Brian Gutekunst Has Earned the Benefit of the Doubt on Jones-Jacobs Gamble

Gutekunst has got it right more often than not when it comes to releasing veterans.

Monday was an emotional rollercoaster for Packers fans, as the ‘Free Agency Frenzy’ lived up to its name.

David Bakhtiari’s release may have been inevitable, but that did not soften the blow of losing one of the franchises best and most tenured offensive linemen, especially given the depressing nature of his final years in Green Bay.

The signing of Xavier McKinney, the consensus number one free agent target for Green Bay who was somehow allowed to get out of New York, was met with elation from all corners of the Packers blogosphere, and should help Jeff Hafley implement his new vision for the defense.

But the most shocking moves of the day; the acquisition of Josh Jacobs and subsequent release of fan favorite Aaron Jones, sent shockwaves through Packers nation and sparked a conversation which will likely continue well into the regular season.

Brian Gutekunst had previously said he “absolutely” expected Jones to be back for 2024, but contract negotiations broke down with the Packers reportedly insisting on a pay cut of at least 50 percent.

The Packers pivoted to Jacobs, giving him almost exactly the same contract as Jones signed in 2021 ($48m over four years with $12.5m guaranteed).

Banking on Jacobs to return to his pre-2023 form is something of a risk, but Gutekunst has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to letting veteran players go a year too early rather than a year too late, and getting free agent signings right.

One of Gutekunst’s first moves as GM was to release Jordy Nelson. He has also let go of Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb (the first time), and of course, Aaron Rodgers.

Those moves hurt at the time and were not easy decisions, but they worked out for the best. None of them went on to prove Gutekunst wrong, although Rodgers is yet to have his chance.

In his first chance to splash the cash, Gutekunst brought in Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner. The Packers did not regret any of those big money moves, a rarity for any NFL team spending so much in free agency.

Losing Jones hurts, more so now he has signed with the rival Vikings for a reasonable $7m, but it is the GMs job to operate without emotion or sentiment, and moving on from a 29-year-old, oft injured running back earning more than he was worth is a perfectly rational decision.

As is the signing of Jacobs, who will likely serve more as an A.J. Dillon replacement than a Jones replacement. His last campaign was disturbingly underwhelming, but he led the league in rushing in 2022 and performed well in previous seasons, too.

There were extenuating circumstances behind the 2023 slide, such as the Raiders’ terrible offense led by Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jacobs’ holdout which may have caused him to be delayed in getting up to full speed.

At 26 years old, Jacobs should have plenty left in the tank, and what originally looked like a pricey contract has been revealed as a year-to-year proposition for the Packers. There is a risk that he does not bounce back this season, but in that case, Green Bay can get out of the contract pretty painlessly next year.

There was more excitement around the Jacobs signing when Packers fans believed (for about an hour) that he would be paired with Jones, but the latter’s release does not change the fact that Jacobs is a hugely talented back and is capable of carrying the load going forward.

Brian Gutekunst has done a masterful job of constructing a competitive roster during his time at the helm, and although the Jones/Jacobs decision feels uncomfortable, and comes with an element of risk, history suggests he is more likely to have got this decision right than wrong.

 

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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres

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16 points
 

Comments (118)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
MooPack's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:31 pm

Tea and Biscuits for ya, Mark.

0 points
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2
NJ-RICK's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:34 pm

Time will tell, If not maybe its time to make changes in the MGT staff. Hope for the best... GO PACK GO

-13 points
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Pistolero's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:45 pm

What kind of take is that? You have no opinion today, but if it doesn’t work out you reserve the right to criticize it later and call for people to be fired?

Does not get worse than that. Make the call today or zip it.

10 points
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cdoemel's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:46 pm

Yeah, because as the article detailed Gutekunst sucks and can’t ever get it right. Geesh.

-1 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:17 pm

Huh? You want to get rid of a management who was able to make the playoffs the year AFTER trading away a Hall of Fame QB? Many teams' fans would love the chance to have a front office as functional as GBP. Look at the teams that suck after losing a Hall of Fame QB:

NE
NO
NYG
IND
PIT

These teams all had top QBs and have barely sniffed the playoffs if at all since losing Brady, Brees, E Manning, P Manning and A Luck, and Big Ben.

3 points
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murf7777's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:38 pm

Good article! "There is a risk that he does not bounce back this season, but in that case, Green Bay can get out of the contract pretty painlessly next year."

I'd add there is a risk that Aaron Jones has more injuries and declines in production. I think the upside is greater with Jacobs because he's 3.5 years younger and will be under contract for up to 4 years if the Packers so choose to do so. You also should add that Jacobs injured his Quad and was out for 4 games. He most likely would've eclipsed 1000 rushing yards and 350 receiving. I think that is more of his floor and his ceiling is 2022, which lead the league in rushing and all purpose yards.

When looking at his game-by-game stats, I did notice that in his last 5 games he had a 98 and two 100+ rushing games so your thoughts about coming in out of shape, etc...has some validity. I also agree that LA's offense was disfunctional and they had a coaching change mid season. By the way, those 4 good rushing games came with the new coach. You take that and Mlf offense play calling and I think the risk is mitigated to a very low level. And the upside is great.

IMO, another great job by Gutey and the contract Ball negotiated is very much Packer friendly.

13 points
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dblbogey's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:55 pm

Next, draft 1 OL early. Maybe more later.

7 points
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murf7777's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:05 pm

#buildthetrenches!!!!!!!!!

5 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:42 pm

Need 3 O linemen in this draft, and they all have to be good.

2 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:54 pm

If you were going to invest in the Team's OL to protect your soon to be $hundred Million man, this would be a good year.

Some very good immediate starters and solid, deep depth.

7 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:53 pm

Deep depth is my favorite kind! 😉

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:14 pm

That's crazy. If he has a bad year you paid $14.8 million to find out. Not great Bob.

-6 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:35 pm

I don't think his 2023 season was bad because he got too old, or past injuries diminished his abilities. The Raiders were a mess! Their O line couldn't block him well, their offensive coaching wasn't doing them any favors, etc.

GB needs a dominant O line, all the way across. We can't have a C / RG combo that the whole league knows you can't run behind and expect Jacobs to have a huge year. Further, MLF needs to adjust his playcalling to make the most of what he CAN do, and that places additional emphasis on the Kyle Juscyk role.

Watch his 2022 highlight reel - holy #!!?#!! Batman! He did what neither Dillon nor Jones could. He's also unpredictable, including running out of bounds to avoid contact, running straight into a defender in the secondary to punish him, but breaking through to the secondary with the main question being will he be caught from behind or take it to the house. On the field he has the speed of Dillon at the combine. I've been rooting for Gutey to draft all day Ray from TN, but will he ever have the career of Jacobs?

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 12, 2024 at 05:24 pm

Which is a whole lot less than he would have got paid last year had he not been franchise tagged. I’m not an advocate of Jacobs. He was essentially a more durable Dillon last year. They are gambling on him returning to form and perhaps desire, This is a better O and even last year our OL was better: the raiders were truly awful.

At this price in a vacuum, cheaper than Barclay, more plausible than Henry at 30. Am I confident that’s what we will get? No, but I’m going to have to trust our pro scouts. It’s at least a decent roll of the dice at underpaying, which we will be if he still has 2022 in him.

0 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:22 pm

A more durable Dillon? Jacobs had had 1653 rushing yards at 4.9 YPC in 2022. Just because 2023 was a crap show with the Raiders doesn't mean you compare him to Dillon, who has been a pretty pedestrian back his whole career.

Jacobs led the entire league in rushing as recently as '22. That doesn't earn a Dillon comparison. That beats Aaron Jones' production.

7 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:29 pm

This RB made our Packers look absolutely SILLY, losing to the Raiders. He also made some great plays in their win against the Chiefs. That's last season, his "down year."

Jacobs is a BEAST!

9 points
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Guam's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:46 pm

I completely agree that Gute has earned the benefit of the doubt when evaluating players. That doesn't make losing Aaron Jones any easier to take. Jones is a terrific player and a better person.

I suspect Jones felt underappreciated last year when the team asked him to take a $5 million pay cut and as a result he hired Rosenhaus as his agent. Rosenhaus is well known in the industry to be an aggressive representative of his players and wants max contracts for his guys. However he can't do that without the consent of his client. I think Jones was unwilling to give the Packers much more and preferred to move on versus taking another significant cut. So be it. Jones is now a Viking and the Packers have a new running back.

Gute did okay in a tough market where older running backs are just being devalued. Hard choices are what he is paid to make.

Edit: Packers reportedly resigning Nixon and Ballentine. Secondary looking much better.

11 points
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Leatherhead's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:48 pm

Wow, a really different tone here than a year ago, when all we could talk about was the incompetency of our front office and coaches.

So how long do you think this swap of Jacobs and Jones has been under consideration? At some point, somebody realized that Jacobs would be an available FA who would be younger and cheaper than Jones, who might be approaching the end of the line. They started investigating further. They watched Jacobs' film, they talked with the medical people about Jones..... This is why they make the big bucks.

6 points
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skydancer506's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:54 pm

They consulted the reports that the Pro Personnel department have on him.

Every report that every scout files on every player goes to the Pro Personnel department after the draft. When they need to find someone in a position of need, the Pro Personnel department knows who is available and can have the entire history of the player from high school to their last game played on Gutey's desk in a short amount of time. There wasn't much investigating needed - the files were all there.

8 points
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Leatherhead's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:37 pm

Perhaps “investigating “ wasn’t the best word. At some point, somebody got the idea of Jacobs for Jones, that idea got into Gutekunsts head, some vetting was done like you said.
The organization already had stuff like this and could quickly compile whatever is needed.

A strong move by people who get paid big money to be right.

7 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:59 pm

All teams have pro options for injury or contract dispute and track key players’ availability. They clearly feel confident in Jacobs bouncing back and may think that contract a steal based on what he could be if they are right and at what others are getting. They clearly weren’t far off on Jones’ real value either.

3 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:38 pm

I think it's less a question of Jacobs "bouncing back," and more about the team around him. Gotta strengthen the O line, and use the FB position.

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:06 pm

C'mon. They knew Jones cap number when they signed the contract kicking money down the road. This was a planned move in the event that Jones wouldn't move off that 18M. It was planned three years ago. There was zero chance he was going to play that contract out - I knew that last year.

Add to that the number of games he spent on a pitch count AND the 6 games he spent in the trainers room - it was a given.

0 points
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skydancer506's picture

March 18, 2024 at 03:27 pm

We are learning that Jacobs holds Rich Bissacia in very high regard from when our special teams coach was with the Raiders, and has maintained a solid friendship with Keisean Nixon from their days together on the Raiders. Apparently there was already some institutional knowledge about him prior to consulting the Pro Personnel department.

So yes, your hunch might very well be correct that someone got into Gutekunst's head regarding the running back position. I wouldn't be surprised if that person turned out to be Rich Bissacia, through Matt LaFleur.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:27 pm

Jacobs was probably very high on the Packers FA board. And I am certain Josh Jacobs let teams know he'd interviewing. And certainly he knew the Packers might want him with Dillon unsigned.

But events apparently began to move very quickly late last week when Jones and Rosenhaus refused to take less money to avoid a release.

They choose the release...and just as quickly signed to play for a mere $1 M more wearing Ugly Purple. Good luck Jonesy!

I wonder if Rosenhaus panicked after he learned Jacobs had signed to be Jones' replacement?

4 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:25 pm

I feel certain the personnel group knew exactly who might be available and how much the range would be for a deal and had the phone numbers ready. With Jacobs, they probably got their first choice. I read numerous places that Jones' team stop negotiating after GB's last offer on Friday. That's when it got serious to look elsewhere.

0 points
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HarryHodag's picture

March 12, 2024 at 01:57 pm

What 'shock wave?"

Younger, stronger, healthier running back who is almost yearly an All-Pro.

Aging back with ability but hurt more than he should be.

The only shock was Jones signing with the Vikings. They paid $7 million. We'll see how that works out for them.
As of today, Sam Darnold is their starter at QB.

11 points
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Leatherhead's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:41 pm

Already, I’m looking forward to stomping them.

7 points
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Untylu1968's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:46 pm

The only thing worse than Sam Darnold being your QB would be having to listen to that F-ing horn blowing constantly! Oh, and that stupid little clap thing they do...

5 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:15 pm

That insufferable horn sounds like a Whale in heat...passionate for a "trophy".

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 12, 2024 at 05:50 pm

Well Cousins won’t be beating his chest and doing it any more.

6 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:01 pm

He'll be back to celebrate his one playoff win with the Vikings. He'll go right into their ring of honor.

0 points
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Tundraboy's picture

March 12, 2024 at 10:51 pm

Isn't it more like the coming soon, future, Corridor of Honor!

1 points
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murf7777's picture

March 13, 2024 at 07:17 am

Or his son

0 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:17 pm

Since Jacobs got to the league they both have missed 10 games. How is he healthier?

He also has never been as efficient as Jones. His big year was built on volume not efficiency. You have to go back to 2008 to find a RB have 340 or more carries and average less than the 4.8 yards a carry he had in '22.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:58 pm

Probably as, or even more effective than Jones, however. Jacobs can carry the load. Jones has never demonstrated he can.

In the last 5 years since Jacobs has been in the NFL, Jones has never even sniffed 340 carries.

In fact Jones' highest number was 236 back in 2019 during JJ's rookie year.

Both RBs have run for over 1,000 yards 3 times in 5 years.

Both have caught scores of passes...197 for JJ, 237 for Jones over the last 5 years.

And for 3 of those 5 years, Jones also had less than 4.8 yards per carry. That JJ maintained that average over many more carries two years ago tells me he can run the football.

4 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:11 pm

And in three of his 5 years Jacobs averaged 4.0 yards a carry or less, something Jones has always exceeded. Now let's compare receiving TDs shall we? Jones is the more efficient back and it's not close.

Jacobs is a good back and hopefully can stay healthy for a couple of years but signing a high cost volume back for LaFleur's offense isn't the greatest use of resources. Last year the Dolphins signed Mostert for 2 years and $5.6 million. That's a good use of resources for a pass 1st offense.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:36 pm

Here you go. 2024, who has more carries and more yards and more starts. Thats the final determining factor. I just went back and read Aaron's Wikipedia page, I had forgotten he got busted for steroids, er I mean "violating the league policy on drugs" his rookie season and served a 2 game suspension.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:00 pm

I think the writing has been on the wall for a week because of no positive news coming out on AJ. And I have read articles on other sites claiming the Packers insulted Jones with their offer. No, they didn't. That was a fair offer for an aging RB that missed a lot of games last year. Players rarely get better as they get older.

It's a harsh reality in pro sports, especially the NFL, that older players get replaced by younger players. A lot of the time they are cheaper too. That's the beauty of the salary cap, teams can't keep the more pricey players even if they are still good. The NFL cap works, maybe MLB should copy it.

It would be great to see Bakh and Jones when they retire to sign 1-day contracts to retire as Packers and be honored for their time.

6 points
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2
Lare's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:14 pm

If players sign with the Vikings they can kiss their chances of retiring as a Packer away as far as I'm concerned. They want to be a Viking, they can retire as a Viking.

-11 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:28 pm

Favre came back in the fold. So did Longwell. He wanted to stay a Packer. He never wanted to go to the Vikings, but the Packers didn't give him an offer.

Jonesy can feel slighted now and try to prove he would have been worth a bigger deal, but he'll be welcomed back in GB. He's third on their list for total yards by a GB RB!

5 points
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Swisch's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:33 pm

The time to sign older players is when they come to the realization that they're not worth as much in salary as they used to be.
That would be hard to come to terms with as a player, I would think, but eventually some of them may realize that earning a couple of million dollars per year in a reduced role to extend their careers can still be a very good thing (as long as they aren't unduly jeopardizing their long-term health).

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:06 pm

Excited about Jacob's possibilities.

After the great get with Xavier...a good start.

9 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:35 pm

Me too Lambeau—we’re off to the races.

0 points
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Lare's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:07 pm

Jones signed for less in Minnesota than he would have gotten with a 50% cut in Green Bay. He wanted out, so be it.

-1 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:34 pm

That's incorrect according to a quote in an article by Bill Huber.

"According to Schneidman, the Packers’ final offer included a base salary of a “little less” than $4 million. Even bumping up the incentives from $1 million to $2 million would have left Jones maxing out at less than half of what he had been due in Green Bay."

Vikings offer is $6M base and $1M in incentives. That's 2M more guaranteed money than the Packers offered him.

3 points
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Lare's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:54 pm

I stand corrected. Another article shows the Vikings offer is $1 million more than the Packers.

2 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:41 pm

That's what I read. It's a shame GB couldn't get it done with #33, but watching Jacob's '22 highlight reel makes me feel better about this.

He's also #28, which I hope he keeps.

1 points
1
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MainePackFan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:55 pm

If that was the Packers final offer, imagine where they started. Basically, they wanted Aaron Jones to take back up money if he wanted to stay with the Packers. I think it's an unfair assessment to say "He wanted out, so be it", like he's the bad guy who wanted out.

1 points
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1
LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:24 pm

He's not a "bad guy" in my eyes. He could choose to play for Green Bay in 2024 or choose not to. He chose not to.

The only fair price is where the buyer and seller agree. He agreed to play for the Ugly Purple for more money and even then it indicates his value was far lower than Rosenhaus forecasted.

If Jones left money on the table he could have earned from other NFL teams, then the Ugly Purple deal was all about revenge. And I don't think Jones would do that, would he?

2 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:52 pm

That's my point. Nobody is the bad guy. It's called negotiations. The Packers offered what they were willing pay. Aaron Jones did what he had to do and took the guaranteed 2M.

"He could choose to play for Green Bay in 2024 or choose not to. He chose not to."

The flip side is they could choose to pay him in 2024 or chose not to. They chose not to.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:03 pm

Don’t forget Rosenhaus cut off negotiations. To end up with what he did after that looks like this didn’t go to plan for their camp at all. Clearly wasn’t a rush for Jones at that price, just the Vikings. That says a lot.

2 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:29 pm

I did not know Rosenhaus shut the door. That explains a lot. Tells me Gutey did not have time to play Drew's usual games.

Interesting.

0 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:30 pm

Obviously, Rosenhaus went out and got his best offer. Who knows how many teams he talked to. My guess is the Packers were made aware of that the best offer out there for Jones was the offer from the Vikings. Once the Packers said we're all in, the negotiations were over. I have little doubt if the Packers had guaranteed him 6M he would still be a Packer.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:09 pm

I don't think that is obvious at all. No one knows if Rosenhaus had his "best offer". I don't think he had time to shop for too many days.

He had an Ugly Purple offer and they took it. Very quickly, by the way. Other than the Packer's offer, I don't know of another offer received.

Maybe we will hear of several other offers made and the Vikings had the best one. I have my doubts.

3 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:56 pm

Lp. Do you think the Vikings are the only team interested in a player of Aaron Jones' ability? That no other teams were contacting his agent , or that his agent was contacting other teams?
I doubt his agent was twiddling his thumbs waiting for the Packers to up their offer.

It' highly unlikely the Vikings offer was a last second thing. I'm sure they had that offer in hand when they went back to the Packers. I'm not saying several teams made offers, but I'm willing to bet there were several who were interested but weren't willing to go past 7M.

1 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:49 pm

Damn near thirty, missed 6 games, was on a pitch count in 4 others, yes in fact, he may have had few offers near that number the Vikings offered. Now he has to spend money and energy trying to sell a house, find a place to live, acclimate to a new team, be an outsider, yada yada yada. I think he miscalculated, I think Jacobs is an upgrade, and I think he'll be sad watching us play in the super bowl. AJ 33 was a good dude, but he overestimated his value. As Clint Eastwood was known to say "a man's gotta know his limitations"

It speaks volumes to me that Dallas didn't sign him. Mike McCarthy knows him well, they lost their starting running back, and yet even they were not in the game. Drew Rosenhaus fucked Aaron over.

0 points
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Swisch's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:05 pm

At this point in his career, I'd project Jones as being a player being available for half a season.
Also, although Jones was stellar last season in limited games, it's hard to expect him to stay at that level for much longer.
***
The other side of the coin is that Jacobs was available as a significantly younger running back who has the talent to make the Pro Bowl going forward over a few years.
I do hope we find another running back or two to complement Jacobs so that he is fresh for the playoffs, and doesn't wear out overly soon for his career.
***
It's a tough call, but I think the Packers made the right move at the right time.
Jones had a great run with the Packers over several seasons, and that's something to celebrate.

4 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:14 pm

Jacobs played in 13 games last year and Jones played in 13 games last year.

-2 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:29 pm

That doesn't make sense. If there are incentives, then it's not guaranteed.

1 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:41 pm

WCPB. I think you are responding to me. If not, disregard this message.

6 million was guaranteed. That's over 2 million more than the Packers guaranteed. Any other monetary discussion was incentive based. If the Packers said we'll give you 3.9M guaranteed, but also offered another 4M in realistic incentives, he would still be a Packer.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:35 pm

That salary thing was a point I was going to make as well.

0 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:11 pm

I was a big fan of Josh Jacobs the year he came out. He's kind of a cross between Jones and Dillon; he has an elusive burst but is also a strong finisher. He's my favorite kind of RB: one that always gets a couple more yards than were blocked.

He also has made some fantastic, acrobatic receptions--much like Aaron Jones.

13 points
14
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:46 pm

I just watched his '22 highlight reel, and I can't compare him to either A Jones or Dillon. I put him closer to all day Ray, the draft prospect from TN, with the huge difference that we don't know if Ray will ever transition to the NFL with that kind of effectiveness, or have a career like Jacobs.

Emphasis is now on O line, and the Kyle Juscyk role; Jacobs needs those to be effective.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:16 pm

Of the 49 backs with the qualified carries Jacobs was 43rd in yards after contact last year.

-1 points
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Oppy's picture

March 13, 2024 at 01:56 am

You must be looking at yards after contact PER CARRY (hence the of qualifying RBs statement.)

Let's look at total rush yards after contact.

Josh Jacobs has been in the league since 2019 and here's how he ranked in rush yards after contact each year:

2019: 5th
2020: 7th
2021: 12th
2022: 1st*
2023: 35th

Career average ranking for rush yards after contact: 12th

*In 2022 he led the NFL in Yards after contact with 828, that's more after contact yards than about 1/3 of NFL starting RBs have in TOTAL yards in a given year.

Context for 2023: Jacobs played out his rookie 4 year deal with the Raiders, but had a bitter stand off when attempting to negotiate a new contract going into 2023. He did not attend training camp in 2023 in what has been called a "hold out", but he was NOT under contract. The Raiders eventually applied the Franchise Tag to Jacobs.

Jacobs also missed the last four games of the 2023 season with a quad injury.

Missing Training camp and sitting out the last 4 games of 2023, plus probably some bad blood between the Raiders and himself due to not getting the contract he was looking for and being franchised were probably all contributors to his down year.

I dunno. I fully expect this young man to come into GB in great shape and ready to prove the Raiders they missed out. Watch his tape if you are concerned he doesn't break tackles / play through contact. Josh is a beast and if you watch him play I can't imagine being concerned with his yards after contact. He's also got great burst, and despite many people being worried about his 40 time (he ran a poor 4.6+ 40 and then re-tested and ran 4.52-4.56's) his tape shows he has the second gear to pull away from DB's in pursuit. He has some real eye-popping catches on tape, too- he's always got between 30-60 catches per year and some are phenomenal.

I am extremely pleased with the talent and the production. Some are concerned about the "attitude" but I think most players would be jaded if you capped off your rookie contract by leading the league with 1,600+ yards on over 300 carries and your team and representation couldn't work out a long term deal. I guess we will find out how Josh Jacobs approaches his new leaf contract in GB. I'm excited to find out. I am concerned about losing Jones' blitz pickup prowess, though.

0 points
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Packers0808's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:31 pm

Talk all you want about this deal, is done, move on and see what Jacobs does for the Pack.

4 points
4
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:36 pm

Yes, but that’s why we’re here!

4 points
4
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Packers0808's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:57 pm

To move on for the future, past is gone.

0 points
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Swisch's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:26 pm

Well said, TK, and concise, too.
The fans are indispensable to the Packers and the NFL, and so we do have a say.
Even if we can't change the past, we can analyze the past in order to prepare for a better future.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:57 pm

Actually, as fans you can't do anything like that. You can only get excited for the draft and bitch about the past (which is exactly as useful as shitting in your own hand.)

I would say to you and all of the other folks who bitched about not trading for Marshawn Lynch for 5 or more years, well, we finally got Marshawn Lynch. Josh Jacobs is the closest back to Marshawn in the NFL today, and he's a Green Bay Packer.

Refuckingjoice.

1 points
1
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Swisch's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:37 pm

It seems reasonable to hope that Josh Jacobs will be one of the top three running backs in the NFL next season. We got him on the cheap, perhaps, due to him being with a dysfunctional franchise that mismanaged him.
Having just turned 26, Jacobs is about three years younger than Aaron Jones, who will be 30 in December. It appears Jacobs is still in his prime, while Jones is likely on the downside of his career.
Jones is someone to celebrate in Packers history, and to be genuinely sad about saying goodbye to -- but letting him go after several years is not an act of disloyalty. It's been a good long run for Jones with the Packers, beneficial to all involved, including him and the fans -- but after several years it was a good time to move on.
***
Generally speaking, I like giving second contracts to players in their mid-20s on the upside of their careers rather than third contracts to players at about 30 and usually on the downside.
I'll truly miss Jones and Bakh, and it's actually sad for me to see just about any of our players go (I'm still rooting for MVS, for example).
I'm passionate about maintaining good continuity with our players; but, sad to say, all of the good things in this life eventually come to an end, which in pro football generally comes all-too-quickly at about age 30 for most positions.
The key, as seems the case with Jones and Bakh, is to make it a good end. All of the best to them.
***
As a postscript, it's also important perspective that we have to take care of all of the players on the roster, and so can't overpay some to the detriment of others.
In that spirit, I hope Jordan Love doesn't try to break the bank with his next contract.
It'd be hard to pay him less than Kirk Cousins after his signing with the Falcons for about $45 million per year.
About $46-$50 million per year seems about right for Love. He'd still be getting his respect, but he'd also be sending a message to his teammates that he wants them to get paid, too, and to everyone that he wants there to be enough salary cap to go around for enough talent to win a Super Bowl.
Love could still be fabulously wealthy while also gaining richly in good will.

2 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:50 pm

It's impossible for me to view $46MM / year as a sacrifice that sends a message to teamates that he wants to win. Turn that into a % of the total cap.

0 points
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Swisch's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:38 pm

I'm not sure about the right number, SST.
What would you say it to be?

0 points
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vin0770's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:37 pm

Don’t agree or understand your AJ Dillon comparison. You watching him take it to the house runs? He’s got breakaway speed too because they don’t catch him. Hopefully he doesn’t pull his hamstring cruising into the end zone first game of the year and miss lots of games.

5 points
6
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:50 pm

Agreed. I can't compare Jacobs to either A Jones or Dillon. Jacobs does what neither of them can, but he still needs a dominant O line all the way across, and a lead blocker in the Kyle Juscyk role. If GB can get that and MLF can adjust his game plan to maximize this RB1, Jacobs could have a HUGE year!

GPG

4 points
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GregC's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:22 pm

Yeah, he lost me with the A.J. Dillon comparison too. Really underselling Jacobs there, or overselling Dillon.

3 points
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ko40489's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:39 pm

Assuming the report that Jones is signing with the Vikings is correct, the 2 games against Minnesota just got even more interesting. Think about the array of emotions that people will be having. Everyone understands that the NFL is a business that involves some very tough decisions. But there are times when it's hard for it not to become personal.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:43 pm

Ok - It's All in again.
The rebuild is over.
Expect a Super- Bowl
Or MLF gone.

-11 points
3
14
WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:32 pm

You wanna fire one of the winningest coaches over the period he's been in the league just b/c he doesn't get to the Super Bowl? You know how long it took Belichick to get to the Super Bowl? How about Andy Reid? The Eagles dumped him and how did that work out?

1 points
2
1
crayzpackfan's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:44 pm

"As is the signing of Jacobs, who will likely serve more as an A.J. Dillon replacement than a Jones replacement"
In what universe is a RB who lead the league in Rushing serving as a replacement for freaking A.J.D? Just stop it. He is replacing A.J. period. Because his running style isn't like Jones, he is somehow only good enough to replace Dillon? We couldn't sign our RB1 so we went out and replaced him with a RB1 and a damn good one at that. If he is replacing Dillon, well hell, did he ever get paid well to replace a second string back who struggled to average 3-4 yards a carry. Dillon should be jumping for joy that Jacobs just set the market at 7-10 million a year for his backup RB status. It sucks losing Jones. But we did not replace Dillon with Jacobs, that is absolutely ridiculous to compare the two. We signed a high quality RB1 yesterday. End of story.

5 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:52 pm

He's definitely RB1, and doesn't really compare to either A Jones or Dillon. He can do more than either! His '22 highlight reel is impressive. I don't believe last season was due to him getting too old or dropping off in ability, the Raiders were a mess.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:49 pm

Aaron Jones' production and leadership will be missed.

I look forward to learning more about Josh Jacobs. Seems like an outstanding football player and teammate.

He's been available as a player. Has not missed many games and even better, when he plays, he makes plays. His over 5,500 NFL rushing yards goes with his knack to find the end zone. Lots of TDs! And just under 20% of his total yards come from receiving plays.

Don't know about his blocking. Hopefully he can do that well.

JJ was also productive his sophomore season at Alabama...playing most of the year on a broken ankle.

Xavier McKinney and Josh Jackson? A good start!

1 points
2
1
BruceC1960's picture

March 12, 2024 at 02:57 pm

There must be more to the story. Just the fact that AJ signed for 7 million less than 24hours from his release?
How did he and Rosenhaus know that quickly there was no market for him?

1 points
3
2
Coldworld's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:10 pm

30 odd calls to teams since he cut off negotiations with the Packers and no guarantee that the desperate Vikings wouldn’t jump elsewhere if he hesitated. He took less than the older Henry, and he too went off the market this morning having signed a potentially 2 year deal. Overall we get a younger, previously premier, back for more than one year at the same price in cap terms as honoring Jones’ deal. All around Rosenhaus seems to have misjudged the Packers and the market and found that Minnesota was the only option to save face.

8 points
9
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BruceC1960's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:20 pm

Surprised AJ was offended by the Packers offer, then took that contract so quickly from MN. Sam Darnold and 8 more games on carpet doesn’t sound great. Maybe AJ knows of another QB plan for the Vikes?

1 points
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Straya's picture

March 12, 2024 at 08:44 pm

Especially doesn't sound great knowing the Vikings have no long-term incentive to use AJ sparingly. Let's see how he goes if they put him on a track for 250+ carries for the year

0 points
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exbody's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:31 pm

Let's just take a deep breath for a minute.
The Packers ( Gutey ) traded Adams to LV, traded Rodgers to NYJ, released Bahk, and AJ. And the Packers just finished last season just one game shy of a trip to the NFC championship game and now enter this season and for the foreseeable future as a legit title contender.
No Packer fan would have seen this coming given all the talent that has left 1265.
The fact that Gutey was absolutely trounced by the media, fans and by Mr. Rodgers himself that fateful day when J Love was drafted .....
Well, all those doubters are eating crow.
Gutey has been very solid in his personnel decisions and yesterday's moves are just more proof that he has earned the respect of many.
Losing AJ will be tough because he is a class act and when he comes to Lambeau the fans will give him the love and admiration he deserves. But leave no doubt .... the Vikings still suck ,!!!
So hyped for the draft and how Jacobs fits in the upcoming season and the anticipation of watching the
" baby Packers" grow together !!!
GPG !!!

8 points
9
1
pantz_bURp's picture

March 12, 2024 at 03:41 pm

Sometimes, there isn't any more patches left to repair the jeans. We got two used pair of jeans with less holes.

Now, put them jeans on one leg at a time and open a can of SNOT bubbles on the opposition.

Gute to be a Packer fan!,

Master P

-1 points
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AshleyFuentes's picture

April 08, 2024 at 02:39 pm

Is this a metaphorical expression? Or did I misunderstand you?

0 points
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Qoojo's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:14 pm

I can understand not wanting to commit to multiyear deal with a 29/30 year old RB. Maybe he earns it the first year but year 2+ really increases risk. The Jacobs deal is more about guaranteeing a certain level of competency instead of rolling the dice in the draft or on a young guy.

The evaluation of releasing Jones should also include signing top FA safety for improving defense. While I am sad to see Jones go, I am fine with the logic behind the move. It makes sense long-term for sure, and possibly short-term depending how much of difference maker the FA safety is.

4 points
4
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WD's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:25 pm

let's be honest. This was a steal for the Vikings who picked up one of most electrifying players in the game today. And, for only 7 million on a one year deal. Granted, Jacobs is a few years younger then Jones but currently Aaron Jones is simply much better. Today the Vikings offense improved and the Packers RB room has been weakened. I was ecstatic about the signing of Jacobs to team with Jones until I learned we were losing Jones. Seriously, we couldn't match the 7 million for arguably our best player? This maybe Gute's biggest blunder of all time. Nuff said.

-1 points
3
4
Swisch's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:57 pm

Some good points, WD, as for a stretch of games last season Aaron Jones was up there with Christian McCaffrey in dynamism and production.
Yet, Jones is injury prone and approaching age 30.
Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs, just turned 26, hasn't been too shabby, with three seasons rushing for more than 1,000 yards.
Just two seasons ago, he was astounding in rushing for more than 1,600 yards with 12 touchdowns, including an 86-yard run for a touchdown that indicates he is more than just a power back. Plus, Jacobs had 53 receptions for 400 yards.
Even last season, considered to be a down year for him, he rushed for more than 800 yards in 13 games, and had 37 receptions.
There are no guarantees with players insofar as they're human beings and life is fickle -- but it seems as though the Packers made a savvy switch at running back at just the right time.

2 points
2
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WD's picture

March 12, 2024 at 05:36 pm

Bottom line. The loss of Jones is greater than the gain of Jacobs. They better use their first round on a RB. They will have to trade up to get Benson because Dallas wants him to replace Pollard. That is why Dallas did not sign a free agent RB. It is in Gute's hands and this last move of not resigning Jones will likely come back to haunt him. More importantly the Packer offense. People saw how the Packers played with Jones in and with him out. It was night and day. Unbelievable to let him go. By the way Jones at 29 is not over the hill. He is at the top of the hill. .... And, to the Vikings of all teams!

-1 points
1
2
GregC's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:30 pm

If Jones was better than Jacobs, I don't think Jacobs would've signed a contract that pays him twice as much as Jones. And we can be pretty sure the Packers weren't the only team interested in Jacobs. He was widely regarded as one of the top two RBs in free agency, along with Saquon Barkley. The big question to me is how well Jacobs will fit into this offense. Jones was perfect for it.

2 points
3
1
Oppy's picture

March 14, 2024 at 04:37 am

The loss of Favre was greater than the gain of Rodgers, and the loss of Rodgers was greater than the gain of Jordan Love for a lot of fans, too.

The bigger picture, that's what needs attention. Will it pan out? Only time will tell. The thing with time, though- with older players, it works against them in the long run.

1 points
1
0
LLCHESTY's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:25 pm

Jones is injury prone, Jacobs is younger and yet since Jacobs has been in the league they've both missed 10 games.

You sure 'bout that?🤔

-1 points
0
1
WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:35 pm

If Jones was a steal at $7M, why were the Vikings the only team looking to sign him? A guy who is almost 30 and missed 6 games last season? And his production in '23 was about half of what it was in '22.

1 points
2
1
Straya's picture

March 12, 2024 at 08:47 pm

Do we know Jones and his manager would have taken $7 million from the Packers? Sounds like this was their fallback option after they held out for a significantly higher deal in Green Bay.

1 points
1
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tobinrote's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:35 pm

at the price the Vikes paid Jones, hell we could have had Jacobs and Jones in the backfield. I suspect Jones was willing to take a relatively lowball Viking offer to be able to carry them to two victories over us even with Sam Darnold at qb.

1 points
2
1
GregC's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:31 pm

He got $1 million more to play for the Vikings. That's a lot of money. Probably not as much as he was hoping for, but it's still a lot.

1 points
1
0
Leatherhead's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:49 pm

I think Jones, not yet 30, has already earned $35M.

IMO, this was about Jones knowing what Minnesota was offering, and Green Bay not being willing to go beyond that. The Packers are going younger and cheaper and if Jones wants to hang on for the ride, he's gotta take a paycut on account of he's 30 and was hurt all last year.

And it's a nice ride. Fans loved him, the Packers win. But Jones saw the paycut request as disrespectful and wouldn't budge on it. This is how it ends up. Jones gets two opportunities for revenge this year, if he's healthy enough to suit up. He's going to be playing for an NFL weakling this year that lines up Sam Darnold and a defense that couldn't stop a sneeze.

Jones Left The Packers. His choice. He was a good player for us. Now he's dead to me.

0 points
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0
harleycops's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:52 pm

With our player gains and our losses, all this turnover will no doubt reap some 2025 compensatory picks. Runyan & Jones count for two, but then the McKinney and Jacobs signings cancel them out. It's a long way to go before that's figured out, but it's an interesting topic this early into the '24 season. Let's just get some top dogs and ballers and let the comp picks figure themselves out for another day.

-1 points
0
1
Houndog's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:00 pm

Harley,
As Jones was cut they didn't lose him to Free Agency. They won't get a compensatory pick for that. Same holds true for Bakh.
Runyan's contract expired, and with the salary he got GB might get a 4th or 5th if he plays well, but that would be a year from now.

1 points
1
0
exbody's picture

March 12, 2024 at 04:58 pm

Guys. Please forgive me for posting again. But I just can't help myself with this news reported by PFT.
PFT reports that Aaron Rodgers is at the " top of the list" to be Robert F Kennedy's running mate. Ya just make this stuff up!
Wasn't it A Rod that said at the Jets season ending press conference that there's too much BS going on that has nothing to do with football!
And there's no way....no way this was reported without Rodgers knowing about it.
J - E - T - S Jets, jets jets !!!!
It's all about ANYTHING
BUT football!!

-1 points
0
1
golfpacker1's picture

March 12, 2024 at 05:34 pm

Bears just signed Jonathon Owens

0 points
0
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Houndog's picture

March 12, 2024 at 05:52 pm

That's too bad,
Not that Owens can't be replaced, but he was serviceable, and seeing his wife at the games was awesome! Damn, she's cute!

1 points
1
0
Coldworld's picture

March 12, 2024 at 05:57 pm

Bears have more cap space than a football team should and they are loading up on cheap and old back up types. If I was a Bears fan I’d be very worried about that front office. This makes little to no sense. Yes he’s depth, but where are the starters?

0 points
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0
EnemyTerritory's picture

March 12, 2024 at 10:12 pm

Gonna miss Simone Biles for sure. She was a great fan and supporter of her husband.

0 points
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Houndog's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:16 pm

Nice article Mark, but I disagree on a point or two. Not just with you, but with some of the reasoning I've read on other articles as well. For starters;

"There was more excitement around the Jacobs signing when Packers fans believed (for about an hour) that he would be paired with Jones, but the latter’s release does not change the fact that Jacobs is a hugely talented back". At the moment you might say 'He WAS a hugely talented back', in 2023 he sucked in comparison to his earlier years.

At this point he has 1305 career carries, 128 more carries than Jones, and 395 less yards than Jones. The Raiders beat the piss out of this guy due to their incompetence and poor QB play, have a look at Davonte's stats!
Another article stated that Gutey and the boys see Jacobs as as another Eddie Lacy in his prime, what? Eddie Lacy in his prime, what's that? Lacy totaled about 850 carries in his career and his "Prime" lasted about as long as the tons of Prime Rib he devoured each offseason, not very long. Lets hope that's not what they were thinking, but the "easy-out" contract makes you wonder.
Of course I hope it all works out, I'm a Packer fan, and I hope it works out for Jonesy too, he deserved better!
I'll wait a little longer before I crown Gutey, he ain't on Ron Wolf's planet just yet!

-1 points
0
1
golfpacker1's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:23 pm

Willie Gay to the Saints-1 year $3 million. How did we miss that?

Josey Jewell signed by Panthers

My favorites, Devin White and Bobby Wagner are still available

0 points
1
1
golfpacker1's picture

March 13, 2024 at 09:19 am

Wow a downvote for announcing players signing. You must be a real winner pal.

0 points
0
0
Starrbrite's picture

March 12, 2024 at 06:42 pm

My favorite kind of RB too Packeyed.

0 points
0
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PaulZ's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:52 pm

It will be interesting to see how the running back situation shakes out. While Jacobs' potential is undeniable, his recent performance is a concern. Hopefully, a change of scenery will revitalize him.

Paul |

0 points
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0
joejetson's picture

March 12, 2024 at 07:55 pm

I was of the opinion that GB would build through the draft for one more year, and then make their big Free Agent splash in 2025.

Obviously, Gute had other ideas. He's going after it this year. It makes sense when you think about it. They clobbered a good Dallas team on the road in the playoffs, and had San Francisco on the ropes before Barry's defense collapsed again. So they're already close to contending for the Super Bowl.

So why wait?

The knock on Jacobs has been that he didn't have another great season in 2023. It may have had something to do with having a lousy quarterback instead of an at least serviceable Derek Carr. Plus, the coaching staff was terrible. Jacobs was basically all they had because Jimmy Garrapolo strikes fear into no one's defense. Even with Davante Adams as another playmaker.

Between the Jacobs signing and the McKinney signing, the Packers are ready to take on the NFC.

Looking forward, they are loaded with Draft capital, so Gute may be able to pull some more rabbits out of his hat.

"The future's so bright, you have to wear shades."

2 points
2
0
Bisonball's picture

March 13, 2024 at 08:31 pm

So, here's the thing. Either Jones signed a contract slightly better than the "insulting" lowball offer of the Packers, purely out of spite, or he jumped on the Vikings offer before they found someone else, because he knew this was as good as he'd get.

0 points
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Strat's picture

March 14, 2024 at 12:46 pm

Aaron Jones, great player, Packer, Person. Would be tough seeing him in any other uniform. What bothered me was he pulled that hamstring on a free run to the end zone. He was running in a straight line and not even running hard at that point. You saw him grab it. Then he tells everyone he's ok, like most do, but he wasn't. I would be concerned there's more coming. Jacobs...I just don't know, but we're gonna find out

0 points
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AshleyFuentes's picture

April 08, 2024 at 02:13 pm

"And what initially appeared as a pricey contract turned out to be a yearly proposition for the Packers. There's a risk he may not recover this season, but in that case, Green Bay could fairly painlessly terminate the contract next year. It's possible he'll be playing poker using https://playsafecasino.ca/payments/instant-banking-casinos/ taking advantage of his friend's advice"
Jacob is doing great, keep it up! I wonder how much longer he'll maintain this level?

0 points
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0