Aaron Rodgers' Age Necessitates Urgency
After years of the patient draft-and-develop approach, the Packers must now maximize what's left of the Rodgers era.
By mkelley
With the beginning of training camp officially firing the starter’s pistol on the 2018 season, spirits are high and expectations even higher.
And while the Packers are focused on setting and achieving the loftiest of goals—and rightfully so, with the talent on the roster—we as fans should take the time to appreciate the many blessings sent down from on high by the football gods, especially Aaron Rodgers.
It can’t last forever.
Rodgers will turn 35 this season, and while Tom Brady is redefining longevity by playing in his age-41 season, the Packers’ signal caller has undoubtedly entered the final third of his career. In many fans’ minds, this stirs up feelings of urgency, with the possibility of a solitary title won during the reign of the most efficient passer in NFL history.
Some fans have been itchy about the situation for years now, calling for former general manager Ted Thompson to be fired for “wasting Rodgers’ prime.” That kind of talk always seemed reactionary to me, but the time has finally come to manage this team with a more short-term focus.
In the seven seasons since the Packers last won the Super Bowl, the Packers have made two NFC Championship Game appearances and had two seasons lost to Rodgers’ injuries, so I still don’t subscribe to the narrative that Thompson has wasted the generational quarterback’s prime years of performance. And while sustained success is always the goal, it appears Green Bay has about a five-year window to help Rodgers bring home the Lombardi Trophy one more time—at least.
Teams in other sports are perfectly willing to accept windows for success, and their executives manage the team differently within a championship window than in lean years. The parity of the NFL, its relatively early trade deadline and hard salary cap make it a different animal, but there are subtle ways the Packers could maximize their championship window in 2018.
Promoting Brian Gutekunst to GM and finally replacing longtime defensive coordinator Dom Capers with Mike Pettine might very well show that the team is ready for a change in philosophy. Even last year’s signings of veterans Martellus Bennett and Ahmad Brooks might have signaled a gradually evolving mindset at 1265 Lombardi Avenue, regardless of results.
While we’ll never know if Gutekunst would have re-signed free agent defensive backs Micah Hyde and Casey Hayward, it does appear that the first-year GM has lived up to his promise of at least investigating every avenue regarding improving the roster. I’m not sure Thompson would have brought in Jimmy Graham to change the composition of the tight end group, and it’s likely that Gutekunst still isn’t done tinkering.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if, after assessing the depth and young talent in training camp, the Packers looked for a few low-cost additions at offensive line, wide receiver or outside linebacker. While developing young players is a great asset—and something the Packers have done as well as anyone in the NFL—it makes sense to maximize the current team, as long as No. 12 is still under center.
There are a few who think Rodgers’ decline has already begun, even declaring that he’s been surpassed by the likes of Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. And, not to give too much credence to a vocal minority, there are a few numbers that show Rodgers’ powers may be waning ever-so-slightly.
In Rodgers’ career, he has led the league twice (2011 and 2014) in net yards per attempt, which accounts for lost yardage on sacks, along with all pass attempts. Basically, it’s the average expected yards when Mike McCarthy calls a pass play. In his first seven years as the Packers’ starter, Rodgers averaged a lethal 7.29 net yards per attempt, good enough to be top-five in any given season and damn impressive over such a long run.
But Rodgers’ net YPA the last three seasons is just 6.04. That number is below last year’s league average and about what the Titans posted in 2017 with Marcus Mariota and Matt Cassell starting.
Obviously, Rodgers is on a different planet than those two. He protects the ball to a historic degree, so even if his general production dips, the Packers should still have a chance to win most games.
And some of this talk is a consequence of Rodgers’ own excellence, comparing him to the impossibly high bar he set in 2011, when he may have played the position better than anyone ever. It’s possible that he has, in fact, regressed a bit, but he’s still easily among the NFL’s best and capable of a third MVP season. That’s a testament to just how other-worldly that 2011 season was.
But it may be the case now that Rodgers, assuming he is merely human, will need a touch more help to bring home the Lombardi Trophy. After last year’s whimper of a season without Rodgers, a majority of fans now believe McCarthy needs a successful 2018 campaign to keep his head coaching job, perhaps another sign of the franchise’s urgency.
With last year as a reminder of just how bleak an NFL season can be without a franchise quarterback, we should cherish these last few years of Rodgers, while still demanding a worthy team around him.
We can only hope that Gutekunst continues to be aggressive in supplementing a roster that shouldn’t be far away—if at all—from championship contention.
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Matt Kelley is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter via @hustleandheart1.
Comments (36)
Lare
July 27, 2018 at 05:28 pm
While I'd agree with a sense of urgency to build a competitive team around Rodgers while he's here, I would suggest a sense of caution on signing him to a huge contract extension. He's coming off an injury to his throwing shoulder, and has two years left on his current contract.
IMO, let him play out this year and if he has a great season and stays healthy reward him with a 2-3 year contract extension next offseason. And if Rodgers is willing to sign a conventional contract that makes him the highest paid player in the history of the NFL, I'm sure the Packers would agree to that tomorrow.
That would still allow them to add the pieces around him that can lead to a championship caliber team.
Bearmeat
July 27, 2018 at 05:41 pm
Rodgers isn't worse than he was in 2011, his defense has been, and his WRs definitely are. And there absolutely is a sense of urgency to win one in the next three years.
ShanghaiKid
July 27, 2018 at 06:17 pm
I think most of Packers Nation would agree with the sentiments of this article. Fact of the matter is the front office hasn’t done enough. How the defense can be a sieve for 8 years after all the top draft capital spent still blows me away.
The 2015 draft was a critical failure. If they hit on two corners, they’re allowed to retool the offense for the next two years. And can maybe address pass rush. They’re still recovering from not having adequate replacements ready for Lang, Sitton, Cook, Nelson and others. Rodgers has had little to work with on his side of the ball since 2014. He can’t carry the franchise forever, he needs help like Brady has gotten in the back half of his career.
Lare
July 27, 2018 at 06:48 pm
Good point, I think most would agree that Thompson should have been replaced 2-3 years ago.
Oppy
July 27, 2018 at 11:31 pm
Sitton was effectively replaced seamlessly by Lane Taylor.
While Lang's long term successor hasn't been identified yet (some think McCray has a chance to be the guy), the Packers haven't had a major issue at RG thus far with their stop-gaps. For what it's worth, going into last year the OL depth looked like a joke, but with all the injuries they suffered and the number of starts taken by young, unproven players who sometimes had to play positions they never played before.. they battled and competed and showed more grit and talent than I would have expected. There are young linemen on the Packers who have a good chance to develop.
I have a feeling the offensive production from the WR group as a whole is going to be fine sans-Nelson, but only time will tell.
I agree TE has been a carousel since Finley left, and we still don't have a long-term replacement for him.
ShanghaiKid
July 27, 2018 at 06:17 pm
.
PatrickGB
July 27, 2018 at 06:53 pm
You may be right.
TarynsEyes
July 27, 2018 at 07:42 pm
There is no question that Rodgers is still the talent he has ever been and hopefully wiser in not taking certain hits or any at all.
The issue for the Packers has been;
Predictability
Relentless in not being relentless when leading
Defensive play
Defensive players
Scheme
Draft
Injuries
FA acquisition
Resigning or not signing the right players
Solve a few of these issues and a SB is at hand.
Demon
July 27, 2018 at 08:39 pm
Can we please continue with TT's slow boat from China roster building plan? Who needs probowlers when there are so many UDFA's available?
Thanks Ted
ShanghaiKid
July 27, 2018 at 09:07 pm
I understand creating competition at the bottom of the roster, but avoiding FA like it’s the plague? Unforgivable.
dobber
July 28, 2018 at 09:20 am
I would argue that you can do it if you're an exceptional drafter. TT, especially since about 2010, was not.
Since'61
July 27, 2018 at 10:36 pm
A sense of urgency has been long overdue for this team.
Not enough was done during the TT years after 2010 to build a solid team around Rodgers.
The defense never recovered from the losses of Jenkins and Collins in 2011. Tramon suffered a nerve injury which affected his play for two seasons and maybe more. Then we let Woodson go to FA after the 2012 season. Since then CM3 has tailed off and our defensive draft picks have been poor for the most part.
Datone Jones, Nick Perry, Randall and Rollins all ealry picks which have given the Packers virtually nothing.
Even early offensive picks like Derrick Sherrod and Richard Rodgers never worked out. Nothing close to game break skill player for far too long. Very little use of FAs to fill in numerous gaps at Safety, TE, RB, CB, ILB, now OLB as well. Lacy had 2 good seasons and then ate himself into oblivion and so on.
We'll never know why or what happened to all the cap money TT saved over the years, when a few good signings could have carried us to the SB.
Gute is off to a good start in trying to right the ship. Assuming the Packers return to the playoffs with a double digit win season it will be interesting to see how Gute does drafting in a 24+ draft position compared with TT.
Until I see it I don't think Rodgers abilities have declined. He has been the victim of being surrounded by average to below average players with a few exceptions on both sides of the ball. Besides Rodgers on offense we've had Bakh, Jordy, and Cobb. No TE for years. Average RBs for the most part. Lang and Sitton now gone. There hasn't been much there.
On defense there has been Daniels and not much else with CM3 tailing off. Sam Shields was effective until concussions ended his career. Hopefully Clark and the young CBs come on strong. Maybe HHCD returns to the team. We'll see.
New coaches, new attitudes, new approaches and less injuries can change things quickly and Rodgers gets some support for his remaining seasons in Green Bay.
Time will tell. Thanks, Since '61
Thegreatreynoldo
July 27, 2018 at 11:37 pm
The aDOT (Average Depth of Target) numbers for Driver and Jennings were much better than Nelson/Cobb. Cobb's never were good. Jordy's never were as good as Jennings, but Nelson had a much better catch rate than those two. Jordy's aDOT has fallen off in 2016 and 2017. Davante has a mediocre aDOT. Let's hope he (or someone) can be a credible deep threat.
Oppy
July 27, 2018 at 11:54 pm
Are we certain that the Average depth of target numbers are a reflection of the WR running the routes and not the QB making the passes?
I don't imply I know the answer, but I think the automatic assumption that a dwindling aDOT reflects WR play and not considering it may actually be a product of a change in QB play may be short sighted.
Oppy
July 28, 2018 at 12:01 am
Let me clarify I bit here. Could it be that a more seasoned, wiser, and increasingly cautious Rodgers is less apt to throw deep than a younger, more aggressive Rodgers was?
My eyes and gut have sensed a far more guarded passing attack from Aaron Rodgers as the years have come and gone. I feel as though Rodgers was at his apex (as far as aggressively pushing the ball down the field goes) in 2010, 2011. Since then, it seems as though he has been less likely to take the deep shots with regularity unless there's a "free play" situation.
This would explain Jennings having a higher aDOT than Nelson. I don't think there is a question that Nelson was a better deep threat WR than Greg Jennings.
dobber
July 28, 2018 at 09:23 am
I think the question is: has the aDOT, league wide, changed from 2011 to 2017, and how much? Nelson's aDOT might be lower because offenses, as a whole, might be throwing underneath more. I certainly may be wrong, but that might be the question to answer.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 28, 2018 at 01:33 pm
Here is a link for an app that attempts to measure receiver efficiency. The App only goes back to 2009. It gives aDOT scores for receivers and much more. I can't find the league average for each season over time. aDOT alone doesn't tell you whether a receiver is good or bad: it does tell you something about what they can do or how they were used. aDot scores correlate with players who are deep threats pretty well. Top aDot scores for 2017 (600 yard min):
DeSean Jackson 16.1; Brandin Cooks 15.4, Marvin Jones 15.2, Marquise Goodwin 14.7, Martavis Bryant 14.5, Sammy Watkins 14.4, Tyrell Williams 14.3, Julio Jones 14.2, Mike Wallace 13.5, Antonio Brown 13.4, AJ Green 13.4, DeAndre Hopkins 12.9, T.Y. Hilton 12.8, Baldwin 12.7, Funchess 12.7, Ginn 12.1, Amari Cooper 11.6, Dez Bryant 11.4,....
There are guys like JJ Nelson (17.2 aDOT) who didn't have enough yards.
aDOT GB receivers (2016 numbers in parenthesis):
Davante had a 9.8 (11.9), Cobb a 6.4 (6.4), Nelson 11.0 (12.2), Allison 7.7 (13.4), Bennett 6.9, Trevor Davis 9.9 (9.0), Clark 16.7, Janis 21.4 (10.4). Note that airyards' efficiency ranking (which take more than aDOT into consideration) are in the order above: so best WR in 2017: Adams, then Cobb, Nelson, Allison, Bennett, etc. In 2016, the app ranks Nelson, Adams, Cobb, Allison, Janis, Davis best to least.
http://airyards.com/tables.html
Thegreatreynoldo
July 28, 2018 at 02:05 pm
Top receiver efficiency GB in 2009 aDot in Parenthesis:
Driver (13.5), Jennings (13.2), Finley (7.8), Jones (10.3), Nelson (12.1)
GB receivers 2010:
Jennings (14.0), James Jones (10.9), Driver (10.8), Nelson (10.4), Finley (10.1), Pre-injury Quarless (8.4), Donald Lee (2.3)
GB receivers 2011:
Nelson (12.5 - ranked 7th best WR), Jennings (11.8 - 27th best), Finley (11.9), Jones (12.1 - 76th best WR), Driver (9.4), Cobb (9.7 - good for a slot guy, but his numbers have tumbled down since 2015, into the six area for 2016, 2017).
Using this link, I can look up individuals and get their numbers for their career since 2009 and get other info:
Michael Thomas (NO) merely an 8.3, 9.40.
Calvin Johnson ranges from 13.0 to 15.0 (can’t go back prior to 2009).
Randy Moss 14.6 in 2009, his last full year
DeSean Jackson: 3 seasons > 15, one > 16, none less than 13.10.
Vincent Jackson: good grief: 17.0, 16.90, 15.70, 14.50, bad full year of 12.70.
Terrell Owens: 15.2 and last year, 12.50.
[Can't add another link with airyards in it. Use the link above, click on Players, then on receiver efficiency.]
GBPDAN1
July 28, 2018 at 04:29 am
I agree, Since 61. And I put it all on TT. He basically failed to assemble a quality team around Rodgers since the SB in 2010, especially on defense. To be fair, drafting mostly at the end of the Rds is not ideal, but he still made a lot of bad choices in the early Rds and was bad at drafting Defensive players overall.
What was equally frustrating was his resistance to cover up his draft shortcomings with FAs. Free agency is not an ideal way to build a roster, but, it's a tool to help that other champion teams used way more then Ted.
I can't express enough how happy I am that TT is no longer GM! It's at the least 5 years overdue !
NickPerry
July 28, 2018 at 04:54 am
Nice post Since'61....Not much more to add.
Since'61
July 28, 2018 at 06:46 am
Thanks Nick. Since '61
Charvid
July 28, 2018 at 06:10 am
So here's a survey question. At what point does BG look to find the eventual long term replacement for Rodgers. We have been so fortunate...my children have never known anything but Favre or Rodgers in their entire lifetimes. Does anyone seriously think it could be Kizer? We know for sure it isn't Hundley. Even if AR plays to 40, that is 5 yrs away, At what point do we find the new guy?
JonathanSpader
July 28, 2018 at 07:23 am
Within the next 5 years. I do think Kizer has the potential to be a franchise quarterback. He has the physical attributes and had a ton of success in college. Whether or not he actually does become one is hard to say. He'll need 2 to 3 years to refine his footwork, throwing mechanic, and especially the mental part of his game.
For as bad as Hundley is on the mental part of his game, (recognizing defenses, progressions, etc) his footwork and release are way better than they were when he was in college. With 2 1st round draft picks the Packers have the trade ammo to draft a QB in this year's draft if there's a prospect they really like. The question is do they grab a pass rusher and maximize Rodger's window or grab what they think could be the QB of the future?
TarynsEyes
July 28, 2018 at 10:44 am
The next franchise QB is not on the roster at this moment and I would venture that QB will be vigorously looked for in two years, three at max. This will have Rodgers as the unquestioned leader and then having his replacement getting 2-3 years of growth, a la Rodgers and Favre, and Rodgers either retiring or bringing again another drama to GB, with Rodgers wearing another jersey after this extension most likely.
If the team feels as secure with a prospect as like with Rodgers in 05' and the move made in 08', how can anyone think it isn't repeated. It's set up perfectly if one looks.
Look at the QB's coming to college or are one year in now...there's the nugget for GB, if they have the ability in the FO to find and know it.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 28, 2018 at 02:09 pm
Ideally, 3, probably 4 years from now. Real world? AR retires, we suck and get a high draft pick, take QB.
Charvid
July 28, 2018 at 06:10 am
So here's a survey question. At what point does BG look to find the eventual long term replacement for Rodgers. We have been so fortunate...my children have never known anything but Favre or Rodgers in their entire lifetimes. Does anyone seriously think it could be Kizer? We know for sure it isn't Hundley. Even if AR plays to 40, that is 5 yrs away, At what point do we find the new guy?
4thand1
July 28, 2018 at 07:15 am
Would anyone here be happy with one more SB over the next 5 years? Assuming AR is extended until until he is 40.
TarynsEyes
July 28, 2018 at 10:46 am
I'd be happier but it wouldn't erase what should have been...3-4.
croatpackfan
July 28, 2018 at 07:43 am
Only sense of urgency I feel from Packers fans. And that is goooood. Because when you start to do the things (or job, or whatever) under the sense of urgency I may bet on 100 mil $ that you'll fail...
4thand1
July 28, 2018 at 08:17 am
I'll bet you a 100 mil but won't pay you if I lose. You won't pay me if I win because I'll bet you 10 dollars that neither one of us has a 100 million dollars.
Since'61
July 28, 2018 at 10:01 am
Croat - I respectfully disagree. It is possible and often necessary to work with a sense of urgency if the appropriate planning and priority setting has been done. I would contend that plenty of planning went into the Packers draft choices and FA signings by Gute. Not to mention the coaching changes which were made.
Now the sense of urgency is required to prepare this team for the season and building a sense of urgency in the players, especially on the defense, to learn their roles and make plays. For far too long this team has relied on the offense, specifically Aaron Rodgers to build a big lead and/or engineer miraculous comebacks. The defense has played like it's OK to give up scores because the offense will outscore our opponents.
This is why I had wanted Capers fired since 2013. His defense played with poor technique and poor attitude. I am expecting that this will change and the defense will stop giving away leads and/or collapsing during the 4th quarter. We will see.
BTW, it takes no more or less effort to work with a sense of urgency than without one. The difference is that the results will change, dramatically for the better, assuming that proper priorities have been set and proper focus is maintained on the identified priorities.
I have always brought a sense of urgency to my business everyday and it has worked for me. If someone doesn't bring a sense of urgency to our customers they won't be with us for very long. Mistakes in trying to complete a project will happen and can be corrected, but time lost in failing to respond or in a lackadaisical approach can never be made up.
On the football field a lackadaisical approach results in poor technique, poor attitude and poor results, which I for one have enough of from the Packers defense since 2010. You did not watch Lombardi's Packers play. That team played every down with a sense of urgency and be assured that on those few occasions when they did not Lombardi made them very aware of it very loudly and very clearly. If you can't have urgency in your professional career then what are you doing there?
Thanks, Since '61
TarynsEyes
July 28, 2018 at 10:57 am
You sound as though time is eternal and it is, but only in eternity measure. In life and doings, time should always be an urgency with varying levels as to quest.
DD
July 28, 2018 at 08:30 am
Rodgers still has the tools, skills, and attitude to get er done. As far as the rest of the players it's up in the air. Every team has young professionals who play hard. It boils down to a fee plays or so and the defense making stops on third down as usual. When Rodgers leaves it will be very sad. Another Rodgers, Farve? Don't bet on that! We've been fortunate to have seen two great QB's. As far as the Pack preparing and grooming another? Doubtful.
Since'61
July 28, 2018 at 10:11 am
DD - Remembering what it was like during the years between Bart Starr and Brett Favre makes me dread the thought of Aaron Rodgers leaving the Packers someday. Especially in this pass happy NFL where QB play dramatically affects a team's chances towards winning or losing.
We did have a few seasons of good QB play from Lynne Dickey but he was not close to Favre or Rodgers, plus the Packers defense was inconsistent at best in those days. A third HOF/10 best ever QB, what are the odds? It would be nice to have about a $10K bet down on it if it happens though. Thanks, Since '61
TarynsEyes
July 28, 2018 at 11:02 am
I cannot help but wonder how many QB's that would have been great had the NFL hadn't invested so much energy into those who can run and do so little else good over the last 18-20 years.
Since'61
July 28, 2018 at 07:49 pm
Taryn - an excellent comment. All the RG3s and Kaepernicks have proven is that if you can't throw effectively from the pocket you are not really an NFL QB. All the running QBs give up and run on too many plays, take too many hits and end up with prematurely shortened careers. It's a waste for the team and the player. Thanks, Since '61