In Sports Illustrated, Andrew Brandt Argues the Time Isn't Right for a Rodgers Extension
Former Packers exec Andrew Brandt discusses the ongoing issue of Aaron Rodgers' contract extension.
By TimBackes
We're just a couple days away from having brand new, daily Packers news once again. But before camp begins, there's one story that's been on Packers fans' minds all offseason. When will Aaron Rodgers get a contract extension?
Rodgers is still locked up through the end of the 2019 season, so there isn't an immediate need to get a deal done, but the general thought is the sooner the better, especially given the rate with which quarterback contracts continue to increase.
However, former Packer executive turned football analyst Andrew Brandt, who negotiated Rodgers' first NFL contract, is of a different mind.
Whether you agree with his take or not, it's definitely a piece worth reading for Packer fans. Not only does Brandt not think the Packers will reach a deal before the season starts, but he also doesn't think they should.
There is too much in Brandt's excellent analysis to cover here without basically repeating everything he says, so I'd basically urge you to read the article yourselves and provide your thoughts.
Personally, I think Brandt absolutely has a point from a business perspective. But as a fan, every day that Rodgers doesn't have a new deal is a deal closer to his current contract expiring. While I'm certainly not near the point of concern yet, I'd certainly like to see something get done before this NFL season comes to a close.
And an unrelated note...
Completely unrelated to Rodgers' contract, I'd like to remind all CHTV readers to take part in this Google survey about your expectations for the 2018 Packers. I'll be revealing the results on Thursday, the day camp opens, and analyzing what fans think of the team this year.
We've already had a couple hundred people participate, but more data is always good to have!
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Tim Backes is a lifelong Packer fan and a contributor to CheeseheadTV. Follow him on Twitter @timbackes for his Packer takes, random musings and Untappd beer check-ins.
__________________________
Comments (30)
TheVOR
July 24, 2018 at 07:00 pm
Brandt is dead on, this is not the time to extend Rodgers. Lets spend the money on a few more UFA's on 1 year deals, stack the deck, win a SB, then see the money freed up from Matthews and Cobbs deals evaporating.. Plus we could franchise him for a few more years after that. It's not necessary right now.
Samson
July 24, 2018 at 08:22 pm
I can't believe that someone posting on CHTV thinks very similar to myself. ---Most here are management and "homer" posters who think the Pack should always be cow-towing to players' demands even if it may decimate the immediate returns of the current Pack Season.
As much as I like AR & believe he has been the team for too many years, he's under contract. ---- Let him prove in season 2018 that he can take a hit and stay healthy and lead the Pack to the playoffs again ---- then negotiate a new contract.
It's time to make this whole Packer effort a "TEAM" effort, not just the QB.
4thand10
July 25, 2018 at 12:30 am
As much as I don’t Agree on some small stuff, this makes sense. Be even more clearer if another FA jumps in the mIx before this is all said and done.
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 10:49 am
How could most here be "Management Homers" but still believe the Packers should be kow-towing to players' demands? You seem to be burning both ends of that candle.
Outside of that, I agree there's no rush to extend Rodgers. Plenty of time on the clock.
Lare
July 24, 2018 at 07:24 pm
I disagree with Brandt's assertion that a Rodgers contract extension benefits the Packers more than Rodgers. Doing it now puts an extra $13-15 million per year in Rodgers pocket (on top of the $20 million per year he is already making), a good portion of which is probably guaranteed even if he gets injured.
I say wait a year or two before redoing Rodgers contract. And if his demands are too high then, franchise him for another year or two while grooming his replacement.
Bearmeat
July 24, 2018 at 07:54 pm
From the Packers point of view, the only reason to extend Rodgers would be to save yourself money down the line. The Packers should play hardball, but they need to do so gently. They don't want to tick off ARod. The cap percentage, player opt out stuff is just not likely. Green Bay can control ARod until he's 39, and only the last year, mayyybe the last two, under the franchise tag would be a poor use of salary cap for a player of his caliber at his position.
From Rodgers point of view, the only reasons to extend now would be to obtain (yet more) financial security (as if he needs it), or to be (temporarily) the highest paid football player in the world - so for his ego. Dumb reasons.
Bottom line: If news of a contract extension happens this week, it'll be great news for the Packers salary cap long term.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 25, 2018 at 12:54 am
I agree pretty much. If the contract keeps the two years currently on the contract and adds at least 4 more years with a fairly standard structure, then yes (arguably) it might be good for GB's salary cap, long-term.
I don't understand why people are so afraid of the franchise tags. On the first tag, if he is still the best QB in the NFL AR would by definition be both underpaid and not the highest paid QB in the NFL. That is a certainty. 120% of the current franchise tag would be $27.83M. AR is certainly worth that, and there is no reason not to believe that AR would be worth 120% of the franchise tag for the 2021 season.
All this (both extending and having AR play out the contract) depends on how long AR continues to be the best, or at least a top tier QB. And nobody knows that answer for sure.
Bearmeat
July 25, 2018 at 04:31 pm
LOL! Bearmeat's Phantom Downvoter Strikes Again!!!
TarynsEyes
July 24, 2018 at 08:31 pm
Matthews gone,,salary cap plus.
Cobb gone possibly..salary cap plus
Salary cap increase...plus
Two 1st rd picks along with players stepping up this year makes it easier to get Rodgers done right next off season.
Nice mix of young vets, 2nd year guys and great draft selection position ='s possible awesome and a young experienced team to strongly aid Rodgers for his last 4-5.
Samson
July 24, 2018 at 08:46 pm
I hope you are Gute with an alias.
You have a plan that may actually lead to another SB appearance for AR and the Pack.
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 10:53 am
Not only can I understand this post, but I agree with you 100%.
Coincidence. or something more? (cue spooky time-life books "mysteries of the unknown" music)
mamasboy
July 24, 2018 at 08:52 pm
Who cares. Rogers isn't the type to be a distraction or trouble maker. People who actually worry about his contract situation are wasting their time.
Bure9620
July 24, 2018 at 09:10 pm
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/07/24/aaron-rodgers-green-bay-packers-contra...
Here is the article, very good perspective and explanation of real "new" money. I was skeptical anyway, now I think there will bo no real push either way till April.
bsminh63
July 24, 2018 at 09:34 pm
http://www.drbachsyminh.com/hut-mo-aqualipo-plus-xong-co-beo-lai-khong/ Hút mỡ bụng Aqualipo Plus
http://www.drbachsyminh.com/dich-vu/nang-nguc-noi-soi-4d/ Nâng Ngực Nội Soi 4D
http://www.drbachsyminh.com/dich-vu/nang-mui-thai-lan/ Nâng mũi Thái Lan
Since'61
July 24, 2018 at 10:25 pm
Brandt's article provides an excellent take on Rodger's current contract extension. Waiting until after the 2018 season could work out for the best for Rodgers and the Packers. If Rodgers has an MVP type of season it will likely mean that the Packers will have a great regular season, maybe 12+ plus wins and home field advantage for a deep playoff and Super Bowl run, which will be great for the Packers, while simultaneously justifying an even larger contract for Rodgers.
If Cobb and CM3 are released combined with the cap increase the Packers will have plenty of money to sign Rodgers to a big deal including plenty of new money for Rodgers. The flaw in this scenario is that the more leverage Rodgers accrues the more $$$ (cap space) he will command. While he will deserve whatever he gets it could become problematic for signing other FAs. Yet another big test for Gute early in his GM career.
No doubt that Rodgers is aware of this and based on that I'm guessing Rodgers is in no hurry to get a deal done until 2018 is over. We'll see. Thanks, Since '61
Bure9620
July 25, 2018 at 02:17 am
I agree, once Cobb and CMIII are off the books, likely along with HHCD, Wilkerson and Kendricks, that is roughly an $37 million in cap room, plus the $8 mil in dead money we are carrying, That's $45 million to play with after this year to extend Rodgers.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 25, 2018 at 02:43 am
Brandt's article should be read in this context: he is an advocate for player breakthroughs in negotiating better contracts for players. ["As ... an advocate for breakthroughs on the player side on the business of the NFL...."]
Brandt sounds a lot like a national union discouraging a local union from approving a local contract that is in the local's best interest because it sets a precedent nation-wide. The article suggests that it makes no difference to AR whether he signs an extension in July of 2018 or in July of 2019. How the heck does he know that? Only AR knows how much money he has in the bank and how much he wants to have in the bank when he retires. Not signing an extension puts at risk $50M to $125M for AR. Maybe AR thinks he already has enough money in the bank.
I find putting in an escalator for AR if Favre retired odd. Did GB attempt to pay AR less because he wasn't expected to play much? [QB Jason Campbell's contract was similar to AR's, and Campbell started 7 games as a rookie and 52 of 64 possible games on his rookie contract. Campbell was drafted 25th in 2005, one slot behind AR.] A simple incentive based on snaps played would have done much the same thing. Even if the Management Council discouraged the Favre retirement language, that's not dispositive. The commissioner would have to disapprove, and his disapproval is subject to appeal to the system arbitrator.
An escalator that keeps AR the highest paid QB in the NFL - if legal - would be suicidal for the team. If it had been in effect for 2018, and if based on cap numbers, then AR's cap number would be $37M plus a dollar. That would put a crimp in GB's FA. GB would be at the mercy of the dumbest GM, or one with the most cap space, every year. Cash as the basis is out of the question, and AAV leaves GB at the mercy of dumb GMs.
It appears to me that Mr. Brandt wants AR to force breakthroughs in contract structure without giving sufficient consideration as to whether it is in AR's best interests (on a micro level) do to so, very little consideration to the team's interest or even why a team would do it, and none at all to the NFL as a whole.
Since'61
July 25, 2018 at 08:17 am
TGR - I think that your comments are spot on. I have posted previously that the Packers should get ARs contract done sooner rather than later. But the Packers can only offer a contract, Rodgers does not have to sign it.
As Mr. Brandt points out Rodgers could try to gain more leverage by waiting until after the 2018 season. If AR has a big season and hopefully an SB season that could put him in the "proverbial drivers seat". If at that point the Packers play hard ball with AR they run the risk of pissing him off big time.
Yes, the Packer still have him under contract for 2019 and could franchise him for '20 and '21 but do you really want AR unhappy for potentially 3 seasons?
To me the Packers should make the best offer they can to Rodgers before the 2018 season ends, especially if he is having an MVP type of season.
What are your thoughts on how the Packers should approach this?
Thanks, Since '61
zeke
July 25, 2018 at 01:37 pm
An "unhappy A-Rod" isn't really a problem, IMO. A "holding out" A-Rod might be. It does seem that the Packers have all of the leverage right now, and will for the next couple of years. Can't help but feel that this isn't going to end well, but I also felt that David Whitehurst never got a fair shot. YMMV.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 25, 2018 at 11:08 pm
Since '61, I think GB should make a fair, even generous offer NOW and essentially keep it on the table. The reason is that AR's current contract isn't fair. True, life isn't always fair. Businesses aren't always fair to their employees. However, I think a smart business treats its top performers fairly. Being cynical for a moment, a business can perhaps play things harder regarding employees who are utterly replaceable or who at least can be replaced with moderate trial and error.
The price of not being fair is an unhappy AR. If he can't reasonably be made happy, so be it, perhaps. I assume that AR knows Gute, Ball, and Murphy and they know him. The scenarios have a lot of drama. Sure, AR has some ego. But he also doesn't want to smudge his legacy with a holdout or sub-par play. The players know something about each other.
If AR wants to make a breakthrough in contract structure, then he needs to pay the price, which is playing without guaranteed money for two years and perhaps 1 or 2 franchise tag years. Just rolling one-year guarantees, essentially.
Since'61
July 26, 2018 at 06:44 am
TGR - thanks for taking the time to respond. Your reasoning and mine is essentially the same. The sooner the Packers can get this done the better.
You are correct that smart businesses treat their top performers fairly and they make sure they are happy. I'm confident that the Packers management is aware of this as well.
You make a good point about legacy for Rodgers and I doubt that he would go the holdout route unless the Packers fail to make a reasonable offer. I also don't think that he wants to do one year at a time with rolling guarantees. I think he is looking for the security of a long term deal.
The variable here is Rodgers agent and what type of advice he is giving to Rodgers. I believe the longer this goes on the more leverage shifts to Rodgers especially if he has a big season in 2018. Thanks, Since '61
Thegreatreynoldo
July 26, 2018 at 10:44 pm
2 seasons in the NFL is a long time. 3 seasons is an eternity. 4 seasons can best be described in geological time frames. Sure, the leverage shifts over time towards AR, assuming he is still upright and elite, which is part of the countervailing leverage, along with security/guaranteed money. If AR gets hit by a bus tomorrow, GB will send him a check for his per diem ($1,800 per week). If AR is on the roster for week one, his $20M base salary in 2018 becomes guaranteed.
I don't think one season shifts all that much leverage to AR even if it's an MVP season, or a Super Bowl appearance/win, not enough for AR to be able to force a player breakthrough in contract structure. Big money, yes. Most or all guaranteed over 2, 3, or 4 years, probably. Player only opt-outs, guaranteed highest paid player, no, and probably not ever. I could be wrong. Maybe the 2022 version of AR will be almost as good as the 2018 version, and maybe GB is willing to bet big on it.
I think we pretty much agree in principle.
Handsback
July 25, 2018 at 07:41 am
Giving Rodgers a new contract now isn't in Green Bay's best interest. In fact it seems the only reason to do it is for Rodger's ego. Can't have him paid as a third tier QB when he's certainly one of the best. Next year should be the year, and I'm sure he will be back on top with a financial win-fall. Since they will win the Super Bowl this season.
Tundraboy
July 25, 2018 at 09:38 am
Cat's out of the bag already. Too many lesser QBs getting absurd contracts. Rodgers has a huge ego,and good thing for us, an even bigger chip on his shoulder. I see him playing lights out this year,and a new contract at some point this season.
Since'61
July 25, 2018 at 10:26 am
Tundra - I think that you are correct and I certainly hope so for the lights out piece of your post. Thanks, Since ‘61
Tundraboy
July 25, 2018 at 01:31 pm
And I think the D is going to play with a lot more fire,further rejuvenating Arod.
Tundraboy
July 25, 2018 at 01:37 pm
Thanks Since '61. I don't think I can think of another thing that I would want to be more right on this year. God I hope so.
followet
July 25, 2018 at 11:32 am
I have an idea no new contract for A.R. this year. We magnanimously offer him a bonus of 10 million dollars if he gets the team a win in the superbowl 9million if we lose in the superbowl 8 if we get to the NFC championship 6 million if we get to the second round 4 million if we win the NFC 3 million if we make it as a wild card. and if we don't make the playoffs thank you for another year. This will not be a contract as contracts go. Just a piece of paper telling A rod what the team will do. He will be the highest paid QB if he wins the super bowl
LambeauPlain
July 25, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Doing a K renewal now would benefit the Pack because every day that goes by increases Aaron’s future “take” that will exceed what is lost between now and the next signing.
Two years from now elite QBs will be getting staggering contracts the salary cap will not keep up with.
And who knows...maybe Kizer surprises and begins the grooming process to be the replacement. And if he is, no way you could afford to sign both men to new contracts.
Either way, #12 is going to be the richest man to play the game...and he knows it.
Pack88
July 25, 2018 at 06:53 pm
I don't really have an opinion on whether the Packers should pay Rodgers now or not. I suspect the real answer lies in does #12 want to be paid in 18 or not. Rodgers has the desire to play till 40 but he knows this is his last visit to the GB well and I suspect how he feels about the situation will drive the train. I surmise Rodgers has every NFL dollar he has ever been paid so that is quite a pile of cash. He is proud, thinskinned and very sure of himself. Should he have a paramount desire to be paid in 18 all he has to do is not play. Fine him whoo cares and we'll see how many tailgate tourists show up for the 4-12 Packers and all that revenue doesn't roll in i 19 management will not lok too smart then. So I am not being a contrarian but a realist. Just look at Hollywood you see it every day and there are plenty of understudys there. Can you imagine watchng an entire season of Brett Hundly hitting receivers in the ankles ar throwing stupid picks I can't.