, 2024 at 04:35 pm
A good THREE, to replace 4 that we're losing.
dblbogey
March 15, 2024 at 05:16 pm
If Royce Newman is among the ones we're losing, that's a good thing.
PhantomII
March 15, 2024 at 08:48 pm
#1 pick OL , #2 High pick Wright RB (Tenn). #2 Pick OL, #3 Pick OL....That's the way I would start this draft off...
jvole
March 15, 2024 at 12:25 pm
Besides better moves, I think Jacobs will be the back that Dillon was supposed to be--A big guy who toughs out short yards after being hit and either scores or gets the 1st down. Jones was incredible at this for his size, but it never became a hallmark for Dillon who seemed to go down on first contact more often than not. I think we still need the speed / shifty back who can make people miss (Wilson?).
bjkdad44
March 15, 2024 at 01:57 pm
Would be nice to see it be Wilson!
SicSemperTyrannis
March 15, 2024 at 04:38 pm
Dillon as lead blocker in the Kyle Juscyk role would be incredible! Do you really want to stand in his way in that scenario?!? I sure as hell don't.
Only issue is he's such a nice guy, can he bring the nasty? He knocked a few people out of the Chiefs game, for being stupid enough to try to tackle him. I think he can do it.
TKWorldWide
March 15, 2024 at 09:32 pm
Back at Boston College, a scout said Dillon “ran hard but not violently”. I think that’s accurate after seeing him in GB the last 4 years. He can still be a good change of pace from JJ.
Alberta_Packer
March 15, 2024 at 11:52 pm
Jacobs ran a mid 4.6 at the NFL combine - so I've come to realize how important point-of-contact balance is for a RB. Simply, Jacobs often maintains his balance upon first, second and even third contact - while always going forward. Dillon does not have the same innate balance as Jacobs. Nor is he likely ever to develop it. Thus the difference between a 12M/yr. contract and a 2.5M/yr. contract.
Oppy
March 16, 2024 at 01:31 am
Jacobs also re-tested and ran twice between 4.52 and 4.56.
There's tape of him pulling away from NFL DB's.
He's not a race horse, but his speed is not an issue.
Coldworld
March 16, 2024 at 10:32 am
He’s had plenty of long TDs over his career. Ultimately slow runners don’t get many of those. He’s got adequate long speed and change of pace.
Cheezehead72
March 15, 2024 at 12:28 pm
On a different note I just read Aaron Donald is retiring.
CoachJV
March 15, 2024 at 12:32 pm
It's a crying shame that we couldn't dish out another million to keep Jones. They would have been a great tandem
Cheezehead72
March 15, 2024 at 12:35 pm
I am not sure another million would have done it. I believe that Jones was upset with the Packers for asking him to take a big salary cut after he cut it last year.
What I am surprised about is that he signed so quickly for 7 million. I believe he could have got more or a 2 year contract.
MainePackFan
March 15, 2024 at 01:27 pm
"I believe that Jones was upset with the Packers for asking him to take a big salary cut after he cut it last year."
Nothing for him to get upset about. He knew the pay cuts were inevitable (if he wanted to stay with the Packers) from the day he signed the original contract. Just like Jacobs knows right now, Jones was never going to get 48M.
The surprise was how much (in his opinion) the Packers low-balled him. He took the guaranteed 2M. Why wouldn't he? After all, as we have heard ad nauseum in here, he's going to 30 someday : )
dblbogey
March 15, 2024 at 05:25 pm
"He took the guaranteed 2M. Why wouldn't he? After all, as we have heard ad nauseum in here, he's going to 30 someday :" He took $2 million to play for a mediocre team rather than finish in GB with a very talented team (with a 1000% better chance at a Super Bowl), where he's loved and would retire a Packers legend. He could have stayed. He's made $40 million from the Packers, and outside income, I doubt money is a problem for him. Maybe he felt "disrespected" but the Packers pretty much offered him what the open market decided he was worth.
MainePackFan
March 15, 2024 at 07:15 pm
He's made 34.6M in his career but your point is taken. However, your argument lacks context. The NFL is a multi-billion-dollar industry. None of these stars will be filing for food stamps.
The question is, as a Packers fan do you think he deserved the extra 2M. I do, and I'm sure he did to. The market value was 2M higher than the Packers would pay. That's proven by the fact the Vikings guaranteed 2M more.
Let's stop pretending the Packers didn't have the extra money in the checking account. They had enough to pay Nixon the same money they offered Jones. 4M guaranteed with 2 million in incentives. I don't remember Gutekunst saying that Nixon was the heart and soul of the team.
I like Nixon, but I would much rather have Jones paired with Jacobs for an extra guaranteed 2M. It's irrelevant at this point, I just hope Gutekunst got it right.
Racingdad
March 16, 2024 at 11:16 am
I think the offer had more to do with jones missing games and even when he was not hurt needed plenty of snaps off. In Josh Jacobs we get younger and a plan for the future we can all admit that this was/is probably jones last year anyway. Look. Sucks he’s gone. But happy Jacob’s is here !!!
Racingdad
March 16, 2024 at 11:09 am
DB you nailed it
Coldworld
March 15, 2024 at 12:38 pm
For a year, maybe longer if he could be a luxury weapon. Who knows if we would have had they continued to talk. However, we would still have needed to look for the next Jones to expand the offensive options now and address the future previously.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 15, 2024 at 05:26 pm
Addressing the future previously? I'm trying to imagine which poster here you're channeling, lol.
Starrbrite
March 15, 2024 at 01:23 pm
Agreed—they would have been an excellent team if rb’s.
MooPack
March 15, 2024 at 12:35 pm
If he is somewhere in between his production in 2022 and 2023, this move will be a very good one. Average of 1600+ yards in '22 and 800 in '23 is 1200 yards. And 12 TD's and 6 TD's is 9. Going from a Raiders to team to the Packers, I'm leaning toward the former year than the latter. With all the weapons this Offense is going to have, good Lord, how do you spread the ball around? Great problem to have. Pick your poison. It's going to be fun to watch.
LLCHESTY
March 15, 2024 at 03:19 pm
McCaffrey was the only back to go over 1200 yards last year. I don't care about yards so much as efficiency. He had a horrible decline from 4.8 yards a carry to 3.5. The four games he was hurt Zamir White came in and had 397 yards and a 4.7 average.
With the Packers passing offense he should face lighter boxes and needs to get that average back to at least 4.6 yards a carry or they wasted some money. 4.8-5 would be better.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 15, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Here's an interview with him in GB:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uwDfseXINLQ
Great guy, GREAT attitude! Added bonus: he's long term friends with the hungriest player on the team, #25. If Jacobs can match that intensity?!? WOW this could be a great season!
Spock
March 16, 2024 at 09:17 am
Thanks for the link! He seems like a very intelligent and likeable young man. I also watched the McKinney interview and It's interesting that he and Jacobs played together at 'Bama.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 15, 2024 at 01:10 pm
Jacobs is the 6th highest paid RB in the league. He makes 50% than the 7th highest paid RB in the league. Gute bet big on him. His one-year out is pretty bad: $14.8M with $9.375M dead and only $1.95M in savings is a bit tough to swallow. 1-year outs on 4-year deals are usually bad and GB's MO of using large signing bonuses doesn't help.
Overall, the deal is reasonably team friendly. His signing bonus was 26.04% of the total value of the contract, a little light for the Packers but RBs tend to get less fully guaranteed in the NFL as a whole. Since the only guaranteed money in most GB contracts is the signing bonus, that tends to make first year cash strong in their deals. Here, his first year cash is 30.8% driven by the SB, as the rest is vet. min for a base salary, and GB's preferred numbers for workout bonus (here $600K) and game active ($500K in '24 and '25, jumping to $700K in '26 and '27). His cash flow over the first two years is a little sluggish at 47.9% (51% or 52% would be more normal - but he's a RB). Note the very low $1.17M base salary for year two - heck, it's less than his 2024 base salary. However, he gets a roster bonus that year for $5.93M as well and base plus roster adds up to $7M cash. That's just how they decided to split it up. Jacobs gets $1.1M more in W/O and GA bonuses. His three-year cash flow remains sluggish at 71.875%.
Savings to Dead money ratios are always terrible after one season. After two, savings with no restructure the ratio would be $8.375M savings to $6.25M dead. That's acceptable, though not fantastic.
Starrbrite
March 15, 2024 at 01:26 pm
I’m always amazed at many of your abilities to track the money details—I’m impressed and enlightened. Thee must be several CPA’s on this site.
One thing for me however—I’m not a Cap worrier.
Coldworld
March 15, 2024 at 02:25 pm
A year ago he’d have been the best back. I’d say plus or minus a place or two that’s a pretty reasonable ranking and bet after 2023 and being 26. It’s not one I contemplated, but it’s not a risk or price I can overly fault.
Starrbrite
March 15, 2024 at 02:29 pm
Agree CW
Tundraboy
March 15, 2024 at 07:45 pm
Glad you're here to sort that out!
Starrbrite
March 15, 2024 at 08:20 pm
Tsk tsk
Pack88
March 15, 2024 at 03:50 pm
Ken: You made a great point when you mentioned that 24 yard run against GB this season. First, I like AJ Dillon as a human being - and he is incredibly popular in GB but you are right about that one step cut against Alexander. Every season is different and I had the same impression about the Raiders Offense in the 1st half of the season. Green Bay has a similar evolution last year. No way Dillon makes that cut. Power backs often are not elusive and AJ fits that mode. So while I'm sad 33 won't be here I suspect Jacobs will slither and pummel his way to a lot of yards in Green Bay. I suspect he will make Dillon more effective because he will also wear on them and Dillon is very much more effective in the 4th Qtr.
Vachio
March 15, 2024 at 09:34 pm
I'm honestly super excited to see what Jacobs and Dillon can do together. Jacobs is explosive but he's not what anyone would call a burner, so we don't really have a Thunder and Lightning duo...but how about The Hammer and The Anvil? Those two are going to be a nightmare for defenses in the 4th quarter when the Pack is playing with a lead. And winter games? Ouch! This has the potential to be super fun!
SicSemperTyrannis
March 16, 2024 at 11:31 am
I hope Dillon gets used in the Kyle Juscyk role, lead blocking for Jacobs. Would YOU want to get in Dillon's way, trying to stop him under that circumstance?!? No disrespect to Jusczyk, but I'd pick him every time iif it's a decision between one or the other.
SinceLombardi
March 15, 2024 at 10:29 pm
But honestly.. avoiding a Jaire Alexander tackle isn’t the hardest thing to do. Lol
cdoemel
March 16, 2024 at 01:04 am
Unfortunately true. Maybe Xavier will give him some tips.
lou
March 16, 2024 at 09:03 am
I think his down year (for him based on past production) was due to his holding out to avoid being tagged, it led to missing valuable OTA and pre-season reps which meant he was not ready but based on his deal he had to get on the field ASAP. Fortunately he did not get injured because of the inactivity, I remember too many Packers who held out and had to play right away and were never the same players, Levens, Freeman, and Franks.
VacavilleBill
March 17, 2024 at 11:25 pm
Emanuel Wilson will be rb 2.
Dillon will be 3.
I expect that if Wilson can protect, he’ll double Dillon’s snap count.