Green and Bold: Goodbye B.J. Raji?

Some people have differing opinions on which defensive lineman the Packers should have re-signed. Some think that ultimately Green Bay may keep both Raji & Guion.

B.J. Raji is uncertain about his future with the Packers after Letroy Guion's new deal.

B.J. Raji is uncertain about his future with the Packers after Letroy Guion's new deal.

"There can be only one." No, this isn't Highlander, but the principle may still well apply to defensive linemen Letroy Guion and B.J. Raji, both of whom finished the 2015 season on expiring one-year contracts with the Packers.

Guion didn't even hit the market, as Green Bay inked him to a three-year contract worth $11.25 million on February 12. 

Raji, on the other hand, is not currently negotiating with the Packers regarding a new deal and says his future in Green Bay is "uncertain" at this point, per Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette

Some people have differing opinions on which defensive lineman the Packers should have re-signed. Some think that ultimately Green Bay may keep both. 

I think that this is the end of Raji's six-season career in Green Bay. 

2015 was a "prove-it" year for both players, each having been signed to a one-year deal in the previous offseason and each with his own off-field obstacles to overcome.

For Raji, it was his first season back after a torn biceps sidelined him for the entire 2014 season. Guion began the year suspended for the first three games of the season after being arrested for marijuana and firearm possession in the offseason.

If we directly compare both players' seasons, the numbers suggest Raji had the better year, while the eye test indicates Guion did. 

In 15 games, Raji had 22 combined tackles, 0.5 sacks, and two passes defensed. In 13 games, Guion had 21 combined tackles, no sacks, and no passes defensed. 

However, Raji also had more than twice as many starts as Guion.

The numbers also say very little about the run defense. Guion was a force against the run all season, especially useful stuffing attempts in the red zone and short-yardage runs. Raji started the year off strong against Chicago but fell off after suffering a groin injury. 

Now, don't get me wrong. I was impressed with the strides Raji made to rehab his biceps injury and especially so when he showed up to training camp in 2015 looking strong and lean, his flexibility after taking up yoga to prevent further injury apparent.

Raji also fits the mold of a Packers player better than Guion, with Guion's previous gun, weapon, and battery charges, the latter of which charges were dropped in two instances and restitution paid in the third. 

But for the Packers to re-sign both linemen given the abundance of other players set to become free agents in March coupled with the incredibly deep class of defensive linemen in this year's draft class would be a luxury.

Both Raji and Guion are better nose tackles than defensive ends, serving somewhat of a role redundancy on the roster.

Mike Pennel, a talented and versatile defensive lineman, is clearly the heir apparent at nose tackle, and Mike Daniels is among the top 3-4 defensive ends in football. Green Bay will quite possibly draft a defensive lineman in the first round of the draft, certainly before the conclusion of the third. Alabama's Jarran Reed could potentially fall to Green Bay's selection at No. 27, but if not, Louisiana Tech's Vernon Butler is another intriguing choice. 

Now, if this were a column being published on February 11 arguing which of Raji or Guion the Packers should re-sign, it might look quite different.

Raji is a year older, but has played fewer games than Guion and is in the best physical shape of his career, a fact to which coach Mike McCarthy has attested. Guion is better against the run, but continues to have trouble off the field.

But there's no use looking backwards. The Packers made their choice by prioritizing Guion's deal, and as such, pushed Raji way down the list. While it's far from confirmed that Raji won't be back in Green Bay in 2016, at this point there are too many other places on the roster in need of resources. 

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Comments (31)

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NickPerry's picture

February 17, 2016 at 05:40 am

I think perhaps Raji still might feel he's worth more than the Packers feel he is. I also believe Raji feels he could go back East and play at home (New England) of for a former Packers coach (McAdoo). Whatever the reason is, maybe TT is taking MM thoughts about Free Agency serious and is considering Knighton, Howard, or even Fairly who are all FA.

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TarynsEyes's picture

February 17, 2016 at 06:29 am

" I think perhaps Raji still might feel he's worth more than the Packers feel he is. "
I would have doubts about any player who didn't think he was worth more than the teams value placed on him. The thing that is more important is how much he will settle for which has a bearing on his desire to win and if he believes the team is a winner going forward regardless of the previous season and the reason (s) for failure or success to whatever degree.
Hopefully the team is sure that the player is a key need to make a winning team and will pay him. However Raji, IMO, isn't that player and isn't worth the bidding war that ' may ' arise.

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Packer_Pete's picture

February 17, 2016 at 05:50 am

I still think Raji could be a valuable piece of the D, and I think he is definitely better than Guion. After all, he was the starter, not Guion, so even the Packers agreed. He also doesn't come with the off-the-field baggage, which could prove costly for the Packers in 2016 if Guion slips up again. Which is likely IMHO.

Having said all that, I think Nick is right, Raji probably thinks he is worth more on the market than the Packers are willing to pay. He will test the open market, and sign somewhere else.

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 17, 2016 at 06:29 am

I would like to see Raji back. I thought our run defense improved when he was in there.
Maybe not a good or fair example but look at what happened in the first Arizona game when Raji wasn't playing. Arizona ran all over our defense. In the 2nd meeting when Raji played the defense was completely different.

I really like Raji on run downs and Guion on more of passing downs. I think having both play creates a really nice combo.

My guess is they will let Raji see what his value is on the open market. If its not very good that is when the Packers would bring him back.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

February 17, 2016 at 07:02 am

"In 15 games, Raji had 22 combined tackles, 0.5 sacks, and two passes defensed."

Well, there goes the thoery that Raji was still a super star at NT and would break out as soon as the Packers stopped wasting him at DE.

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Bearmeat's picture

February 17, 2016 at 07:36 am

He WAS a super star at NT. In 2010. I don't know what the heck happened to THAT guy, but if he's still around, he hasn't been interested in being a Packer since 2011.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2016 at 07:42 am

My eye test and Michele's eye test end with different results. I think Raji was clearly the better player. I thought Raji was clearly better against the run. Raji played really well in the playoffs, money time. Raji played 444 snaps to Guion's 330 (football outsiders). The Raji started twice as many games is an irrelevancy. I'd say that Raji played almost exclusively at NT, whereas Guion played a lot of DE. The discrepancy in tackles per snap might be able to be explained.

Every year Raji thinks he is worth more than GB and the rest of the league do. I would be surprised if Raji did not think he was worth at least 1 to 2 million more per year than Guion. Time will tell whether what the NFL thinks. [All this, and I have a reputation of not liking Raji - usual rant: never, ever give Raji a lot of guaranteed money.]

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mnbruton's picture

February 17, 2016 at 08:12 pm

Just wanted to pipe in and say that I think you did a good job clarifying that I meant to say, which is that Raji started more than twice as many games at NT than Guion - and thus, yes, Guion played more DE. To be honest, I don't love either player at DE, though.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2016 at 08:54 am

I agree about neither being a DE. Another point is that GB plays so little base 3-4 that one might question Raji's exact designation. That is, one can call it a 2-4-5 but it looks a lot like a 4-3 much of the time, with the line being Peppers, Raji, Daniels and Neal across the front as an example. I would say that Raji pretty much played inside, either NT 0 or shade/DT, with very little time, maybe almost no time, at DE, while Guion played DT or DE. We moved Pennel around a bit too, but he played a lot of 3 and some straight 5 technique as well. Most know I am not a Raji fan, but I'd say our best run defense is with a healthy (and motivated) Raji on the field.

I was concerned about Guion's contract because it probably in part sets the market for Raji, certainly within the team's salary structure, and I had hoped it would be less lucrative than it sounded. Guion's Contract:

3 yrs. $11.05 million, $3.6833 million AAV
$500K signing bonus - guaranteed
$200K workout bonus April of 2016 - essentially guaranteed
$250K roster bonus - due 5-3-16 - right after the draft; kinda guaranteed
$250K reporting bonus - due 8-2-16 - odd and not guaranteed
$50K per game roster bonus - 13 games likely to be earned, really 16
$2 million base in 2016; Cap# 2016 is $3.516; dead $700K to $1.2 mill

2017:
$400K roster due 3-5-17; $200K workout due April;
$400K roster 5-2-17 after draft; Game day bonus $50k/game
Base: $1.7 million, Cap hit: $3.666 mill, Dead money: $333K - $1.33 mill

2018:
$2.75 mill base, $50K/game bonus, Cap hit $3.71 mill, Dead $133K.
Pro bowl escalator: earns $250K if named to pro bowl in '17 or '18

Several ways to analyze this contract. All of the roster bonuses in 2016 are interesting. Clearly, Guion takes home the $500K signing and $200K workout bonuses [$700K]; almost certainly takes home the $250K bonus due on 5-3-16 (even if GB just drafted their favorite DT, they'll want to see the pick in OTAs before releasing Guion, right? - so $950K now earned). The $250K bonus due 8-2-16 is after TC starts but before our 1st preseason game (HOF Game on 8-7-16), so if Guion stays out of trouble he should earn this too, particularly with $950K dead money already, and again GB will want to see their draft pick play a preseason game before dumping Guion, so now we are up to $1.2 million. Base is $2 mill, + $800K game bonus.

So, one can look at this as a 1 yr. $3.2 to $4 million contract ($3.2 million to $3.516 cap because some of the accelerated bonus can be pushed into 2017 cap year if cut in the first few days of the new league year in March of 2017). $950K, probably $1.2 million is essentially guaranteed. Actually, that is not so bad. It is 4.52% technically guaranteed and only 10.86% essentially guaranteed. [Edit: Indeed, this contract should really be viewed as a series of 3 one-year contracts, since Guion can be cut easily after the first year.]

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Oppy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 08:42 am

At a glance, it seems like the Packers intentionally spaced out bonus target dates to keep Guion's eyes on a different prize throughout the off season... presumably to keep him from having too much empty free time away from Green Bay.?

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dobber's picture

February 17, 2016 at 08:50 am

"Raji is a year older, but has played fewer games than Guion and is in the best physical shape of his career"

...by shape, you mean oval rather than round?

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Rossonero's picture

February 17, 2016 at 09:17 am

Raji did very well vs. The likes of AP, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch. The groin injury hurt his progress. I want him back, but now that Guion was signed, I can see the Packers viewing Raji as too expensive.

The 2017 bubble is approaching with major free agents like Lacy, Lang, Sitton, Bakhtiari, Hyde, etc. Ted may think it's cheaper to promote Pennel and draft a DT than sign Raji and hurt the cap for next season when he'll need every dollar he can get.

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Tundraboy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 04:04 pm

Great point about 2017. If I'm a betting man that is exactly what TT will do.

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 17, 2016 at 09:58 am

Considering the figures have just came out for Guion, I wouldn't completely say Raji is gone yet. Guion is only guaranteed $500,000 on his contract.

I think the Packers will probably let Raji see what kind of offers he gets in free agency, then come back with an offer to him.
If they lose him, I think plan B is to go with Guion, Pennel and draft a DL.

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4EVER's picture

February 17, 2016 at 11:40 am

Are there stats kept on the number of times one can be double teamed and moved 5 yards + backwards. I would like too examine it and verify my suspicions here on Raji.

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Oppy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 08:45 am

Raji gets caught getting rolled backwards far too often by a single man for my tastes.. No true 3-4 NT should be budged by a single man unless caught completely out of position off the snap.

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sheppercheeser's picture

February 17, 2016 at 12:00 pm

If GB had offered Raji the same deal as Guion and turned it down, I'd be okay with this. It just seems a shame that BJ was the consummate team player on and off the field, yet a knucklehead gets the nod.

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D Ernesto's picture

February 18, 2016 at 04:35 pm

there not being ask to do math only play football and Raji is the odd person out

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cuervo's picture

February 17, 2016 at 12:20 pm

The difference between Guion and Raji is minimal...I think Guion's better more versatile, others think Raji is. There's only a need to sign one, and the fact they could Guion on the cheap, let him go whenever they want with minimal cost, and are protected if he does something stupid again...is smart.
Raji, while a nice guy is a so so player that I'm sure overvalues his worth. I bet he's still kicking himself for turning down the Packers offer of 8mio+ season a few years ago.
Now, enough with the "is BJ Raji gone" articles...the answer is yes.

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Oppy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 08:47 am

Raji is extremely athletic for a 330+ lbs. man, far and away more athletic than Guion in my opinion.

Guion is stronger and more stout; Raji is quicker and more spry. Part of the reason I don't think Raji is really a NT to begin with.

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D Ernesto's picture

February 18, 2016 at 04:32 pm

I hope your right. I think Tight ass Ted is drolling over a cheap Raji. Funny no one else wanted him so that should tell us something

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J0hn Denver's Gavel's picture

February 17, 2016 at 08:54 pm

We play an awful lot of nickel. I wanna say 75%(ish). Do we really need 3 NT? It seems our current philosophy on the D line is to use heavy personnel rotation utilizing individual positional versatility to create mismatches in the process. Raji is sort miscast in this D, unless he's playing NT when we're in the 3-4. He's shown he's effective in that position. Raji definitely has value against in goal line and as an added big body for Jumbo packages. But I think the Pack made their choice. Any Raji return is a luxury, imo, not necessarily needed, injuries aside, considering how the line has looked and lined up.

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Clay the 1st's picture

February 17, 2016 at 10:00 pm

Forgive me but the writer states, "Guion is better against the run, but continues to have trouble off the field."

What? Did I miss some news? What trouble off the field has Guion continued to have? I am aware of his past trouble but since then?

I think that was a good read, but slightly careless statement.

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Phillthy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 02:14 am

I was looking for a comment that pointed that out. What other off field issues did he have aside from the major Florida marijuana bust?

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mnbruton's picture

February 19, 2016 at 04:04 pm

I thought that was clear from this earlier paragraph in the article:

"Raji also fits the mold of a Packers player better than Guion, with Guion's previous gun, weapon, and battery charges, the latter of which charges were dropped in two instances and restitution paid in the third."

Prior to the marijuana bust, Guion had three separate battery/stalking charges in 2013.

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Clay the 1st's picture

February 17, 2016 at 10:06 pm

Agree with Jeremy that we can finally put to rest the debate whether Raji would "return to form" when back at his natural position. 2010 was the exception, NOT the rule.

He just isn't the player we all hoped he would be after being drafted 9th overall.

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Phillthy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 02:20 am

If I remember correctly Raji had a marijuana issue at the combine! Of all places to get busted that's stupidest of em all.

I'd like to see both back at a team friendly price and I don't believe whatsoever that Thompsons holding back cash in order to sign guys next year.

Each year the cap jumps up plus were around 20 mill under this year.

TT likes to sign the important guys during the season or before free agency.

Expect no major FA acquisitions this year, and a lot of our free money to be spent on resigning and front loading contracts.

Yall act like you haven't seen TT work the last decade.

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Phillthy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 02:21 am

Also I'm not sure what Guions "continued" off field issues are?

Seems the dude has made his wits about him after very nearly being released or not resigned, people can get better ya know.

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Allan Murphy's picture

February 18, 2016 at 12:16 pm

B.J Raji will be back on one year deal i think .

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D Ernesto's picture

February 18, 2016 at 04:30 pm

Sorry have to say I was not a Raji fan of late. Few years ago ya. Every time I watched him some bigger stronger O lineman was shoving his face in the dirt or he was in the dirt missing the play. No pass rush up the middle either.

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badaxed's picture

February 18, 2016 at 05:32 pm

DT in 1st round? What about inside lb? enough already.

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