The best way to think about getting under the salary cap is to envision three scenarios: 1) Rodgers returns with an extension, so the Packers try to keep as many pieces as they can; 2) Rodgers is traded but the Front Office wants to field a competitive team in 2022; 3) Rodgers is traded and the Front Office is willing to lose a lot in 2022, opting instead to gain draft picks and rip the bandaids off.

The Packers need to generate about $53.5M including designating ERFAs but not tendering Lazard or tagging anyone else.  OTC indicates $50.7M but the Packers are almost certain to extend qualified offers to their ERFAs. The Packers will need another $10M or so for the practice squad, draft picks, 52nd/53rd contracts, and an in-season kitty to use for normal operations.  Since the team will not need that $10M until September, I would exclude that normally but I have listed every player they can wring cap savings out of in the table below while not leaving much meat on the bone.  They will not be able to generate more very easily.

Here is scenario 1: Rodgers returns.

Extension A is an extension for well less than the maximum that can be generated.  Extension B is one that is more extreme.  The next column is the amount generated if the player is released.  The next column is the amount of cap relief I personally selected in each case.  The next column is for the name of each player.  At the bottom of the table I have inserted players the Packers might want back.  The column to the right of the players' names is their estimated first year cap number under a new deal and the next is a tag or tender amount if applicable, or an AAV if no tag or tender is applicable.

The adjustment row is for the four players I decided to outright release who were under contract for 2022 (so anyone voiding out does not count).  Since they were released, a cheaper player probably making the minimum of $705K will replace them (but when the ERFAs are designated that number will jump to about $825K.  So, I think an adjustment of 4 times $825K, or $3.3M, is proper.  That has to be subtracted from the amount available to spend.

Similarly, players not now on the roster who are re-signed will have an adjustment in a positive direction.  If Adams has a $10M cap number, the 51st player now making $825K will drop off of the top 51, so the net for signing Adams would be $10 - $825K or $9.175M.  Someone like Lancaster whose first year cap number might be around $1.4M actually will only reduce cap space under the Rule of 51 by $1.4M minus $825K, or $575K.  

In my last two articles I gave some contract estimates for some of the players who are UFAs and RFAs, including estimates by Spotrac and the value of their play in 2021 according to overthecap.  I found this article by Pro Football Focus as to value of the top 200 free agents, which includes several of the Packers' players in question. 

Adams:  It will be a lot.  A $14M first-year cap number is more reasonable....

Campbell: 2 years, $18M, or $9M AAV with $11M guaranteed, per PFF estimate.  Normally I would use half or 60% of the AAV as a working number for a first-year cap number, but the Packers could use 3 void years if Campbell doesn't get a 4-year deal somewhere.  In the void year scenario, I would envision their usual 30% of total value as a signing bonus (SB), so perhaps $6M, for a $1.2M proration plus a minimum base of $1.12M for a cap number of $2.32M, but that does not get even his AAV to Campbell in cash in year one.  So, $8M bonus plus the minimum for a $2.72M cap number.  No doubt the Packers would like a workout and game active bonus, but those can't be prorated, so I estimated about $3M.  This would be an extreme structure so the player needs to pan out for the Packers.  Indeed, most of the contracts below are extreme but are mostly for lesser amounts at least.

Valdes-Scantling: 3 years, $25M ($8.33M AAV), with $16M guaranteed, per PFF.  Valdes-Scantling has only earned $4.2M in his career so far, with half of that or so going to taxes and agent's commissions.  I think it is harder to do some creative accounting with him.  I will use a $4M first year cap number.

Rasul Douglas:  3 years, $20.25M ($6.75M AAV), with $13.25M guaranteed per PFF.  That estimate has a lower AAV than I had envisioned in my previous article while being far more more generous with guaranteed money.  Based on $20M total value, the Packers use around a $6M SB for most players (in most years).  $1.2M proration plus minimum base is about $2.2M, plus $500K in workout and game active bonuses would be $2.7M.  That is my guess for purposes of this article, but I actually was thinking more along $8M AAV and a $4M first year cap number.

Tonyan: 1 year, $5.5M with $3.75M guaranteed per PFF.  Tonyan suffered a torn ACL in week 8.  Odds are he starts on the PUP and misses 6 weeks.  That is too much given the numbers above.  The Packers would have to give him a $4M SB with 4 void years for a $0.8M proration and a minumum base, which would come out to about $1.9M in 2022.  The team could use incentives since he had only 204 receiving yards and 2 TDs or they could have some kind of club option for 2023: otherwise, I don't see this as worth the risk.

Dennis Kelly: 1 year, $1.5M, with $500K guaranteedper PFF.  OTC listed the value of his play at over $5M but here is another outlet suggesting that the NFL does not pay players like Kelly.  I never understood how the Packers signed Kelly for so little last year (unless it was injury-related), so I am going to punt here and just use PFF's number.

King: As previously outlined, if King is extended, his $3.0M dead money would not hit the cap.  Instead, just his proration for 2022 ($750K) plus whatever they paid him.  Cap relief can be gained by retaining the player.  [See below, though.]

The rest mostly will be available for their minimum.  Some might come back on a qualified contract. 

Ken Ingalls in a recent tweet explained that the contracts of Sullivan, King, Tonyan and Campbell void on February 21s at midnight.  Apparently the league offices are not open on Sunday so the Packers would have had to get the paperwork for extensions to the NFL on Saturday (yesterday) in order to avoid their dead money hits from immediately hitting the salary cap.  If there is no news today or Monday, that probably means no extensions were reached.  Dead money amounts are $3M for King, $1.88M for Tonyan, $970K for Sullivan and $808K for Campbell.

The Packers need to know if Rodgers is returning on an extension.  I have them getting $20M in cap savings before the new league due to an extension, leaving them with almost $27M to spend.  It would be difficult to tag Davante Adams if that is all the space they have. 

If Rodgers is traded, the table shows the Packers with under $7M in which case they would be legally unable to tag Adams.  However, I included $10M for a piggy bank, signing draft picks and the 52nd and 53rd contracts.  That space would not be used until May/June and not until September, so at the time when the tag has to be made, the Packers would have almost $17M.  If they wanted to tag Adams, they could generate the necessary space by releasing Preston Smith or just dig a little deeper on some of these extensions. It would be very tight and Adams would know that time is not on the side of the team. 

Right now, we are operating under the assumption that Rodgers will be extended.  This article deals with that scenario.  I will look at scenarios 2 and 3 at a later date.

Time for you readers to solve the puzzle!