Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - My One and Only Mock Draft
The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.
By JerseyAl
Here it is, the content you've all been waiting for! Ok, maybe not, but you're going to get it anyway. It's my annual futile attempt to predict what Brian Gutenkunst is going to do. It was a lot easier when Ted Thompson was making the picks - I had some pretty good success back then. My general approach is this - try to determine what positions will provide good value in which rounds, sprinkle in a bit of need and then choose the player that best fits the Packers scheme and team personality.
The "my one and only" term is technically not true, as I do a seven round Packers mock draft for the Draft Guide. But this is the only one out there for public consumption. Doing a mock draft in March is very different than one just before the draft, as back then, you haven't been influenced by the preponderance of draft content we get blasted with in the 3-4 weeks leading up to the draft. I don't know if it's just coincidence, but overall, my record with the Draft Guide mock drafts has been much better than my draft-eve mocks. In this year's draft guide, my pick was CB Nate Wiggins, Yes, I was aware of the weight issue, but he did put on nine pounds from the combine to his Pro Day, so I was willing to believe the Packers would help him beef up over the following year or two. Since then, for better or worse, everything I've read has managed to talk me out of that notion. Anyway, here we go...
Pick No. 25 - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama - 7.54 RAS. From the first day of this draft season, my brain has been stuck on Gutey taking a cornerback in Round One. I don't trust that Eric Stokes will be his former self, even if he returns "fully healthy." Carrington Valentine was a major surprise, but I'm not sure you want to count on him to play at the same level now that he's a known quantity. I dream of a defense where quarterbacks don't have a weak cornerback to pick on. McKinstry is not my favorite choice -- I'd rather have his teammate Terrion Arnold or Cooper DeJean, but they would likely require a trade-up. For Arnold, I'd be fully on board with that.
Second round, No. 41 (from Jets) Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU - 9.40 RAS. The cousin of Penei Sewell does resemble him on film, but he has a ways to go to get to Penei's level. Kingsley has all the athletic traits and tools you could ask for, but needs to polish his techniques to reach his potential. "King Sua" started at both left and right tackle and would be a fine swing tackle candidate for a year while working on the fine points of the position.
Second round, No. 58 Javon Bullard, S Georgia - 8.25 RAS. I've been thinking Cole Bishop for this spot, but the more I study Bullard, the more I like. He's not the most dynamic player, but he's a do-it-all player, something Hafley and Gutekunst have said the Packers want from the position. Bullard is solid at everything he does, is from Gutey's favorite school to pluck defensive players from, and would be a nice compliment to Xavier McKinney.
Third round, No. 88 (from Bills) Cedric Gray, ILB, NC - 7.26 RAS. Gray has racked up more tackles over the last three years than any other college linebacker. Still only 21 years old, he's played both the Mike and Will positions and shows very good read and react abilities. He's stout at the LOS, active in pursuit and accurate in his zone drops. Gray is not the top prospect in any single facet, but he's the most well-rounded, is versatile, and does everything well.
Third round, No. 91 Brandon Coleman, T/G TCU - 9.97 RAS. Coleman would be the classic Packers tackle-to-guard conversion project with the advantage of having already played some guard in his three years as a starter. He would also be good enough as a tackle to give you the option to use him there when injuries create a need.
Fourth round, No. 125 Issac Guerendo, RB Louisville - 9.90 RAS. A 220 lb running back with a 4.33 40 time? Yes, please. Guerendo was never a full-time starter in college, yet still averaged over 6 ypc and scored 11 touchdowns in 2023. Guerendo can power through contact and when he gets into open space, he can make defenders miss and then take off with that elite speed.
Fifth round, No. 168 (compensatory) Cedric Johnson, DE/EDGE, Mississippi - 9.28 RAS. Brian Gutenkunst has expressed on several occasions on how he prefers bigger players on the edge. At 6'3", 260 lbs, Johnson has sufficient size with an elite-level vertical and broad jump for the position. With Preston Smith not getting any younger and Kingsley Enagbare recovering from an ACL injury, the Packers will need a rotational DE and a project to develop.Johnson was a three-year starter and Honorable Mention All-SEC in 2023 yet is still only 21 years of age.
Sixth round, No. 201 Javion Cohen, OG Miami - 5.58 RAS. Cohen started two years at Alabama, earning All-SEC honors and then one year at Miami, where he was All-ACC. Cohen is a wall in pass protection, having allowed only one sack in 1397 pass block snaps. What he lack is some of the agility the Packers normally prefer in their linemen, but he could still prove to be a useful depth piece for Green Bay.
Sixth round, No. 219 (compensatory) Justin Eboigbe, DT Alabama - 5.77 RAS. Eboigbe was used both on the edge and DT is his one year as a starter. He plays with good pad level and can either take on double-teams with a strong anchor or shoot gaps. At 297 lbs, he could stand to add some more bulk and upper body strength. Eboigbe would provide desired versatility as a backup defensive lineman.
Seventh round, No. 245 Trey Taylor, S Air Force - 9.33 RAS. The Packers could always use another special teams ace and Taylor fits the bill. That's not to say he doesn't have potential at the safety spot. A three-year starter, Taylor shows great range wherever he lines up and his tackling ability is excellent.
Seventh round, No. 255 (compensatory) Myles Harden, CB South Dakota - 8.30 RAS. Harden is a physical corner who has played mostly in zone. He breaks quickly to the ball and contests catches. Run support and tackling ability is a strength, so a conversion to nickel or even safety could be an option. Should be an asset on coverage teams.
If you would like to support CheesheadTV, It's not too late - you can order our draft guide here. If you already have, I thank you profusely!
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
__________________________
Comments (116)
TKWorldWide
April 24, 2024 at 06:23 am
Merry NFL Christmas Eve, everybody!!
No draft is perfect. No draft ever unfolds exactly how we’d hope, but if GB got the haul listed above, I’d be on board.
GPG!
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 07:47 am
While I'm way less prepared for this draft than others in recent memory, I'm approaching this one with the Christmas mindset: there are mostly solid or developing starters in place at most positions and there's a crap-ton of draft capital. This is a roster-shaping draft and it could go lots of different ways.
Enjoy the ride, all!
Razer
April 24, 2024 at 08:03 am
Don't really watch college ball so I don't know the players but I do enjoy the process of getting to know the stories around these young men. I do hope that 6 or so QBs and WRs come off the board before us so that some of this talent can drop. Also hope that we don't ignore getting a stud D-lineman. The 4-3 will put pressure on a rotation of big men and I don't think we have enough talent in the trenches. Ultimately, we need to hope that the board plays out in a favorable way. Watching your guys disappear a pick or two ahead can throw a wrenching into a good plan.
LambeauPlain
April 24, 2024 at 06:40 am
Remember when it was March and the draft was 2 months away? And then when April came and just had a month? Remember last Thursday and the draft was only a week away? Then today, just 36 hours away?
That was awesome!
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 07:22 am
You should have Gute sitting next to you, waiting for a question, as you do that.
LambeauPlain
April 24, 2024 at 08:47 am
Chris Farley...RIP.
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:19 am
Big guy in a little draft...
Tundraboy
April 24, 2024 at 04:07 pm
Yes seems like an eternity but now only one more day. I just have one last hurdle an MRI and I'm all in with no distractions whatsoever! Family, garden, even fishing.
Boneman
April 24, 2024 at 06:46 am
Love this mock and would be very happy if it works out. I'm skeptical that McKinstry would be the pick at 25 with his less than exceptional athleticism. I think he's the guy if they trade down a bit, otherwise Wiggins is the ultimate Packer pick at 25. Don't be surprised if Guyton is their choice at 25 as he totally fits all criteria too. Great job Al!
JerseyAl
April 24, 2024 at 07:38 am
I almost went with Guyton and I did have him as OT # 5 in the draft guide.
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 08:08 am
How much more do you like Guyton than Suamataia? They look very similar to me. As I look at it, we could get Suamataia and Melton in round 2 potentially and that might even be the best long term answer at CB and OT absent trading up.
The more I look at this draft the more I see trading ten spots back as a better option than ten forwards, unless something wholly unpredicted occurs. That should yield something around the 84th pick in the 3rd. That could be our second ILB, for example.
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:21 am
I would go up a few spots if DeJean was sitting there. Not really a trade up fan for anyone else that might realistically be there a few spots before our pick at 25.
I am mostly underwhelmed with the pool around 25, so a trade down would be OK with me, I would understand the value proposition.
murf7777
April 24, 2024 at 04:01 pm
Damn right, we can give up one of our 3rds cuz we seldom hit on them anyways.
LLCHESTY
April 24, 2024 at 10:31 am
Suamataia could "fail to guard" as the Packers like to put it. Guyton is probably too tall for that. Suamataia and Coleman would cover a lot of bases with their versatility. Besides not testing for the agilities Suamataia would be a perfect fit for what they look for in an O lineman. I wouldn't be shocked if he was Gutey's 1st pick but I would hoping for a trade back if that's the case.
JerseyAl
April 24, 2024 at 02:13 pm
They are similar. Suamataia needs a lot more work on fundamentals - he's pretty undisciplined with his technique. While he also needs work, Guyton definitely got some better coaching at Oklahoma. TCU did him no favors experimenting with him at H-back.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 09:39 am
Al,
I've gotta tell you I was unable to buy the draft guide, which I did try to purchase. The system refuses to recognize my currently active yahoo email address. I cannot hope that next year's guide will somehow be better, only that it might be a repeat of how good this one surely is; the contributors and effort that have gone into it are much appreciated :)
And hopefully this bug is fixed for next year, which is of course why I mention it.
JerseyAl
April 24, 2024 at 02:16 pm
That doesn't make sense. Please send an email to admin at cheeseheadtv.com ATTN: Al and give me a full description of what exactly happened and what didn't work. I will look into it.
Al
BruceC1960
April 24, 2024 at 07:55 am
Will be surprised if Guyton is the pick. For some reason, Gutey doesn’t like the Big 12?
Cheezehead72
April 24, 2024 at 06:51 am
Al if this is how the draft goes for the Packers I would not be upset. No I am not trying to suck up. I am not sure if I agree with you that Arnold is better than McKinstry. I can see Gute taking a CB in the first. I can also see him trading down for an extra pick because we have needs and there are some holes in the back up positions that need to be filled.
So you did not have Gute doubling down on ILB. I would think we would be doubling down on that position.
TKWorldWide
April 24, 2024 at 07:07 am
Are you trying to suck up? 😉
Cheezehead72
April 24, 2024 at 07:30 am
Do you think it worked
TKWorldWide
April 24, 2024 at 07:32 am
¡Sí!
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 06:59 am
Time to rock the Boat-
I would trade up for DeJean.
But the visits of these players
Tell me what Gute is thinking.
Based on That -
#25. Nate Wiggins. CB -- DeJean Gone
#41. Payton Wilson. LB. NC st.
#58. Kiran Amegadie OT. Yale. Trade?
#88. Austin Booker. E/LB Kansas. Visit
#91. Kitan Oladapo. S. O st. Visit
#126 Jordan MaGee. LB Temple. RAS
#169. Jaylon Carlies. S Missouri. Visit
#202 Isaac. Guerendo. RB Louisville.
#219 CJ Hanson. G Holy Cross
#245. Cody Schrader. Rb. Missouri
#255. Nick Gargiulo. IOL SC
TKWorldWide
April 24, 2024 at 07:06 am
Boat rocker!
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 07:31 am
Other than Wiggins, that’s a draft I’d be pretty happy with, though not quite as happy with as with Al’s—as long as he resisted trading up for Arnold.
It’s interesting how players ebb and flow in popularity during the draft (excluding major societal infractions), but often I find that the truth proves closer to the starting point than anything.
Wiggins is a waife-like build. 6’1 and 173. He’s tall but has very short arms. He is a bad tackler for a corner. More than that, he seems averse to tackling at times. He runs a poor ten yard split that gets lost in his long speed, which is terrific. He’s a long strider who needs time to get going.
He is a zone type who gets manhandled in press and lacks the ideal agility. If he was 25-30 pounds heavier and more physical his speed profile would scream FS. He’s not and I doubt he will ever be.
However, corners need to catch up to their man. Short area and burst. Wiggins lacks both. He’d be great running 70 yards back to save a breakaway TD, but not so much 99% of plays.
If ever there was a corner who looks good in college but might struggle against bigger more athletic opposition and in our anticipated scheme, Wiggins would seem to be the clear favorite in the early part of this draft. No thank you.
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 07:43 am
There is No substitution for speed.
Wiggins will add bulk as he ages..
They taught shields to tackle.
And we don't have Savage anymore.
There are others with the same frame
only slower.
It's either him or a trade up if you want a cb.
A trade up changes Gutes visits.
Oppy
April 24, 2024 at 08:11 am
I'll agree to "you can't teach speed", which is (for the most part) true.
However, angles, technique, and football IQ can all combine to not only level, but tilt the field away from pure speed advantage.
You can lose over 0.5s just from a misstep and correction. You can lose if you're misaligned and have to needlessly flip your hips at the last second. All the speed in the world can be wasted if you take a bad angle of approach to the ball carrier.
Speed is a great asset. It can cover up minor deficiencies and can put a great player over the top, but technique, instincts, and film save a player more time that raw straight line speed does at this level.
murf7777
April 24, 2024 at 04:07 pm
"However, angles, technique, and football IQ can all combine to not only level, but tilt the field away from pure speed advantage."
I'd add tackling, otherwise, couldn't have said it better myself...too many get enamored by speed. Give me high 4.4's or even low 4.5's that has all of the traits you described over a 4.3 guy who doesn't or isn't as good at those traits.
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 08:15 am
Speed is indeed great. His long speed is that without doubt. His short speed/initial recovery speed is not. He’s not as big/long as Stokes and his recovery burst is nowhere near as good, for example. He will eventually overhaul most players, but it will be after a big play. His tackling ought to be a major worry too. He’s not just bad but seems to be reluctant as well. He’s clearly the worst tackler of the leading CB prospects.
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 10:18 am
6’1 173 lbs 30 1/2 arms. 36 vertical. Swivel hips
Reports-
Combines height and arm length optimally for an outside cornerback role,
providing a physical edge in coverage.
Could show more enthusiasm and commitment in run defense,
with tackling that is adequate but not exceptional.
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 11:11 am
He's no Al Harris with the 33"-0 arms and carrying 190-195 lbs on a 6'-1" frame.
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 11:19 am
NFL.com compared him to Campbell.
If you bring up their Combine results.
You'll have a pretty good description.
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 09:29 pm
? Soup Campbell
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 09:21 am
4.28 speed on a 6'-1" string bean frame. The guy is maybe 173 lbs dripping wet. Short arms, a good vertical, but we don't know his bench strength. Maybe the NFC east teams would want him to cover DeVonta Smith, or a team that has to deal with Jaylen Waddle/Tyreek Hill twice a season. You get a rhino like Kittle heading his way--call for the ambulance.
Tundraboy
April 24, 2024 at 04:15 pm
Yeah Wiggins is the last type we need. I mean, haven't we seen that already?
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 05:37 pm
What happened to your Trust in Gute?
LLCHESTY
April 24, 2024 at 05:50 pm
Gutey doesn't draft stick CBs so I have a lot of trust Wiggins won't be the pick.
Tundraboy
April 25, 2024 at 08:41 am
Still unwavering.
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 09:05 am
Double Mocha, skim, no whip. I'll stick with my post-Christmas, Bowl Games All-Star draft:
#13 Q. Mitchell CB Toledo
( moving #25 + 2025 # one pick and Newman to Raiders for #13).
#41 Cooper Beebe OG Kansas State
#58 Malik Mustapha S Wake Forest
#88 Bucky Irving RB Oregon/Gophers
#91 Matt Goncalves OT Pitt
#126 Jalen Ford MLB Texas
#169 Cam Hart CB/S Notre Dame
#200 Beaux Limmer OC Arkansas
#219 Jarrett Kingston OG USC/WASU
#245 Jordan McGee SLB Temple
#255 Justin Rogers NT Auburn/Kentucky
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 09:46 am
Or, by trading back and adding capital one could do something like this and touch nearly every need. Not all my first choices at a position, but all good ones. Surprised Latham fell, but sub another and it’s the same. Not averse to your selections at all, but I’d rather come away with this type of crop by far, hence I favor trading down if other teams want to rise, as they did here.
28 J.C. Latham OT | Alabama
45 Payton Wilson LB | NC State
58 Jonathon Brooks RB | Texas
88 Cole Bishop S | Utah
91 Johnny Wilson WR| FSU
126 Christian Mahogany IOL | Boston College
133 Renardo Green CB | Florida State
150. Zak Zinter IOL | Michigan
168 Malik Mustapha S | Wake Forest
169 Edefuan Ulofoshio. LB | Washington
202. Joe Milton QB | Tennessee
219. Eric Watts EDGE | Upon
245 Trey Taylor S | Air Force
255 Qwan'tez Stiggers. CB | Toronto
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 10:26 am
I want the Blue Chips. Quality over quantity. There was quite a bit of speculation and comparisons to Ted's get over the top draft of B.J.Raji, then the move up for Clay Matthews. Gutedkunst moved up and down round one in
2018, snagging NOLA # one and the move back for Jaire. Mitchell and Beebe are plug and perform guys. He seems set with Walker at LT and I don't believe he cares for heavy guys on the flanks. Wilson still troubles me with his injury history. As per LL. I rate Mustapha over Bishop and Hicks. Bucky Irving has the change of pace to fill the A. Jones void.
NitschkeFan
April 24, 2024 at 01:05 pm
JC Latham at #28 seems like a fantasy to me. I don't think I've seen a mock draft or run a sim mock where Latham isn't gone by #20.
Over at The Athletic, Latham is the 3rd best OT and overall 13 on their big board.
CHTV draft guide, Latham is the 4th best OT and overall 14 on their big board.
Otherwise I do like your picks, just unrealistic I think.
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 10:22 am
No JB and CW-
I'd take Al's first
Duhawk_47
April 24, 2024 at 01:21 pm
I really like your double-dipping at S, LB, RB, and IOL. Would be thrilled to see that come to fruition, especially if we do go with Corner in Round 1.
I'm curious to know your evaluation of our DT room, as it currently sits.
stockholder
April 24, 2024 at 08:15 pm
I wouldn't take any.
Robinson looked too good at the Senior Bowl.
Yet- he is exactly the reason I don't want a OL
in rd. 1. Testing has left question marks.
#2. IMO- None could replace Kenny Clark.
mrtundra
April 24, 2024 at 07:23 am
Saw a post elsewhere, that had the Packers trading #25 and # 88 to move up the board to grab Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama. Arnold paired with Jaire would be awesome! Grab another Safety, to pair with McKinney, and our secondary would be set for a long time! I think Hafley would like this, a lot!
JerseyAl
April 24, 2024 at 07:43 am
I originally had that exact move in V 1.0 of this mock but decided to not do any trade scenarios. I would definitely be on board with it.
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 07:50 am
The rumor mill seems to have the Packers hanging tight at 25, and not laying inroads for a trade up...of course, that all depends on which mills you visit. It also has them having some preliminary discussions with other teams that might have them trading down.
It's all about the clicks, but this seems to fit what we've been inferring as draft season has trundled along.
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 09:36 am
I generally stick with "Bob's Red Mill" old-fashioned rolled Oats, for the latest conspiratorial machinations.
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 03:00 pm
...and it keeps folks regular.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 09:55 am
Gutey doesn't know what he'll do, we certainly do not. It's fun to speculate, learn about the individual athletes, and there's nothing wrong with hype.
I think the least likely scenario is GB picks at #25, but whether Gutey trades up or down I won't guess. There's just WAY too many variables! If he does pick at #25, there are SO many prospects that we could hope will still be available, but will remain unknown not only until #25 is on the clock, but for maybe 3 seasons of playing time.
I still want to see a dominant O line this season. Whether that means picking an O lineman in the first round or not I don't care, but that is the most likely place to get a great one.
TKWorldWide
April 24, 2024 at 10:18 am
When it comes to the mills, I get the gist that there’s not enough grist.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 09:48 am
As great as that would be, none of them protect the QB. I've got to prioritize that higher, and I hope Gutey does. He kinda sorta already has, signing a former first round O lineman. We'll also maybe get a chance to see what he thinks of Telfort, Tenuta and Mt Caleb.
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 07:25 am
The names may change, but I can see a distribution of players that looks something like this.
Agree with '72 in that I could see another off-ball LB in the mix, but it really depends on S drafted and how many are adept at dropping into the box.
I'm so excited.
And I just can't hide it...
TKWorldWide
April 24, 2024 at 07:33 am
Pointer Brother!
T7Steve
April 24, 2024 at 07:37 am
I think Gute will play it by ear and get some late safety help for sure. If an exceptional one doesn't drop, he'll grab one of the many FA Ss left on the market. Don't you think he might do that anyway?
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 07:53 am
Would not be surprised to see them sign a box safety after Jun minicamps.
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 08:21 am
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a vet addition later, but I’d be very very surprised if we don’t take a true box in this draft. There are several in the mid rounds that look very promising. The difficulty is finding a S in this draft who can play deep decently as well. Who their depth at FS is will be interesting to see. Perhaps that’s Johnson Jr, perhaps it’s a different pick.
NickPerry
April 24, 2024 at 07:27 am
Nice job Al... I wouldn't be mad is the draft unfolded like this for Green Bay, but Like Stockholder I REALLY like Dejean. If they are able to draft Suamataia, Bullard, Gray, and then Coleman all before day 3, then you've already KILLED it. If Dejean is gone Kool-Aid would be a good pick.
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 07:52 am
Here's hoping that Gute doesn't think he needs to outsmart the draft. This one should lay out well for what the Packers are seeking.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 10:12 am
While I agree, I'll offer a slight refinement to your verbiage: "This one should lay out well for what the Packers should be seeking."
Since'61
April 24, 2024 at 07:34 am
Good job AL. Looks like you hit on all the areas that would help the Packers improve. In the end who knows what Gute will do and how much he will move around. For me the draft is mostly a crap shoot especially after the 4th round. Thanks, Since '61
T7Steve
April 24, 2024 at 07:39 am
I see what you did there. That was "cute".
Spock
April 24, 2024 at 07:58 am
This is the second post by '61 where he's had 'cute' for 'Gute'. Starting to make me wonder. :) :)
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 08:59 am
That boyish smile ….
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 10:16 am
Here's hoping that Gutey doesn't get too cute, and caught up in pressure to wheel and deal ...
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 10:24 am
With all the variables, one thing I think we all know is that our new DC has been working his tukus off to figure all this out.
As I rank our needs, it's OL, then CB S and ILB pretty much tied. 75% on D. Teamwork between Gutey MLF and Hafley is HUGE, and won't really be known until when? Week 1? Week 10?
GPG!!
HawkPacker
April 24, 2024 at 07:41 am
I like your draft Al, but I am not sold on McKinstrey at #25. I have read an article that his foot injury (Lis Franc?) is of the reocurring type and as a first rounder, I don't think we take that chance.
I do not like the idea of trading up but I just get this feeling that, depending on how the draft falls, I think there is the possibility that Gute trades up to #21 to select DeJean. I think Gute feels, and I feel, that DeJean offers too much not to draft him. He is very flexible in the defensive backfield plus he returns punts.
I like Al's rb selection as do like the speed and power his choice has. There is another rb, I think his name is Marshawn Lloyd, who also displays good size and speed. Not sure who is better but I would take best of these two.
I see that you double dip at Safety but not ILB. I think he will dbl down on both areas. You have us selecting a tackle, which may happen. With us already having two starting tackles and 3 reserves, it is quite possible that Gute feels that area is covered. However, I guess he could feel that these three are not going to be ready in the near future so he will draft one high. I think we need to draft at least 2 IOL in this draft.
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 08:54 am
It’s a Jones fracture, a proximal fifth metatarsal fracture (outside base of little toe area). This is a common injury in National Football League athletes. I have had one, though not one requiring surgery, from Rugby. I will say it hurts and does affect particularly lateral mobility playing through it before diagnosis.
He’s not the only early draft pick with one, Jer’Zhan Newton also has one that required surgery that I know of. In fact, research has demonstrated that up to 72% of collegiate players present to the NFL with a history of a foot or ankle injury of some type, many of which have recurrence risk.
Amongst the primary studies, there were 285 Jones fractures, all athletes were able to return to practice (RTP), and the average time to RTP ranged from 6 weeks to 27 weeks. For complications, with operative treatment, the refracture rate ranged from 4 to 12%, and incomplete healing ranged from 7 to 50%. RTP was 15 weeks for refractures.” mdpi.com
However, it’s certainly true that it can potentially affect career length and performance in certain circumstances, though it’s not stopped subsequent pro bowl appearances or continuing lengthy careers. Sometimes orthodontics can render it largely irrelevant. Ultimately, it depends on the severity and collateral damage if any. That’s undoubtedly a big reason why we had him visit and be examined.
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:31 am
Holy Crap Coldwater, thats a comprehensive summary!
Are you an MD or did you stay at the Holiday Inn Express near the hospital last week?
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 09:58 am
More edumacated family, and having had the injury in the past causing me to inquire.
Johnblood27
April 26, 2024 at 06:35 am
Thats a great learning experience.
All I know about is venereal disease...
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 10:32 am
This is what I come here for! Excellent information :)
Doug_In_Sandpoint
April 24, 2024 at 03:31 pm
"Sometimes orthodontics can render it largely irrelevant." Is it a Jones fracture or Hoof and Mouth disease?
Bitternotsour
April 24, 2024 at 04:50 pm
an improved smile can mask a lot of symptoms
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 10:29 am
Hawk, I think this draft will show us a great deal about how the FO feels about our current depth at OT, namely Telfort Tenuta and Mt Caleb. 3 huge humans! I'm hoping that they're better than a rookie could be, and if Gutey ignores the position in the draft but focuses on IOL I'd consider that as confirmation of this idea.
I just don't see how Gutey is supposed to know either way, since none of them have played. I find that frustrating, and I'd be surprised if Gutey doesn't.
HawkPacker
April 24, 2024 at 12:52 pm
I agree Sic. The FO is hard to understand and they play things pretty close to the vest. Case in point, does anyone outside of the GB organization really understand what happened with Yosh Nijman? It appears they just did not like him or he pissed them off. He was a pretty decent Tackle and now they have the three tackles you mention and no clear cut information on how they fit into GB's immediate or future plans.
These guys may not have played but they have practiced and they can see how they have progressed.
It will be an interesting draft to say the least. I hope I am not disappointed.
Untylu1968
April 24, 2024 at 07:44 am
I know it's not any kind of need, but give me a Javon Baker, a Rice, or McCaffrey somewhere later in this draft. We made the mistake of no O-Linemen in last years draft. Don't pass on potential talent, but because!
Spock
April 24, 2024 at 07:51 am
Well, I try (I really, really, try) to work up some pre-draft enthusiasm for all the "what I want for Christmas" mock drafts and "possible" Packer picks, but I always just get bored out of my mind with the content leading up to the draft. I'm just thankful that after Thursday night I will have all that content available AFTER the Packers' pick (although I suspect they may just trade down, and I'll have to wait even more time, sigh). Then, I'll be able to look at what the pre-draft analysis was. By the weekend I'll be happy to read Packer content again. Just wish we were there now, lol. :)
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:33 am
Fascinating Spock.
There is always the possibility of unplugging for a few weeks to keep the ol' powder dry for when the real bullets start flying.
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 08:03 am
Good draft Al, as long as you managed to hold off on trading up ten or so spots for Arnold. He’s a good player no doubt, a willing tackler and able to play press coverages well.
He’d suit our system but not at the cost of jumping ten spots. The marginal upside over other options is not vast and outweighed by the opportunity cost of the pick surrendered. If he falls significantly (highly unlikely), then it might be worth it.
McKinstry is the most physical. He’s not as fluid a mover as Arnold (though the Jones fracture may be part of that), but he’s probably better verses the run and at the catch point. He’s also pretty unphased by adversity and that’s a key element for success as a corner, though he can be grabby at times. All things equal, I’d take Arnold, just. It’s close. Not close enough to throw away a top 100 pick. I think a few technical tweaks could elevate McKinistry a little more.
If we don’t get McKinistry then I think Melton is almost as good an option. Similar type, a little less polished, but consistently improved over his career. We could probably trade back and get him in the second. That might be my preference, honestly.
Oppy
April 24, 2024 at 08:15 am
My final draft prediction is Packers fans will needlessly freak the eff out before the end of day 2.
That's my only draft prediction. It's my yearly draft prediction. I think I'm close to 100% over the last 2 decades.
Ultimately, I let the draft come to me. Great time of year once you understand you have zero input into the decisions being made. Just tell me who the selections are and let's roll.
x24
April 24, 2024 at 08:33 am
You mean when they pick a WR at #25?
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:34 am
How about a trade up for a falling QB?
Oppy
April 24, 2024 at 06:28 pm
I literally posted about 2 weeks ago that I would love to see the Packers take a WR or a QB with their first round selection just to watch all the heads explode. :)
HawkPacker
April 24, 2024 at 12:56 pm
Possibly picking Legette in the second round?
BruceC1960
April 24, 2024 at 09:05 am
Can’t remember the last day 1 or 2 pick the fans were happy about.
jannesbjornson
April 24, 2024 at 10:17 am
Watson.
dobber
April 24, 2024 at 03:03 pm
But they were pissed off about the cost to deal up.
BruceC1960
April 25, 2024 at 12:43 pm
Many didn’t like the trade up.
mnbadger
April 24, 2024 at 12:34 pm
I'm with you Oppy. Right now I'm more concerned about getting Chkn Wings smoked to perfection and having the correct amount of Newcastle Brown Ale and a later glass of my favorite Irish Whiskey available.
Next week I'll dig in and focus on who we have vs who we want.
GPG!
In Gutey (Cutey?) I trust!
Oppy
April 24, 2024 at 06:29 pm
I've shifted my priorities.
Now I'm more concerned about getting an invitation to this sweet smoked chicken wing party you're throwing.
RCPackerFan
April 24, 2024 at 08:39 am
Mock drafts are always fun. Fun to see who people project to go where.
As for this mock I feel its pretty accurate with the positions that GB will take.
For this mock there are 3 OL, 2 CB, 2 S, 1 LB, 1 RB, 1 Edge, 1 DT.
At the end of the draft I feel like this will be very close to what they end up with. The players will maybe be different but the positions I feel will be pretty close.
LeotisHarris
April 24, 2024 at 08:41 am
There certainly has been a plethora of mocking 'round these parts as of late, as evidenced in the aforementioned article. Soon the mocking will cease, and the coulda-shoulda-woulda will resume.
Have I ever told you guys about a kid outta Wisconsin by the name of TJ Watt?
LambeauPlain
April 24, 2024 at 09:18 am
Ted was a wise snowy owl for the most part. At times he seemed like a stuffed snowy owl...and thanks Leotis for reminding me when he declined to fly off his perch with that TJ Watt card in his beak.
Instead, Ted turned his head 180 degrees...nodded at the Browns and gave up his #1 while TJ was looking for his Packer cap when his agent yelled..."no,no, TJ... grab the Steeler cap"!
Instead, Ted swooped up Cleveland's #33, the consensus perennial all star, always available Kevin King....AND their # 108...to select TJ's Badger wingman Vince Biegel, to try to convince Packer fans to put down their pitchforks.
Good times.
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:36 am
Bortolini, thats the ticket... yeah, Tortolini... with vodka sauce... yummmmm
Bitternotsour
April 24, 2024 at 10:20 am
you say the mocking ceases, rest assured I will be mocking right thru the regular season and beyond.
also who is this TJ Watt fellow, I don't believe I've heard that name before.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 24, 2024 at 10:37 am
He has pizza named after him.
Oppy
April 24, 2024 at 06:36 pm
I'm assuming that pizza is sold at Doc's dry dock?
I understand that's the Watt Family's favorite pizza pub/tavern.
Doc's pizza is in its own lane. There's no pizza category it fits neatly into. It's really good, I haven't had it in a number of years.
I'll have to see if the TJ Watt pizza is indeed on the menu at Doc's. If it is.. I might have to break this damn diet I'm on and pick one up this weekend.
Johnblood27
April 24, 2024 at 09:52 am
I hesitate to do this, but...
The first guy listed is my preferred pick at that spot. Depending on how things play out, the positions and order would fall with the appropriate second and third guys listed. Have at it.
1 DeJean(DB) or Guyton(OT) or Barton(OL)
2a Cooper(LB) or Suamataia(OT) or Frazier(OL)
2b Haynes(OL) or Colson(LB) or Melton(CB)
3a Hicks(S) or Bishop(S) or Puni(OL)
3b Jackson(CB) or Zinter(OL) or Gray(LB)
4 Coleman(OL) or Oladapo(S) or Foster(OT)
5 Bortolini(OL) or Laube(RB_ST) or Eichenberg(LB)
6a Cole(DE) or Boyd(DL) or Schrader(RB_ST)
6b Taylor (S) or Magee(LB) or Monroe(CB)
7a Taylor (P) or Milton(QB) or Crumedy(DL)
7b Shimko(LS) or Watson(LB) or Casey(LB)
Coldworld
April 24, 2024 at 10:04 am
A long snapper favorite! Good research. Cant say I have even looked. I do agree we need one to compete with Orzech. He was not good last year, which shouldn’t be overlooked.
Some good names. There’s a lot of depth in this draft if one is willing to accept that much if it won’t be “do everything” players but can improve us within roles.
JerseyAl
April 24, 2024 at 02:25 pm
I had him in my Draft Guide Mock. He won the Patrick Mannelly award as the nation's best long snapper (an award for long snappers - imagine that!). He also is purported to have NEVER had a bad snap in his five years at NC State. Bring him in!
Johnblood27
April 26, 2024 at 06:33 am
I am JB27 and I approve of this comment...
WestCoastPackerBacker
April 24, 2024 at 11:04 am
I don't really know enough about the players (who does?). I just want to see a secondary with McKinney and McKinstry. And I want the Melton bros, too! Not too mention Kris Jenkins; his Dad and particularly his uncle were good NFL players.
WestCoastPackerBacker
April 24, 2024 at 11:06 am
My wife's birthday is April 27th. I'm just glad the early parts of the draft are prior to the birthday. Several years I don't get to follow the process at all, but this year I can take in Thursday and Friday at least.
HawkPacker
April 24, 2024 at 01:00 pm
Aren't you the captain of your ship?
I am the captain of my ship but my wife always reminds me that she is a 'rear admiral'!
Alberta_Packer
April 24, 2024 at 11:26 am
A well-considered, balanced and orderly draft - assuming an event - that is a devoid of trades, reaches and Gutie bombshells - which could happen. Alternatively, there is a draft replete with trades, reaches and surprises - which is much more difficult to accurately predict due to the greater number of variables. If so, then the Draft may become more the product of chaos theory - "complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences."
"Chaos was the law of nature; Order was the dream of man." - Henry Adams
murf7777
April 24, 2024 at 04:19 pm
Gutey is famous for what is perceived to be a "reach" by consensus big boards. Take last year, the consensus big board which takes into consideration the average of many draft predictions shows Jayden Reed to be the 89th pick in the draft. That's a late 3rd round pick. Gutey took him at pick #50 and he ended up being a great Rookie receiver.
Trust in Gutey and the great research team the Green Bay Packers have developed over the past 3 decades.
Dragon5
April 24, 2024 at 11:48 am
Quinyon Mitchell and Coop seem like the sure things based on need if they're there...if a top EDGE falls to 25--that's probably our conundrum.
I brought up Xavier Legette a couple months back and I just saw the very first Packer related web post about him this week. Seems as though the stealth hype is materializing. Mock draft sites had him around 80 months ago and he's been steadily climbing. Despite not being a need, he's been my draft crush. Rumor Carolina gave him committment at the top of rd 2.
Coming in a close second, I LOVE the tenacity in Trotter Jr's tape at LB.
CB: Let's face it, fanbase is pulling for Melton Bros.
S: It's well established at this point that if DeJean is not avail / not our pick, then Bishop / Hicks seem like a solid plan B.
RB: Numerous names to choose from that have potential / high RAS; however, Jaylen Wright excels in pass protect--could differentiate him among the athletic standouts.
DT: Ruke Ohorhoro or Kris Jenkins seem just as capable as the top DTs ranked ahead of them. Part of my past wonders if T'vondre Sweat could develop into Gravedigger 2.0. For a pick outside the top 100, a gamble worth considering?
OL: AL's specialty ;)
As I've stated numerous times here over the years, I'm a huge advocate of trading back... numbers game will forever favor those odds. Rd 2 is usually our success M.O.
Cheezehead72
April 24, 2024 at 12:07 pm
No long snapper
Tundraboy
April 24, 2024 at 01:24 pm
lmao
pantz_bURp
April 24, 2024 at 12:54 pm
The draft is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get.
T.Hanks,
Burpalicious
Tundraboy
April 24, 2024 at 01:23 pm
Nice list. I'm a little wary of Kool-Aid as I am with a lot of the CB picks that are floated about. Must be the Kevin King fragility experience that lingers. I just want someone that's durable and is not going to be constantly injured if he's thin or a little light. I also want to see some strong tacklers. Like Bullard as well. Most of all, I want to see some offensive line picks, at least two, ideally three.
Duhawk_47
April 24, 2024 at 01:59 pm
The last 365 days of Packer's fanhood experience has sold me on trusting Gute. So trust I will do. The one take I have that carries any semblance of emotion or passion is this:
Bring in at LEAST 2 athletic and tenacious linebackers in this draft to put some pressure on Quay Walker. That has been one of the least competitive positions on the roster since he was drafted. That combined with Hafley/Campanille coaching I think may "unlock" him, as some folks like to say.
murf7777
April 24, 2024 at 03:55 pm
I'd be just fine trading a 4th rounder to get Cooper DeJean!
PackEyedOptimist
April 24, 2024 at 06:07 pm
Pick No. 25 - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama Love him, (and I think he'd be a great safety as well).
Second round, No. 41 (from Jets) Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU Love him at 41.
Second round, No. 58 Javon Bullard, S Georgia I too, have started to like him more--but I still prefer Jaden Hicks.
Third round, No. 88 (from Bills) Cedric Gray, ILB, NC Assuming, Cooper, Wilson, and Colson are gone, Gray is a good pick.
Third round, No. 91 Brandon Coleman, T/G TCU Love him. Another Tom?
Fourth round, No. 125 Isaac Guerendo, RB Louisville Not a fan of a RB this early, and even less of Guerendo's tape. He's fast and strong, but has NO elusiveness.
Fifth round, No. 168 (compensatory) Cedric Johnson, DE/EDGE, Mississippi Weird guy, heavy but can't set the edge, fast but no "bend." I think he'll fail in the NFL.
Sixth round, No. 201 Javion Cohen, OG Miami Not bad in the 6th round, but not great.
Sixth round, No. 219 (compensatory) Justin Eboigbe, DT Alabama Doesn't fit the new D.
Seventh round, No. 245 Trey Taylor, S Air Force Excellent choice if he drops here.
Seventh round, No. 255 (compensatory) Myles Harden, CB South Dakota Good choice.