After Further Review: Packers vs. Jaguars

Ross will provide a few observations every Monday afternoon following a Packers game based on a few viewings of the condensed version of the game on NFL GamePass.  While this might not be the All-22 camera deep dive that might be more "educational", it should provide a conversation point for the rest of the week

There was much ado about nothing.  There were certainly three very prominent story lines that didn't produce much in the way of a payoff on sunday.  Lane Taylor played well replacing Josh Sitton.  More importantly there wasn't a noticeable drop off in pass protection.  Rodgers took one sack, and that sack was kinda on him.  The young inside linebackers made plays too.  The future is now at that position group.  Ryan and Martinez passed their first test, and one would hope that their chemistry would only improve.  The run defense that Bob McGinn and others opined was going to be so poor was downright dominant, despite playing nickel for a majority of the game.

Ladarius Gunter has a certain set of skills, and being a nickel back is not one of them.  Gunter is a good, useful NFL player, but his strength is playing off coverage on the boundary, not being forced to use his agility to defend slot receivers.  His inability to cover Julius Thomas was really unfortunate, too.  Gunter, as a big corner, is just the kind of player that you'd want to cover a tight end.  It didn't work out that way.  I'd much rather see the Packers use Rollins or Randall inside and give Gunter the role that Davon House used to have.  Strictly an outside corner.

Speaking of cornerbacks, there are better days ahead for Quentin Rollins.  This was not a great day for "Q".  Rollins was replaced in this game by Gunter for a stretch, and was clearly beaten by Julius Thomas for a touchdown.  Replacing Casey Hayward is important for this team.  Rollins did not play well, but still possesses tremendous potential, and has fine work on film from his rookie season. Also, it was Joe Thomas with the INT, but Rollins made that play.

The offense can be better, much better.  The numbers are probably worse than they should have been.  The pass interference committed against Jared Cook was a big gainer, as would have been the long drop by Davante Adams.  A lot of people are still concerned about separation and yards per pass play, but there were guys open, specifically Jared Cook.  A lot.  The staff will make adjustments.  The talent is still there.  Jordy Nelson will get more comfortable.

Would you like to know what a really good combo block by a center looks like? Watch what JC Tretter does on Lacy's long run that starts at the 0:55 mark of the 3rd quarter.  Tretter struggled at times on Sunday, but his block on this play was almost flawless.  He took a chip at the Jaguars DT, passed him off to Lane Taylor and then mauled Paul Posluzny.  It was a thing of beauty.

Boy is Letroy Guion better at nose.  Letroy Guion is a much better player when BJ Raji isn't on the team.  I'm not really sure how all of that works, but the drop in his play a season ago and his performance on Sunday sure paint a specific picture.  Guion and fellow defensive line-mate Mike Daniels were unreal.

The defense has to get better after making a big play.  Part of this is Capers, but part of it is attitude, too.  Green Bay was quite a bit better than Jacksonville yesterday.  That game should not have been competitive until the 0:14 mark of the fourth quarter.  Over and over and over again the defense failed on 3rd and long and on 4th down.  Opposing offenses need to pay when they get off schedule.  Forcing offenses off schedule by playing excellent run defense is kind of a new concept for the Packers D.  They need to handle it better.

Nick Perry and Datone Jones are good palyers.  They've both taken a step forward.

Damarious Randall is good. HaHa Clinton-Dix is good. That's all I have to say about that.

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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem 

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Comments (52)

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Idiot Fan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 03:43 pm

"Over and over and over again the defense failed on 3rd and long"

This has been frustratingly true for at least five years.

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chugwater's picture

September 12, 2016 at 07:38 pm

I thought we gave up too many yards on first down. They had favorable sticks for much of the game.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 13, 2016 at 04:51 am

I do not see how conversion of 3rd down at 26% (4 of 15) is not good. I think it is awesome. Packers had problem with 4th down on last Sunday, but those 75% should be different if referees place ball just half od inch shorter on 2 occasions - suddenly, they would not have 4 opportunities for 4th down conversion. I think referees was quite generous to Jags on ball position.

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Idiot Fan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 03:44 pm

Also, I was happy to see the run D not be an issue, but I'm withholding my excitement for another week. That JAX oline is quite bad. MIN will be a different animal.

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Bearmeat's picture

September 12, 2016 at 04:08 pm

Yep.

Although, Min was TERRIBLE against TEN yesterday. And unlike JAX, TEN truly does suck across the board.

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Ross Uglem's picture

September 12, 2016 at 06:52 pm

"MIN will be a different animal." Not really. MIN has a putrid offensive line, especially at the tackle position.

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Idiot Fan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 06:56 pm

Fair enough, though I guess I was thinking more about AP being better than whoever that was backing up Ivory.

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Otto's picture

September 12, 2016 at 03:45 pm

Watch what JC Tretter does on Lacy's long run that starts at the 0:55 mark of the 3rd quarter.

For those of us who don't have the ability to record games, could you share a link?

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 12, 2016 at 04:42 pm

Wouldn't it be nice if the NFL would let you buy what you wanted to watch with game pass? It's 100$ if you watch 1 second of one game or all of 256.

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Since'61's picture

September 12, 2016 at 03:46 pm

Ross - nice job! I would add one point to your fine review. The Packers need to get better offensively when they start a drive deep in their own territory. They need to get a few first downs at least to help out their defense. This has been an issue for this offense for a few seasons now. The OL needs to execute more effectively in the shadow of their own goal post. We need to be able to run it out of there at least some of the time. Thanks, Since '61

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lecko's picture

September 12, 2016 at 03:49 pm

Anybody else noticed how on the Rodgers TD run Davon House backed off at the last moment and didnt hit Rodgers at all ? Both were still in bounds and it would be a legal play, We can only be happy that he decided as he did.

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phillythedane's picture

September 13, 2016 at 12:05 pm

I did see that. Rodgers was going to score, and House could have punished him for it. I'd say that's good karma working for Rodgers. Give respect to get respect.

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gr7070's picture

September 12, 2016 at 03:56 pm

It amazes me how much concern there is over run defense. Stopping the run is so insignificant compared to stopping pass plays.

The average NFL run play is a net negative result for the offense. That's the *average* run play.

While we don't want to be at the bottom of run defense; It's all about pass defense.

I am concerned about this teams offense though. Doesn't mean those concerns can't be removed, but there are very legitimate potential issues specifically with regard to yards per attempt- one of the very most important offensive stats.

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John Galt III's picture

September 12, 2016 at 07:15 pm

I agree with you totally. Cobb was amazing, but no deep threats at all.

Not much over the middle.

We can improve in these areas a lot - early in the season so easy adjustments will be coming. Once we fix those issues - offense will be explosive.

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chugwater's picture

September 12, 2016 at 07:44 pm

Where did you find the stat that the *average* NFL run play is a net negative? The Packers pounded out 95 yards on the gound yesterday. What team in the league rushed for -96?

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Idiot Fan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 08:27 pm

I think what gr is saying is that the average pass play is more yards than the average running play, so every time they run, they're settling for fewer yards than they theoretically could have gotten passing. So it's not a gross loss of yardage, but a net loss relative to passing. At least that's how I take it.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 13, 2016 at 04:56 am

Well even with your explanation, decision to run the ball on that temepraturtes seems logical to me. Keep your D on side line, while their big mans are sweating and be more and more fatigue. With pass play, your O will n ot kill the clock!

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Norm's picture

September 12, 2016 at 07:49 pm

"The average NFL run play is a net negative result for the offense. That's the *average* run play."

How did you figure that? Sure maybe a few QB's with very few rushing attempts have negative YPC, but no full time RB's have anywhere near a negative YPC average so how can the overall average be anywhere near a net negative? Without looking it up I'd say it's probably close to 3.5 YPC. Even if you factor in penalties I'm sure it's not close to negative, and I would bet pass plays have more penalties than rushing plays on average.

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gr7070's picture

September 12, 2016 at 10:16 pm

It's not about negative yardage. Start reading numberFire.

The below is great evidence for run defense being far from as important as just about everything else.

https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/8791/establishing-the-run-is-a-recipe-...

"The only aspect of the game that has mattered less than offensive rushing efficiency over the past NFL 16 seasons has been stopping the run."

The below addresses average rushing.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/8226/nfl-teams-need-to-stop-drafting...

2000 0.00. -0.06
2001 -0.02 -0.06
2002 0.02 -0.03
2003 -0.01 -0.03
2004 0.03 -0.03
2005 0.01 -0.03
2006 0.01 -0.02
2007 0.02 -0.03
2008 0.04 -0.01
2009 0.02 -0.03
2010 0.05 -0.04
2011 0.01 -0.02
2012 0.06 -0.03
2013 0.07 -0.03
2014 0.10 -0.03
2015 0.11 -0.04

First column is the year. Second is the Net Expected Points NEP per pass play. Third is NEP per rush.

Every single year the last 16 years NEP per rush is negative. On average after each run the team is in a worse position to score points.

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gr7070's picture

September 12, 2016 at 10:25 pm

This whole article is a must read for any intelligent football fan.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

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Bedrock's picture

September 12, 2016 at 11:23 pm

Correlation does not mean causation.

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gr7070's picture

September 12, 2016 at 11:53 pm

I sincerely hope you came away with something more worthy of posting from those articles than that.

Horse meet water.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 13, 2016 at 05:03 am

Do they have data what is time needed to score with pass and with run. Do they have data how many 3 and outs are produced during pass game only and during running game only. Do they have data what is the efficiancy of pass play w/o running back on the field?
There is much more variables than just pass or run. I hate when people using stats to make conclusion without covering all variables. In that case stat is big shit compared to great shit when you use all possible variables...

Btw, did you watch SF vs Rams? You want to tell me that Rams passing game was better part of their offense? Obviously you need to have capable QB and capable WR/TE/RB top have good passing game!

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gr7070's picture

September 13, 2016 at 06:59 am

They're not suggesting to give up the run. Everything I read from modern analytics, including the two sites I linked to, profess the importance of keeping a D off balance. Rushing is important; just not, usually, for the reasons most people think.

The Rams is a hilarious example to use when discussing how modern football works. Using the Rams as an example to disprove modern football theory is laughable. There isn't a worse, more antiquated football mind than Jeff Fisher.

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phillythedane's picture

September 13, 2016 at 12:28 pm

That counts me out.

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phillythedane's picture

September 13, 2016 at 12:30 pm

that is, as an intelligent football fan.

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gr7070's picture

September 13, 2016 at 04:34 pm

An intelligent fan can certainly choose to not read these sites. My statement wasnt an indictment.

The point that i failed to get across was that the many intelligent Packers fans tend to enjoy these sites once they've been introduced.

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EdsLaces's picture

September 12, 2016 at 04:19 pm

Guion played well as did Our young bucks at MLB. With shields out I agree that Gunter should be on the outside and slide Rollins inside where he belongs....or Hyde either or. Ha Ha played very aggressive yesterday...love it. Can't wait to see Cook make a big play next week...that is all...

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Handsback's picture

September 12, 2016 at 04:21 pm

The Jags have a very fast and young defense. When they play well togther....it's going to be like playing Seattle. Their offense is good now. So if they want it bad enough...they can be very tough.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

September 12, 2016 at 04:27 pm

On 4th & 14, why was Burnett playing so close? Does Burnett have the hips to be successful in that role on passing downs?

After watching that play again, I noticed Brice was one of the Deep Safeties. Probably because Shields was out. I hope that personnel is supposed to be Burnett where Brice played, Hyde where Burnett played and Shields rotates with any of the other CBs.

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RCPackerFan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 09:27 pm

I'm actually ok if they start playing Brice more on defense. He has speed and great tackling ability. He maybe a really good one to pair with Clinton-Dix deep. That would create a lot of range back deep.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

September 12, 2016 at 10:01 pm

I like his skill set too. I can see him stealing some of Banjo's (105) Defensive snaps later on in the season though.

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lucky953's picture

September 13, 2016 at 02:14 am

Good point. He didn't get his hips turned, which led him to grab. obvious PI in the open field on 4th & 14. Thought Burnett was rusty. Missed a tackle near the LOS, was slow in coverage. Should be better next week.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 12, 2016 at 04:44 pm

"Speaking of cornerbacks, there are better days ahead for Quentin Rollins."

He came back with a nice play at the end of the game. I'm glad he got to leave on a good note.

"The offense can be better, much better."

I bet Rodgers is going to notice a lot of yards left on the field by not throwing to Cook. He's going to want to throw him the ball at Minny.

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NickPerry's picture

September 12, 2016 at 06:43 pm

Thank you Jeremy, he made a couple nice plays at the end of the game. I'm not so sure any of the Packers CB's don't give up that TD to Thomas. It was a perfect pass and catch made by a player 6 inches taller and 50 pounds bigger. Rollins will learn a lot from this game and come back a better player because of it.

Rodgers did leave a lot of yards on the field, just like last year. I hope that gets cleaned up. Nelson broke wide open in the back of the end zone as soon as Rodgers started moving to his right on his TD run, but it would have been a tougher throw across his body.

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chugwater's picture

September 12, 2016 at 08:00 pm

I'm also bullish on the a Packer offense given the number of yards and points we left on the field. The third and goal run will get cleaned up. The juggling catch by Cobb is an easy stroll into the end zone if Rodgers doesn't throw it so high. More options are available for Cook.

Lots of opportunity...and we scored 27 points even with the miscues!

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RCPackerFan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 09:14 pm

That throw to Cobb still bothers me. If Rodgers hits him on the numbers it's a TD. That's definitely a throw I'm sure Rodgers would like back.

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NickPerry's picture

September 13, 2016 at 05:39 am

@both RC and Chugwater....Ugh!!! I still can't believe that throw. Cobb should have walked in the end zone. All weekend and again on Monday I watched QB's who aren't supposed to be near Rodgers level make throws to wide open receivers and hit them in stride. Rodgers is STILL either under or overthrowing his receivers, much like last year. Then he makes a play like the one to Adams which was spectacular enough to be a possible "Play of the Year". I think that gets better as the season moves along, it has to right?

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NashvilleCheesehead's picture

September 13, 2016 at 05:50 am

Sure hope so!! He couldn't suck enough on my fantasy team. I'll give him one more week....

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Lphill's picture

September 12, 2016 at 05:53 pm

I guess the only way to make Packer fans happy is if the Packers win 50 to 0 every game . Seems like that's what most expect , somebody said you win the Lombardi trophy for winning the game not for how you played it.

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Oppy's picture

September 12, 2016 at 09:13 pm

Flashbacks? Hardly so.
I'll give you that they're rusty.
Pack serves pudding soon.

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

September 12, 2016 at 10:19 pm

Oppy trying hard.
But Haiku not a big strength.
Leave it to us pros.

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Oppy's picture

September 13, 2016 at 05:47 pm

My prose, effortless
A winsome brush on canvas
Packers are awesome

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Oppy's picture

September 12, 2016 at 06:44 pm

It's not the Guion is better without Raji, it's that Guion gets to play instead of Raji.

Raji never had much in the way of dependable anchor.

Can't wait for Pennel to get back in the mix.. Maybe even see Brian Price promoted by the end of the season.

Both players are beasts.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 12, 2016 at 08:19 pm

I like Prices size / strength / motor combo. I also like that I saw Trgovac sitting next to him a lot on the sidelines.

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RCPackerFan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 09:15 pm

I thought that Ringo looked good when he was on the field.

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dobber's picture

September 13, 2016 at 05:53 am

I was pleasantly surprised, too. I thought he looked pretty active.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

September 12, 2016 at 08:16 pm

Just getting out of Florida with a win, was an accomplishment for GB. They are better than what they showed.

Don't take next week's game for granted. It's a Tough game. Like it or not, we need to score more than 27 pt's a game.

Beating Jacksonville was bigger than most fans think. Next week is GB's 2ond game in a row on the road. That's never a Good thing. Against MINN makes it worse.

GB will get everyone's Best. They better come ready to play.
LVT

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RCPackerFan's picture

September 12, 2016 at 09:24 pm

There were some experts that were picking Jaguars to pull the upset.

This was not a give me game. I would not be surprised if the Jaguars were to make the playoffs by the end of the year.

I agree that the Packers will always get everyone's best. I believe they are favored to win every game this year.

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Turophile's picture

September 13, 2016 at 04:27 am

Exactly.

I picked Jacksonville to give the Packers their only loss this year (with the week 2 game, away to the Vikes, as the next toughest one). It would have been so easy for the Pack to have started this year 0-2.

As MM says "Good teams find a way to win close games". He also said that each year is a different deal when it comes to the locker room vibe. Green Bay certainly has youth and good talent, which feeds into that, I'm expecting a very good overall feel, that reporters should pick up on, when they get in there to interview players.

Barring a ton of injuries (there will always be some), especially to key players, I look forward to watching this ever-young team mature over the season.

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gr7070's picture

September 13, 2016 at 04:44 pm

FWIW the math would disagree with MM. Good teams find a way to win games by a greater number of points than average teams and below do.

Lucky teams tend to win very close games about as often a good teams do.

To expound anecdotally games that finish with a close score are effected more by lucky bounces, subjective calls, etc. Thus luck has a great affect on these games than good teams do that would generally win by larger margins, in a vacuum.

Humans (especially sports fans) tend to want an explanation beyond luck- such as "good teams find a way to win". It makes us feel good; it's assuring. The reality is luck has a, sometimes, significant effect on the world around us.

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lucky953's picture

September 13, 2016 at 02:19 am

Can't replicate game reps against a talented team determined to win, despite what Rodgers said during preseason. Like many posters, I think they get better as season goes along. Red zone botches kept the game close. That was a problem last year. Didn't go to Cook once down there. I didn't get that.

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