Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Melancholy Me

The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.

This is always the most difficult Polluted Mindset to write - when the season is over and there's no "last week's game" to dissect. You're tasked with watching other teams advance in the playoffs (ouch - it hurt to type that) and in this year's case, you're left with a melancholy "what could have been" feeling. The word "melancholy" is defined as a feeling of pensive sadness. While I'm not walking around moping and depressed, oh, if only the Packers had converted their red zone chances and caught those "sure" interceptions like the Lions did last Sunday. Even though the Lions eventually blew it as a result of some 49ers lucky breaks, receiver drops and coaching decisions, if the Packers had taken advantage of their opportunities, we would have had another game to talk about today. But alas, as I wrote last week, I look at the 2023 season as a far more generous gift than we were ever expecting. Moving on...

Future is now - One theme I've been hearing all week is how the Packers' Super Bowl window is open and the future is now. Really? I'd say there is still a lot of work to be done and in my mind, the 2025 season has always been the Super Bowl target. I get that people are getting caught up with the exuberance around the Packers surprise playoff appearance, but there's still a lot of work to be done with this roster and presently no cap space to do it with. I can't claim to be an expert on other team's rosters, but just based on watching a lot of football this year, is there a worse Safety group in the league than what the Packers have? Is there a worse tackling team in the league than the Packers? Injuries have taken their toll on De'Vondre Campbell, Eric Stokes and possibly Jaire Alexander (more data needed there). It's beyond ironic that most of my worries center around the defense, where the Packers have invested heavily with first round draft capital.

And then there's Special Teams. My paisano Rich Bisaccia has not delivered on the promise he represented upon coming to the Packers. On offense, it looks much better. Love is our guy, the receivers and tight ends are very good, but the OL will be in need of reinforcements with several likely departures. And does that include David Bakhtiari? I think it absolutely should, and it may be the only way they can find the money to keep Aaron Jones, who would provide a bigger impact than David would. So you see, for me 2024 will be a year for reinforcing the roster and clearing out cap space so that there will be some free agent money for the 2025 season, where Gutey can look to replicate his 2019 offseason when he brought in the Smiths, Billy Turner and Adrian Amos. Then we make a run at it.

Football players - Yes, I know this is an old guy take, but man, the Packers need more guys that are pure football players over purely elite athletes. Of course, combine those two things and you've got an All-Pro. I've recently decided my favorite opposing player to watch is Fred Warner. The guy plays every down like it's his last and the joy he exhibits in being out there and making plays is clear and evident. And by by the way, his RAS score was a 9.68, with only size measurables bringing that score down. For fun, I went back and watched a video of his Combine workout and the way he moves in the coverage drills, you would think he's a defensive back. Really impressive. You can watch the video here, if you like.

Recently, the Packers have made a concerted effort to get faster and more athletic with their draft choices. Some fall into the category of "football players" - guys that would still do it if the salaries were a fraction of what they are. Guys that are team-first and love the game of football. Guys that live for the contact. Who are some recent draft picks (last three years) I would put in this category? Let's see... Tucker Kraft for sure. Karl Brooks seems like another, but we need to see more of him. Lukas Van Ness has the attitude, but like Rashan Gary was, is raw and needs to learn the proper techniques. Zach Tom - stick him anywhere and he'll win his one-on-ones. Dontayvion WIcks is willing to do it all and is fearless.Go block Nick Bosa? No problem. Let me know who else you would put into that category.

Tackling - Speaking of football players, how about we find some who can tackle? Guys that actually use their arms to wrap up and bring ball carriers down instead of throwing shoulders at legs? This is such a deficiency with the Packers defense it begs the question - are we drafting players who don't know how to tackle or is this how they's been instructed by the defensive coaches? You can't practice tackling anymore in the NFL, so I think the emphasis has to be on players who have gotten the proper instruction prior to their entry to the NFL.

New Defensive Coordinator - Speaking of coaches, Matt LaFleur's DC search has brought up some interesting candidates, all of whom except one (Brandon Staley) have never been more than a position coach. This creates a bit of a conundrum in my brain. On the one had, a new fresh face might connect with the players more and bring fresher "modern" ideas and schemes to the table. On the other hand, there is no way to know how they will handle the pressure of calling plays in game situations. That last part scares me, but I'm willing to give them a year to work that out in preparation for our Super Bowl winning 2025 season (as I wrote about above).  Go ahead, yell at me for this Polluted mindset. Also, I want the hire to be someone who isn't going to bolt for a head coach job after a year, so all in all, I guess I'm fully on the side of hiring a newer face.

 

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__________________________

"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP

__________________________

19 points
 

Comments (113)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NickPerry's picture

January 31, 2024 at 06:51 am

The Future is now... I guess I'm as guilty as anyone, getting myself all hyped up for the 2024 season and the SB possibilities. But Al brought up an excellent point, this team has holes...Quite a few of them. The Safety position is a mess and I'm not so sure CB is that much better. Alexanders tweet (or whatever it was) thanking Packers fans for the last 6 years was strange. Maybe they trade him, maybe he stays. Add in what might Stokes be or not be and CB becomes a HUGE need. The same can be said about ILB.

On offense they have to take at least two RBs. I'd use one of those two 3rd round selections for sure if Brooks the RB from Texas was still there. I also like Davis out of Kentucky but I want to watch the Senior Bowl and Combine before really picking "My Guys".

Football Players...I've been saying this for years. Give me a "Football Player" over a guy who's great in spandex everytime. What good is a guy who runs 4.28 if he can't catch, tackle, or do any of that other Football Stuff. One thing is certain, he won't be in spandex on Sundays. 4.48 would be fine with me if he's a "Player".

Tackling... YES PLEASE...I would like the Packers to have some of THAT!

New DC... Since the search began I keep Googling Packers DC Search to see who LaFleur is looking at and may have hired. I'm glad he's looking, really looking at different guys and a few of them are Ravens. BUT, I'd still like to see him make a decision fairly soon so the new DC and LaFleur can fill out the staff. Personally I think you have to replace just about everyone from Barry's staff. Let's not get left with the leftovers. We've had enough of them of previous staffs.

8 points
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Cheezehead72's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:05 am

Good comments again. I am not going to provide names for DC but we need to hire an established DC that runs a base 3-4 because that is what we are built for but is willing to change it up as needed. We need a DC that will take chances and run an explosive defense that gets after the QB.

I have always wanted the team to pick up football players. I want guys that want to be out there. The Packers have done this throughout their history and has had success. If you look at the players on the team the players that seem to have the biggest impacts are the ones that came out of no where and love to play the game. This is one of the reasons I do not own a jersey. There is no player above the team. I am a Packers fan.

Yes the future is now but it is also ongoing. So getting back to the DC. I have no problem with the Packers hiring a DC that might become a HC in 2 or 3 years because I would hope that DC could bring in position coaches that could develop into a DC to replace him.

4 points
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lecko's picture

January 31, 2024 at 04:22 pm

great line "I do not own a jersey".
Me neither. But I do have a T-shirt just with G. I root for whole team

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Guam's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:01 am

NP: I think every team has holes to fill. Free agency and the salary cap insures that even "complete teams" will lose some players in the off season and have holes to fill come draft day. The Packers may have a few more holes than the best teams, but they are better off than about three quarters of the league. I like the Packer's chances next year.

6 points
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Razer's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:30 am

...On offense they have to take at least two RBs...

Totally agree Nick. Aside from Aaron Jones, Wilson is the only guy I would keep. Could you imagine if Jones had gone down with an injury late in the season? This offense would have been pass only.

3 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:20 am

"this team has holes..."

Yes this team has holes. But what team doesn't?
The Chiefs are in the super bowl and they have flaws. The 49ers are in the super bowl and they have flaws. No team is flawless.

For the Packers, yes they have flaws and holes to fill and they have to upgrade some positions. But they can quickly change that with a good draft and a key free agent signing. For example. They can completely change the S room with a good draft pick and a good free agent signing. I also like Johnson coming into year 2. If they draft an impact safety, and sign someone, this position can quickly change.
CB completely changes is Stokes comes back and is healthy. Valentine in year 2 could be really good as well. But they need to draft more for that position.

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croatpackfan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:55 am

"BUT, I'd still like to see him make a decision fairly soon so the new DC and LaFleur can fill out the staff. Personally I think you have to replace just about everyone from Barry's staff. Let's not get left with the leftovers. We've had enough of them of previous staffs."

While I agree with you on most of your post, on this (see above) I do not agree completely with you.

As I can remember correctly, Montgomery is on Packers (DL position coach) for decade or so. And, by my opinion he is still doing good job. I agree with you that some positions needs new coaches, but I can not recolect that any of those D position coaches were brought by Barry. At least, nobody reported any of them came under Barry request.

1 points
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Tundraboy's picture

January 31, 2024 at 04:00 pm

Thanks NP, you covered everything I am thinking. My typing today, is like our tackling, almost non existent. Lots of holes yes but we are heading in the right direction. Seems or at least I hope they are waiting to talk to some of the KC staff.

0 points
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Minniman's picture

January 31, 2024 at 06:25 pm

Window, schmindow!!!

Your first line summed it up - the future is NOW!

A team gets momentum and belief, and away they go, SB glory!!

Expectation is a toxic burden without self-belief.

0 points
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Packers0808's picture

January 31, 2024 at 06:55 am

My feeling on the next DC is simple Hire the coach, not the scheme.

4 points
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Since'61's picture

January 31, 2024 at 06:59 am

Great article Al and very consistent with my own thoughts on where the Packer are and with 2025 being the season when the Packers make their Super Bowl run.

I've been posting for years, probably a decade now, that the Packers need better tacklers on defense. The OL needs reinforcements as you correctly point out.
Even if the Packers are able to retain Aaron Jones, which they should< they need reinforcements behind him at RB.

As for the defense the focus needs to be on the Safety position and then on OLB with the potential loss of P. Smith and Engabare's recovery from a late season torn ACL. Another 1 or 2 solid tackling CBs would help as well.

Bottom line is that there is plenty of work for the Packers to do before their roster reaches a Championship caliber status. IMO they FA money to achieve that and that won't happen until 2025. Then sign the missing pieces and go for it in 2025. The new Dc will be a crucial part of making it happen in 2025. GPG!
Thanks, Since '61

10 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:27 am

"plenty of work for the Lakers to do before their roster reaches a Championship caliber"

HA! Is that a Freudian slip, or a spell check? The Lakers do need some help, so it works. Maybe you're jumping from site to site too much. LOL

0 points
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Since&#039;61's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:23 am

T7 -LOL. Definitely spell check. I don't follow the NBA at all so there is no reason for me to have the Lakers on my mind. thanks for pointing out the error. I have corrected it. Thanks, Since '61

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T7Steve's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:13 pm

I thought that only happened to me!

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Coldworld's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:06 am

My thoughts on Bissacia are somewhat different than most. While I’d hoped for statistically better, if one removes the Carlson factor, I do think we have come a long way. I no longer have that instinctive fear every time we set out to kick off or punt or on returns and we’ve actually managed to disrupt others with blocks as well as returns.

If I am being honest I’d have taken what we had on STs this season in a heartbeat if offered that in 2021. Now I want to see further growth, but I’m thankful for what we have received.

As to 2024, major success requires no sophomore slumps from O skill players, a perceptive hire at DC, and Gute to draft as well on D this year as he did offensively last year (which to some extent requires the DC hire to be acute). I realize that that’s a tall order, but not impossible.

We should contend this year, but I accept that 2025 gives us some real opportunities to add FA talent to polish as well as coming into the peak for those currently on the roster.

To thrive then we need to have an alternative to Jones ready and get LaFleur confident he can protect. A sneaky requirement this year, if indeed Jones can be retained. To really contend thid year, Jones’ return seems essential.

7 points
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Razer's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:42 am

...Gute to draft as well on D this year as he did offensively last year...

This will be essential if we hope for this team to reach the next level. I don't have a lot of confidence in Gutekunst to get the defense right if he employs the same philosophy that he has in previous drafts. The front office seems stuck on edge rushers, CBs and freak athletes. We are chronically weak at safety, LB and D-line. We tend to bargain shop for these positions - we don't value them. Time to find some solid football players at the grinder positions.

...To really contend thid year, Jones’ return seems essential...

TRUTH

1 points
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dobber's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:11 am

I tend to agree on Bisaccia--we tend to use these "special teams ratings" thingys that take most aspects into a single number, whereas we split hairs on offensive and defensive performances. The fact that Carlson had low conversion rates (compared to Crosby who was better statistically in 2022), Whelan was only so-so, and teams made it harder for Nixon to break big returns suppressed the ranking altogether. Punt coverage units weren't good, but that might have a lot to do with going from an experienced punter who was good on hang-times to a punter who had a tendency to out-kick his coverage (especially early in the year).

In general, they're better than they were pre-Bisaccia.

6 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:20 am

Overall I'm fine with Bissacia. This year he had a rookie kicker and punter. So there are going to be ups and downs with them. But to me the biggest issue was with the LS. There were so many snaps on kick attempts that were simply not good. I still don't know how they got that kick off against the 49ers when the ball was on the ground.
So that is definitely something they need to fix.

4 points
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GB@Germany's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:11 am

Hi Al,

I`m with you on most points.
To realy contend next season, a lot of things need to go the right way.
The schedule will be much tougher and the team had plenty of lucky moments ths year (e.g. recovered fumbles).
In my view, also Jordan, as great as his development was, needs to take the next step to be great. Red zone, late game decissions, running himself in the required situations all can still improve.
Regarding safties I`m less critical of Savage. The defense was much betterwith him giving orders. With the right DC he might still be able to help.
Big need is CB, especially slot and ILB.

GPG and I hope, they play a game in London...

0 points
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3
TKWorldWide's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:12 am

Great minds, Al!

I’d put Quay Walker into the “football player” category. He’s shown meanness on plenty of occasions and this year he showed more discipline as well. (No more bs after the play.)

Tackling! You can’t practice it PLUS it’s much harder at the NFL level. Those sloppy “throw a shoulder” attempts probably worked most of the time in college due to its practitioners being men among boys. But in the NFL, there ain’t no “boys”.

I get the need for speed. If a linebacker runs a 4.8, I don’t care how much he loves the game or how instinctive he is. He will be victimized mercilessly in coverage. On the other hand, a high RAS guy with no skills will be exposed as well. All of which adds up to the challenge of drafting and developing.

Maybe another problem with a high RAS is…coaches! Maybe there’s a mindset of “gimme a freak athlete and I’ll mold him/coach him into an All-Pro”. And maybe that works some of the time! But in the 4th qtr of a playoff game…

I think we’re in for another VERY INTERESTING off-season. Buckle up!

4 points
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Guam's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:50 am

"If a linebacker runs a 4.8, I don't care how much he loves the game or how instinctive he is. He will be victimized mercilessly in coverage."

Perfect comment TKWW. I like the direction Gute is taking with high RAS scores. You can't teach speed, but you can teach guys how to tackle or other technical aspects of the game. That process may take time and may not always happen, but lack of speed always kills. I'll take the RAS guys.

2 points
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Razer's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:49 am

...I’d put Quay Walker into the “football player” category...

I don't know that I would agree with you on this. He's fast and he's physical BUT he is slow to recognize the play. He is part of the poor run defend of this defense. He might benefit from a smart LB who can make the call and point him in the right direction. His high draft selection was a puzzler to me.

5 points
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GregC's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:15 am

Are there stats on missed tackles? I did a search and couldn't find anything. I wonder if the Packers miss more tackles than most teams or if it just seems that way because we're fans.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:21 am

I’ve been looking for this for a while without success. I know it’s out there somewhere. I know Seattle had almost twice as many missed tackles as Dallas late in the season (124 by Seattle). In early November PFF had Dallas leading the league with an 8% missed tackle rate. The stat is tracked, I just can’t find it clearly stated.

According to Stat Muse, for what it’s worth, the Packers actually made the 10th most tackles in 2023. They have the Bears with the least at 692. We are credited with 740. The Colts had the most with 797.

Over 17 games that’s about 43 1/2 tackles a game by Packers players. At Dallas’ November missed rate, the lowest in the league would have missed about 3 1/2 a game, so Seattle would have been missing about 7.

PFF had us missing 13 in the Broncos game in October and 16 against Pittsburg, so we presumably were much better in others.

2 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:32 pm

I heard someone say this year they had a coach that said if you have 10 or more missed tackles in a game you're probably going to lose. Obviously there's a correlation between missed tackles and explosive plays but I haven't ever seen anyone tie them together with hard numbers.

0 points
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Tundraboy's picture

January 31, 2024 at 04:14 pm

It has to be that we bunch our missed tackles! Like during one particularly backbreaking play or series. It just has to be. Lol

0 points
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JerseyAl's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:11 am

I know there are "yards gained after contact" stats for ball carriers. I would assume there should be "yards allowed after contact" stats as well.

4 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:29 pm

I was trying to find yards after contact for RBs in the '24 draft and couldn't. I read that Corom had 2.7 YAC which seems low for a top college back to me but I could be wrong.

0 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:27 pm

I found one a couple weeks ago. The Packers were somewhere in the 10-12 range for most missed tackles. A majority of the teams were in a range of 80-100 missed tackles on the year. The Cowboys had the fewest at 55 and the Seahawks the most with 112.

0 points
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T7Steve's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:21 am

I complain about these missed tackles all the time. When I think about how they have to tackle now, it's already set up to be a half miss. I was a great tackler while in school and taught to drive face first through the ball carrier. Now they have 30 things to worry about while they get in position and try to hit with their shoulder. No wonder they get hurt all the time. The NFL is so worried about the stars on offense that they're sacrificing the safety and quality of play by the defenders.

5 points
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MooPack's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:55 am

Exactly. My coach said if you play not to get hurt, you sacrifice form, and get hurt. The NFL has it wrong.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:04 am

I agree from my own experience, personal and team mates. It is better to control the impact. The one thing I’d add is that most avoidable injuries come from bad angles or positioning which force the body not only to extend but restrict it’s instinctive ability to brace.

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:00 pm

I was also a very good hs tackler. Very poor RAS score pushed me to the academic department.
I was trained to tackle the waist.
Very hard for ball carriers to juke you if your focus and aim point is the waist.
See it, wrap it and drive it to the ground as I recall.
GPG!

1 points
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dobber's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:13 am

These guys are taught how to tackle in college, but many learn at the same time that ball carriers mostly fall down if you hit them hard. We all learn bad habits, especially if they're rewarded. It's hard to unlearn them.

3 points
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stockholder's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:42 am

The Packers 2023 season was a gift.
And the surprise play-off appearance.
Has me wondering if the future isn’t short lived.

The cap is the crystal ball.
While you brought up the safeties, injuries, and
A new coach.
The limbo of several players is still important!
It's a measurement of how we got there.
And Gute only needs to add to the depth!
More than decide who goes.

Nixon said it best. After a clutch win.
"This team can beat anybody.”
They showed their heart. --
Only wanting a Home and to be remembered.

" it’s more about the reinforcements now.”
And let’s just be honest about Love.
His 1st year might be a phenomenon.
Unless he gets that wall in front of him.

And before we look at Joe Barry’s failures
In the secondary.
That DL; still is at the bottom of NFL stats.

-3 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:51 am

The only DL measures I can find have our DL rated right in the middle of the pack. Please share your source.

4 points
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stockholder's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:15 am

Without splitting hairs.
Or using pff stats, scheme, or player ratings.
The cbs sports packer page list:
Packers at 28th against the "rush" 128.3 this year.
Pass is 11th overall 17.

0 points
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2
jannes bjornson's picture

January 31, 2024 at 11:32 am

Mach 'R -ee:
#25 Kam Kinchens S
#40 Q Mitchell CB
(doubtful he falls from rd one).
#65 McKinley Jackson DT
#88 Cole Bishop S
#91 Delmar Glaze OT
#101 Blake Corum RB
#126 Brandon Coleman OG
#167 Zion Fetui Wash. Edge
#179 Mohamed Kamara Edge
#203 Austin Reed QB
#215 Kimari Vidal Troy RB
#242 Cody Schrader RB

1 points
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stockholder's picture

January 31, 2024 at 06:46 pm

#25 Jackson Powers - Johnson C/G Ore.
Remington award winner
# 41 Kris Abrams -Draine CB
# 58 Sweat---. NT Texas
Outland award Winner
#88 Payton Wilson ILB NC st.
#91 Johnny Wilson WR FS
# 122 Trey Taylor S USAF
Thorpe Award winner.
#167 Jaylon Wright RB Tenn.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 01, 2024 at 10:37 am

Sweat will be gone by mid-40s. Fuaga can stay at OT. He should move 2025 picks to add another #one, or # two pick and rebuild the secondary. I really want T'vondre Sweat on the Pack to plug t the middle. Taylor will spend time as an USAF Officer, but I would put a #4 on him, if he's gets out of rd three.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:21 am

There is something about.
The way you express.
Your ideas which is.
Kind of Hard to follow.
Maybe I am.
The only One?

11 points
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stockholder's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:20 am

Deeper thought is required.
I carry a G rating

-4 points
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HawkPacker's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:29 am

No you aren't the only one.

I have been thinking that it is some type of poetry?

2 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:36 pm

I think he repeatedly bumped his head at some point. Or often fell asleep in English class and skipped the punctuation portions altogether.

0 points
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EskyBrian's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:48 am

Polluted. 😋

1 points
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mrtundra's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:51 am

I'm not really good with people saying we have a 2024 SB window, either. I also think a 2025 window is much more reasonable and allows more time for our team to grow. Let's take care of business, in our division, next season and move on from there. GO PACK, GO!!!

0 points
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packerbackerjim's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:02 am

I would like an older face, Zimmerman or Martendale, but otherwise I’m on board with you Al. Poor tackling has been one of my major pet peeves, throwing shoulders ends up with DBs having shoulder injuries and the carrier bounces off for more yards in most cases. How about drafting guys who have shown they can and do tackle. And as for coaching decisions, Campbell and MLF share a penchant for eschewing FG attempts when situationally appropriate, ie, in the first half, and going up by multiple scores. The hell with identity, give me wins.

2 points
3
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packerbackerjim's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:36 am

Zimmer, not Dylan. Damn autocorrect.

0 points
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CanPackFan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:14 am

I also agree with u that more FGs in risky situations us not a bad call IF we had a reliable kicker...

-1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:20 pm

What is your observation on lon g snapper is what I would like to know... If you even noticed something about him...

Like snaps that slide through the grass/turf, or fly over the holder head etc...

1 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:34 pm

my observation was that they sailed toward the holders right shoulder. that is purely subjective.

1 points
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barutanseijin's picture

January 31, 2024 at 03:12 pm

Orzech was wild all season.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:39 pm

Older DCs for the most part being older ideas that have already been figured out and exploited. The Fangio system that was all the rage 3-4 years ago had a tough time of it this year. Zimmer had two bad defenses in a row to end his time in Minnesota.

Time for new blood with fresh ideas and approaches, that's where innovation comes from.

4 points
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Starrbrite's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:04 am

…my emotions are somewhere between what might have been and excitement for the future. Experience tells me you must seize the moment when it’s presented.
It bugged me watching John Lynch along the sideline following the Lions game and in the press box at the end of the Packer’s game. His smart alec smile, projecting, I knew it all the time. Every self respecting 9’r fan knows Purdy’s five dropped INTs are the reason they’re still standing…I hope the Chiefs kick their overrated tails.
As for the offseason— let’s make a move for Budda Baker.
Keeping Bahk seems like an act of futility. I perceive most of us want AJones to return—I do.
Go Packers!!!

3 points
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jont's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:55 am

FWIW, I'm not a real Lynch fan either but for a different reason. Any GM would like a genius if he had the luxury of paying almost a Mr Irrelevant salary to a top ten QB... all that money to pay McCaffry, Kittle, Deebo, Chase Young, .... $40 or $50 mln not spent on a QB goes a long way. Lucky him, but show a little modesty maybe?

2 points
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BruceC1960's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:30 am

Shanahan is considered a genius by many. Not sure I see that. I’m no fan of Lynch either, but there front office is remarkable. I realize Purdy and Aiyuk are cheep. The we’re still able to acquire McCaffery last year and Hargrove & Chase Young this year. Not sure how you are able to do that with these guys on your payroll?
Kittle
Debo
Trent Williams
Fred Warner
Dre Greenlaw
Juszczyk
Arik Armstead
Nick Bosa
Charvarious Ward

3 points
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Starrbrite's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:12 pm

Yes—excellent —and that is my point. What has he done exactly to win (buy) a championship. Sign high priced fa’s and then allow the media to proclaim you’re a team building genius. He’s a peckerhead.

3 points
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Tundraboy's picture

January 31, 2024 at 04:27 pm

Lynch, argh. Bugs me as much as Pete Carrol

1 points
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Razer's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:09 am

Al's theme about "finding football players" is so on point for this team going forward. This is a front office issue that Gutekunst needs to adjust and it starts with him. The Packers have been so enamored with this RAS metric over the last number of years and it is showing up big-time on defense and special teams. Our special teams should be better because of more athletic players but suffers from poor football physicality aka tackling.

The talent gaps on defense need to be addressed or our next DC will be a placeholder for the next DC. Gutekunst needs to get this next draft right on defense or we don't move ahead. The same is true for the Detroit Lions. Both these teams couldn't rely on their defenses to seal the deal.

As for our next DC, I am not looking for a fire and brimstone kind of guy. I think we need a teacher and a coach manager who can get the guys playing a system well. I think we saw that happen on offense and it needs to happen on defense. Enough of 11 guys trying to figure out their assignments in real-time. I am hoping for a true "coordinator" in this hire.

Thanks Al for capturing the essence and the vibe of this time.

0 points
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Tundraboy's picture

January 31, 2024 at 04:31 pm

Exactly why I like KC program guys. Must be Andy influence that makes it palatable but mostly I think his proteges are not as apt to be overrated, like many other famous disciples

1 points
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Packerfansupreme's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:29 am

I like your take on drafting football players as opposed to raw athletes. I hope I never hear RAS score ever again

0 points
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JerseyAl's picture

January 31, 2024 at 08:50 am

Don't misconstrue what I'm saying. You can't draft bad athletes that are "football players." So RAS scores are still important, but they don't always have to be in the "elite" category.

6 points
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Starrbrite's picture

January 31, 2024 at 05:38 pm

Completely agree with this Al.

0 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:04 am

The Future is now -
The Super Bowl window is open. The Packers already beat one of the teams in the Super Bowl and they should have beat the other one. Yes there is work to do on the roster. But it doesn't change the fact that with the current roster, with a first year starting QB, a lot of rookies and 2nd year offensive weapons, we were able to get into the playoffs, beat one of the best teams in the playoffs and nearly beat one that is in the Super Bowl.
Every team has work to do, but our future is extremely bright.
As for needs. Some positions we need to add starters and some we need to add depth. Some of it will be determined with free agency and who they decide to part with and retain. But either way 24 roster construction hasn't begun yet. So we will have to add to the team regardless. Just like every other team in the league.

Football players -
Warner is a great example as a great athlete and great football player. He has range with his speed, but just is great at tackling. But he has such great instincts that gets him into the right position most plays. Packers definitely could use some of these players.

Tackling -
I feel like a new voice in the defensive coaches room could definitely help with tackling. Some just approach it differently.

New Defensive Coordinator -
I am perfectly fine with hiring a guy that hasn't done it before. As long as its the right guy lol. I just want the next DC to be able to lead this defense into the future. I want him to be able to bring multiple looks. Someone that is willing to play forward not backwards. I want an aggressive more attacking mentality on defense. Coaches instill mentality into players. I want the DC to bring that mentality.
I can't wait to see who they bring in.

5 points
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dobber's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:17 am

I agree: this offseason is all about maintaining trajectory and capitalizing on potential.

A year ago, the GIants were up and coming, they rewarded Danny Jones with a big contract, and people were expecting them to continue to ascend. Turned out they were a paper tiger (?). They couldn't handle adversity and they didn't have any depth to handle loss of players to injury. Jones regressed in the games he played. They ended up fire-saling a couple guys that looked like key pieces to grow around and Daboll is lucky he still has a job.

Don't be like the Giants.

Here's a link to what the Packers can accomplish via free agency this year. It's not as dim or scary as some seem to think.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2024/01/31/g...

5 points
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BruceC1960's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:32 am

Will be tough to just maintain won’t it?
Schedule looks tougher?
At some point the league will make adjustment against our offense.

1 points
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dobber's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:24 pm

I do not disagree...

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:39 am

Yes, there are plenty of worse tackling teams. Go to pro-football-reference and check it out for yourself. We are AVERAGE in that regard. But we love to obsess on special teams and defense while our seasons end with offensive failures over and over. 2021? A historically low offensive output. 2022? 16 points on our homefield against the worst defense in the league. 2023? 21 points and a failed final drive when all we needed was a FG.

Fix the offense so that it can go out and score some points and our seasons will last longer.

3 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:03 am

I can only hope that the analysts and professionals in the Packers front office see the same numbers and make the same assessment.

There's some sort of neanderthal thinking that Al exercises that sees a GB missed tackle and assumes that other teams don't miss tackles. It also somehow absolves the failures of the offense in seasons 20-23. We were average in tackling. Room for improvement, absolutely, but the great tackling Ravens are sitting down this weekend just like us. Honest to god, the offense scoring 30 per game will improve the defense, it will force the opponents to take risks, and to make mistakes. GB's turnover numbers will improve with improved offensive production.

MLF's forte is offense. GB needs to reflect that in the end of year stats, particularly scoring.

4 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:35 am

30 is a nice round number, but 30 x17 is 510 and the Cowboys led the league with 509.

The average offense last year scored 21.45 ppg. The Packers, at #12, scored 22.5

The Top 8 scoring offenses all made the playoffs. 11 of the top 13 all made the playoffs. The entire Top 10 of points/drive made the playoffs. This is why I say it's about offense, and points, because the teams that put the most points on the board win the most. A team can be average-ish in many respects, but generally not in this one. If you aren't scoring more than 21, you're not giving yourself a very good chance to win.

Look at the difference one possession could have made in our season.

Week 2, Atlanta. The offense had been cruising and then slammed into the wall and disintegrated in the 4th quarter. We lost by 1.

Week 5, Las Vegas. The offense stumbled their way to 13 points, we lose 17-13

Week 6, Denver. We lose 19-17. Miami had scored 70 on these guys,

Week 10, Pittsburgh. We lose 23-19.

Playoffs, SF We lose 24-21. We had the ball, time on the clock, and timeouts at the end of the game, but couldn't pull it off.

ONE more successful offensive possession would have won all those games. We'd have been 13-4 and getting ready for the Super Bowl.

Some of those unsuccessful possessions ended in missed FGs, which are essentially turnovers and not really a failure of the offense, usually. BUT THE POINT is that this is where we need the strength of the team: Scoring points, probably in the air but with some balance on the ground. That's why we need blocking.

Look at Detroit, a top offense. Are Goff, Amon-Ra, Gibbs, etc. actually just better than our guys, or are they getting more consistent blocking? IMO, that's the answer right there, and why I'm going to be hollering about improving the Oline more than worrying about the defense or special teams.

Score points. Protect the ball. Finish drives (#20 in redzone) . The rest of the stuff won't matter as much if we can do that.

2 points
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HawkPacker's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:35 am

Defense and offense should work hand in hand. If the defense gets the ball back more often, the offense has more chances to score. If the offense has the ball a lot, the defense gets to rest!

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 11:05 am

I don't think that's the way it works. It's not "make-it-take it", it's alternating possessions, and it's what you do with those possessions on offense that determines the winner. Many of the better offenses had fewer possessions than average.

Dallas, the #1 scoring team, had 169 possessions, the fewest of any team.
Green Bay, Philly, SF, KC all had fewer than 179. The average # of possessions is about 186.

It is what you do with the ball on offense that will determine the winner of most games, not the number of times you have it. This year, a 39% drive success rate got you in the playoffs every time. That should be the goal of the Packers organization this offseason: Improve scoring by improving blocking, and add a premium back on Day Two to team with Jones and eventually replace him.

0 points
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dobber's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:23 pm

The last several years under LaF the Packers have been a possession control team...part is monopolizing clock and shortening games, but it's about being more efficient in turning possessions into points than your opponent.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:01 pm

Agreed. But a funny thing....the teams that score the most have the longest drives that cover the most distance and consume the most time. Those Top 10 Scoring Drive teams? They also show up in TOP and yards/drive.

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:08 am

special teams will improve when we fair catch every punt, take a touchback on every kickoff, and kick the ball out of the endzone every time. It might also improve overall team health.

1 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:37 am

"It might also improve overall team health."

As well as overall mental health of Packers' fans.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:46 am

I want to buy you a beer. I've beaten this drum for years and taken many, many downvotes and gratuitous insults over it, but if you finished the season with no turnovers on special teams, and no penalties, and no injuries, and no return yardage against you, you'd be the best special teams in the league.

These are the bottom of the roster guys. Sometimes, we keep guys on the roster who are special teams demons, but when injuries strike, they're out there covering Wondale Robinson in the 4th quarter. IMO, we should keep guys on the roster who can play the position rather than any particular special teams ability. Unless you've got Devin Hester.

The snapper/holder-punter/kickers are your only special teams guys, and they're responsible for putting points on the board, so they have to be able to execute, but the guys on coverage and returns....we can take them out of the equation.

Keep. It. Simple.

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:42 pm

Find me another Devon Hester. That would be great. I'd settle for Desmond Howard. (editors note: both once in a generation returners)

Short of that, fair catches, touchbacks, and as LeotisHarris says, improved mental health.

Hell, I'd even take line drive punts that go out of the end zone every time.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:44 pm

I also recall guys who didn't make the NFL because they "outkicked their coverage". What the hell? Kick it out of the stadium and line it up at the twenty.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:54 pm

You can kick it towards the sidelines. You aren't obligated to give your opponent a chance to have a long, momentum changing return. No chances. Remove all hope.

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:45 pm

Also, I'm a High Life man. A cheap date.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 12:55 pm

I used to drink that when I went to Eau Claire, but I've always come home to Pabst.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:08 pm

I preferred Pabst pony bottles (36 to a case) when I was in high school in the early 70's. Then Old Style, which I would still drink if it were available.

There was a short period in NY when a shipment of Blatz (in bottles) somehow "fell off the truck" and showed up at Russin distributors in Green Point, Brooklyn at $4.99 a case! (late 80's or early 90's). I drank a lot of those...

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

January 31, 2024 at 03:14 pm

When were you a Blugold, LH?

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 01, 2024 at 10:13 am

After I got out of the Army in 1980, I attended Eau Claire for a while. I drank and partied too much, I had a relationship with a girl end badly, and I moved to Texas in August of 1981.

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 01, 2024 at 10:59 am

Small world. Our paths crossed.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 01, 2024 at 01:37 pm

Please tell me you weren't one of the guys at the Stable Saloon lighting farts....

1 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 01, 2024 at 03:20 pm

Was never much of a Stable guy, even though I liked Marshall Tucker and Charlie Daniels. MO was to hit Suburpia or Al's Pizza Wagon after bars closed. McDonalds sometimes, too.

0 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:42 pm

They were definitely on the low side of average.

0 points
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HarryHodag's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:58 am

I think dipping into free agency is the pursuit of fools gold. I've gone full Ted Thompson and this year's Packers performance is a good reason why. In the past free agents were expensive but fit a need. They might still fit a need, but they're only an injury away from wrecking your salary cap as their prices have gone out of sight.(See David Bakhtiari). Thompson shrewdly found a couple of free agents(Charles Woodson) who were affordable and good, but the majority of his efforts were in finding and developing young talent. That is what is needed.

I know the fantasy folks love free agency but the Packers should steer clear unless they can find a cheaper veteran. Owens might be worth another contract at safety. Savage, too, but he's likely to get more money elsewhere. The Packers must draft a starting safety, maybe two but drafting is far superior to a higher-priced vet who is an injury away from retirement.

3 points
4
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 11:14 am

Yeah, but these guys like Amos, ZSmith, PSmith, Campbell, Douglas have played well for us. Ted Thompson didn't say "don't use FA". He said, "you have to be careful in FA". And Gutekunst has been careful, he hasn't blown any real money on a FA and he's found some good player for us that way.

A name I'm hearing is the Cardinals safety, Budda Baker. He's 28, but he might have a couple good year left. He's in his last year with AZ. He's a $15 million drag on AZ's cap and he doesn't appear to fit into their future plans.

In Green Bay, however, he could be some real glue on a team that should be making a run at the Super Bowl the next couple of years.

We could trade for him, then rework his deal to make him fit into our cap. If Rasul Douglas is worth a late 3rd round to Buffalo, I'd have to think Baker is worth more than that.

-1 points
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HarryHodag's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:01 pm

Just checked Over the Cap and his total hit, as I read it, is $18 mill. He's also a UFA in 2025, so the salary would likely be a one-year rental. He's a good player but the cap hit might be too large.

I suspect there would be a more affordable player out there after the upcoming round of cuts likely across the NFL.

One more season of cheap, then wide open for the Super Bowl run in 2025?

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:33 pm

$18 million includes his signing bonus, which we wouldn't be on the hook for and I think we can roll his remaining year into a 3/4 year deal and reduce his cap hit. I'm not interested in a one year rental. There are more affordable guys....like Savage, for example.

We should be wide open for the Super Bowl in 2024. We were one drive away from being in it this year.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:30 pm

one drive from the SB?

How many chickens do you own based upon egg counts?

The GBP were a drive AND an entire game ON THE ROAD away from a SB.

Take off the G&G glasses and lets be realistic around here.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 01, 2024 at 10:10 am

If we had converted our final drive , we'd have beaten SF and I think we'd have beaten the Lions....again...

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:46 pm

Gave up a 106 passer rating in '23. A rookie could do that for a tenth the price. No thank you.

1 points
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NFLfan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:59 am

I am also not impressed with Bissaccia, esp. for 2 M/Yr. MLF will likely keep him this year but I think he should be replaced next year.Special Teams is mediocre @ best. Bissaccia seems to fixate on under-performing players; Carlson, Leavitt, Nixon.
Dennard looks impressive but he has multiple interviews; Rams, Giants, & may become Seahawks DC if McDonald gets the job.
I hope LF makes a decision this week, though I appreciate he aggressively went after 6 guys.

-1 points
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CanPackFan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:04 am

I agree with a lot of what u say Al. Strategically, I believe that 2024 will be a season of further cleaning of salary cap issues. This team must be in a position again to pick up key free agent pieces when needed to make a championship run.

Players - Sure, we have positional gaps and depth gaps. In a relative sense, every team does. But we have a GM that has a good eye for finding players. I do hope that we find some true footballers over freak athletes- especially on the O and D lines. Lastly, we need to find a reliable kicker. A good kicker can win close games for us.

DC - This is a tough one. Some people want a veteran DC versus a positional coach, some want youth. It's probably the most important move of the off season. Does he have to be a 4-3 or a 3-4 guy? For me, I want a smart, aggressive guy. No more passive defense. On the other hand, I don't want to see a D that takes a lot of stupid, roughing calls. An aggressive coaches' style trickles down to players.

Exciting times indeed. GPG

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 31, 2024 at 11:17 am

We came one drive from being in the Super Bowl this year. We should start 2024 with that in mind. I'd hate to waste a season because we're trying to get ourselves in better position for 2025.

2 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 31, 2024 at 09:35 pm

one drive from the SB?

How many chickens do you own based upon egg counts?

The GBP were a drive AND an entire game ON THE ROAD away from a SB.

Take off the G&G glasses and lets be realistic around here.

0 points
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ricky's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:39 am

Very solid commentary. Getting as far as the Packers did, and having SF on the ropes early before letting them off, was painful. Shortly after the loss, a lot of people were pointing fingers at Carlson, as if he alone lost them the game. But, as noted, score TD's instead of FG's; make those interceptions that were right in the hands of the DB's, and the game could be much different. Also, the defensive schemes at the end were terrible. You win as a team, you lose as a team. And speaking of teams, let's not forget that there has to be a natural rhythm between the long snapper, holder and kicker to create the conditions for a successful attempt. Everyone has to be in sync, as three men move in coordination.
Add Quay Walker to a guy who really loves to play football. What he needs is someone who can take him under their wing, gain his trust and help him reach the next level. As far as the Super Bowl prediction goes, and cap space, Love is going to be up for a new contract very quickly. And that is going to be a big investment. And, yes, cut Bakhtiari and pay Jones. But keep in mind, Jones is getting older and more injury prone. The team needs to have someone reliable to share the carries, who can also be effective in the backfield. And there is still the question of who is going to handle the OL, since it seems every year there is always at least one "weak link" that is allowed to play, when it is obvious he is not capable of handling the load.

1 points
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Packerpasty's picture

January 31, 2024 at 10:57 am

The future looks good but it isn't necessarily "now"...still building...many teams could say the future is now, Lions, Ravens, Bills, Dallas, etc...as for drafting football players, yes...look at Van Ness...is he a football player, being drafted up that high?? I dont think a player like that should be a multi year project...he is "starting " to flash some football skill but it better show a whole lot more next year...a really good draft should help, hope they are doing their homework...

1 points
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splitpea1's picture

January 31, 2024 at 11:16 am

I agree with everything here because it's a realistic assessment of where we stand now and what we need to be looking for in order to turn this defense around. It's probably not going to happen overnight with a rebuilt secondary and a change in schemes. Some of these players also have to be taught not only to tackle, but to be more aggressive and technically sound in coverage and run containment.

It also doesn't seem likely that we'll be hiring any distinguished old gents for the DC position, which may or may not be a good thing, I don't know. I'm really not a fan of frequent blitzing, though it seems to work rather well for a couple of teams. So I'm also willing to roll the dice on the most qualified and hard-working up-and-comer; I think it will make a big difference as far as communication and buying into a new approach with a young team.

3 points
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jont's picture

February 01, 2024 at 11:51 am

"distinguished old gents"

Subtle humor is the best humor.

0 points
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Bearmeat's picture

January 31, 2024 at 11:52 am

The back seven is the only real concern to me. Reinforcements are going to be required there, and not just from the draft. I really do think every team in the league has one spot at least, and usually more, that are weak going into any particular season. We absolutely are a Super Bowl contender. Why not? We have the QB, the offense, and the front 7 of the defense, along with one all pro CB. If things break right, why not?

I REALLY want to pursue Jeremy Chinn from CAR at FS in free agency and don't want Bakh back unless it's super cheap, and he won't take that deal. Thanks for the memories, David.

0 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:52 pm

Chinn was PFF's 150th ranked FA and could be fairly cheap. He wasn't very good the last two years after having a pretty good 2021. Could blossom under the right coaches.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:37 pm

Oddly enough the Jets, with their fierce tackling elite defense, ranked No. 1 in 2023 by PFF— are 18-33 in Robert Saleh's three years as head coach. Offense wins football games.

1 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

January 31, 2024 at 01:52 pm

Upon reaching the SB... I am reminded that the most technically difficult part of climbing Mt. Everest is the Hillary Step - a nearly vertical rock face of around 40 ft - located near the summit. So close, yet so hard.

1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

January 31, 2024 at 02:23 pm

Another nice article Al...

Regarding this, just passed season I believe we can say that was more intriguing and succesful that any of us were predict. We saw growth of the young players (rookies, 2nd year players and offense, defense as the unit).

Last game was lost (49ers) because tanks, especially on D were running out heavily in the last 10 minutes of the game. But, I believe offense was also not that fresh, too. That was the last nail that take out last argument MLF was able to find to keep Joe Barry. He had 6 D lineman to rotate and he rarely used Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden, with Clarck playing 88% of snaps. Karl Brooks, by my opinion deserved much more playing time than 25% (16 snaps only) and Wooden played pnly 12% snaps (8 snaps). Both of them played addtional 9 snaps on ST (one blocked FG try by Wooden).

After all, Packers fired Strenght & Conditioning guy.

It was not so excellent game from Jordan Love. But I do not put that on them. We learned that he is calm, pose and in control of the line of schrimage. But from the moment he went out on the field, he looked somewhat distracted. I believe it was his mind that influenced on his calmness. I believe he was to excited with the possibility to lead the Packers to the NFCCG as first "rookie" Packers QB in the last 30 and more years. He looked me little bit nervous. But It might be me...

0 points
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BAMABADGER's picture

January 31, 2024 at 05:32 pm

Unconfirmed.......... Our new D Coordinator is Jeff Hafley the former HC at Boston College?????? 4 year HC record at BC is meh.

1 points
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BAMABADGER's picture

January 31, 2024 at 05:39 pm

From ESPN

"The future of the Packers proved a significant allure to Hafley, as they have a strong young core and bright future. He's a longtime friend of Packers coach Matt LaFleur and long-timer admirer of the Packers franchise."

-1 points
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Packerpasty's picture

January 31, 2024 at 07:26 pm

of course he is...

-1 points
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Peg Leg Packer's picture

February 01, 2024 at 08:45 pm

Hi Al,

Love your column. Now that we know who our new DC is, is that melancholy feeling beginning to fade? It has for me. I love that he is a coach who teaches proper tackling. And it gives me hope that he was integral in Ohio State fielding the best defense in college in
2018. Likewise, Boston College's defense make huge strides after he went there. It's clear he can teach. Contact: Q. Walker has the 'tude and seems unafraid. At Safety, we need to draft "Tiger Green, 2.0". That would make me a happy camper.

~ Greg

0 points
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