College Football Weekend Preview: Apologies to Baylor

Someone has to apologize to the Baylor Bears. The playoff committee isn't going to do it. Leave it to the CFWP to do the dirty work.

The playoff selection committee would appear to be a power on par with God when it comes to the world of college football. What they say goes. And don't dare test them.

As we found out in their initial ranking release, the committee not tolerating multiple losses from Power 5 conference teams, even those from the powerhouse SEC West.

Two weeks later, it's clear that the playoff committee means business when they say strength of schedule matters. It might as well be etched on a stone tablet.

It's right there on the official website, CollegeFootballPlayoff.com, the first thing listed on how they determine the top four teams:

The selection committee will choose the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents, championships won and other factors.

Baylor is finding out the hard way.

Head-to-head results have been the generally accepted tie-breaker in most all sports for generations.

Despite beating TCU 61-58 in their meeting back on Oct. 11, however, No. 7 Baylor (8-1) is ranked behind the No. 4 Horned Frogs (8-1) in the latest ranking release. And this is following Baylor's arguably best win over the season, a convincing 48-14 win over Oklahoma last week.

Granted, TCU is coming off an impressive win of their own 41-20 against Kansas State a week ago, but presumably, the rankings have to do with the perception that TCU played a stronger strength of schedule.

The respective schedules of this pair of one-loss teams are nearly identical, however. By the end of the season, they'll both play the exact same Big 12 conference slate. They both coincidentally scheduled SMU in their out-of-conference schedule. Likewise, they both also scheduled non-conference games with FCS opponents, Baylor with Northwestern State, TCU with Samford. Everything so far is nearly identical, right?

This perception that TCU has played the tougher schedule has almost everything to do with one game. TCU hosted Minnesota while Baylor played at Buffalo.

Objectively, yes, TCU played the more difficult opponent. But should the disparity between Minnesota at home and Buffalo on the road hold more water than the head-to-head result between Baylor and TCU?

Baylor's lone loss was on the road to a respectable West Virginia team. The playoff committee is in the unenviable position of comparing apples and oranges, but it's difficult to argue with the head-to-head winner.

There's still three games left in the season and maybe the controversy will settle itself, but shame on the playoff committee. Baylor deserves the higher ranking until proven otherwise.

 

Where College GameDay Is At

ESPN's popular pregame show will originate from the campus of No. 5 Alabama (8-1) as they host No. 1 Mississippi State (9-1) in a game televised on CBS at 2:30 p.m. CT.

The Bulldogs have taken care of business every game so far this season, deserving of their ranking, but coming away from Bryant-Denny Stadium with a win against a Nick Saban-coached team that's won three out of the last five national titles is obviously easier said than done.

To make things easier on themselves, the Mississippi State run game has to set the offense up for success. Quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson have both been key cogs in the Bulldog run game this season, but they'll have to exceed the average 89.8 rushing yards Alabama has allowed this season.

By getting into manageable down-and-distance situations, it will be that much easier for Prescott to convert first downs with either his feet or his arm.

At some point, however, the Mississippi State pass defense will be its undoing, and the Crimson Tide wide receiver Amari Cooper is talented enough to blow the top off a defense literally and figuratively.

The Bulldogs allow an average of over 300 passing yards per game (300.6), which is just begging for trouble unless defenders Preston Smith and Bernardrick McKinney somehow come up with a consistent pass rush and multiple sacks.

Prediction: Alabama quarterback Blake Sims outshines Prescott, making it insignificant whether Tide running back T.J. Yeldon plays or not with a sprained ankle. 31-24, Roll Tide.

 

The Wisconsin Connection

Wisconsin's schedule has been setting up for Saturday's match-up with Nebraska ever since the season opener against LSU.

With a very manageable non-conference schedule (to say the least) following LSU, along with a back-loaded Big Ten slate (with Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota the final three weeks), the Badgers have been gaining confidence week in and week out entering perhaps their most-important divisional game of the season (although Minnesota may still have something to say about that).

When No. 20 Wisconsin hosts No. 16 Nebraska at Camp Randall, in a game televised on ABC at 2:30 p.m., the biggest factor whether the Badgers defense can slow down Ameer Abdullah and the Cornhuskers running game.

It's been said before in this space, but it's worth repeating, major credit goes to head coach Gary Andersen and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda for the job they've done with the Wisconsin defense, ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense and in the top five in five major categories.

It's true that Wisconsin hasn't played many powerhouse offenses this season, but ranking No. 1 out of 128 teams doesn't happen by accident. And it's even more impressive considering the dropoff from losses such as Chris Borland, Beau Allen and Dezmen Southward.

The Badgers are limiting opponents to an average of less than 100 rushing yards per game (94.3), but they haven't faced a challenge like the Huskers present since Week 1.

Abdullah may have sprained the MCL in his left knee in Nebraska's last game against Purdue on Nov. 1, but he he practiced this week and is expected to play.

With the exception of the Purdue game, Michigan State was the only team to slow down Abdullah this season, holding him to 45 yards on 24 carries.

If Wisconsin is to do the same, they'll need continued outstanding play from their front seven, and having the services of defensive lineman Conrad Zagzebski would certainly help. Zabzebski exited the Badgers' last game against Purdue but also practiced this week.

It goes without saying that Saturday will be a match-up of two of the best running backs in the country as Wisconsin features a pretty good player of their own in Melvin Gordon.

In order to stop Gordon, Nebraska will need more than just Randy Gregory, the 6-6, 245-pound end and potentially a future first round draft choice.

Prediction: Abdullah won't be stopped completely, but behind the strength of a fired-up Camp Randall crowd, the Badgers will force Huskers quarterback Tommy Armstrong into a back-breaking turnover, accounting for the difference in the game. 24-21, On Wisconsin.

 

What Happened Before Saturday

Despite falling beind 31-2, Cal made a furious comeback attempt to pull within one score of USC in the fourth quarter, but Nelson Agholor wouldn't let it happen.

USC took advantage of a Cal pass defense that gave Agholor too much off a cushion at the line of scrimmage and quarterback Cody Kessler got the ball to his playmaker early and often.

By the time the first play of the second quarter was whistled dead, Agholor would already have nine catches for 139 yards as the Golden Bears dug a hole they couldn't climb out.

When the game was over, Agholor found himself with a stat line reading 16 receptions for 216 yards and two touchdowns.

At 6-1 and 190 lbs. and as functionally strong as they come, Agholor is setting himself up to become the next USC wide receiver to declare for the draft as an underclassman, just like Robert Woods and Marqise Lee before him.

USC may not make the inaugural playoff but improving to 7-3, they remain in the running for a high-profile bowl game. Cal, meanwhile, must win one of their last two games to qualify for bowl after dropping to 5-5.

 

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor at Cheesehead TV and its "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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Comments (1)

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Ualitore's picture

January 28, 2020 at 11:07 am

There's so much to say about football. A large list of players, which is still difficult to remember.

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