Around the NFC North: Worst Case Scenarios
Let's hope this isn't how the draft goes.
By Mike Price
Everyone is writing (or podcasting or Youtubing or Xing or Pinteresting) their best case scenario for the Packers draft this week, so let's go over what the best case scenarios for the inferior three teams in the NFC North would be (our worst case scenario). You never really think that one of these teams will pull off a great draft, but each year they all seem to be inching closer toward competency.
Bears: Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr
I was torn here between MHJ and multiple trade downs that turn into like 7 other picks. I'm going with MHJ because I doubt the Bears would turn 7 picks into as much value as MHJ will likely be.
Both of these players have been touted as generational talents since they started their college careers and both have been taken down a little in the media lately. Williams for fairly normal Gen Z activities and MHJ for not bothering to do any off the pre-draft stuff. All of that is nonsense, of course, and MHJ will likely go before the Bears can get him with their second pick, but NFL people are weirdos, on average, and you never know what random tidbit is going to cause a player to fall in the draft. Randy MOss fell to the Vikings for smoking weed and then we had to live with that.
If the Bears pulled off a coup like this, they could probably consider their offense set for a few years. Sign a guard here and a running back there in free agency, but devote the rest of your capital to the defense. Their O-line will be made up of goodish players and high draft picks, they'll have two proven pro-bowlers at receiver (even if one was born before Yahoo! was founded) plus the best rookie in a decade, a good veteran tight end, and a good coordinator.
Thankfully, this scenario is unlikely - however, a version where the Bears end up with Williams and Rome Odunze or one of the top tackles is very possible and would be plenty annoying.
Vikings: Drake Maye
There's a chance that the two best QB prospects since Andrew Luck will go to the Bears and Vikings in this draft and I don't like it. Maye has also taken a little bit of a beating from the draft industrial complex. Where he was once thought of as 1B or even a superior prospect to Caleb Williams, some prognosticators now rank him fourth among QBs.
Of course, most of that is click bait or shock farming. I'll stick with the guys, like Nate Tice, who love Maye and have never waivered. QBs that check every box don't come along very often.
The Vikings probably couldn't get any of the top four QBs with their current pick, but they've been very publicly trying to trade up for one for over a year, and like the Bears, could have an entire offensive structure in place with this pick. That means they probably feel like they can spend whatever it takes to move up.
Lions: Focus on the Pass Game
The Lions got a ton of praise for the draft last year but I still think the Packers' draft was clearly superior. The Lions took the second best back in the draft with a top 12 pick, a very meh, so far, linebacker with a top 18 pick, and their QB of the future (who is almost Keenan Allen's age) in the third round. The draft really comes down to hitting on Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch in the second. Both are good players but would it shock you if Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft were seen as the same level of player to LaPorta after this season? Is Branch more valuable than Jayden Reed? And if you look at value from all the picks after the second round, it's not remotely close.
Anyway, a big part of the reason I'm down on that Lions draft (relatively) is because they're focusing too much on the run game. Their first four picks were an undersized running back, a run stuffing linebacker, a slot corner, and a tight end who was mainly a blocker in college.
Let's say Michael Penix Jr. fell into their laps at 29, and then they added Xavier Legette to a loaded receiver room in the second round, and used a few more picks to beef up their secondary. This type of draft could be just what they need to diversify into the next step. Of course, I haven't liked a lot of things they've done over the past few years and they were up double digits in the NFC Championship game.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved form Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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Comments (21)
Coldworld
April 18, 2024 at 03:16 pm
If it does, it does. Drake Maye may be a blessing or curse. I’d be quite happy if the Lions focus on O not strengthening their D. Chicago is going to get who they want to with pick one, they’ve still got to make it work. If they do pick at 9 that’s half of their draft done and their roster is not deep or even in quality.
50 percent of first round picks are gone after their first contract or before. Very few were labeled as such before they were drafted. Chill, believe in Love and the skill players we have already and worry about what materializes later. Most of any draft is false promise.
splitpea1
April 18, 2024 at 03:42 pm
None of these teams should impact our top draft selection. The Lions, in need of CB help, maybe be eyeing someone that we also like, but that would require a trade-up and I don't think they would do it.
The Bears will be starting at square one again on offense. Unless Williams is another C.J. Stroud, which doesn't happen often, we'll have plenty of time to figure him out. Ditto with the Vikings as they likely tread water with Darnold first.
LLCHESTY
April 18, 2024 at 03:53 pm
Drafting with one eye on what other teams in the division are doing is a sure way to have a bad draft. Case in point is Ron Wolf trying g to find DBs to cover Moss in the '99 draft. Especially in this age of FA when a team can look drastically different in two years.
The general consensus is of the top QBs Maye is the one that needs to sit the most. If the Vikings trade up to draft him I'll be curious how long they can afford to keep him on the bench before Darnold puts their jobs on jeopardy.
GregC
April 18, 2024 at 07:24 pm
Agreed that it's a terrible idea to draft to try to stop any one team in particular. You are playing against the whole league, not just one team.
dobber
April 19, 2024 at 08:23 am
"Agreed that it's a terrible idea to draft to try to stop any one team in particular."
I'd argue that's drafting with a backward-looking focus. Teams evolve and change in terms of personnel and usage, or they get passed. Have a vision, draft to fulfill that vision.
Matt
April 18, 2024 at 03:58 pm
1. The Bears are not as terrible as they were and they will be a problem in 2024 and maybe longer. They can really click. The good thing is I don't see the scenario when teams before Chicago pass on MHJ, especially Chargers with Herbert at helm and without their top offensive weapon. What is more, Williams' activities may be "fairly normal" for Gen Z but it doesn't mean we all must consider it positive. Some of his actions and talks indicate that he is on diva-path even before his first pass in the league. I know it may be my couch-GM's judgement but like all Packers' fans I am kinda acquainted with the subject. I'd take a modest guy like Love all the time.
2. Yes, Vikings with Maye would be dangerous but never gonna happen. All 3 teams to start the draft need QB as a must, not as an option. None of them is going to give up this chance and Maye is not dropping lower than 3. You wrote that Vikings have tried to move up for a year. Doesn't matter. I predict it the other way around. Cousins was just Cousins but you can't say he was bad. He was predictable and solid+. Vikings will roll a dice with Nix and Penix (which sounds funny) and Jefferson is watching this game with full focus. It can happen that Vikings will have a high pick but more likely in 2025 after starting rookie QB. Especially when they go into rebuild mode with picks from JJ trade.
3. Lions have been good for longer time and they will continue to be a problem. No matter who they will add. I only hope for this youth fire and enthusiasm lit 2 years ago burnout a bit. They were on a mission to jump off the bottom of the league and they did land close to the top. I hope some they are less hungry now but it's only wishful thinking.
dobber
April 19, 2024 at 08:34 am
"Williams' activities may be "fairly normal" for Gen Z but it doesn't mean we all must consider it positive. "
In this era of NIL and the transfer portal, correctly assessing the mental makeup of players is even more important--and more difficult.
"Williams' activities may be "fairly normal" for Gen Z but it doesn't mean we all must consider it positive. "
I hope an AFC team fleeces the Vikings badly and they end up reaching for a QB they might have gotten later in round 1. People don't talk about Bo Nix, but I like him better than most seem to. They need to do serious work on their LBs and secondary, and they have the ammo to do it...but they won't. They'll piss it all away to climb too high and reach for a QB.
"Lions have been good for longer time and they will continue to be a problem."
Their biggest win was keeping their coordinators in place for another year. Their secondary still sucks and their LBs are hit-and-miss, but they added a top DT run-stuffer in FA and took a flier on never-healthy Marcus Davenport to play opposite Hutchinson. Staying healthy is their biggest issue and Carlton Davis and Marcus Davenport don't.
Bitternotsour
April 19, 2024 at 08:55 am
Bo Nix is the most day one ready quarterback in the draft. The downside is he has very little upside. Yet, in a SF style situation, Nix is kind of perfect. Have a team that needs a leader, a quarterback who has poise, can process at speed and deliver the ball, Nix is the man.
Matt
April 19, 2024 at 03:48 pm
If it is really like this, I am all in this scenario: Vikings picking the most NFL ready QB but with limited upside.
Bitternotsour
April 19, 2024 at 04:04 pm
rest assured, if it can be screwed up, the Vikings will screw it up.
LambeauPlain
April 18, 2024 at 04:18 pm
With history as my source, I will not get too concerned about North adversaries selecting a QB.
Since Favre was acquired for a first round pick in 1992, and first rounders Rodgers and Love thereafter...here are the first round QBs for the rest of the North:
Bears: Cade McNown, Rex Grossman, Mitchell Trubiski, Justin Fields
Vikings: Dante Culpepper, Christian Ponder, Teddy Bridgewater
Lions: Joey Harrington, Matt Stafford
The Packers' trio have two HOFers, and a rising star.
Bears have 4 whiffs, Vikings 3 whiffs, Lions 1 whiff. In fact the only first round QB that paid off was Stafford with very little playoff success.
The Packers developed their first round investments and didn't play any of them as rookies. I believe all other 9 North first round QBs started from day one or during their rookie seasons.
Leatherhead
April 18, 2024 at 06:09 pm
You can draft a QB. You can put good players around him. Without coaching and development, he won't be a top tier guy. The Bears, Lions, and Vikings have developed how many good QBs over the last 30 years? In how many attempts?
In five years, they'll all need new QBs.
If the Packers put the best offensive line in the league on the field, they're going to win it all this year.
LLCHESTY
April 18, 2024 at 08:43 pm
With a top 10 defense it's quite possible. Top 5 would be better.
Leatherhead
April 19, 2024 at 11:58 am
We were a top ten scoring defense last year, although I know you prefer the manufactured statistics of DVOA.
We replaced the DC. We upgraded from Savage to McKinney. We'll probably have the services of Alexander and Stokes more this year. Valentine, Wooden, and Brooks will all probably be better their second year.
In short, on paper, the #10 scoring defense....the one that stuffed the league's #1 offense in the playoffs... has already improved.
If you look back over LaFleur's tenure, we're almost bulletproof when we score 25 or more points. Since 2019, we're 40-4 when we score 25 or more. SO, IMO, I'd be trying to put an offense on the field that can hit 25 regularly.
We only hit 25 six times last year in 19 games. During LaFleur's tenure, we hit 25 about 50% of the time.
Bitternotsour
April 19, 2024 at 12:33 pm
MATH
Lionhearted
April 19, 2024 at 09:52 am
A couple things a CLEARLY cheesehead homer takes and very off-base in this article.
Sam laporta already has an all pro under his belt, it is VERY unlikely that either of the packers tight ends ever come close to the level player Laporta already is.
The Lions draft produced more top end quality talent, the packers drafted for quantity.
Drafting Michael penix at 29 would be beyond idiotic for the lions when they already have a great pocket passer in Goff, who throws the best ball I the division. They already have Hendon hooker as a developmental player, it is much more likely they focus on defense or offensive line with that pick
If you actaully pay attention to Lions football it’s clear who had the best draft class, and has the best team in this division
Bitternotsour
April 19, 2024 at 10:44 am
bless your heart - but truly, pride cometh before the fall
Leatherhead
April 19, 2024 at 12:09 pm
Oh goody.
I agree with this Lions fan. They shouldn't draft a QB until they need one, because that's the Lions way. I mean, Goff is almost 30, and the list of QBs who've won a Super Bowl after 30 if they didin't win one before 30 is an astonishingly short list And I'll just ignore the fact that they have the worst defense in the division, as they showed against SF.
I'll focus instead on Laporta and Kraft/Musgrave. Last season, Laporta got 86 receptions on 123 targets. and Kraft/Musgrave got 65 on 86 targets. The Packers TEs aren't going to get as many receptions as the Lions because we don't throw to them as much, because we have actual good WRs.
I hope you enjoyed your trip to the Championship game. You'll be able to tell your grandkids about it someday.
Megatron. Barry Sanders. Donkeykong Suh. Hockenson. Stafford. You've had good drafts in the past. What's different about now?
Bitternotsour
April 19, 2024 at 12:34 pm
HISTORY
justjan
April 20, 2024 at 05:25 pm
lol
MilkCan44
April 19, 2024 at 09:37 pm
I totally agree with Lionhearted - I challenge Mr. Price to find a Tight End who was more productive in his first year than Sam LaPorta. When I see Musgrave and Kraft finding the holes in the defense that LaPorta finds and they catch everything, I'll change my mind.