Green and Bold: Which Packers Free Agent Signing Will Have Biggest Impact?

Having some firepower at tight end this season will be a huge boon to the Green Bay Packers offense, but it's very likely that the free-agent addition that will have the biggest impact on the field this season is neither Martellus Bennett nor Lance Kendricks, but cornerback Davon House. 

Having some firepower at tight end this season will be a huge boon to the Green Bay Packers offense, but it's very likely that the free-agent addition that will have the biggest impact on the field this season is neither Martellus Bennett nor Lance Kendricks, but cornerback Davon House. 

Now, House has his doubters, and that's fine.

Eyebrows were raised in 2015 when House, whom the Packers allowed to become a free agent, signed a four-year, $24.5 million contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Free-agency contracts are largely based on future potential, not past production, but even so, upwards of $6 million a year for a cornerback who, at that point, had never started more than five games in any of his four seasons in the league was a lot. 

It wasn't necessarily because House didn't perform within the parameters of his contract that the Jaguars released him just two seasons into his four-year deal. The veteran cornerback, starting 15 games in 2015, led the team in interceptions (four) and passes defensed (23). The latter set a single-season franchise record.

House only started four games in his second season with the Jaguars despite being healthy in all 16. However, the Jaguars' also having drafted Jalen Ramsey in the 2016 NFL Draft is not a coincidence there. 

Packers Nation seems to be divided, with a few exceptions, into those who jumped when House's name appeared on the free-agent market and those who thought the Packers would do better to leave House in the past. 

But in reality, the team finds itself in an extremely beneficial situation with House. The Packers signed the corner to a one-year, $2.8 million contract to provide a veteran presence in a group that has gotten extremely young with the departure of Sam Shields. 

House may not even earn starting snaps as he competes in training camp with third-year players Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins and rookie Kevin King. But now, the cornerbacks group has a player who can act as another coach on the field and in the locker room, which House has already begun doing. According to Packers.com's Wes Hodkiewicz, House has already been helping the young corners study at the team hotel. 

Thus, even if House loses out on snaps to those same young players, perhaps their play on the field improves because of his leadership and influence. That's an impact that should be largely noticeable in a secondary that so obviously struggled in 2016. 

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Comments (35)

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Hematite's picture

June 07, 2017 at 06:27 am

If we're depending on House to have a huge impact on this defense I think we will be sorely disappointed.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 06:44 am

As you may have noticed, DThomas, in the comments over the last few days I made my attempt at analyzing the stats of our OLBs in terms of pressures/snap, really snaps/pressure. I found some data issues. Different sites produce some wildly differing numbers for total pressures, hurries, whatever it is called. First, let's reconsider Mike Daniels' numbers.

482 pass rush attempts has to include postseason. The sporting charts stats only include regular season games. Daniels played 664 regular season snaps: if 482 were pass rushing, that would be a 72% pass and 28% run scenario. I doubt it. If you take Daniels snaps from FO of 664 and manually add in the playoffs, you get 802 total snaps (McGinn lists Daniels with 803 total snaps). 482 of 802 is 60% pass, 40% run when Daniels was on the field. I can buy that ratio. So, we have to add any pressures, knockdowns and sacks Daniels had in the playoffs to the sporting chart numbers to get pass rush success rate. [As it happens, McGinn in his Rating the Packers series did not assign a pressure to Daniels against NYG or Dallas - sorry, I shredded the article that dealt with the Atlanta debacle.]

McGinn and sportingcharts are close on hurries generally. I'll list sportingchart hurries with McGinn's numbers in parenthesis and NFL sacks in brackets which includes playoffs:

Daniels 20 (20.5) [4], Perry 17 (18) [12], CM3 15 (14.5) [6], Jones 14 (16.5) [1], Peppers 12 (16.5) [8.5], Fackrell 6 (4.5) [2], Elliott ? (3) [1].

The difference is knockdowns. I can't tell if sportingcharts includes knockdowns in their hurries, though by definition a knockdown should qualify as a hurry since you have to be within a step and a half of the QB when the throw is made, that is so close you can't avoid the QB. McGinn assigns KDs: Jones 14, CM3 8, Peppers 7.5, Daniels 7, Perry 6, Elliott 0, Fackrell 0. So add 16.5 hurries to 14 knockdowns to 1 sack for Jones and McGinn arrives at 31.5 pressures, and 32.5 for Peppers as well.

I find it suspicious. Why post a players hurries but hide the more important stat of knockdowns? I can't find any site that lists knockdowns as a separate and discrete stat. Maybe it is behind a pay wall. [I found the link below for a 2010 article that lists knockdowns, hurries and sacks discretely: it is from FO.] And how did TT let our 3rd best pass rusher who played a bunch of snaps with his hand in the dirt leave for $3.5M on a one year deal? Either GB coaches don't agree with McGinn so TT didn't offer much, or Jones took a $2M pay discount to get out of GB.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/2010-hits-and-hurries

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 06:51 am

The above is supposed to be a reply to DThomas in the thread for Ross' article on where will our pass rush come from. Cheesehead just refused to let me post it there. No idea why. Since it took a couple of hours of research, I put it here.

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Since'61's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:09 am

Reynoldo - I appreciate your effort in assembling this information. However, I'm not sure how it applies to this particular article. In any case, good job! Thanks, Since '61

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:16 am

It doesn't, Since '61. Cheesehead wouldn't let me post it where it was supposed to go, and I was darned if I was going to delete it after spending a few hours researching it.

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Since'61's picture

June 07, 2017 at 01:23 pm

Understood. Either way I appreciate your effort on our behalf. Thanks, Since '61

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

June 07, 2017 at 11:16 am

Thanks for your time in researching those numbers, Thegreatreynoldo. I too find it odd if sportingcharts doesn't include knockdowns in hurries. Like you, I view knockdowns as more important than hurries in which the QB isn't touched, because like sacks they can negatively affect the QB's play as the game goes on. It's even stranger if they do include knockdowns and their numbers are that different from others. Here's what I wrote in the other thread: "I wonder why there's such a difference between SportingCharts hurries and sacks total of 34.5 that need to be replaced and McGinn's total pressures attributed to Jones and Peppers of 64. I believe pressures include sacks, knockdowns, and hurries." If we take McGinn's knockdown numbers that you cite and add them to sportingcharts, the difference narrows but there remains a difference of 8: 64 for McGinn vs. 56 for sportingcharts. This isn't a huge deal but I do think it's odd that this and other discrepancies you uncovered exist for people and sites who are attempting to report on the exact same data.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 08, 2017 at 12:36 am

Sacks are an NFL-kept stat. They ought to be the same everywhere. Knockdowns seem fairly objective. Is it the same as QB hits, though? Does the QB have to land on the ground for it to be a QB hit or knockdown? Still, this number should be close everywhere, and if it isn't quite a QB hit/knockdown, it ought to be at least a hurry. Hurries can be very subjective. I am not surprised that there are some discrepancies or differences of opinion in counting those.

GB had 40 sacks (19 games: 2/game or so) +
GB had 60 knockdowns (3/game per McGinn) +
GB had 153 hurries (8/game)
213 pressures on 691 passing attempts by opponents
32.44% pressure rate, on average. I think that's a good #.

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NickPerry's picture

June 07, 2017 at 06:47 am

After watching the Packers offense take off once Cook was healthy and back on the field it's hard to argue anyone else might have a bigger effect on the team than Bennett and perhaps to a lesser degree Kendricks. It was a night and day difference once Cook was back in the line-up. But after watching the CB's struggle last season, after watching Gunter try to defend Beckham, Bryant, and Jones, it might be even tougher to argue it wouldn't be House.

I think House is one of the Packers starting CB's come September and the payoff will be immediate. Until King joins the team from school, House is the Packers best option at CB against guys like that and maybe even after King reports. He immediately gives the Packers a CB who would at least slow down the likes of Bryant and Jones.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:56 am

I absolutely agree on Bennett. And the scary thing is, he's a much better blocker than Cook.

The difference made in replacing Richard Rodgers with Jared Cook was like pulling up anchor and turning the motor on high. I don't recall ever seeing an offense so completely unleashed by simply changing out a tight end...

...which also says a lot about Richard Rodgers.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:08 am

I'm going Jahri Evans: anyone who keeps Don Barclay off the field is my hero.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:13 am

LOL. GB cut Jacob Flores and signed an OT: biggest winner is Don Barclay.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:31 am

Packers desperately need to find a higher-quality player who can back up the interior line positions or Barclay is destined to be on the 53 in September. He makes the game day roster much more flexible, but he's not good. The coaching staff loves him. It makes one wonder...

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Tundraboy's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:43 am

Lmao. Me too.

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Since'61's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:17 am

Agree 100% with that Dobber. Thanks, Since '61

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Handsback's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:24 am

I have doubts that Evans will be the starter after about 4 games. He's a good, not great, pass blocker, but not sure what he has left in the tank.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:32 am

You may very well be right...some people shook their heads at this signing muttering the name "Jeff Saturday". We'll see, but if he's not in the lineup, hopefully it means that someone jumped in and flat-out took the job away from him.

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slit's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:04 pm

Two thumbs up on this.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:12 am

House is the better bet. Bennett might make an already very good offense excellent, but House has more room for upside on defense. While there is no doubt that Bennett starts if healthy, imo there is little doubt of House beating out 2 of Randall, Rollins or King on the boundary. Yeah, I give Gunter zero chance.

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Since'61's picture

June 07, 2017 at 07:26 am

I haven't seen House play very much since he left Green Bay so it's difficult, at least for myself, to assess how much of an impact he will make. I doubt that he can be any worse than any of our CBs were last season once Shields went down, so in that sense he should have a positive impact on the CB position group. We'll find out by Game 2 of the season against Atlanta, since I'm assuming that he will be lined up against Julio Jones. Until then I'm going with Bennett having the biggest impact since he is a legitimate threat down the middle for the Packers and he can block which should help our run game. We haven't had a decent blocking TE in years. Thanks, Since '61

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:02 am

I think Bennett has the biggest impact. He stretches the field and blocks well--a combo we haven't had at TE for ages.

King will be our top CB. He'll have growing pains, but he's just on another level in terms of talent. And Randall could turn improved health into a nice bounceback season.

Will House make a diiference? Sure--a good one. I just don't see him dominating his position like Bennett.

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Handsback's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:21 am

House is going to make an impact. Will he be the leader of the CBs...I don't know. He's had time to see the field as a Packer and in J'ville. He hasn't been a #1 CB, but it doesn't mean he can't be. Will the restoring waters of Green Bay refresh him and push him to be a better player? I don't think so. He'll be good but not the #1 CB.

Bennett would be the second obvious choice as best FA pick-up. He will block like a demon and everyone knows his pass catching ability. My question on him is if he so good...why did BB let him go? I certainly don't know that answer, but all of our hopes are that he will be the Gronk of Green Bay.

My choice for best FA pick-up is Kendricks. He's 6-3 and 250 and runs those seem patterns like a WR. The part that will make him MVP for the team's FA pick-up is his capability to be the H-back. Line him up as a FB, block for Monty, slide him out to run routes and make the defense worry about where he's going. They know where Bennett will be and that is headache enough, but adding Kendricks in either a TE/HB position put added questions and muscle into the offense. His contribution over the season will make Monty a better runner and won't be surprised if he has the 4th most receptions on the team. He's never had a QB throwing to him like AR and AR hasn't had a guy like Kendricks on the team before. At least not as talented.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:43 am

I agree with you and RC (below): Kendricks might be the more productive player of the two. I just don't see Bennett as the deep threat other people make him out to be. He runs fine, but he's no burner. He makes his hay in the 10-yard range (he's only averaged about 10 yd/catch over his career, which seems a little low for someone who is going to stretch the field). I think he's the "move the chains" TE. Kendricks has the athleticism and flexibility (as you note) to give DCs headaches...cover him with a LB and he runs past him. Cover him with a CB and he runs through them. It's the Lance Kendricks of the world that guys like Josh Jones are drafted to handle...

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Tundraboy's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:49 am

Maybe he made some comments about Giselle, Brady..... .

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:24 am

With most of the attention being focused on Bennett and House as the top signings, the guy who I think will add a ton of help and is being slightly overlooked is Kendricks.

The reason why I think Kendricks will have a bigger impact over Bennett is because essentially Bennett replaces Cook. I expect Bennett to be really good, but we should see similar production from Bennett to what Cook gave us last year.
Kendricks however adds a whole new dimension to the offense, that we simply haven't had. Kendricks will give McCarthy the ability to be really creative in how he calls the offense.

Kendricks much like Cook when he was with the Rams never had a great QB to play with or any great WR's around him.
Now Kendricks will be surrounded with a really good WR group, another great TE and the best QB in the league.

The offense was night and day better last year when they had Cook in the offense compared to when he wasn't.
This year they have 2 legit weapons at TE and I think Kendricks will benefit the most.

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 03:01 pm

First time I have seen someone getting a .5 like/dislike...

I guess at least someone didn't fully dislike what I said.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 04:30 pm

I agree with Dobber - Jahri Evans on O and Ricky Jean Francois on D. He will make solid run D.

I'm not sure about House. I hope all of you who predict he will play on very high level are right...

Thanks.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 08:44 am

I just hope that House plays at a higher level than what we saw out of the CBs last fall. If he plays at the level he played in 2015 for Jax, I'll be very happy.

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Lphill's picture

June 07, 2017 at 09:12 am

The Packers will be better with House ,if Randall and Rollins show improvement then the secondary will be better off this season.

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Curt's picture

June 07, 2017 at 10:02 am

Just a reminder on the Saturday vs Evans comparisons. Saturday was 37 or so when signed. Evans is only 33 - should have a few years left!

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MarkinMadison's picture

June 07, 2017 at 10:45 am

My gut reaction was to think about Saturday too, but really, Evans had a nice year last year. He has been pretty healthy throughout his career. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he misses fewer games this year than Tretter, Lang or Sitton. I don't see anyone currently on this roster pushing him out of the starting lineup this year.

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MarkinMadison's picture

June 07, 2017 at 10:17 am

BB is very good at getting rid of players before they go into decline. Not saying Bennett won't have a good year, but I think there is a reason the Packers still went out and got Kendricks. We may find out that Bennett is more effective if he can rotate off the field at times.

House may not be a long-term solution for anything, but he is a great insurance policy. He is good enough to start on the outside. He is experienced enough that you know what you are going to get. He is hungry enough that you know you are going to get his best. And if he is as good as the Jaguars thought he was a few years ago, then he is still young enough to bother signing to a long-term deal.

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dobber's picture

June 07, 2017 at 10:22 am

Summed up very nicely...

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Packer_Fan's picture

June 07, 2017 at 10:54 am

Best free agent signing: Bennett and Kendricks. The offense is going to be difficult to stop. Their presence will change how the offense runs. That is making an impact. House is providing comfort to the CB's. Just a good DB you can count on . King will be the one to watch to make a big impact.

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Dzehren's picture

June 08, 2017 at 12:30 pm

Martellus Bennett simple answer

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