It's BPA All The Way
Packers don't have to reach in this draft.
By KenLass
For a team that was widely considered rebuilding one year ago, the starting line-up for this year’s Green Bay Packers has surprisingly few question marks. There’s really only one slot for which you can say there is no incumbent starter, and that would be the safety position opposite new free agent acquisition Xavier McKinney.
In fact, the situation has changed so dramatically, that the only reason a few other starting slots are undetermined is because there is more than one skilled candidate competing for it. That’s what two good drafts in a row will do for you.
For example, consider tight end. Luke Musgrave was tabbed the starter at the beginning of the season, but Tucker Kraft proved his worth as a weapon for Jordan Love after Musgrave went down. By the end of the year the stats for both were almost identical. Kraft wound up with 355 receiving yards on 31 catches. Musgrave had 352 on 34 receptions. Both are first-team caliber. So who is the starter? It may not really matter. Matt LaFleur may choose to play both of them at the same time. He loves to craft plays utilizing multiple tight ends.
Look at wide receiver. Who would you designate as the two starters right now? Last year it was Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. But Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks finished with more targets, more catches, and more yards than Watson. This was largely due to Watson’s continuing injury issues, limiting him to just nine games. We are a long way from seeing the Packers come out with a depth chart, but when they do it will be most interesting to see how they rank the receivers.
Offensive line seems set. There is every indication Green Bay is willing to at least start out with Rasheed Walker at left tackle. The Packers may well draft a tackle high to compete for the job, but it’s Walker’s to lose for the time being. Zach Tom is the right tackle, and the interior returns Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers and Sean Rhyan. Here again, you could see the team drafting competition for Myers, but a rookie would have to outperform him in camp. The Packers will surely draft o-linemen for depth, but it would be an upset if any of them unseat a veteran.
Of course, the Packers are set at quarterback. Running back is in solid shape with the acquisition of Josh Jacobs and the return of AJ Dillon. A few day-three drafted ball carriers will likely join the camp roster, but even if none hit, the team is in a good place here.
It’s a little tricky to identify starters on the defensive line because of the shift to a 4-3 philosophy by new coordinator Jeff Hafley. But any uncertainty is not because of lack of candidates. Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton and Devonte Wyatt will start in some form or fashion, with second year talents Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks proving capable, and Hafley can move up guys like Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary, who both played with hands on the ground in college.
Quay Walker and Preston Smith are veteran starters in the linebacker corps, as are Kingsley Enagbare and Isaiah McDuffie when healthy. Eric Wilson can play there as well. A highly drafted, hot shot rookie could win a starting spot here, but who would sit?
It’s also going to be fascinating to see how the coaches sort out the corners. They would love to see Eric Stokes regain his rookie form and team with Jaire Alexander. But if Stokes does not impress, Carrington Valentine showed he is ready to play. Corey Ballentine acquitted himself well with his opportunities last fall. Keisean Nixon returns as the slot man. Difficult to see a rookie starting from this room.
Which brings us to safety. McKinney will play all over the formation, but the only other safety with significant playing time is Anthony Johnson. This is really the only slot openly inviting a draft pick to come in and take over immediately. It is not, however, a particularly good crop of safety prospects this year. It would not be a shock if Green Bay brings in yet another free agent veteran at the position if they don’t like what they see in the draft.
Some might say the kicker position is open, but the Packers have already provided plenty of competition for second year veteran Anders Carlson, having signed Jack Podlesny and former Viking Greg Joseph.
So what does all this mean for the coming draft? It means BPA all the way! The fact that few starting slots are open positions the Packers well to focus on best player available in every round. They don’t have to reach to fill a need. They can let the draft come to them.
Certainly there will be injuries during the season so they must build depth in the O-line, secondary and really across the board. But good players will fall to them at 25 in the first round and throughout the draft. General manager Brian Gutekunst can afford to take the highest prospect on his board, without worrying he is neglecting a positional need. Over the course of eleven selections, the various depth concerns will sort themselves out organically.
Sticking faithfully to BPA will result in an overall roster of better talent, especially in the high rounds. Rashan Gary, Jordan Love and Lukas Van Ness are examples of using a first round pick to take best player available, even though the positions they play were not a huge need at the time. That seems to be working out quite well. Expect more of the same.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (30)
LambeauPlain
April 05, 2024 at 12:45 pm
I expect BPA at positions of need with the first 2 days/5 picks at OL, LB, S, CB. Injuries happen and depth at all 4 positions is thin.
I do not believe Smith or Enagbare will be playing LB in the 4-3/4-2 nickel. They will most likely be DEs. So I do not believe Gutey will select a DE in the first two days just because he is rated higher as BPA than a LB who is closely ranked on their board.
Can certainly see Day 3 for quality depth for using BPA at all positions.
splitpea1
April 05, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Nice picture. Murphy looks like a Mack Truck ready to grind someone into the asphalt.
I'm not so sure that we're so set at a couple of positions; and it also depends who we draft. If we draft a top CB, who's to say he can't win a starting job? I think this is especially true at RG, and maybe even center, once again depending on who we draft. In Rhyan we have a small sample size, but certainly not enough to automatically pencil him in as the starter.
Rudy Ford is still out there if we're looking for a veteran at safety. Otherwise we could be looking at rookie to at least get a significant number of snaps if he catches on quickly. Sorry, Johnson, Jr. missed too many tackles to make me feel comfortably here.
I largely agree with the theme here, though. There are plenty of BPAs early on that can help us both now and the future. Reaching is a definite no-no with this draft.
Coldworld
April 05, 2024 at 12:56 pm
We are pretty well set on O except at OL, particularly inside where we have an absolute need. We have no idea what is needed on the DL, but we do have absolute needs at S (box and depth), ILB (probably SAM and depth), Slot (apparently depth) and may have a wish to add more at RB and CB in particular.
I’d say this is as need a driven draft as any based on the numbers need at certain positions and potentially the extra pieces Hafley wants and plausible depth behind them. The only thing is that it’s less clear than usual exactly what the attributes Packers are looking for ideally with the defensive additions.
I don’t see us needing to reach to fill these, but I do see us valuing Hafley types more highly than many pundits will potentially. BPA is always tempered by the need to put together the best overall group.
dblbogey
April 05, 2024 at 05:26 pm
From the article - "The Packers will surely draft o-linemen for depth, but it would be an upset if any of them unseat a veteran. " I totally disagree. If they like an O lineman at 25, it would be surprising if he didn't beat out either Rhyan or Myers.
splitpea1
April 05, 2024 at 07:56 pm
Well then select the BPAs for every position group except QB, WR, TE, and OLB. The most glaring needs are the defensive backfield, ILB, and maybe the IOL, but otherwise I don't see the roster as that starved of talent. Don't worry, Gute won't forget about the needs.
Turophile
April 05, 2024 at 12:56 pm
How you feel about this article depends on how much of a glass half full or glass half empty person you are.
I see needs at ILB, G, C, safety (box), slot corner, 2nd RB, outside corner, backup or starter OT.
Most of the 'needs' aren't critical needs (possibly excepting ILB), so yes the Packers have done what they needed to do to give themselves maximum flexibility during the draft. Who they get is important though, as all teams have to dig into their depth at many positions at some time in the regular season (and playoffs, if applicable). The better the depth, the better the team can manage.
The Packers could easily go Edge and DL early in this draft and I wouldn't blink if they did. Equally they could go IOL or OT early and not surprise me. I have my favourite players to be drafted as most draftniks do, so we will see how closely the guys I like match with those Gute likes.
golfpacker1
April 05, 2024 at 01:07 pm
No matter how you word it or spin it, the Packers still have 5 position needs that are bigger than all the others. And to have a complete team we need to make sure we strengthen the weakest groups first. Not just grab the BPA at any position like DT or Edge. Those positions are strong already.
There is absolutely no depth on the Interior OL, and although I like Sean Rhyan, it's year 3 for him and he hasn't cemented anything. Josh Myers is the weakest OC that the Packers have had in a long time. How about kill 2 birds with 1 stone and target Powers-Johnson if available? Or trade back and select Beebe, Barton , Frazier, Zinter, or Coleman. IOL should be addressed early with a player that can push for a starting job @ OG/OC, not wait until later for average depth.
2 huge holes exist @ LB & S, and since the best players are available in the first 3 rounds, those 2 positions should be filled early also. The top 3 LBs should be available @ #41, and @ #58 we are still probably staring at 8 of the TOP 10 Safeties.
When we drafted Van Ness, it was with the idea he would replace Preston Smith who hadn't played great in 2022. There was a plan there and it wasn't BPA. Love was a pick that absolutely no one saw coming.
GregC
April 05, 2024 at 01:37 pm
I'm not buying it. There are three positions (QB, WR, and TE) with basically no need at all, but every other position has varying needs, including starters needed at safety and LB. (As others have pointed out, Preston Smith and Kingsley Enegbare are not LBs.) So a lot of thought will be going into position groups throughout this draft. The first round pick could be a BPA guy, as it was with Van Ness last year, but after that they should be filling very specific needs with most picks in the second and third rounds and probably into the 4th and 5th as well.
PatrickGB
April 05, 2024 at 01:40 pm
I understand that argument. Yet sometimes ya gotta fill holes.
Doofapotamus
April 05, 2024 at 02:30 pm
No, the Packers are set for the near future and they need to focus on filling the few holes to make the team truly dangerous. Those holes are as follows: starting SS, Starting LB and depth LB, starting RG, starting C and starting CB (nickel, specifically but any talent will do). They need depth at T as well, and could use depth at RB and both S positions but those are the true needs of the team. Edge is not something that can really be upgraded outside of the first and second rounds and there certainly isn't a need for edge rushers over C/G/LB/S. I understand the philosophy of BPA, but GB would be foolish to select BPA with such obvious holes at multiple positions. Where we are drafting, there are lots of options with great value for our needs.
Guam
April 05, 2024 at 02:40 pm
Apparently the author thinks depth is unimportant and injuries don't happen. Yes the Packers only have one starting position open although I might argue that RG is quasi open - Rhyan has not earned that spot yet and only has it by default. However the O-line, linebacker and safety positions are bereft of depth and any significant injury would expose the Packers in any of those three positions.
So BPA my foot. I will echo ColdWorld that this is as much a need driven draft as any in recent memory. Gute may have to move around to match position with draft value, but he has the ammunition to do that and the majority of this draft needs to be focused on those three positions.
Bitternotsour
April 05, 2024 at 04:40 pm
Get to pick 25 and the best player on the board is Bo Nix. Part of me would be delighted to watch peoples heads explode as Gutekunst sends his name to the podium.
Guam
April 06, 2024 at 07:54 am
There are certainly times to pick BPA, particularly when a top player falls to you a la the Aaron Rodgers selection many years ago. Rogers was touted as the potential #1 pick in the draft yet fell into the twenties so the Packers could grab him. I don't think Nix or Penix qualify for that kind of super value selection. And yes, my head would explode.
Without significant excess value at a pick, I would prefer to see Gute move around in the draft to match value to need. I just struggle to see BPA displacement as the most effective roster building tool.
NitschkeFan
April 05, 2024 at 02:47 pm
I think there is almost unanimous disagreement with the title of this article. The team has holes, and the most valuable picks should be used to take BPA at one of those numerous holes.
A few (very few) seem to think we don't need to use valuable draft capital on an OT. I guess they are much higher on Walker than I am. And in terms of depth while we have not seen anything from Luke Tenuta or Caleb Jones, it is probably worth reminding everyone that those two fellows were picked up two years ago and have yet to earn any playing time. Maybe a reminder of their athletics (RAS) scores Tenuta 4.9 and Jones 1.9. Lets not get our hopes up that either of those guys are our swing tackle or god forbid our starting tackle this season.
Ferrari-Driver
April 05, 2024 at 03:16 pm
In the NFL draft I always hope that the Packers can land a "Difference Maker". What is a difference maker? In my mind it is a player who is essentially at or near the best and can influence the outcome of a game. On the offensive line it would be a David Bakhtiari who was a 4th round gem. On defense it would be an Aaron Donald, or a TJ Watt that we had the opportunity to draft a few years back. It's always not easy to identify who the difference makers are, but if you are convinced that a player is likely to become one in your mind...go get him. The NFL is filled with very good players, but it really helps your chances of getting into the post season and beyond if you have some difference makers in the lineup.
CoachJV
April 05, 2024 at 03:17 pm
I agree with a lot of this. It would be nice to fill the LB and Safety spots, but I just hope we don't over-reach for anybody. BPA might be the good way to go this time once all the wheeling and dealing is done.
ShawnO
April 05, 2024 at 03:22 pm
The Packers have a new Defensive coordinator with a new scheme that will likely have emphasis in new areas. They have already started making changes for this reason at the safety position. What team do the Packers want to emulate on Defense?... Correct, the 49ers. What do the 49ers D always have?... Correct, a great D Line and at least one great inside LB and one really good safety. Now ask yourself, are there any great inside LBs that they might draft in the first round? No. are there any really good D Lineman in the first round that they might target? YES and I believe you have the man pictured in this article, Byron Murphy! I think they trade up to grab him.
golfpacker1
April 05, 2024 at 08:08 pm
Don't forget Shawn that the 49ers accumulated all that D-line talent when they sucked for a period of years and had really early first round picks. That helps a lot. Also trading up from #25 will cost next years first round pick. That's pretty steep.
We are picking @ #25 and there won't be difference making DTs available. Sweat is a 2 down guy right now, but I wish we had an extra 2nd round pick to take him as a luxury pick.
GB is better off making DT priority #1 in 2025 where the DT position group is better and deeper.
TKWorldWide
April 05, 2024 at 06:27 pm
BPA is always the way to go. Ask Portland about not taking Michael Jordan because they didn’t need a guard.
golfpacker1
April 05, 2024 at 08:09 pm
Bigs were a lot more important in the NBA back then. Who knew Jordan would be one of the best ever.
TKWorldWide
April 05, 2024 at 08:23 pm
True enough; but i”who knew” can apply to any player.
For me, though, it’s the best way to think about BPA vs need.
For example, my knee jerk to GB picking a wide receiver in rd 1 would be violent opposition. But when that receiver turns out to be Randy Moss, I’d say I was on board right from the start. (Which would be a lie.)
PackEyedOptimist
April 05, 2024 at 06:45 pm
The thing I'm most interested in seeing during this draft, is how Gute approaches the LB position. I'm still expecting a FA to be signed before the draft, and it's possible Gute has a higher opinion of McDuffie, Wilson, or Welch than most of us do. Maybe he swings a trade for a quality, young-ish vet on some team?
But the prospects at LB in this draft are really shaky: Wilson is the best probably, but he's old and oft-injured. Cooper is athletic/fast but has had a lot of missed tackles. Colson is solid, but he isn't "impressive." Gray? Trotter? Full of holes. That's pretty much the guys who might go in the first three rounds! Really an awful crop this year.
But we NEED another ILB to be added SOMEHOW.
PhantomII
April 05, 2024 at 08:23 pm
As far as I'm concerned BPA means you have not moved up in the draft and waited your turn. We need significant upgrades at OT / C / RG. For me if one of those is a Bad Ass Road Grader "UPGRADE" you move up as far as realistically possible for them. If we can get the OL right we will be able to use our real strength we have for the next 4 years in our WR Corps. We will be able to run it or throw to 5 Wideouts in the playoffs...That should be our #1 goal now. The TE's are icing on the cake and would also help the run game be even more dominant with an OL as a strength in the run game. GPG
Johnblood27
April 06, 2024 at 02:58 am
A 'need' that has not been mentioned is a blocking H-Back/FB/TE to fill the important role that Deguara never quite grew into.
A player to fill this role in MLF's offense really opens up the playbook and I guarantee you, even with the success at TE in Musgrave and Kraft, that MLF has spoken with Gutey about this sneaky need.
Another team need is at LS. Carlson gets ALL of the heat for the number of missed kicks, but the 'operation' was at fault for half of the misses. Go back and watch last seasons kicks, many snaps were scattergun located and that is on Orzech. Whelan did a nice job getting the ball down mostly, and Carlson did shank a few, but a good portion of the misses that Carlson is getting crucified for were due to 'operation' inconsistency.
The knocks on Carlson are somewhat deserved, but c'mon man, the kid was a rookie kicker. Most kickers bang around a couple years after college honing their craft before earning a FT job in the NFL. He was always gonna have some growing pains. The pain is magnified with the inconsistent snap location of Orzech. Bring in a quality LS and Carlson will be just fine. ...or Joseph will be the kicker! Lol!
golfpacker1
April 06, 2024 at 09:41 am
Johnblood, when I did my first 20 mock drafts, figuring that the Packers would move on from Deguara, I first researched and then picked an HB in all my mocks. The one I liked was Dallin Holker-Colorado State.
Later I started to realize Deguara was used very little in our offense so I decided for what little we used him, why not just use one of our existing TEs since 3 of them block pretty well. Plus they all catch better with a bigger catch radius, so that helps Love. Being taller helps not hurts the player. Iowa plays with a FB all the time and the current one is 6'6.
I guess I don't see the need unless it's late in the draft. Tip Reiman-Illinois might be ideal @ 6'4 271lbs RAS 9.91.
I agree 100% on the LS, fix what you can fix, that should be easy.
Boneman
April 06, 2024 at 08:23 am
I think your article is perfectly accurate as to the likely starters and the potential of rookies beating them out. I even think your giving Anthony Johnson Jr some disrespect. He played quite a bit for a 7th round rookie, jumping over a slew of veterans to do it. I think with any type of year two jump he can become pretty hard to beat out as the starter. The problem is with the definition of BPA. That is nebulous, slippery opinionated slope my friend. We all know that teams draft boards are set up in tiers and usually there are multiple positions in each tier. You then select a player that is BPA, by tier but also at your targeted positions if available. That way your GM can and does claim BPA in most circumstances. The Packers will draft BPA in the first round IF the player fits their profile, plays a premium position and is available, either falling to them or through trading up. If those criteria are not met, expect them to trade down. Fortunately, targeted areas of need (OL, LB,S) have plenty of players similarly ranked in rounds 2 and 3 so I really do expect a linebacker and safety to be picked then, regardless of the BIG board ranking for BPA.
Racingdad
April 06, 2024 at 09:56 am
After listening to Mike wahle there are only 2 ot’s in this draft that are better? Than Sheed and both go way before gb could get them remember he was a first year starter at one of the most important spots and got better with every game I believe the plan was for him to learn from Bach than take over after Bach was gone but he was trust into the role early even moving past yoush to become the starter yes we need depth behind him and zack Tom but exactly who is that going to be ? Time will tell
Racingdad
April 06, 2024 at 10:00 am
Boneman I hope for lb and safety in second rd oline in both third rd picks first rd ?
Boneman
April 06, 2024 at 07:32 pm
Me too. Look for DeJean or McKinstry in first, Colson in 2nd, Cole Bishop or Hicks in 2nd and two o lineman in 3rd, maybe Rosentrater and Puni. I think that would be spectacular.
stockholder
April 08, 2024 at 10:24 am
I don't see Bo Jackson anywhere?