Is It Time to Invest in an Inside Linebacker?

FEATURE

Is It Time to Invest in an Inside Linebacker?

Making the case for an inside linebacker on night one of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Apr 14, 2020

Brian Gutekunst is nine days away from his third draft as Green Bay’s General Manager, and while we’re starting to pick up on some of his tendencies (like drafting players with high relative athletic scores), we can’t claim to have fully figured out how he operates. That makes his first overall pick at No. 30 wide open. Could he target a wide receiver to give Aaron Rodgers another weapon? Is Rick Wagner only a stop-gap right tackle so Gutekunst will invest heavily along his offensive line this draft? Or, maybe it’s time to make an investment at the inside linebacker position, which is what we’re going to talk about right now.

Blake Martinez was a mainstay and captain on defense during his time with Green Bay (now he’s a passed physical away from becoming a New York Giant). During his 2019 season, he started all 16 regular season games, had one interception, two passes defensed, one forced fumble, three sacks, 155 total tackles, five tackles for loss, and three quarterback hits. Martinez was a fourth round selection in the 2016 NFL Draft and has a 6.41 RAS.

Let’s see how that compares to newly acquired linebacker Christian Kirksey. In 2017 (Kirksey’s last full season), he started all 16 regular season games, had five passes defensed, two forced fumble, one fumble recovery, 3.5 sacks, 138 total tackles, six tackles for loss, and six quarterback hits. Kirksey was a third round selection in the 2014 NFL Draft and has a 7.41 RAS.

These are two starters at their position, both as day two or day three selections in the draft. Both are 6-2, roughly 235 pounds, and have proven they can play at a high level in the NFL.

Now let’s look at the other three inside linebackers currently on the roster for the Packers. First up is Oren Burks, a 6-3, 230lb player out of Vanderbilt. For the purpose of this exercise, these numbers are from his 2017 season. He started 11 games, had 80 total tackles, seven tackles for loss, one sack, one interception, three passes defensed, and one fumble recovery. Burks was selected by the Packers in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft (Gutekunst’s first draft) and has a 9.73 RAS.

In the 2019 Draft, Gutekunst made another linebacker pick in the seventh round, selecting Ty Summers out of TCU. During one of his best seasons (2016), he started 12 games, posted 121 total tackles with five tackles for loss, had 1.5 sacks, and defended three passes. The 6-2, 230lb Summers has a 9.7 RAS.

This is where that high athletic score tendency comes in for Gutekunst. If you’re looking for developmental prospects, get the freakiest athlete you can find and go from there. Burks and Summers both posting scores over 9.7 fit the bill here.

Finally we’ll look at Curtis Bolton out of Oklahoma (whose former teammate is Kenneth Murray, but we’ll get there). During his 2018 season at Oklahoma, Bolton started 14 games, had 142 total tackles with 12 tackles for loss, posted 4.5 sacks, had two passes defensed, two fumble recoveries, and returned one fumble for a touchdown. At 6-1, 220lbs, Bolton is a little on the smaller side to play the position, but he had a promising 2019 training camp and preseason before suffering an ACL tear. He has a 7.04 RAS.

So with this core of Kirksey, Burks, Summers, and Bolton, is it possible the Packers can get increased production out of the inside linebacker position? Sure it is. But we’re also talking about a position group made up of two former third round picks, a seventh round pick, and an undrafted free agent.

In the 2019 Draft, the two inside linebackers coveted by Packers fans were Devin White and Devin Bush. White went to Tampa Bay at the fifth overall pick, and the Steelers traded up to No. 10 to select Bush. What did that tell us? If you want a sure-thing at inside linebacker, it’s going to be an investment.

At the time, the Packers had Martinez as the full-time starter and were hoping for a second-year jump from Burks, so missing on White and Bush didn’t feel as significant in the moment.

Now, as we approach the 2020 Draft, there are two names once again at inside linebacker that many (including myself) are smitten with, Patrick Queen out of LSU and Kenneth Murray out of Oklahoma.

In his 2019, championship season with LSU, the 6-1, 227lb Patrick Queen started 15 games, posted 85 total tackles with 12 tackles for loss, had three sacks, one interception, two passes defensed, and one fumble recovery. He also has a 8.0 RAS.

For Oklahoma in 2019, Kenneth Murray started 14 games, had 102 total tackles with 17 for loss, had four sacks, and four passes defensed. At 6-2, 234lbs, Murray is built more like a traditional inside linebacker, and he posted an elite RAS of 9.89.

Don’t let the numbers on paper fool you, as that was part of the exercise here. College stats can be deceptive. The tape needs to tell the story, and the tape says Murray and Queen are going to be studs in the NFL. What did the tape say for someone like Oren Burks? Well, that he had explosive athleticism and potential, but he was still a raw prospect that needed time to develop at the position. Now entering his third year with the Packers, his developmental window is closing quickly.

I want to go on record here and say I’m as big a Christian Kirksey fan as they come. My husband is a Browns fan, people. I’ve done my research. The signing made sense, the investment made sense. The price tag even made sense. If he can stay healthy, he will be a productive presence on the field and a phenomenal locker room leader. But is he a massive upgrade over the last four seasons? Not entirely. Kirksey, Burks, and Bolton all have injury concerns at this point, and Summers didn’t take a defensive snap the entire 2019 season.

While the upside is there for all four players, it might also be time for Gutekunst to spend big at the inside linebacker position. This defense is close, and adding a player like Queen or Murray to shore up the front seven would go a long way both addressing the issues with coverage in the middle of the field, and stopping the run. There are only so many high value picks in the draft, and while you can find starters in any round, rather than gamble on another day two or day three developmental prospect, it makes sense to make a long-term investment in the middle of the defense.

Like I mentioned before, we’re still trying to figure out Gutekunst’s tendencies entering his third draft as GM, but we know he attacks areas of weakness on his roster, just like he did at the edge rushing position in 2019. Might he do the same at inside linebacker in 2020?

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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for the Pack-A-Day Podcast and Pack's What She Said. Find her on Twitter at @MaggieJLoney.

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Green Bay Packers

Comments (94)

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splitpea1

April 14, 2020 at 12:22 pm

Ah, a kindred spirit...smitten by the same players. If the opportunity is there to take either one of these guys, then the Packers should do it. We haven't had a real impact player at this position for a long time. If they're both out of reach or gone by the time the Packers make their first pick, they should probably take the best WR available or trade down.

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