Inside & Out, on 'O' & 'D', Passing Game Trending Up

Another deep dive into the stats, combined with offseason changes, hint that the Packers could be improved in 2017. 

If you’ve read anything that I’ve recently written, then you’d know I’ve been cruising on the Football Outsiders highway. That may change soon as the page turns to training camp and the upcoming season—rather than a look back at 2016. But the work over at FO provides some of the best examples out there of deep statistical dives, ultimately painting a clearer picture of who the team was and where they’re going. 
 
The stories provided this week by FO’s Scott Kacsmar focus on deep analytics of which parts of the field passing games found success—or failure. Some of the findings seem in-line with the popular imagination regarding Green Bay on offense and defense. 
 
There were surprises, too. 
 
Would you ever have guessed that defending tight ends in the slot was a strength of Packers in 2016? While this is a bit of a nit-picky statistic—only about 40 percent of overall passes to tight ends came with the target lined up in the slot, as opposed to over half in the traditional in-line position—it’s nevertheless positive. Only four teams faced more passing attempts to tight ends in the slot—Cincinnati, Atlanta, Denver and Dallas—and only Pittsburgh and New England had a better DVOA.
 
The finding has extra relevance when comparing the team’s numbers defending wide and slot targets with specific positions, like tight end vs. wide receiver. 
 
Overall, Green Bay defended against 255 passes in the slot, compared to 166 passes thrown wide. Arizona, Atlanta, and the New York Giants are the only teams that faced more slot passes. Arizona, most likely, because they constantly blitzed, so the slot receivers were hot reads. Atlanta, most likely, because they often played with a lead and their outside coverage graded second-based in the league based on DVOA. The Giants faced a lot of slot passes because their outside coverage was far and away the best in the league. 
 
So, Green Bay got picked on more in the slot—but it was wide receivers who did the damage, not tight ends. Against wide receivers lined up in the slot, Green Bay ranked 29th in the league in DVOA—only a smidgen better than ranking 26th in defending passes to the outside. 
 
(If there was a breakdown of deep passing attempts to the right side of the field, the Packers would undoubtedly rank dead last.)
 
It’s been reasoned several times that Green Bay’s secondary woes last year can be largely attributed to key (and ongoing) injuries. By adding Davon House and drafting Kevin King, the team has more firepower on the edges. By moving Damarious Randall to the slot—where he has performed considerably better and is a much better athletic fit—there’s at least hope that the Packers could take steps forward in 2017. Forgotten man Quinten Rollins is a more natural fit in the slot as well, and the wildcard is where (and how often) the Packers will use uber-athletic rookie Josh Jones. 
 
Looking further at Kacsmar’s analysis, and flipping to the offensive side of the ball, there are other reasons to be excited about the Packers’ 2017 season. 
 
Using their DYAR (Defense-adjust Yards Above Replacement) statistic, Davante Adams was a beast lined up wide, ranking even ahead of the great Julio Jones. With the high volume of passes thrown his way, expect Adams’ primary role to continue to be that of boundary receiver. 
 
Next, Jordy Nelson should really take a bow. No matter where he was lined up, he was simply one of the best in the league. His DYAR of 213 from the slot ranks fifth-best and his 169 outside was good for seventh-best. These figures should confirm Nelson’s status not as a player necessarily transitioning inside, but rather a weapon who must be tactfully deployed all over the field. 
 
At tight end, Martellus Bennett was elite when used traditionally as an in-line target. He’ll also represent a significant upgrade as a blocker, so expect to see Bennett playing tight to the offensive line. 
 
And what about Ty Montgomery? It’s a small sample size—just 11 total passes in the slot, including completed and incomplete, went his way—but his DYAR ranks sixth among running backs and his DVOA ranks fifth. The added value of being able to motion him wide or to the slot is something many teams don’t possess. 
 
These takeaways signal that certain players will have defined roles, but like in Jordy’s case that role should mean moving around. If the Packers can develop out of their deep pool of receivers a few more weapons for inside and out, they have the potential to be devastatingly effective. 
 
When it comes to the passing game, the Packers are well positioned to make strides on both sides of the ball this season. 
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Comments (8)

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Johnblood27's picture

July 21, 2017 at 01:14 pm

Thanks for bringing the FO data to light.

The low number of targets for Monty seemingly reflects a MM - EB philosophy, however it could be an attempt to not overload the mid-season transition Monty took on.

I would love to see MM-EB look at the scheme that was developed for Marshall Faulk in StL and IND. Monty seems to be a larger target with very good elusiveness and great hands. I would love to see the ball in his hands on pass plays a lot more, even at the expense of dipping down to the sub-40% level of running plays

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Handsback's picture

July 21, 2017 at 03:33 pm

Monty wasn't used that much as a receiving weapon once he went to the RB position. This year the offense will be different. Two TEs and 2-WRs, with Monty, will push the defense to cover w/ extra DBs and allow a very solid running game. Once they get that handle, Green Bay's offense will throw some short quick passes to Bennett, Monty, Kendrick and just wait until a DB get out of position against Nelson and Rodgers hits him with a 40 yard bomb.
As Vic would say it's players not scheme, and with everyone healthy......those players are ready. The Packer's defense...I don't know. Let's see after the first exhibition game.

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NickPerry's picture

July 22, 2017 at 08:09 am

.

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Packer_Fan's picture

July 22, 2017 at 09:41 am

So we have non-experts coming up a whole bunch of ways to use all the Pack's weapons. And I am one if them. But I especially like the idea of using Monty like Marshall Falk. I hope MM opens up the playbook to continually to keep the defenses on their heels. If this happens, this season will be fun to watch!

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Packer_Fan's picture

July 22, 2017 at 09:41 am

So we have non-experts coming up a whole bunch of ways to use all the Pack's weapons. And I am one if them. But I especially like the idea of using Monty like Marshall Falk. I hope MM opens up the playbook to continually to keep the defenses on their heels. If this happens, this season will be fun to watch!

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Packer_Fan's picture

July 22, 2017 at 09:42 am

So we have non-experts coming up a whole bunch of ways to use all the Pack's weapons. And I am one if them. But I especially like the idea of using Monty like Marshall Falk. I hope MM opens up the playbook to continually to keep the defenses on their heels. If this happens, this season will be fun to watch!

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JohnnyLogan's picture

July 22, 2017 at 11:10 am

You can say that again.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 22, 2017 at 11:46 am

We should move Nelson around to take advantage of match-ups, but otherwise he needs to play outside unless and until we have a viable replacement for him. I'd much rather have the 7th best outside WR than the 5th best slot WR on the field.

The data suggests what we knew in many ways. Hyde could handle TEs and RBs operating from the slot because they tend to be slower, but was a complete liability against WRs. Randall/Jones figures to be a big upgrade there.

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